***Week 3 Lex***

NFL 13-17 -10.4 units


Time to right the ship. I have quite a few dogs on the radar today. Too bad most are in the +100/+120 range.

Bills thoughts-

I'm 4-1 on Bills wagers this season so far, with the sole loss being NE. Bills TT over is a going to continue to be an auto play until it doesn't hit. Don't trick yourself into thinking the Bills kept it close last week- it was an absolute blowout. Game was out of hand once the Bills offense did anything. Tyrod being sacked 8x vs Brady barely being touched. Tyrod was the cause of at least 3 of those, he needs to learn to move better within the pocket. The fact remains the Bills o-line has been playing like garbage through two games. Incognito has probably been the most stable, which is scary. I was high on Henderson lats season but he has been horrid. People have been hating on McCoy but given holes this guy is going to get through them. Enter the Fins who allowed the Redskins to run all over them...then the Jags put up pts on them. The Bills offense has light years more talent than either of those offenses. I fully expect McCoy to get 140+ all purpose, so a prop may be a nice option there. Rex may ease Tyrod into the game by trying to establish the run. Unless the Fins dline dominates the game and Tyrod flops on his first road start, I can't see the Bills being held under 20 points.

On the other side of the ball the Bills d line was really a non factor last week. Brady executed the offense flawlessly and got the bvall off before pressure came. Maybe the Fins try to replicate that, but Tannehill is no Brady. I think Dareus wasn't quite game ready last week but if there is ever a week for the Bills line to dominate this is it. Because of that I am a little leery of the game over, could easily see a 24-16 type final. I may be looking into a half bet if there is a good opportunity, but I'm on Bills ML/tt over for sure.
 
Bills+123

Bills tt o20-105

Colts-173

Colts tt o24.5-110

Falcons-118

Bucs+7-125

Eagles+106

Chargers+100

Lions tt o21-105

3 units each



+410

Eagles+7
Seahawks-9
Cards-.5
Bills+7.5
Lions+9.5

2 units


 
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Edited in a couple wagers. Can't believe I'm backing a rookie qb otr vs Watt but I don't think the Texans are worth that line. Leaning on the Bucs D to keep this a low scoring snoozefest.

Colts faced 2 top 5 defenses week 1 and 2 but now get to face a Titans team that allowed the Browns to put up 28. Titans D has faced Winston and Manziel, now they get a dose of Luck and a Colts team that desperately needs a win? I may be taking a stab at an alternate line too because I think this is a 17+ pt victory where Luck throws 3 tds in the first half. If Mariota can lead the Titans to a cover I'll tip my cap but this fave is one I can't pass on.

Also added Falcons.
 
11-12 -3.02 for the week. Lions not covering +9.5 was a 10 unit swing, hoping the 2-0 MNF is the start of the run
 
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