Week 3 Lookahead Lines/Openers and Discussion

Capaholic

Capaholic

Proud Member of Chiefs Nation
Line to the left is the Westgate Week 3 Lookahead Line available this past week. Line to the right is the BetOnline opener

Tennessee -1.5/-1.5
Green Bay -6.5/-7.5
Philadelphia -8/ -7.5 -115
Kansas City -7.5/ -6.5 (moved to 7 and then back to 6.5 juiced)
Buffalo -4/ -5.5
Indianapolis -4/ -2.5
Minnesota -7/ -8.5 (quickly bet down to 7.5)
New England -10/ -17 (-115)
Dallas -9 / -20 (wow)
Tampa Bay -3/ -6
Carolina -3/ -3.5
New Orleans -1./ OFF (Brees)
Chargers -5.5/ -4 (quickly bet down to 3 then back up to 3.5)
SF - 1/ OFF (Big Ben)
Rams -3/ -2.5 (-120)
Chicago -2.5 / -6 (down to -4.5 fast)

Lot of movers this week. Worth nothing that FanDuel Book in NJ was a offering -14.5 for NE and - 15.5 for Dallas this past week. Either way, huge moves.
 
Some initial 1st thoughts/reactions

Fish: holy fuck!! And ppl will lay it and boys will prob cover, what a embarrassment to the league.

Schedule makers did packs new offense no freaking favors did they? True couple home games but wow they have faced couple best defenses in league in div and now donks coming in w head coach who knows Rodgers. Smells like another low scoring game.

Bills getting little inflated? Who the hell is cinxy tho? The shitshow today or team who almost beat Seattle? Didn’t see any of today’s Game, gonna have to look at numbers and little replay before deciding.

What a brutal scheduling spot for Thursday night, another dog fight division game on short week! Under all day imo.

Colts laying less than a fg? Can’t convince me they not at least equal on neutral, they way better in the trenches here!!

Ravens/ma-home-boy should be fantastic!! No clue if I bet it or how I would!! Must see tv tho!!

Jets not gonna score much on pats, I think that total high if jets have some healthy defenders left!!

Lions/Philly 49 feels too high.

So does 48 for giants/Tampa

Pretty much always like the dog in chargers games when I can get more than a fg, on or against cause they have a knack for making every game close!!

San Fran is a pk in home opener to a Steelers team who nothing like we thought they be (or me anyways, lol)?? Seems like that should be a standard home field 3 imo,

Seattle is a ugly 2-0, but still of the mindset if you can get them at home just to win you freaking play them!

Rams -2.5? Yes please?!?? Please god let browns show out Monday night so they get back to feeling themselves!!

Bears/skins will be another bears slugfest race to 20 (if that)!!

That what I’m thinking! Lol
 
Andy Reid looks so damn happy with life having a mvp type QB! You can see the smirk in his face and twinkle in his voice when he talks bout ma-home-boy., It’s time to win the big one Andy!
 
What a new and original twist, saints player crying about refs. Biggest excuse making clowns in history. Keep crying while Seattle kicks your asses!!
 
I can get a juiced 7 on Giants. Not that I like much of anything about them & TB has extra rest but that seems like a tall number for TB to cover.

Grabbed 8 on Denver. Couldn't pass up the number.
 
B.A.R. said:
He's retiring today.
Click to expand...

2 weeks too late. At least he didn’t cost them the game yesterday, that have been a real shame had they started 0-2 cause of kicker. Was he this bad in preseason/in practice? Surely it not the pressure of the game why he missing??
 
Just rewatched the Balt-Cards game. The Cardinals are not good but hung around all day. Jackson has played well, but still makes bad decisions from time to time and is looking for Brown or Andrews on just about every play. His arm has improved, but this is not a team that is of the caliber of NE or KC at this moment. Ten weeks from now, maybe. If Mahomes' ankle is 100% they should score at will as Zona moved the ball quite a bit until getting stalled in the red zone multiple times. Neither Miami nor Zona used anything the Chargers did in the playoffs last season and refused to set the edge, allowing for WIDE open runs for Jackson.
 
Capaholic said:
Just rewatched the Balt-Cards game. The Cardinals are not good but hung around all day. Jackson has played well, but still makes bad decisions from time to time and is looking for Brown or Andrews on just about every play. His arm has improved, but this is not a team that is of the caliber of NE or KC at this moment. Ten weeks from now, maybe. If Mahomes' ankle is 100% they should score at will as Zona moved the ball quite a bit until getting stalled in the red zone multiple times. Neither Miami nor Zona used anything the Chargers did in the playoffs last season and refused to set the edge, allowing for WIDE open runs for Jackson.
Click to expand...

I do like Roman calling plays for him, and haurbagh been one of few guys who has proven he belongs on same field as hoody but I guess the question would be how much that him and how much was it those awesome defensive leaders he has had over the years who all gone now?

My biggest take away besides being kinda surprised cards were able to move the ball was something I hadn’t really considered but should have w this offense, just like college teams who run it they pitiful when they get down close to goal line, always been my pet peeve about the college teams. Even if they have some success gotta believe that a issue that will plague them all year, no ability to muscle up and punch it in.
 
How did prime time know Big Ben wasn’t gonna make the year? He said Ben would retire but maybe he had sources that knew his elbow was fucked? Either way good call by deon!

Big Ben out for year.
 
I think that the hype for this Baltimore/KC game is a bit much. KC are world beaters who can score at will. Baltimore is fun & Lamars been exciting but they played the Dolphins & Cards. i think KC dominates & covers easily
 
D-Woww said:
I think that the hype for this Baltimore/KC game is a bit much. KC are world beaters who can score at will. Baltimore is fun & Lamars been exciting but they played the Dolphins & Cards. i think KC dominates & covers easily
Click to expand...

KC can’t run the ball for 1 ypc. It has to catch up to them. I liked them here but the line feels short.
 
D-Woww said:
I think that the hype for this Baltimore/KC game is a bit much. KC are world beaters who can score at will. Baltimore is fun & Lamars been exciting but they played the Dolphins & Cards. i think KC dominates & covers easily
Click to expand...

I dunno, I think ravens will be able to score points. The comp doesn’t matter to me so much as seeing Lamar make throws and what Roman has brought to the offense, I thought he was very good designing that niners kapernick offense and seems like he the right guy for Lamar imo.
 
Is Houston gonna be able to keep Watson alive vs couple those stud pass rushers the chargers have?? Really wanna jump on that +3.5 but kinda a huge concern for me!!
 
Haven't been a believer in Lamar since college. I think KC's scoring at will leads them to running away with it.
 
Bill O'Brien 44-42 in his career, including postseason. When the game total was lined 44 or less the Texans went 31-18 (.633). When the game total was lined higher than 44: O'Brien and them 13-24 (.351). Total opened 48 this week.
 
https://twitter.com/x/status/1174106624480428032

EEtDwFGXsAAgMk4.jpg:large
 
1st bet I made this week was the under 50.5 in rams/clowns game. I think both offensive lines gonna have their hands full in that one!!
 
For the trend happy.
You get one/two of these instances in week 3 each yr.
This year there are 5.
I was confirming some totals and noticed this.
Week 3, home team 2-0 and road team 0-2.


week = 3 and p:W and pp:W and H and op:L and opp:L

SU:18-6-0 (8.29, 75.0%)Teaser Records
ATS:12-12-0 (-0.65, 50.0%) avg line: -8.9 +6: 16-8-0 (66.7%) -6: 7-17-0 (29.2%) +10: 18-6-0 (75.0%) -10: 6-18-0 (25.0%)
O/U:13-9-2 (1.12, 59.1%) avg total: 42.8+6: 8-15-1 (34.8%) -6: 18-6-0 (75.0%) +10: 4-20-0 (16.7%) -10: 22-2-0 (91.7%)

Sep 22, 2019 view Sunday 3 2019 Bills Bengals home -6.0 43.5
Sep 22, 2019 view Sunday 3 2019 Cowboys Dolphins home -21.0 47.5
Sep 22, 2019 view Sunday 3 2019 Fortyniners Steelers home -6.5 43.5
Sep 22, 2019 view Sunday 3 2019 Packers Broncos home -8.0 42.5
Sep 22, 2019 view Sunday 3 2019 Patriots Jets home -22.5 44.0
 
week = 3 and p:W and pp:W and H and op:W and opp:W

SU:20-15-0 (5.29, 57.1%)Teaser Records
ATS:19-14-2 (3.46, 57.6%) avg line: -1.8 +6: 23-11-1 (67.6%) -6: 14-20-1 (41.2%) +10: 27-7-1 (79.4%) -10: 14-21-0 (40.0%)
O/U:15-19-1 (-1.06, 44.1%) avg total: 41.8+6: 10-24-1 (29.4%) -6: 20-14-1 (58.8%) +10: 7-28-0 (20.0%) -10: 29-6-0 (82.9%)

Sep 22, 2019 view Sunday 3 2019 Chiefs Ravens home -6.5 54.5
 
Press - I don’t see much of an advantage here. Teams are 12 - 12 ATS in that situation. What am I missing?
 
C-MAN said:
Press - I don’t see much of an advantage here. Teams are 12 - 12 ATS in that situation. What am I missing?
Click to expand...
I wasn't clear as usual.
I should have just said, "there are 5 instances of winless teams playing undefeated teams"(I don't think I saw more than two any other year, but that was yesterday)
Back testing totals and didn't even see ATS.
Figures.
Sorry for the confusion.
 
Strong trend to teasing the unders of those games, if that's your thing.

Dogs have fared well in teasers of those games also...but there isn't a big enough teaser out there to make me want to back MIA or NYJ.
 
Maybe I misread those total teasers, looks like it's the over cashing tickets.
 
pressitup said:
week = 3 and p:W and pp:W and H and op:W and opp:W

SU:20-15-0 (5.29, 57.1%)Teaser Records
ATS:19-14-2 (3.46, 57.6%) avg line: -1.8+6: 23-11-1 (67.6%) -6: 14-20-1 (41.2%) +10: 27-7-1 (79.4%) -10: 14-21-0 (40.0%)
O/U:15-19-1 (-1.06, 44.1%) avg total: 41.8+6: 10-24-1 (29.4%) -6: 20-14-1 (58.8%) +10: 7-28-0 (20.0%) -10: 29-6-0 (82.9%)

Sep 22, 2019viewSunday32019ChiefsRavenshome -6.554.5
Click to expand...

Sorry but what's this trend 'bout??….2-0 RD TEAM VS 2-0 HOME. Just wanna be clear ... thanks
 
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