Week 3 Discussion

[Marlo]

We know a bit about these teams now. Lets discuss

NFL Hide [TABLE="class: matchupBox"]
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[TD="colspan: 2"]NFL - Sep 19 [/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 2"]NFL - WEEK 3 - THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 19TH [/TD]
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[TD="class: leftColumn"]Time[/TD]
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<tbody>
[TD="class: rotCell oddCell"]#[/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell evenCell"]Teams[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell oddCell"]Spread[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell evenCell"]Total[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell oddCell"]Odds[/TD]
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[TR="class: evenRow"]
[TD="class: leftColumn"]<small>5:25 PM</small> [/TD]
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<tbody>
[TD="class: rotCell"]301 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]KANSAS CITY[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1628005_1_0_3_105_NFL"> +3+105 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1628005_1_2_-50.5_-110_NFL"> o50½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Props
[/TD]

[TD="class: rotCell"]302 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]PHILADELPHIA[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1628005_1_1_-3_-125_NFL"> -3-125 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1628005_1_3_50.5_-110_NFL"> u50½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Stats
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[TD="colspan: 2"]NFL - Sep 22 [/TD]
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[TD="colspan: 2"]NFL - WEEK 3 - SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 22ND [/TD]
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[TR="class: labels"]
[TD="class: leftColumn"]Time[/TD]
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<tbody>
[TD="class: rotCell oddCell"]#[/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell evenCell"]Teams[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell oddCell"]Spread[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell evenCell"]Total[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell oddCell"]Odds[/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"][/TD]

</tbody>

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddRow"]
[TD="class: leftColumn"]<small>10:00 AM</small> [/TD]
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<tbody>
[TD="class: rotCell"]391 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]SAN DIEGO[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626609_1_0_3_100_NFL"> +3EV </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626609_1_2_-44_-110_NFL"> o44-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Props
[/TD]

[TD="class: rotCell"]392 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]TENNESSEE[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626609_1_1_-3_-120_NFL"> -3-120 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626609_1_3_44_-110_NFL"> u44-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Stats
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</tbody>

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenRow"]
[TD="class: leftColumn"]<small>10:00 AM</small> [/TD]
[TD="class: rightColumn"]

<tbody>
[TD="class: rotCell"]393 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]CLEVELAND[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626610_1_0_5_-110_NFL"> +5-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626610_1_2_-40.5_-110_NFL"> o40½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Props
[/TD]

[TD="class: rotCell"]394 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]MINNESOTA[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626610_1_1_-5_-110_NFL"> -5-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626610_1_3_40.5_-110_NFL"> u40½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Stats
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</tbody>

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddRow"]
[TD="class: leftColumn"]<small>10:00 AM</small> [/TD]
[TD="class: rightColumn"]

<tbody>
[TD="class: rotCell"]395 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]TAMPA BAY[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626611_1_0_7_-105_NFL"> +7-105 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626611_1_2_-44.5_-110_NFL"> o44½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Props
[/TD]

[TD="class: rotCell"]396 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]NEW ENGLAND[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626611_1_1_-7_-115_NFL"> -7-115 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626611_1_3_44.5_-110_NFL"> u44½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Stats
[/TD]

</tbody>

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenRow"]
[TD="class: leftColumn"]<small>10:00 AM</small> [/TD]
[TD="class: rightColumn"]

<tbody>
[TD="class: rotCell"]397 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]HOUSTON[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626612_1_0_-2.5_-115_NFL"> -2½-115 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626612_1_2_-45_-110_NFL"> o45-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Props
[/TD]

[TD="class: rotCell"]398 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]BALTIMORE[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626612_1_1_2.5_-105_NFL"> +2½-105 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626612_1_3_45_-110_NFL"> u45-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Stats
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</tbody>

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddRow"]
[TD="class: leftColumn"]<small>10:00 AM</small> [/TD]
[TD="class: rightColumn"]

<tbody>
[TD="class: rotCell"]399 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]ST. LOUIS[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626613_1_0_3.5_-110_NFL"> +3½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626613_1_2_-47_-110_NFL"> o47-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Props
[/TD]

[TD="class: rotCell"]400 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]DALLAS[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626613_1_1_-3.5_-110_NFL"> -3½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626613_1_3_47_-110_NFL"> u47-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Stats
[/TD]

</tbody>

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenRow"]
[TD="class: leftColumn"]<small>10:00 AM</small> [/TD]
[TD="class: rightColumn"]

<tbody>
[TD="class: rotCell"]401 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]ARIZONA[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626614_1_0_7_100_NFL"> +7EV </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626614_1_2_-48.5_-110_NFL"> o48½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Props
[/TD]

[TD="class: rotCell"]402 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]NEW ORLEANS[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626614_1_1_-7_-120_NFL"> -7-120 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626614_1_3_48.5_-110_NFL"> u48½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Stats
[/TD]

</tbody>

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddRow"]
[TD="class: leftColumn"]<small>10:00 AM</small> [/TD]
[TD="class: rightColumn"]

<tbody>
[TD="class: rotCell"]403 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]DETROIT[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626615_1_0_1.5_-110_NFL"> +1½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626615_1_2_-49_-110_NFL"> o49-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Props
[/TD]

[TD="class: rotCell"]404 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]WASHINGTON[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626615_1_1_-1.5_-110_NFL"> -1½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626615_1_3_49_-110_NFL"> u49-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Stats
[/TD]

</tbody>

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenRow"]
[TD="class: leftColumn"]<small>10:00 AM</small> [/TD]
[TD="class: rightColumn"]

<tbody>
[TD="class: rotCell"]405 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]GREEN BAY[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Props
[/TD]

[TD="class: rotCell"]406 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]CINCINNATI[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Stats
[/TD]

</tbody>

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddRow"]
[TD="class: leftColumn"]<small>10:00 AM</small> [/TD]
[TD="class: rightColumn"]

<tbody>
[TD="class: rotCell"]407 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]NY GIANTS[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626617_1_0_1.5_-110_NFL"> +1½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626617_1_2_-45.5_-110_NFL"> o45½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Props
[/TD]

[TD="class: rotCell"]408 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]CAROLINA[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626617_1_1_-1.5_-110_NFL"> -1½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626617_1_3_45.5_-110_NFL"> u45½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Stats
[/TD]

</tbody>

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenRow"]
[TD="class: leftColumn"]<small>1:05 PM</small> [/TD]
[TD="class: rightColumn"]

<tbody>
[TD="class: rotCell"]409 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]ATLANTA[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626618_1_0_2_-110_NFL"> +2-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626618_1_2_-44_-110_NFL"> o44-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Props
[/TD]

[TD="class: rotCell"]410 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]MIAMI[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626618_1_1_-2_-110_NFL"> -2-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626618_1_3_44_-110_NFL"> u44-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Stats
[/TD]

</tbody>

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddRow"]
[TD="class: leftColumn"]<small>1:25 PM</small> [/TD]
[TD="class: rightColumn"]

<tbody>
[TD="class: rotCell"]411 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]INDIANAPOLIS[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626619_1_0_10.5_-110_NFL"> +10½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626619_1_2_-45.5_-110_NFL"> o45½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Props
[/TD]

[TD="class: rotCell"]412 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]SAN FRANCISCO[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626619_1_1_-10.5_-110_NFL"> -10½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626619_1_3_45.5_-110_NFL"> u45½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Stats
[/TD]

</tbody>

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenRow"]
[TD="class: leftColumn"]<small>1:25 PM</small> [/TD]
[TD="class: rightColumn"]

<tbody>
[TD="class: rotCell"]413 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]JACKSONVILLE[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626620_1_0_19.5_-110_NFL"> +19½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626620_1_2_-40.5_-110_NFL"> o40½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Props
[/TD]

[TD="class: rotCell"]414 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]SEATTLE[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626620_1_1_-19.5_-110_NFL"> -19½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626620_1_3_40.5_-110_NFL"> u40½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Stats
[/TD]

</tbody>

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddRow"]
[TD="class: leftColumn"]<small>1:25 PM</small> [/TD]
[TD="class: rightColumn"]

<tbody>
[TD="class: rotCell"]415 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]BUFFALO[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626621_1_0_2.5_-110_NFL"> +2½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626621_1_2_-39_-110_NFL"> o39-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Props
[/TD]

[TD="class: rotCell"]416 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]NY JETS[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626621_1_1_-2.5_-110_NFL"> -2½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626621_1_3_39_-110_NFL"> u39-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Stats
[/TD]

</tbody>

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: evenRow"]
[TD="class: leftColumn"]<small>5:30 PM</small> [/TD]
[TD="class: rightColumn"]

<tbody>
[TD="class: rotCell"]417 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]CHICAGO[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Props
[/TD]

[TD="class: rotCell"]418 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]PITTSBURGH[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Stats
[/TD]

</tbody>

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: banner"]
[TD="colspan: 2"]NFL - Sep 23 [/TD]
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[TR="class: banner"]
[TD="colspan: 2"]NFL - WEEK 3 - MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 23TH [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: labels"]
[TD="class: leftColumn"]Time[/TD]
[TD="class: rightColumn"]

<tbody>
[TD="class: rotCell oddCell"]#[/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell evenCell"]Teams[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell oddCell"]Spread[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell evenCell"]Total[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell oddCell"]Odds[/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"][/TD]

</tbody>

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: oddRow"]
[TD="class: leftColumn"]<small>5:40 PM</small> [/TD]
[TD="class: rightColumn"]

<tbody>
[TD="class: rotCell"]419 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]OAKLAND[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626623_1_0_14.5_-111_NFL"> +14½-111 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626623_1_2_-49.5_-110_NFL"> o49½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]
[TD="class: tabCell"] Props
[/TD]

[TD="class: rotCell"]420 [/TD]
[TD="class: teamCell"]DENVER[/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626623_1_1_-14.5_-109_NFL"> -14½-109 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"]<label><input name="game" class="chkbox" type="checkbox" value="1626623_1_3_49.5_-110_NFL"> u49½-110 </label> [/TD]
[TD="class: selectCell"] [/TD]

</tbody>

[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[Marlo]

Chicago/Pitt should be pk -3 for Chicago

Cincy should be pk to +3

 

[Marlo]

I think there is some serious value this week in some of these lines.

 

[Marlo]

How would you guys rate Seattle's home field advantage? Most teams get 3-4 pts, I could make a case they could get closer to 6-7.

 

[nbafan88]

Seattle Seahawks Have the Strongest Home Field Advantage in the League, But Why?


By JASON LISK July 10, 2013 1:55 pm ET

Earlier this week, Joe Fortenbaugh of the National Football Post took a look at home field advantage over the last five years by comparing both home and road “against the spread” marks versus actual results. I applaud Fortenbaugh for looking at both sides of the issue (home and road performance) because half of what we call home field advantage might also be as accurately termed road team disadvantage.


Based on the last five years, no team has had as large a differential in its home/road performance as the Seattle Seahawks, compared to public expectation as measured by point spreads. Point spreads already account for some home advantage. Seattle, for example, averaged being favored by 0.4 points at home, but were a 5.0 point underdog away from 2008 to 2012. That shows a difference of 5.4 points, which once you half it, is similar to the roughly 2.5 to 3 point difference generally attributed to home field advantage in the point spread.


The question, then, is whether this is a market inefficiency when it comes to Seattle, and whether the public is properly accounting for the home field advantage in Seattle. According to Fortenbaugh, Seattle was 4.2 points better than expected at home over those five years, and 2.9 worse than expected on the road. That difference of 7.1 points away from expectation is easily the largest in the league.


This is not a new phenomenon. One way is to look at another independent set of information, in this case, the separate five year period before that measured. The years 2003 to 2007 largely featured a different coach (Holmgren), different players (Shaun Alexander, Darrell Jackson, Walter Jones, etc.), and largely different fortunes. Those teams from 2003 to 2007 made the playoffs every season, while the more recent Seahawks teams had losing records until last year’s breakthrough.


From 2003 to 2007, using the same measure as Fortenbaugh uses, the Seahawks were +2.4 points better than expected at home, and -1.2 points worse than expected on the road, for a difference of +3.6 points. I did not run all of the teams for that prior period but am confident in saying that Seattle also had one of the largest home/road splits for the previous five years as well. A couple of outlying results on the road (who can forget this beatdown of the Eagles on Monday Night) really skew the average, but typically, Seattle failed to cover on the road.


In fact, the road “against the spread” records were identical for the two periods: 15-24-1 for each. At home, the Seahawks were 22-15-3 from 2003-2007, and 26-13-1. Add it all up, and if all you did was know nothing about football but just blindly took the home team in a regular season game involving Seattle over the last decade, you would have won 61.9% of the time.





If you flipped a coin 160 times and got heads 62% of the time, you would conclude the coin was rigged. In this case, home field advantage is not identical for Seattle as it is for other teams. Why is that? As with many things, there is not one simple answer, but multiple factors are playing a role. Here are what I believe to be the largest causes for home field advantage/road disadvantage for teams playing in Seattle.


THE CROWD AND STADIUM STRUCTURE: Does this play a role in the home field advantage? I am sure it does. I am also sure that it is an overstated reason for the effect, and certainly doesn’t explain the counter side of the coin, why Seattle is a poor road team. As the Harvard Sports Collective notes here, the stadium architecture does likely play a noise role versus a place like Gillette Stadium. I am dubious, though, of any belief that something about the fans themselves in Seattle makes the difference; there are passionate fans in many NFL cities.


THE GEOGRAPHIC ISOLATION OF SEATTLE: Chase Stuart wrote about this in December and so I will build off many of those points. I don’t think it is any coincidence that Seattle also happens to be the most geographically isolated location in the NFL. (And on a related point, if the league ever does actually expand to London, my prediction is that team will show the largest home/road splits). The closest NFL location to Seattle to the South is the Bay Area, to the East is Minnesota, and to the Southeast, Denver. In fact, the first thing I ever wrote, when I was just a commenter with a screen name, was about travel distances and home field advantage. Which leads to . . .


SEATTLE IS A UNIQUE CLIMATE FOR THE NFL: Seattle’s home field advantage has actually increased since they moved outdoors to CenturyLink field. When they played in a dome, they were far from the only team to do so, so that while travel distances and time zones were a factor, a unique weather situation was not.


Here is a look at Seattle’s average weather during football season, using data from weather.com. For comparison, I list weather from two other West Coast teams (San Francisco and San Diego) as well as a Midwest (Kansas City), Great Lakes (Green Bay) and Northeast (New York City) location. The first number under each city is average temperature (Fahrenheit) for each month, the second column is average precipitation (in inches).





San Francisco is, of course, the closest in type of weather. However, Seattle is more than ten degrees cooler by November and December. The precipitation pattern is similar in that both experience more in the later months, though Seattle gets more of it. Early in the season, Seattle is one of the coolest locations, right there with Green Bay. By the end of the season, most of the cities in the Midwest and Northeast have surpassed Seattle, but it is still cooler (and rainier) than the moderate climate teams from the South, Southwest, and Atlantic Coast.


Climate differences do have a large impact, and in Seattle’s case, the climate is sufficiently different from just about every other NFL location that it remains true for Seattle regardless of who they play. If there were teams in Vancouver, Portland, and Tacoma, we would not see the same degree of home field advantage. The question going forward is whether the betting public notices, and lines are adjusted.

 

[Mo]

Why are the Eagles favored AGAIN??

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Hardest card I've seen in years....I've already played Cleveland, and it may be my only play.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Why are the Eagles favored AGAIN??

what would you make this line in KC?

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Chicago/Pitt should be pk -3 for Chicago

Cincy should be pk to +3

GB will almost certainly be -3.

Using Cincy as a barometer, books have Chi 3.5 to 4 neutral against Pitt based off the two lines vs Cincy...Should fall PK at the open Pitt vs Chi

 

[Mo]

what would you make this line in KC?

Hmm good Question. Probably KC -5

 

[JumpOnBoard]

I think there is some serious value this week in some of these lines.

What spots?

 

[Mo]

Gimme some of dat Arizona Tea,
NYG get on track this weekend.

 

[Mo]

Texans/Ravens Over

 

[Lexington 125]

I don't think I can back the Chiefs on the road just yet. Just a little too much hype for this KC team. Eagles offense should be able to move the ball (Dallas did), and I think KC is prone to the big play, which in the Eagles case can come from Shady or Desean. You can make the same case for KC vs the Philly D, but I think I will pay to see if Alex Smith will lead them to victory in a letdown spot here short week traveling off a close home win. Philly can be had through the air but will KC actually sling it? Total looks really high, but I could see it sailing too. I think Eagles ats is my only possible play in this matchup

 

[nbafan88]

Yup. I don't see how you can back the road team in a TNF game when the home team doesn't have to travel after coming off a tough loss.

Then you have Reid returning. Does this matter at all? Who knows.

 

[MusicCityGambler]

First glance I like Houston -2.5, STL+4

 

[Dollaz]

Maybe I'm slow, but Miami is getting a heck of a lot of love. Miami would be less than a td dog @Atlanta?

 

[nbafan88]

What do you mean will KC actually sling it? As long as Reid is there....

 

[nbafan88]

Maybe I'm slow, but Miami is getting a heck of a lot of love. Miami would be less than a td dog @Atlanta?

88% are on Atlanta right now... There is no way in hell Miami is getting a lot of love after Atlantas performance this weekend.

Atlanta is a very fickle team IMO.

 

[twinkie13]

Dallas interests me some...Balty maybe

 

[Hulu]

Baltimore getting 2.5 at home looks tempting against a Houston team that, while 2-0 has looked less than impressive.

San Diego +3 @ Tennessee. Tenny might win this but Rivers and co can keep it close so I'll have to think about taking the field goal with the dog.

Zona getting 7.5 at New Orleans. Should be more like 4.5 IMO

Cleveland looked good but Weeden will likely miss the game leaving Campbell to start....no thanks

I would take Barfalo at +3. Jets aren't in a position to be laying 3 points to anyone other than maybe JAX

 

[Gandolf]

Seattle goes to Houston next week. Looks like a huge letdown spot here.

 

[Mo]

Dog killer had a huge game against the bolts. Maybe the best of his career. I'm interested to see how he performs Thursday.

 

[Mo]

Given the eagles defensive woes. It's not going to be too difficult to keep their offense off the field. I will take the 3.

 

[Mo]

Seattle goes to Houston next week. Looks like a huge letdown spot here.

Agree 100%. They can play on cruise control and still beat the jags

 

[jdoggoakley]

anyone know if the Chargers flew back to SD after Philly, to then fly back to Tenny for another 1:00pm game? I would assume they would just stay on the east coast, but I'm not sure.

 

[biggoob]

Tenny/San Diego over looks like a no brainier....meaning the final will be 7-3
both teams have scored at mid twenties or higher and Tennyson first home game.
total should be 47?

 

[braves]

anyone know if the Chargers flew back to SD after Philly, to then fly back to Tenny for another 1:00pm game? I would assume they would just stay on the east coast, but I'm not sure.

they flew back..

 

[nbafan88]

anyone know if the Chargers flew back to SD after Philly, to then fly back to Tenny for another 1:00pm game? I would assume they would just stay on the east coast, but I'm not sure.

yes they flew back to San Diego. Tennessee is closer to Philly but it's still a good ways away. I don't think it's that big of a deal

 

[braves]

they were probably back in San Diego Sunday night somewhere b/t 8-9 PM local time, so agree not a big deal at all

 

[Toronto_Mike]

Seattle goes to Houston next week. Looks like a huge letdown spot here.

but do you really want to put any money on backing the Jags?

 

[MusicCityGambler]

It's hard to see the Jags getting over 14. If you think they cover or have a good chance to do so it seems like the better alternative might be the Under.

I can't argue with the spot though. It would be very easy for Seattle to be flat here.

 

[twinkie13]

The backdoor is open the entire game in the NFL on spreads like that

based on how close games have been so far league wide, and NFL usually period.....hard not to look at it

for me, i likely won't touch it

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Spoon out, Jackson out. Atlanta is getting banged up. Miami goes 3-0

 

[Marlo]

Hardest card I've seen in years....I've already played Cleveland, and it may be my only play.

Talk to me here boss bet the other side when I saw it right away.

 

[Marlo]

What spots?

I think the books are still over valuing St. Louis.

Baltimore as a home dog.

SD has played 1 bad Quarter out of 8, and there a dog at a Tennessee.

a lot of "better" teams are dogged.

 

[Marlo]

Spoon out, Jackson out. Atlanta is getting banged up. Miami goes 3-0

White's still hobbling

 

[eggman]

but do you really want to put any money on backing the Jags?

No one "wants" to back the Jags but I agree that it's a ton if points and you're ALMOST never out of the hunt for a cover. I'll be in them.

 

[Zeke]

I have grown to hate teasers, meaning I always lose them. Especially in big lined games cause in theory 6 points aren't as valuable if a team is expected to light up an opponent versus what should be closer to a pick 'em. However, 6 pts crosses the 21 & 24 here. May be something to think about...

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Weeden out. Hoyer in.

 

[nbafan88]

I have grown to hate teasers, meaning I always lose them. Especially in big lined games cause in theory 6 points aren't as valuable if a team is expected to light up an opponent versus what should be closer to a pick 'em. However, 6 pts crosses the 21 & 24 here. May be something to think about...

they are called teasers for a reason. It's just not smart longterm

 

[D-Woww]

I win with teasers a ton. All depends on how u bet them. If u use key #'s u can win

 

[Mo]

i'm assuming people will start loading up on the Vikings this weekend. Given this whole T. Rich trade

 

[twinkie13]

I never tease period. Amazed at how many people do it here actually. I know it is an NFl thing as lines are tight, and "free points"....just still amazes me

 

[twinkie13]

they are called teasers for a reason. It's just not smart longterm

I know a guy that bets a ton(he aint the best, but knows what he is doing and can hold a convo)

He looks at the NFL card and bam....he looks at teases first...insane to me, and probably you

Shit there are teaser threads here, so obv popular with NFL

 

[nbafan88]

obviously they are popular, just like parlays are popular

just makes no sense in a league with such parity where any team can beat any team on any sunday

 

[MusicCityGambler]

I know a guy that bets a ton(he aint the best, but knows what he is doing and can hold a convo)

He looks at the NFL card and bam....he looks at teases first...insane to me, and probably you

Shit there are teaser threads here, so obv popular with NFL

I think they're very logical, especially early in a year where there appears to be more parity than usual. I mean hell look at the thread from last week. Faves were 14-2 with a 7 pt tease, dogs were 13-3. It's unlikely that kind of pace can be kept but there is a ton of value if you look to tease the right situation and more importantly I think you need to look to tease against teams just as much as you tease for them. Some teams simply aren't built to win by DD+

Obviously different people have different ways of looking at solving problems.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

The Bills seem to have attracted a big old bandwagon.

 

[Lexington 125]

The Bills seem to have attracted a big old bandwagon.

Does seem they are the popular pick...but then again I'm in Buffalo.



I am going to be on the Bills and likely the team over. Line is low for a reason- EJ's first road start and it's vs a divisional opponent. Bills 2-6 on the road last season. Injuries (I expect Byrd to be out once again). In the end I think this is a good test for the Bills team but they are the play. The Jets defense is definitely improved. Sheldon has been a beast so far, but vs the Patriots the Jet's corners were getting flat out beat. The current wr core for the Bills is head and shoulders above what the Pats had out there. Stevie, Woods are quickly becoming ej's favorite targets but Fred Jackson and Chandler also have 12 targets each. Buffalo is trying to spread the ball around much more. One thing I am wary of is EJ's inability to find the open third option, as he had guys running open further in his progression that he just didn't see. Could be a game where the Bills offense explodes, but at the very least they have the advantage in both the passing and running game. Spiller broke out last week, went for 169 last time @NJ and 130 all purpose last meeting. Though I think running will be tougher in this matchup, I am confident the Bills will establish a good run game to try and get EJ some open looks off play action.

Defensively the secondary played solid. McKelvin is off his best defensive performance ever, and has 7 passes defensed in two games. Searcy was flying around the ball. Would be a great defense with Gilmore and Byrd playing but the backups have really stepped in and played better than expected. A couple boneheaded plays out of the defense but they turned it up second half. The Bills defensive line is better than most think, just depends on when Mario comes to play. Kyle Williams is a beast and is playing great, Dareus even had a couple good hits on Cam. My money is on the Bills front line to pressure Geno into making mistakes. I'm not too afraid of the Jets run game vs the Bills, just hope they come with the same intensity as last week. Kiko Alonso had a solid game a sack, pick & 10 tackles and I think will be key vs Jets. Tes have hurt the Bills D in the past, but I think Winslow gets blanketed. Biggest concern defensively for me is the penalties.



I understand the low lined total given the first two Jets games played, but I think it sails. It all depends on what kind of performance the rookie qbs have. At the moment I think advantage goes to Ej simply because he has more to work with.

 

[CASH]

someone talk to me about Atlanta's defense please.