Week 3 Early Action & Initial Leans


Pretty much a regular
After a successful Week 2 I've gotten a little more confidence and have locked in some early bets to avoid any unfortunate line movement.

This week I'm playing

Atlanta -3 (1 Unit)

As much as I don't like the x-factor of the Saint's post-Katrina homefield mojo, and the way the NFL is making the game into a big event, it could play against them as well by putting too much pressure on them to win for the home crowd. One risk too many could end up as a defensive TD for Atlanta. Also, a 3-0 Saints team would surprise me. If that happens, I might put a small bet on them to win their division if it stays at plus money. Decided against buying the hook as I was already paying extra juice as it stood at -118. There are a lot worse things than a push.

Green Bay +7 (Hook) (1 Unit)

Detroit isn't the worst of the worst, but they're certainly no playoff team. As long as Favre and Driver can hook up the Pack will score enough to stay within the spread if not win outright. If the line stays this way I may make a small ML bet as well. (Since my crappy book doesn't post ML bets until the day before the game)

NY Giants +3.5 (2 Units)

Not much to say about this game, I just think it's pretty even. And in an evenly matched game, I'll take the points thanks. Especially a sweet +3.5. I just hope my ex-boy Deion doesn't end up screwing me over if he plays. Ex-Patriots have been good luck for me though. Adam Vinatieri was the one who hit that FG at the end of the first Indy game to beat the spread when the Colts were already winning by 2. :)

With that said, here are some other games I like. But I may wait till Free Half Point Friday to place any others.

Chicago -3 (If it wasn't -120 I'd take it now) (Edit: Now it's -125!)
Carolina -3
Baltimore -6.5 (I'm going to regret not taking this one right away...)
Philadelphia -6

I'm glad I had a good first week, because now I can ask stupid questions and still hold some measure of respectablity. The main issue I have is with the term "against the spread." Does an ATS record include ALL games in which a spread is used no matter if its a + or -, or is it only based on wagers placed on either favorites or dogs. I assume it's on all games, but I just wanted clarification to avoid making a further ass of myself. Thanks!

And GL this week everyone! :cheers:
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With ya on the Giants and against ya on the Packers. Those are the only 2 games we have that match, but I am with ya on your lean towards Baltimore. I have it at -7 +111 and still feel great about it. Only thing that scares me is it seems too good to be true. GL this weekend! Congrats on the awesome week 2.
Well, it's after 12 which means it's officially...

Free Hook Friday! :bow:

One of my favorite days of the week! :) Taking advantage of it as early as possible, I locked in on the following bets. (Each of the folllowing spreads includes the free hook given to me by my book.)

New York Jets +6 (1 Unit) (2 teams fighting for second place in the AFC East? Points please. May even put a unit on the ML later.

Baltimore -6 (1 Unit) (Jumping on the bandwagon while the ride is still cheap)

Philly -5.5 (1 Unit) (They won't fall apart like they did against the Giants again. They'll more than likely outscore the hell out of SF.)

Cincinnati +2 (1 Unit) (Ok, this one I really have no opinion on, but my dad was on a business trip to Cincinnati the past few days and arrived home tonight with a Bengals shirt for me. I took it as a sign.)

Carolina -3 (1 Unit) (Someone's gotta win this game. It's more of a fade of Tampa than confidence in Carolina. This game doesn't have the free hook btw, since 3 spread games aren't eligable.)

Chicago seems to be getting away from me. Should've made that bet as soon as the lines were up. I think I may give up on it and save my money for some O/U and ML bets, and perhaps another shot at a prop bet. I'll actually get to watch the games this weekend, so it will be a lot more fun. (Assuming I don't lose everything...) I'll definitally take the ML for Tennessee if it stays over +500. Worth a shot.

GL! :cheers:
Added a couple longshots

Green Bay ML +250 (.5 Units)
Tennessee ML +500 (.5 Units)

I'm sorry. But if you're going to pit one 0-2 team against another 0-2 team, and give one of them +500! I'll hit that SO fast... Green Bay I just honestly think can win this one flat out.

I seem to be lucky on O/Us, so let's add a couple of those too.

Minnesota/Chicago OVER 34.5 (1 Unit)
(Well there's a fun surprise. I didn't realize Free Hook Friday applied to O/U as well as ATS bets...)

Baltimore/Cleveland OVER 33 (1 Unit)

Aaaannd... Locked.
Ok, I was a little drunk tonight and in an effort to show off my awesome sportsbookingness I made another bet. Despite already having way too much money tied up in bets already. Figured it was only fair that I posted this one as well, since it's gonna count, drunk or not.

Washington -4

My reasoning - A friend of mine was bragging about Clinton Portis on his fantasy team. That seemed like a good enough reason as any to bet on Washington.

:drink: :drink: :drink:
Well it's almost 3 AM Saturday Night/Sunday Morning, the games start in 10 hours, and my book still doesn't have the damn props up yet. I'm tired of waiting so it looks like I'm waking up early tomorrow... :7_11_4:

Let's all win big this weekend! :cheers:
Here's what I decided to go with. I wanted to play the prop on a game I didn't have any other action on, so I took

Edgerrin James +15.5 Rushing Yards vs. Steven Jackson -105 (1 Unit)
Well, if the games ended at Halftime, I'd have won 7 of the 8 bets I have going right now. Too bad there's a second half...

Of course I'd be happy just to split them. They're all real close. (Erm... except Carolina and Washington...)
Great start to the day! :cheers: Carolina let me down in the second half, but I couldn't believe the Vikings & Bears pulled through to just make the over. I was lucky to make the bet on Free Hook Friday because the line was at 35, so I got the over at 34.5. Final score: 19-16 :smiley_acbe:

1:15 Game Results!

Green Bay +7 (Hook) money; (+1 Unit)
Washington -4 money; (+1 Unit)
Cincinnati +2 money; (+1 Unit)
New York Jets +6 money; (+1 Unit)
Packers ML +250 money; (+1.25 Units)
Chicago/Minnesota Over 34.5 money; (+1 Unit)

Carolina -3 :down: (-1 Unit)
Tennessee ML +500 :down: (-0.5 Units) SO close on this one...

Overall +4.75 Units

GL on the rest of the day!
Rest of the day... not spectacular.

Philly -5.5 money; (+1 Unit)
Edgerrin James +15.5 Rushing Yards vs. Steven Jackson -105 money; (+1 Unit)

NY Giants +3.5 :down: (-2 Units)
Baltimore -6 :down: (-1 Unit)
Baltimore/Cleveland OVER 33 :down: (-1 Unit)

Total 4:15: (-2 Units)
Overall Today (+2.75 Units)

However, here's where things get tricky. I went to a bar tonight to watch the Pats game, and before I left I made 2 prop bets.

1) The first score of the game will be Field Goal or Safety +120 (0.5 Unit)
2) Total pass receptions made by Ben Watson Over 4 +140 (0.5 Unit)

Now, BOTH of these bets won. The Ben Watson bet is still pending, but the Field Goal bet has been graded as a loss which is absolutlely not true. So before I can record these bets, I have some angry words for some customer service people. Even if I get screwed on that bet, I still came out ahead today, and tomorrows bet on Atlanta will be the last bet I EVER place with this particular book. Pinny, here I come!

Well, I sure suck at picking Monday Night Football games, but I'm a wiz at knowing when to bail out of them.

Atlanta -3 :down: (-1 Unit)

No Team Would Score 3 Time Unanswered :down: (-0.5 Units)

However watching Atlanta get stomped in the first half, I was more than willing to jump ship and take New Orleans +5 at the half. (+5? What game were they watching?) So I made at least a portion of my losses back with

2'nd Half New Orleans +5 money; (+1 Unit)

Finally got paid on both my Watson prop and the Field Goal prop, so my weekend wasn't as bad as I thought it'd be. Ended up just a little over +3 Units.

Wish they'd put next week's lines up soon.