Week 3 Lookahead Lines/Openers and Discussion

IrieBlue said:
Sorry but what's this trend 'bout??….2-0 RD TEAM VS 2-0 HOME. Just wanna be clear ... thanks
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See above, I was back testing totals and was taken aback at the lack of undefeateds playing in week 3 and the amount of 0-2 vs. 2-0.
I should never have used the word "trend" without finishing. Perhaps a revocation of posting rights is in order.
The trend is onset Alzheimers.

I won't explain where I was headed, as it is something I've played many years .
Good luck this season.
 
Apparently Seattle is 15-0 in September home games under Carroll. That is an amazing stat. I kind of feel like that plus the drop off from Brees to Bridgewater/Hill gives the edge to SEA. There is a 90% chance of rain tomorrow in SEA.
 
a couple weeks tape on zona. bet u they'll be easy to read this week. then open a new chapter next week that we ain't seen yet (division opener).
 
I'm not sure why that LAR line is so short. That team was in the SB last year and the Browns being better is more of a hope than a reality at this point. I'll pay to see the Browns do it.
 
Not sure as to why, but W3 MNF has been the most-profitable week for the under on Monday Night Football; unders have cashed at a rate of 20-10 the L30 seasons. Also head coach Nagy 11-1 to the under when the Bears plate less than 25 runs, with the one over in that situation hitting by half a point. On the flip, Bears/Nagy 7-0 to the over when they score 25+ points by themselves in a football game.

Also, you can't mention Redskins and MNF without saying something about their historical record in that spot. So, there ya' go! You been served (they're overdue in that spot IMO). Gruden 1-8 in that spot since he been coach, allowing 29.0 ppg. The only win was also the only time 'Skins allowed fewer than 19 points on Monday night (a 20-17 overtime win in Dallas). However, if you like the over, hang your hat that Gruden dude, who 8-1 to the over career vs NFC North and 5-0 as the host.
 
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Ya, Skins on MNF are a historically bad bet.

It's Bears or nothing.

Road chalk of 5+ on MNF are 43-12 SU (30-25 ATS).

Cheapest ML at -224 right now.
 
Skins 2-15 SU (3-14 ATS) on MNF since the 2008 season.

They lose by an average of 12.9 points.
 
Last 2 seasons the Skins are 0-4 SU and ATS on MNF losing by an average margin of 14.5 points.

Skins 2-8 SU and ATS all-time as MNF home dogs with an average losing margin of 18.6 points.
 
Bears RT Bobby Massie (vertigo) out vs. Redskins. Kinda surprising as he wasn't listed on the injury report all week.
 
The Ravens/Chiefs was kind of high-profile yesterday. It had a weird spread and ended exactly on 5. Similar line and only game in town.. just fwiw
 
My analysis says take the points but that line and the situation screams Bears. Wish the public road favorite didn’t cover last night.... which it really shouldn’t have.
 
Call me crazy but I like the Bears team total over 23 tonight. Mitch just saw two the toughest defenses in the league. Think we see a little better production out of him tonight. Also expect the defense to give him some short fields.
 
C-MAN said:
Call me crazy but I like the Bears team total over 23 tonight. Mitch just saw two the toughest defenses in the league. Think we see a little better production out of him tonight. Also expect the defense to give him some short fields.
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Plus the Skins can’t run it at all. 0 ability to run. That means a lot of possessions.
 
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