Week 3 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

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Staff member
Let’s discuss Week 3 Dogs.

Any trends or observations from last week we could apply to this week?
 
I'm going to look into Middle Tennessee St. Surely they must have had some spirited practices and meetings following their noncompetitive embarrassment at West Point? That alone isn't enough, but I thought they had some ability. I don't know anything about Troy yet.

Houston is an interesting one too since...I'm not sure that line/odds should not be as high as it is? 7.5? Unknowns with Baylor. Unknowns most places, but Houston should have a leg up from last year's staff and personnel evaluations at least.

GT would seem like a possibility? LaTech? Wake?
 
Why is Wake a 2.5 point dog to NCSU? Wrong team is favored here, imo. Clawson is head and shoulders better than Doreen and Wake looked a lot better than I thought they would Saturday.

but then again, it could be a trap since I’m a square.
 
I am psyched for GT and for as solid as their defense looked verse FSU. I fear that the speed and skill and dynamic quarterbacking of Gabriel could overwhelm. I lean over. That total is 60 I noticed. That's a tell to me
 
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Wake has the advantage of having gotten its feet wet already plus Wolfpack have a new OC and a new DC (tho he was promoted from within) introducing a 3-3-5. I also think I can throw a football better than Devin Leary.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Georgia st team /school were pretty squirrelly about this plandemic is something I picked up on early reading AJC and following GT from a distance this summer.
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so they didn’t practice as much or what? Didn’t they start really well last year then were crappy down the stretch? Seem to remember pounding wyo against them in the bowl game. Think it was them, one the easiest bets of bowl season.
 
2daBank said:
so they didn’t practice as much or what? Didn’t they start really well last year then were crappy down the stretch? Seem to remember pounding wyo against them in the bowl game. Think it was them, one the easiest bets of bowl season.
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Yeah their season had it all. They had dynamic vet qb some of the time.

This year I fear that the team may not have its head together. ATL has been hot bed of plandemic/masking and BLM/ACAB bullshit. Georgia St is situated right in the middle of it.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Yeah their season had it all. They had dynamic vet qb some of the time.

This year I fear that the team may not have its head together. ATL has been hot bed of plandemic/masking and BLM bullshit. Georgia St is situated right in the middle of it.
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ugh. Would be a great week for ull to catch a team I like ppl don’t know about. Guess this ain’t the one tho.
 
2daBank said:
ugh. Would be a great week for ull to catch a team I like ppl don’t know about. Guess this ain’t the one tho.
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There starting qb just ruled eligible after initially ruled out cuz of fake covid heart issues.

Georgia State
Head coach: Shawn Elliott (17-26, fourth year)
2019: 7-6 (4-4), 107th in SP+
2020 projection: 6-6 (4-4), 103rd
Five best returning players: LG Shamarious Gilmore, LB Trajan Stephens-McQueen, NG Dontae Wilson, CB Quavian White, RB Destin Coates

First, you draw up the blueprint. Then you build the house. For Shawn Elliott and Georgia State, Aug. 31, 2019, was the blueprint. Against Tennessee in Knoxville, the Panthers fell behind 23-21 early in the fourth quarter but physically dominated down the stretch. Capped by a rugged 22-yard touchdown by quarterback Dan Ellington, they went on a 17-0 run and scored their most high-profile win ever. It was time to sell some T-shirts.

This was Elliott's platonic vision made real. The 46-year-old former Appalachian State and South Carolina offensive line coach wants a physical squad, one that can lean on the run when it needs to, and it had just pushed over an SEC team that, later in the season, turned out to be pretty good.

Getting the house built is a lot harder than drawing up the plans. GSU still has work to do there. Two weeks after the win in Knoxville, the Panthers lost 57-10 at Western Michigan, then suffered a wacky 37-34 loss at Texas State, too. They rebounded, winning four in a row and positioning themselves for their best FBS season ever, but quarterback Dan Ellington tore his ACL in a tie game at ULM. Granted, he showed utterly ridiculous leadership and toughness by continuing to play out the rest of the damn season, but his and GSU's production took an obvious hit, and the Panthers lost four of five to finish 7-6.

With Ellington and 1,400-yard rusher Tra Barnett now gone, it's hard to get a read on what GSU might be capable of in 2020. The Panthers are seasoned in the trenches, returning all-conference candidates in left guard Shamarious Gilmore and center Malik Sumter, and the skill corps is still exciting. Juniors Destin Coates and Seth Paige matched Barnett's per-carry productivity, and last year's top three receivers (Cornelius McCoy, Sam Pinckney and tight end Roger Carter) return. But the depth chart behind Ellington was destitute -- the starter in 2020 will likely be one of four freshmen (three redshirts and an incoming first-year) -- and the Panthers' defense is not nearly disruptive enough to be as small as it is. The average size of the top six returnees up front is 6-1, 253.

Elliott has, in glimpses, proved that Georgia State has the potential you would assume a G5 program based in Atlanta to have. But he's entering his fourth season, and if the quarterback situation is sketchy and the defense (which ranked 122nd in defensive SP+) doesn't improve quite a bit with experience, he could finish 2020 having had as many setback seasons (two) as breakthroughs.


There's still a chance at a big year, though. SP+ projects seven Panther games within a touchdown, including five in a row through the middle of the season. If the new QB -- be it Cornelious Brown (last year's backup), Vandy transfer Jamil Muhammad, Kierston Harvey or incoming Mikele Colasurdo -- exceeds expectations, this could be the breakthrough year we thought 2019 might become last season

.Georgia St. QB cleared to play; no virus issuesGeorgia St. QB cleared to play; no virus issues
 
Having a harder time finding dogs I like this week but it still early! I am intrigued by Gtech but just not sure what happens if ucf has the time to throw noles often had last week?
 
Got down early on the under in ULL 60.5. Favorite bet of the week by far. Think there will be some level of hangover to start offensively. Big win for the program in a physical game and now a early start off travel. I don’t know anything about GA state D, but clones d doesn’t seem nearly as good as some of the more recent years (hawks fan tho so grain of salt) and wasn’t blown away by the offense. ULL defense is nasty and D line holds their ground well even if they don’t get a rush. Could see it being lopsided toward ULL, but I’m on the same page, not looking to get backdoored by the spot.
 
Squirrel said:
Got down early on the under in ULL 60.5. Favorite bet of the week by far. Think there will be some level of hangover to start offensively. Big win for the program in a physical game and now a early start off travel. I don’t know anything about GA state D, but clones d doesn’t seem nearly as good as some of the more recent years (hawks fan tho so grain of salt) and wasn’t blown away by the offense. ULL defense is nasty and D line holds their ground well even if they don’t get a rush. Could see it being lopsided toward ULL, but I’m on the same page, not looking to get backdoored by the spot.
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All I know bout Georgia st d is a not very good Wyoming offense ran all over them in the bowl game, actually passed all over them too which was not a strength of theirs!! I know when I capped it I wasn’t impressed at all with Gst cause wyo-7 i believe was one my fav bets of last year bowl season! No clue how many them guys are back or If there been any changes?
 
I'd say post in the one with more replies and a moderator will combine them or something.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Marshall +160

Isaiah Green is a vet qb. I like him. Marshall might be starting 20 junior/seniors
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I made this exact same mistake. I sat down to watch Eastern Kentucky and Marshall and found out that Isiah Green was no longer on the team. Entered the transfer portal in July.

If it is a veteran QB in Marshall you are looking for you are going to be disappointed. But the guy they have now, a rFr name escapes me, he had a strong showing vs EK. EK appears to be quite bad. But kid showed well. Step up in competition here so I don't know myself what to expect.
 
s--k said:
I made this exact same mistake. I sat down to watch Eastern Kentucky and Marshall and found out that Isiah Green was no longer on the team. Entered the transfer portal in July.

If it is a veteran QB in Marshall you are looking for you are going to be disappointed. But the guy they have now, a rFr name escapes me, he had a strong showing vs EK. EK appears to be quite bad. But kid showed well. Step up in competition here so I don't know myself what to expect.
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Haha
Appreciate you. Thanks
 
One of the trends I like running early in the season is comparisons of records from previous season. This trend in particular has a home team that finished with a -2 differential in record vs. a team that had a -6 differential from the previous season. I added in the result of the previous matchup between the two as well in which the home team won. Lastly added games from week 3 or less and the result is 8-0 SU for the home team. This trend is active on UL-Monroe this Saturday.

ulm-txst.jpg
 
JROCK1966 said:
One of the trends I like running early in the season is comparisons of records from previous season. This trend in particular has a home team that finished with a -2 differential in record vs. a team that had a -6 differential from the previous season. I added in the result of the previous matchup between the two as well in which the home team won. Lastly added games from week 3 or less and the result is 8-0 SU for the home team. This trend is active on UL-Monroe this Saturday.

View attachment 50581
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Good stuff
 
Some conversation earlier about whether or not UL-Laf might have somewhat of a letdown this week. Taking a short look at Coach Napier's history vs. teams that had a less than +2 record differential from the previous season.....you will see the Napier's teams are 5-0 including last week's win over Iowa State. His team has been in this same position 4 previous times. I looked up the week after the Texas State game on Oct. 6, 2018 and they played a home game vs. NMST and covered a -7.5 huge by a 66-38 score. The week after the Nov. 24, 2018 game vs. UL-Mon they traveled to and lost to Appy State by a 30-17 score covering a 17pt spread. After that, we get to the game that concerns me. You see in the pic that UL-Laf won and covered ATS at CSTC and then had to travel to USA. USA had a 2-10 record in 2019 but UL-Laf did not cover that game and barely won SU in the 1st half. So in Napier's 1st two games in this position, they either played at home or played against a winning program in which they were clearly prepared to compete in. But, we see that they just basically ho-hummed through the motions when it was against the away game vs. the lowly USA Jaguars. JMHO here, but given how high the profile was on their win over Iowa State last week, and given how they "should" matchup well and handle Georgia State this week, I do think there is the possibility of a letdown at least during the 1st half of this Saturday's game. Currently I do not see any 1st half ML odds at bookmaker or betonline.

BNAPIER-ULLAF.jpg
 
Home teams who won 5 more games than they lost the previous season, coming off an away loss, and are facing a team that won 3 more games than they lost the previous season are 10-15 SU in SDQL history. See pic 1. Furthermore, when I add in week 3 or less, they are 0-2 SU. See pic 2. These trends are active on Western Kentucky on Saturday.

:popcorn:

wky-lib1.jpg

wky-lib2.jpg
 
Since 2015 week 3 or before, favorites of 10pts or less who had a losing record the previous season, have gone 103-74 SU for a 58% win percentage. It identified two losers last week in Kansas and Texas State. It also identified my Purdue pick last season although not show. Anyway, it is active again this week on the following favs: Duke, Texas State, Troy, NC State, and UTEP.

:popcorn:

trend2.jpg
 
Honest question, how do you go about finding trends this specific? Is an 8% perceived edge on SU worth a bet?

Especially this season, I think there are way too many other variables for trends this specific to be predictive (ex. offseason programs, pandemic, hurricanes, starting play at different times, etc.). Don't disagree that some trends can be a piece of the pie and am not a complete hater, just think it's way too easy to get lost in the noise and you can find a trend on anything if you look hard enough. Again, just an honest question and these aren't insane or anything, but I come across a lot of trends that leave me scratching my head like teams with double revenge with a first-year head coach are 8-3-1 when it's partly cloudy in night games with temperatures below 60 degrees.
 
Squirrel said:
Honest question, how do you go about finding trends this specific? Is an 8% perceived edge on SU worth a bet?

Especially this season, I think there are way too many other variables for trends this specific to be predictive (ex. offseason programs, pandemic, hurricanes, starting play at different times, etc.). Don't disagree that some trends can be a piece of the pie and am not a complete hater, just think it's way too easy to get lost in the noise and you can find a trend on anything if you look hard enough. Again, just an honest question and these aren't insane or anything, but I come across a lot of trends that leave me scratching my head like teams with double revenge with a first-year head coach are 8-3-1 when it's partly cloudy in night games with temperatures below 60 degrees.
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lmao. I love the ones that involve a full moon, partly cloudy skies, if it rained 2 days prior, if head coaches wife is on her period!!! Stuff is priceless!!

before anyone gets offended please know I’m just messing around. I’m in no way suggesting the way I go about things is any better than anyone else! I enjoy reading angles and ideals I’ve never thought of, even ones I totally disagree with or question the merit! Imo more is always better and I also think it helps to understand the way others cap a game!!

far as your question I believe there a way to pop in any perimeters you want. I’m certainly not the guy to tell you a answer tho, im useless with This stuff!!
 
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Did Charlotte/unc get cancelled? If so why?

that really sucks. I was finding so many ways to talk myself into Charlotte!!
 
JRock -- I could use some help on querying:

How do you query for a team's average points the prior year?
 
A couple for you for tonight:

game number = 2 and p:ADW and pP:ats margin > 7 and PRSW > 1
SU: 28-10-0 (12.21, 73.7%)
ATS: 20-13-0 (2.08, 60.6%) avg line: -7.3 +6: 23-9-1 (71.9%) -6: 14-19-0 (42.4%)
O/U: 12-1-0 (18.04, 92.3%) avg total: 52.5 +6: 9-3-1 (75.0%) -6: 13-0-0 (100.0%)

And another one:


game number = 2 and p:ADW and line < 10 and op: D and op:ats margin > 20
SU:6-0-0 (27.17, 100.0%)Teaser Records
ATS:6-0-0 (11.58, 100.0%) avg line: -15.6+6: 6-0-0 (100.0%) -6: 5-1-0 (83.3%)
O/U:2-0-0 (13.00, 100.0%) avg total: 50.0+6: 1-1-0 (50.0%)-6: 2-0-0 (100.0%)
 
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