Terrible pick to start out the week. Total misread, but I feel like I have this Toledo team pegged now, which is the whole point the first weeks of the season IMO. So we will see how it plays out throughout the season.
ON TO THE PICKS...........
West Virginia (+3) x2u AND West Virginia ML (+145) x1u ----- MASTERED
I believed before the season that WVU would be much improved, but thought their schedule was just too brutal. & after 2 weeks they look even more improved than I expected, & if they want to get to a bowl then this is a must win IMO. This team got beat down last year in this rivalry 37-0, & that has to still be in their minds. They were also playing w/ a bunch of kids still new to the system & a RS Frosh QB who was playing w/ 1 arm. This year they have a bunch of people that know the system & Trickett has looked even better than I expected. I also think that WVU defense is better than most think, although not dominant. My biggest, & really my only concern is the success that DC Brian Stewart has had against Dana's offenses. I think last year was kind of misleading, but still, the guy knows how to coach against this stuff from his time at Houston where they run similar offense. Dana is coaching for his job IMO, he & the players know it. WVU has dominated this series of late up until last year.....It feels like a game they win by 10pts IMO, so I have to go with it here. I expect Holgo to have a 4pack of redbulls killed by kickoff, & possibly give his team a couple of those each to get them fired up.
Virginia +7 (-120) ----- REG
Virginia ML (+225) ----- Small Potatoes
Virginia has a lot of talent on this team, & I feel they are better than most think. I thought preseason that this was a game Virginia would win, & I have no problem sticking with it. I expect Virginia D to give Gardner some fits & put pressure on him, hopefully leading to some mistakes on his 1st road game. & if their offense can avoid turning the ball over then I can certainly see them winning.
South Carolina +7 (-120) ----- REG
South Carolina ML (+220) ----- Small Potatoes
It's early in the season, & I'm gonna call for something that happens every single year around this time: Over reaction. First off, I was on Georgia -7.5 against Clemson so I'm not a Georgia hater. Georgia beats a team that lost it's QB, RB, & top WR and now they are labeled a top 4 team b/c of it. I get that the final score was a 24pt margin, but it was also a 3pt margin w/ 10min left in the dang game before Clemson completely collapsed. I understand that Clemson had barely any yards in the 2nd half, but I also stated that the DC Pruitt vs OC Morris matchup was the best thing to like about the game. That was a game, IMO, they should have won by DD's.....so I don't get all the love. I do love the running game for Georgia, but I still don't know about Mason at QB. Now on to South Car.....they get blasted by an A&M team that no one thought would be any good, picked 6th in the SEC West. SC was very unprepared for that game & they were going against a team w/ a chip on their shoulder & a great motivator as a coach. Last week they play ECU who has a very good passing game, & i dont think they gave a damn about that game, & got by with a win. Note, I was not high on SC going into the year, b/c I thought they had too much to replace on the defense to win the conference, & I wasnt sold on the QB situation. After 2 games, I still think the defense is a question but I actually like the QB situation. SC was a trendy pick in the SEC, & now after 2 weeks everyone is writing them off.
Ok, Rant over.........As for this game, Georgia is hyped up big time by everyone, & has a week off to prepare & should have everything going in their favor rest-wise & schedule-wise. SC is dogged on, but now they are fighting for their season this game. If they lose this game, they basically have zero chance at winning the East. I just have a hard time seeing SC dropping off that far, but I do believe Georgia could be really good. Regardless, Mike Davis is healthy, Thompson looks like he can throw & has developed chemistry with his WR's, & maybe (just maybe) their defense can step up here. I fully expect them to focus on stopping the run & make Mason pass, & he may have success. Or Mason may not do good under pressure, & this sorry SC secondary who has played 2 very, very good passing offenses is ready to take a step up.
Basically, Spurrier is still very good at home & Georgia has not had success here (& I think Richt likes to mess things up). SC is playing for their season, & Georgia has gone from a top 15 team to a top 4 team just for beating a ballclub who lost their whole offense, is in a weaker conference, at home. I could be waaaaay off here, but i guess there is only 1 way to find out.
Florida (-18.5) ----- REG
I fully believe that Kentucky is improved, but I am also (admittedly) very high on Florida this year & I don't think this is near enough points. I think this b/c I believe it's going to take Vegas some time to actually catch up to Florida's offense. It's been dreadful of late, but I believe it's the real deal now. Florida has dominated Kentucky lately, & I don't think Kentucky is near the level of Florida yet. 2 concerns: 1.) starting LT is out & Kentucky has some good edge pass rushers....however w/ Florida's quick throw offense I don't think it'll be too much of a problem. 2.) A look ahead spot to Alabama next week. I would normally worry about this, but since they have only played 1 game, I don't think it'll come into play. I also don't think it helps at all when Kentucky players are going around saying it's going to be great walking out of the Swamp w/ a win & talking trash. I also think this Florida team is fully focused this year.....maybe if they played Idaho in week 1 then they would look ahead, but I think they have kinks they want to iron out & crispen up before Bama. Florida's defense is still dominant, & I get that Kentucky's offense has looked good early, but I don't think it'll look too good tomorrow. All factors considered, I don't think it'll be close.....something like 41-10?? I very well may come back & MASTER this tomorrow.
Oklahoma (-21) ----- REG
This just looks like a MASSIVE mismatch to me. Tennessee's traveling roster is 2/3 full of players making their 1st road trip, to Norman, for a night game, on national TV. Most importantly, games are won & lost on the LOS.....and Tenn is so young there. The Vols bring in all new starters on the OL, in a very loud stadium (false starts), against OU's front 7 (which i have made obvious that I'm very high on). They also bring in a young & fresh DL against OU's OL, who I think is one of the top units in the nation. OU's OL outweighs Tennessee's DL by 50lbs, & when OU wants to run the ball as much as possible, I dont see how this can be a good match up. Now, I really like the athletes & talent Tennessee has, but they are just very very young, & traveling here just doesn't look good IMO. Tennessee will have to find a way to stop the run & make Knight throw the ball.....b/c 1 spot I'm not sold on w/ OU is their new WR's. Tennessee will have to make them prove themselves if they want to keep this close. Offensively for Tennessee, I just don't see too much hope unless they can pass protect. If they can pass protect then they have the athletes to hang and possibly beat OU's young secondary. Something I do know is that OU has not shown anything on defense so far this year, they have been very vanilla. & I do know they added a whole lot to their defense this year (last year they learned as they went & installed it throughout the season) as far as packages & disguises. So with confusing looks, I feel like Tennessee will make a lot of mistakes offensively. I called for Geneo Grissom to be a darkhorse for Big 12 DPOY, & he has been all I expected thusfar this year......I wont be surprised if a lot of people to know his name after this game. I would go real large on this game, but I honestly don't like the number....I was hoping for something lower. I dont buy into the whole "Stoops hates the SEC so he will run it up," & think if Tennessee covers this game then it'll be from a late score. Something like 47-17?? (***note that I think Tenn will be much improved as the season goes on, & think they will upset a team or 2 this year, so I'm not being a hater).
ML PARLAY:
Old Dominion, Boise St, Air Force, Duke, TCU, Florida, OU (+134)
I usually don't play more than 4 or 5 teams in these....but it feels like an "iffy" week w/ a lot of teams IMO.
I may add a couple tomorrow:
USF ML ----- This is based on the fact that USF has athletes and is much improved & I don't think NCST is very good at all. NC State is also not good track record as a road favorite.
Texas Tech ML ----- This game would go against my biggest thing when gambling....the line of scrimmage advantage. Tech has looked like turds through the 1st 2 games. Arkansas should bury Tech at the LOS....but for some reason I think Tech puts together a very good game. Lubbock is a bitch to play at, & I think you will find out why Bretty B petitioned so hard to get the 10 second run off rule into effect.
Also really like Georgia Southern.....but for some reason just can't pull the trigger.
