Week 3 ML Dogs
- Thread starter ProV1Colt
- Start date
Squirrel
Well-Known Member
Same here, stuff cracks me up lol. No ill will here either, and you're right it's always good to get other perspectives. I get that it's searching datasets for specific parameters, I think I get hung up on the why and what brings people to those parameters to begin with. I assume it starts with seeing a team's specific situation and looking up historicals that align?
Most touts, media, etc. use this kind of stuff all the time but you rarely hear about the opposite side ha. Also, feel like the time period really gets massaged a lot to 'make the case', so instead of the past 10 years, they'll make it 14 years because the previous 4 years fit the scenario.
Just rambling about trends in general, not about any of the stuff here. I'm always trying to figure out what the hell they mean, what things aren't being captured on paper, and if I think they have merit the why behind it and it puts my brain in a pretzel.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Welp....fwiw, the reason I did the specific trend of previous season wins & losses is twofold. 1) they only play once a week so it takes weeks to get a read on how a team is going to do and by the time you do, so have the linesmakers. And 2) in the sport of college football, it is so difficult to make dramatic improvement from one year to the next. How many times have we heard the phrase "it's a process?" It's not like basketball where one great recruiting class and boom you can go from last to first....or in baseball where you can obtain 2 or 3 stud pitchers and dramatically alter your record from one year to the next. I believe how a college football team did in the previous season does bear some weight for the current season esp. in the beginning weeks.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
I think this is what you are asking....the real expert is @mrpickem maybe he can verify what I wrote below.
tA(points) and season=2019 and team=KTKY
t=team
A=Average
points is points scored for
season & team = self-explanatory
You would want to do this for points allowed:
oA(points) and season=2019 and team=KTKY
where the only thing that changed is o for t and o=opponent
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
I liked Ga State 1st half much better but currently my book is not offering it.
BOL to you as well!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I don’t think liberty will win but catching 2 tds I think a lot vs a wku offense I think pretty anemic. Liberty has speed at linebacker which I think should work well against this wku qb who appears to be a better runner than a thrower.
Speaking of duel threat liberty has a auburn transfer who sat last year taking over at qb, we saw what happened to wku defense Last week while worried about the run. Obviously liberty is no ville by any stretch the imagination but hugh freeze team is competitive.
I don’t love the idea wku has a game under their belt and liberty’s game got scratched but laying 14 with a offense I don’t think is very good? Against a team despite having new parts proved capable of putting points up last year and have a more dynamic playmaker at qb now.
Speaking of duel threat liberty has a auburn transfer who sat last year taking over at qb, we saw what happened to wku defense Last week while worried about the run. Obviously liberty is no ville by any stretch the imagination but hugh freeze team is competitive.
I don’t love the idea wku has a game under their belt and liberty’s game got scratched but laying 14 with a offense I don’t think is very good? Against a team despite having new parts proved capable of putting points up last year and have a more dynamic playmaker at qb now.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Hugh Freeze coached teams have gone 5-8 SU (see pic 1) in away games vs. teams that have won at least 4 or more games than they lost in their previous season. That record goes to 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS when I added the fact that the games are in week 3 or less. See pic 2. Clearly, Hugh Freeze has had his teams better prepared to play in this situation earlier in the year than in the later parts of the season.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
I did some queries for Tyson Helton coached teams but he's in his 2nd year so there is not much to go off of. This will be the 1st game where his team has faced a winning program (from previous year) at home in week 3 or less. It is also the 1st time his team has come home off an away loss in week 3 or less. How does his team respond to last week's loss at Loserville? We will not find out until game time but, what I do have confidence in, is Hugh Freeze will have a well-prepared team on the other side of the field.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I took the points. Suppose might as well sprinkle the ml cause so far that the only dog I’ve played today and I don’t expect to have many more.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Ken Niumatalolo and his Navy squad took the worst beating of his coaching career a couple weeks ago losing by more than fitty vs. BYU. In his coaching career, Navy is 0-6 SU in the weeks after losing by 20 or more points. See pic 1 below. However! Only one of those losses came when Navy had an extra week to prepare. See pic 2. I looked it up and, fwiw, Penn St. was in the midst of an 8-4 season in 2012 while Navy was 8-5 and lost in a bowl game to Az. St that year.
Moving along, the previous worse loss for Coach Niumatalolo was greater than 40pts to Cincy in 2018. The week after, they went to UCF and covered a 24 pt spread by 2 touchdowns only losing by 10pts and that was without the benefit of an extra week to prepare. This was also the season UCF went undefeated in the regular season losing to only LSU in their bowl game. See pic 3.
Coach Fritz, in his career, is 0-3 in home games vs. teams that have won more than 8 games than they lost in their previous season. See pic 4. This is the 1st time they are favored in this situation however. His teams are 7-1 SU in home games coming off an away win. See pic 5 however this is the first time this situation has presented itself in weeks 3 or less. See pic 6.
Conclusion: IMHO, I cannot imagine Navy not fielding a better product than what they showed vs. BYU and I also have some doubts that this year's Tulane squad is nearly as good as the UCF squad from 2 years ago. Navy played them 2 TDs better than what the oddsmakers said they would and that was WITHOUT an extra week's rest coming off the worse loss in Coach Niumatalolo's career. Yes, Navy plus the pts. and and little scratch on the ML is worth it. BOL in what you decide Gents!
Moving along, the previous worse loss for Coach Niumatalolo was greater than 40pts to Cincy in 2018. The week after, they went to UCF and covered a 24 pt spread by 2 touchdowns only losing by 10pts and that was without the benefit of an extra week to prepare. This was also the season UCF went undefeated in the regular season losing to only LSU in their bowl game. See pic 3.
Coach Fritz, in his career, is 0-3 in home games vs. teams that have won more than 8 games than they lost in their previous season. See pic 4. This is the 1st time they are favored in this situation however. His teams are 7-1 SU in home games coming off an away win. See pic 5 however this is the first time this situation has presented itself in weeks 3 or less. See pic 6.
Conclusion: IMHO, I cannot imagine Navy not fielding a better product than what they showed vs. BYU and I also have some doubts that this year's Tulane squad is nearly as good as the UCF squad from 2 years ago. Navy played them 2 TDs better than what the oddsmakers said they would and that was WITHOUT an extra week's rest coming off the worse loss in Coach Niumatalolo's career. Yes, Navy plus the pts. and and little scratch on the ML is worth it. BOL in what you decide Gents!
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I do think we see a Navy team that is polar opposite from Labor Day night. The effort, physicality, and passion is going to be there. What does concern me is the Tulane DL vs the Navy OL. I can see Tulane DL winning often there. Plus Navy's QB position is in flux, probably will still see Morris, hopefully they set him up for success this time. I'm not a big Keon Howard fan for Tulane though either. Think they will end up missing McMillan quite a bit.
History tells us the game should be close and human nature tells us Navy was embarrassed nationally and personally so I expect big effort from them.
History tells us the game should be close and human nature tells us Navy was embarrassed nationally and personally so I expect big effort from them.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
Seth Littrell's teams are 7-3 SU in home games in which their opponent won more than 1 game than they lost the previous season. (see pic 1) Me personally, I don't need much more to take a stab at a home dog of >+500 odds. But, here is a bit more to chew on. His teams are 4-2 SU in home games in which the opponent won more than 3 than they lost the previous season. (see pic 2) The lone losses were to UAB last season and La. Tech in 2016. I looked it up and La. Tech finished the 2016 season ranked 71st in total defense. Last year, UAB ranked 8th in total defense while SMU finished 107th in total defense. You all know as well as I do that if you are going to give your opponent a 2 touchdown head start, you better be able to stop them from scoring and I'm not so sure SMU has the D to do that. North Texas at +500 or better odds is worth some lunch money IMHO.
Sonny Dykes' teams 7-4 SU and 3-8 ATS in away games vs. teams who lost more than 3 games than they won the year before. (see pic 3). The lone intrastate opponent was 2 weekends ago @ Texas State. Texas State finished last year ranked 86th in total defense whereas North Texas finished 81st. Texas State played SMU to within a touchdown fwiw.
opcorn:
Sonny Dykes' teams 7-4 SU and 3-8 ATS in away games vs. teams who lost more than 3 games than they won the year before. (see pic 3). The lone intrastate opponent was 2 weekends ago @ Texas State. Texas State finished last year ranked 86th in total defense whereas North Texas finished 81st. Texas State played SMU to within a touchdown fwiw.
opcorn:
inZane
Loving Life on Planet Earth
I love the Middies also, and take note of the weather conditions.
Almost 100% chance of rain with winds in the low teens.
JROCK1966
Big Blue Nation
A Meh type of Saturday....I came oh soo close in hitting the Georgia State game but I had a feeling 1st half would have been a better pic. I did hit Liberty and Navy. Wow....that comeback for Navy was incredible!! However, I had some awful picks in Georgia Tech and North Texas. A capper I used to follow had in-state dogs as one of his criteria and admittedly I forced that one with N.Tx because I had that in-state thing going in the back of my mind. That's the 2nd week I've done that and lost because I was on WKy week 1. I'm done with that criteria.
Looking forward to next week with my Cats @ Auburn....this is THE best Kentucky team in my lifetime. We have the most physical team we've ever had and are going to run the ball down Auburn's throat. Cats ML most certainly will be one of my plays......the only thing that worries me is in our bowl game vs. Va. Tech they had some success with their hurry-up offense. I've noted this on a couple Kentucky boards and got pushed aside basically but I still maintain it is a concern playing D vs. a Gus Malzahn offense.
Looking forward to next week with my Cats @ Auburn....this is THE best Kentucky team in my lifetime. We have the most physical team we've ever had and are going to run the ball down Auburn's throat. Cats ML most certainly will be one of my plays......the only thing that worries me is in our bowl game vs. Va. Tech they had some success with their hurry-up offense. I've noted this on a couple Kentucky boards and got pushed aside basically but I still maintain it is a concern playing D vs. a Gus Malzahn offense.
