Week 3 in the FCS
- Thread starter s--k
- Start date
carolinablue
College Football Guru
The coach announced it on Monday I think, so it was factored into the open. After the Minny 66-0 game last week vs NWST, I knew there was no chance I would get less than 40 on this one regardless of the QB, as that game and the other huge blow outs probably screwed my chances for reasonable lines this week.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Just confirmed I’m not crazy and it was Monday…
According to Indiana State head coach Curt Mallory, starting quarterback and second-leading rusher Elijah Owens suffered a collarbone injury late in the win over Eastern Illinois and he will miss this contest.
The Sycamore are expected to turn to Keegan Patterson. He played well against the Panthers, throwing for 111 yards with two touchdowns and running for another 78.
According to Indiana State head coach Curt Mallory, starting quarterback and second-leading rusher Elijah Owens suffered a collarbone injury late in the win over Eastern Illinois and he will miss this contest.
The Sycamore are expected to turn to Keegan Patterson. He played well against the Panthers, throwing for 111 yards with two touchdowns and running for another 78.
s--k
2024 and 2025 CTG Supporting Donation Member
That reflects even worse on Eastern Illinois unless Patterson has improved significantly from 2024
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Passed on…
UNC 21.5
TCU 36.5 105
Baylor 46.5
UNC 21.5
TCU 36.5 105
Baylor 46.5
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Passed on PSU 48.5
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Will log as many opens I see even if I pass
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Feel good about my passes as the lines haven't moved in 10 mins with the exception of TCU which went back and forth between 36 105 and 36 115. Everything else has been static, which makes sense as all the lines are pretty tight so far.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Thinking -3.5 but hoping they are dogged as I will take ML most likely but also wouldn't be surprised to see a 6 put out there and then have it bet down
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Yeah total bust
s--k
2024 and 2025 CTG Supporting Donation Member
continuing some thoughts on these games...
Not a fan of what this Campbell team has looked like this year. I thought that Furman would be improved, and maybe they are, but…I mean scored on D and D set up another short field score vs W&M…only 237 ttl yards and 3.7ypp there (were outgained by 115y). Couldn’t run (58y 1.7ypc) O was better last week..but still couldn’t run (107y 3.1ypc) vs Presbyterian. Blew the lead vs PC. Not sure this is the kind of team I want to back as a road favorite. Passing.
NDSU has been pretty incredible so far this year facing teams with about zero offensive threat against a somewhat bad (The Citadel) to expecting to be bad (Tennessee State). NDSU D has held them combined to 12FD, 297y (2.75ypp), 2.5ypc rush, 38.5% pass completions and just 3-of-25 3rd down conversions! Again, The Citadel (with a new QB) and Tennessee State (with all new everything), so not a surprise, but impressive none-the-less. NDSU O has been equally dominant. SEMO does provide a step up in competition compared to the first 2, but not sure it will matter all that much. SEMO struggled with the Ark St O and NDSU better in their own NDSU kind of way. New QB Leatherwood does have a 4-0 ratio and his connecting on a good % creating continued optimism for what he can become. This will be a huge test. The running game is still kind of a work in progress and the D is the biggest concern here taking on the Bison. Expecting this line to be in the 30s and don’t think I want to quite lay that much, SEMO would have backdoor potential – Ark St led them 42-10 and it went final 42-24.
Bucknell is a team that should win games like they did last week vs Marist and they beat Marist last year and they beat this week’s opponent VMI last year as well. Can’t rely on them to win by much. Bucknell beat Marist last week 34-23, Red Fox outgained them 439-372 (5.0-6.5). Both teams had some turnovers and short FGs that kept more pts off the board. Think they opened -5.5 and I saw a close at 12, so late Bucknell bets lost. Last year they beat Marist 34-18 as a 17pt home fav with a slight 458-435 (6.9-5.8) yard edge. Bucknell not known for D, Marist had some of their best offensive numbers against them last year. All this serves as a warning on backing the Bucknell D. Last year VMI put up 28 pts and 378y (5.8) while running for 212 (7.6) and 65% pass completions – as with the Bucknell – Marist 2024 game, similarly for VMI those offensive numbers were some rare air for them to post. Personally I like Rucker and what he has and hopefully will continue to accomplish at Bucknell, but must proceed with caution backing them laying points even vs VMI. Shannon is back at QB for VMI and if he stays healthy the VMI O will exceed the dismal 2024 numbers.
I’m not sure what this edition of Fordham is yet. New QB, Gunner Smith is a name that has bounced around Florida G5 schools, but he got his playing time at JUCO and now is starting at Fordham. Last week in his first game vs equalish competition (throwing out the BC game), Smith was 27-49-382-3-1 the Fordham O stalled out in the 2H and he took 5 sacks, maybe him or maybe the protection on the OL to blame. The OL was pretty inexperienced coming into the year. They didn’t try to run the ball much and weren’t very effective, top RBs combined just 13att and 3.9ypc. The D? Well they played BC and then took on the best passing offense and one of the top offenses period in the FCS. I was under the impression their 2025 D had a chance to improve, which we’d be hard pressed to see it show up vs BC or Monmouth. But maybe vs a good but closer to above average O. Stony Brook has a bit of a QB problem. After playing both Zellous and Case week 1 vs San Diego St, they went with just Zellous vs URI last week. And you kind of get what you expect with him 12-20-137-0-1, but he ran for 83y with a TD. SB rolled up 403 (5.2) vs URI mostly behind Dempster and Zellous’ run game. SB led URI 10-0, but lost 17-31. It appears SB D might be down at the DL and secondary. These two played week 3 last year and both teams were already going in opposite directions. Fordham was outgained 257-432 (4.0-4.9) but actually had a game winning TD called back and they lost by 6. This is a game I might take a chance on Fordham given the right dog line. PR shows it low 3.5-5.5 among the 3 spreads, I'd want a little more. S&P has it a comfortable win for SB 35.2-19.7. Fordham has been a pretty good program historically take out last year (winning season 9 of last 12 years with 4 playoff births) and I don't think they should be left for dead yet. If Smith plays like he did last week, the OL needs to be better, but Fordham D might have a chance to matchup for the first time this season. We shall see.
Who’s excited to get on the Idaho train again this week? Eh…. All the positives from the Wazzou game on the Idaho D seem like a distant memory now. They go from allowing just 3.4ypp vs Wazzou to giving up 7.2 to St Thomas! 3rd down D was still good and did create some negative plays. There were some problematic penalties vs Wazzou, but it was a bigger problem vs St Thomas, 13pen for 104y and St Thomas was awarded 5 of their 26 FDs by way of penalty. Hard to back an undisciplined team and in sports, Idaho seems to fit that category so far this year. So the D was mostly a night-day difference, but so was the O that struggled to do much vs Wazzou, they were pretty good vs St Thomas…which it’s a Pioneer league school, 467y (7.8) 80% completions 60% 3rd down, 186y rush (87 by QB) are what you would expect. So can the Idaho D tighten up? Can the O keep it up? Utah Tech has been surprisingly frisky this season, led UCD 24-7 3Q, but the O was all opportunistic stuff (short fields off of TOs) UCD outgained them 417-353 (5.6-4.8) in their comeback win. Last week Utah Tech appeared to give NAU a game, it was 38-31. They traded INTs early and UT Tech again got a short field TD to lead 7-0 and then they didn’t do much until late 2Q. NAU actually led 24-7 and 38-17 until UT Tech got 128y on their final two TD drives to make it look closer. NAU was a 20 pt fav. UCD was a 19 pt road fav. UT Tech as a result has 2 covers to their name, but they weren’t exactly good in the games, better than last year, that is for certain give them credit as an improved team, but also a little misleading. If this line were to open were the St Thomas – Idaho line opens, I will bite again, but it probably opens up where that line was bet up to and don’t think I have the appetite to lay more than 2 TDs with Vandals given what I saw out of their D and the undisciplined nature last week.
Lindenwood at Charleston Southern looks like an odd line at first glace with CSU potentially being favored. 0-2 vs 0-2. Lindenwood lost to the above mentioned St Thomas after destroying them in 2024. There is a lot different on this Lindenwood team compared to 2024 outside of their QB and RB. Looks like it made a difference obviously as shown in the two St Thomas games. The O still moved it very well vs the Tommies (450y 6.9ypp), but scored just 1 TD on 5 RZ trips. The D gave it up, as they did a lot last year. Bad D last year and looks bad yet again this year. St Thomas 447y (7.1) and ran for 275 (6.3) and they scored TDs on 5 of their 6 RZ trips. Of course App St moved it up and down the field on them (503y 7.5) but only score 20 pts for some unknown reason. And the Lindenwood O was shut down (216y 3.1). Charleston Southern has had a rough schedule here to start, at Vandy and at Coastal Carolina. They have a total of 288y and 3 pts combined in both games and have converted just 3-of-24 3rd down and haven’t even entered the red zone yet! But playing the Lindenwood D should be a big class relief moment, but it’s still just a Charleston Southern O which just isn’t and hasn't been good. Last year vs Lindenwood CSU scored 14 pts – they were both on D, a pick-six and a fum ret, they only had 197y (3.9). Talk about RZ issues? How about Lindenwood scoring just 2 TDs on 8 RZ tirps in that one! Lindenwood kicked 5 FGs and but still covered a 9pt spread in the 29-14 win. CSU probably will have some juice in first home game playing a team they think they can finally matchup with, but Lindenwood enters here 0-2 and this being the first conference game, they were much improved in league play 4-4 beating SEMO and having close games with other co-champs UTM and TTU. Saying that they think they are taking the next step as a program (I know they aren't but these are expectations teams strive for) and performing well in their first league game is part of that next step. Two of the PRs posted in the thread have CSU as a small fav, one has LW -.5 and S&P has LW winning 26-21. Could see a close game, but Lindenwood has the better QB and has history of knowing how to do things on offense while CSU really does not and I could see myself taking Lindenwood hopefully getting a few points as dog just in case CSU does something unexpected.
PR lines have Tennessee State favored, but S&P has Alabama A&M winning and I suspect that is correct. It’s hard to hold the NDSU loss to heavily against TSU, but they were way bad. Compare 2024 to 2025. Lost at NDSU 3-52 last year and outgained 200-436 (3.6-6.8). This year lost to NDSU at home 3-59 outgained 131-433 (2.8-7.0). Which makes sense, last year they were a playoff team and this year they are all new everything, but The Citadel played NDSU better than that. Put that game aside, week 1, vs a fairly weak NC A&T team also with a new head coach, A&T outgained TSU 343-252 (5.4-4.9) in the 3 pt loss. A&T actually led 14-10, but TSU got some big runs by Rhymes and they pulled ahead 24-14 before A&T scored on a big pass play. Pass D week 1 was especially alarming because A&T is not a good passing team, but vs TSU they hit 70% for 210y (66y was on 1 play). TSU O is allowing a lot of negative plays, NDSU got 8 TFLs on them, ok no shame there, but A&T got 11 TFLs. And TSU has been abysmal on 3rd down this year 2-of-11 vs A&T and of course just 1-of-13 vs NDSU. It's rFr Johnathan Palmer at QB for TSU (nephew of the other Palmer QBs we know) and unfortunately for them he hasn't been good yet. Alabama A&M has a new head coach as well, Sam Shields from Miles. Had Miles in the Dll playoffs last year. Think A&M does have a more stable roster with Brown at QB who has been around for years now (former Georgia State QB 2019-21) – he was just named HBCU and SWAC O POW for his performance vs Alcorn State. A&M D has a few key starters dotting the lineup back and will have to keep Rhymes under wraps. I will look to play A&M as presumably a small dog.
Not a fan of what this Campbell team has looked like this year. I thought that Furman would be improved, and maybe they are, but…I mean scored on D and D set up another short field score vs W&M…only 237 ttl yards and 3.7ypp there (were outgained by 115y). Couldn’t run (58y 1.7ypc) O was better last week..but still couldn’t run (107y 3.1ypc) vs Presbyterian. Blew the lead vs PC. Not sure this is the kind of team I want to back as a road favorite. Passing.
NDSU has been pretty incredible so far this year facing teams with about zero offensive threat against a somewhat bad (The Citadel) to expecting to be bad (Tennessee State). NDSU D has held them combined to 12FD, 297y (2.75ypp), 2.5ypc rush, 38.5% pass completions and just 3-of-25 3rd down conversions! Again, The Citadel (with a new QB) and Tennessee State (with all new everything), so not a surprise, but impressive none-the-less. NDSU O has been equally dominant. SEMO does provide a step up in competition compared to the first 2, but not sure it will matter all that much. SEMO struggled with the Ark St O and NDSU better in their own NDSU kind of way. New QB Leatherwood does have a 4-0 ratio and his connecting on a good % creating continued optimism for what he can become. This will be a huge test. The running game is still kind of a work in progress and the D is the biggest concern here taking on the Bison. Expecting this line to be in the 30s and don’t think I want to quite lay that much, SEMO would have backdoor potential – Ark St led them 42-10 and it went final 42-24.
Bucknell is a team that should win games like they did last week vs Marist and they beat Marist last year and they beat this week’s opponent VMI last year as well. Can’t rely on them to win by much. Bucknell beat Marist last week 34-23, Red Fox outgained them 439-372 (5.0-6.5). Both teams had some turnovers and short FGs that kept more pts off the board. Think they opened -5.5 and I saw a close at 12, so late Bucknell bets lost. Last year they beat Marist 34-18 as a 17pt home fav with a slight 458-435 (6.9-5.8) yard edge. Bucknell not known for D, Marist had some of their best offensive numbers against them last year. All this serves as a warning on backing the Bucknell D. Last year VMI put up 28 pts and 378y (5.8) while running for 212 (7.6) and 65% pass completions – as with the Bucknell – Marist 2024 game, similarly for VMI those offensive numbers were some rare air for them to post. Personally I like Rucker and what he has and hopefully will continue to accomplish at Bucknell, but must proceed with caution backing them laying points even vs VMI. Shannon is back at QB for VMI and if he stays healthy the VMI O will exceed the dismal 2024 numbers.
I’m not sure what this edition of Fordham is yet. New QB, Gunner Smith is a name that has bounced around Florida G5 schools, but he got his playing time at JUCO and now is starting at Fordham. Last week in his first game vs equalish competition (throwing out the BC game), Smith was 27-49-382-3-1 the Fordham O stalled out in the 2H and he took 5 sacks, maybe him or maybe the protection on the OL to blame. The OL was pretty inexperienced coming into the year. They didn’t try to run the ball much and weren’t very effective, top RBs combined just 13att and 3.9ypc. The D? Well they played BC and then took on the best passing offense and one of the top offenses period in the FCS. I was under the impression their 2025 D had a chance to improve, which we’d be hard pressed to see it show up vs BC or Monmouth. But maybe vs a good but closer to above average O. Stony Brook has a bit of a QB problem. After playing both Zellous and Case week 1 vs San Diego St, they went with just Zellous vs URI last week. And you kind of get what you expect with him 12-20-137-0-1, but he ran for 83y with a TD. SB rolled up 403 (5.2) vs URI mostly behind Dempster and Zellous’ run game. SB led URI 10-0, but lost 17-31. It appears SB D might be down at the DL and secondary. These two played week 3 last year and both teams were already going in opposite directions. Fordham was outgained 257-432 (4.0-4.9) but actually had a game winning TD called back and they lost by 6. This is a game I might take a chance on Fordham given the right dog line. PR shows it low 3.5-5.5 among the 3 spreads, I'd want a little more. S&P has it a comfortable win for SB 35.2-19.7. Fordham has been a pretty good program historically take out last year (winning season 9 of last 12 years with 4 playoff births) and I don't think they should be left for dead yet. If Smith plays like he did last week, the OL needs to be better, but Fordham D might have a chance to matchup for the first time this season. We shall see.
Who’s excited to get on the Idaho train again this week? Eh…. All the positives from the Wazzou game on the Idaho D seem like a distant memory now. They go from allowing just 3.4ypp vs Wazzou to giving up 7.2 to St Thomas! 3rd down D was still good and did create some negative plays. There were some problematic penalties vs Wazzou, but it was a bigger problem vs St Thomas, 13pen for 104y and St Thomas was awarded 5 of their 26 FDs by way of penalty. Hard to back an undisciplined team and in sports, Idaho seems to fit that category so far this year. So the D was mostly a night-day difference, but so was the O that struggled to do much vs Wazzou, they were pretty good vs St Thomas…which it’s a Pioneer league school, 467y (7.8) 80% completions 60% 3rd down, 186y rush (87 by QB) are what you would expect. So can the Idaho D tighten up? Can the O keep it up? Utah Tech has been surprisingly frisky this season, led UCD 24-7 3Q, but the O was all opportunistic stuff (short fields off of TOs) UCD outgained them 417-353 (5.6-4.8) in their comeback win. Last week Utah Tech appeared to give NAU a game, it was 38-31. They traded INTs early and UT Tech again got a short field TD to lead 7-0 and then they didn’t do much until late 2Q. NAU actually led 24-7 and 38-17 until UT Tech got 128y on their final two TD drives to make it look closer. NAU was a 20 pt fav. UCD was a 19 pt road fav. UT Tech as a result has 2 covers to their name, but they weren’t exactly good in the games, better than last year, that is for certain give them credit as an improved team, but also a little misleading. If this line were to open were the St Thomas – Idaho line opens, I will bite again, but it probably opens up where that line was bet up to and don’t think I have the appetite to lay more than 2 TDs with Vandals given what I saw out of their D and the undisciplined nature last week.
Lindenwood at Charleston Southern looks like an odd line at first glace with CSU potentially being favored. 0-2 vs 0-2. Lindenwood lost to the above mentioned St Thomas after destroying them in 2024. There is a lot different on this Lindenwood team compared to 2024 outside of their QB and RB. Looks like it made a difference obviously as shown in the two St Thomas games. The O still moved it very well vs the Tommies (450y 6.9ypp), but scored just 1 TD on 5 RZ trips. The D gave it up, as they did a lot last year. Bad D last year and looks bad yet again this year. St Thomas 447y (7.1) and ran for 275 (6.3) and they scored TDs on 5 of their 6 RZ trips. Of course App St moved it up and down the field on them (503y 7.5) but only score 20 pts for some unknown reason. And the Lindenwood O was shut down (216y 3.1). Charleston Southern has had a rough schedule here to start, at Vandy and at Coastal Carolina. They have a total of 288y and 3 pts combined in both games and have converted just 3-of-24 3rd down and haven’t even entered the red zone yet! But playing the Lindenwood D should be a big class relief moment, but it’s still just a Charleston Southern O which just isn’t and hasn't been good. Last year vs Lindenwood CSU scored 14 pts – they were both on D, a pick-six and a fum ret, they only had 197y (3.9). Talk about RZ issues? How about Lindenwood scoring just 2 TDs on 8 RZ tirps in that one! Lindenwood kicked 5 FGs and but still covered a 9pt spread in the 29-14 win. CSU probably will have some juice in first home game playing a team they think they can finally matchup with, but Lindenwood enters here 0-2 and this being the first conference game, they were much improved in league play 4-4 beating SEMO and having close games with other co-champs UTM and TTU. Saying that they think they are taking the next step as a program (I know they aren't but these are expectations teams strive for) and performing well in their first league game is part of that next step. Two of the PRs posted in the thread have CSU as a small fav, one has LW -.5 and S&P has LW winning 26-21. Could see a close game, but Lindenwood has the better QB and has history of knowing how to do things on offense while CSU really does not and I could see myself taking Lindenwood hopefully getting a few points as dog just in case CSU does something unexpected.
PR lines have Tennessee State favored, but S&P has Alabama A&M winning and I suspect that is correct. It’s hard to hold the NDSU loss to heavily against TSU, but they were way bad. Compare 2024 to 2025. Lost at NDSU 3-52 last year and outgained 200-436 (3.6-6.8). This year lost to NDSU at home 3-59 outgained 131-433 (2.8-7.0). Which makes sense, last year they were a playoff team and this year they are all new everything, but The Citadel played NDSU better than that. Put that game aside, week 1, vs a fairly weak NC A&T team also with a new head coach, A&T outgained TSU 343-252 (5.4-4.9) in the 3 pt loss. A&T actually led 14-10, but TSU got some big runs by Rhymes and they pulled ahead 24-14 before A&T scored on a big pass play. Pass D week 1 was especially alarming because A&T is not a good passing team, but vs TSU they hit 70% for 210y (66y was on 1 play). TSU O is allowing a lot of negative plays, NDSU got 8 TFLs on them, ok no shame there, but A&T got 11 TFLs. And TSU has been abysmal on 3rd down this year 2-of-11 vs A&T and of course just 1-of-13 vs NDSU. It's rFr Johnathan Palmer at QB for TSU (nephew of the other Palmer QBs we know) and unfortunately for them he hasn't been good yet. Alabama A&M has a new head coach as well, Sam Shields from Miles. Had Miles in the Dll playoffs last year. Think A&M does have a more stable roster with Brown at QB who has been around for years now (former Georgia State QB 2019-21) – he was just named HBCU and SWAC O POW for his performance vs Alcorn State. A&M D has a few key starters dotting the lineup back and will have to keep Rhymes under wraps. I will look to play A&M as presumably a small dog.
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carolinablue
College Football Guru
I’ve been stalking
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Lehigh down to 14.5 now
s--k
2024 and 2025 CTG Supporting Donation Member
and back to 12.5
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Yeah I passed but can see why it’s dropping
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Want to see URI CCSU SELA to name a few
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Passed on Furman -10.5 at Campbell
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Nothing for me so far
s--k
2024 and 2025 CTG Supporting Donation Member
ML jumped from -780 to 850
s--k
2024 and 2025 CTG Supporting Donation Member
I do want to go to bed soon...
sleepy
Pretty much a regular
fd pace is one every 10-15 minutes
carolinablue
College Football Guru
I will give it another hour like last week and then I am gonna throw in the towel like Arnold Skaaland
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Still waiting for the rest of the FBS v FCS after we got teased with the first 4 earlier but nothing since
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Was hoping for a short line on URI but no play at -7.5....Can't argue your +7.5 there.
carolinablue
College Football Guru
I figured URI -5.5 but was hoping for 3 or less
carolinablue
College Football Guru
Don't trust the EIU offense enough even at home to hang in there with the +25.5 so passed on that one
carolinablue
College Football Guru
That 38-14 showing by EIU vs Indiana State kept me off this one
s--k
2024 and 2025 CTG Supporting Donation Member
Yes the favorites are really inflated I think