Week 3 Bases

mrpickem

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Disastrous weekend erased nice 3 day run. Ended the week down a half unit, but the season is not good.

SUNDAY 2-8 -7.0u
YTD 46-46-1 -5.96u
  • 959 New York Mets -1 -161
  • 959 New York Mets/Miami Marlins Under 7½ -120
  • 971 Tampa Bay Rays -126
  • 971 Tampa Bay Rays/Chicago White Sox Under 8 -110
A couple weeks back I isolated 10 pitchers that perform really well for first 3 weeks over 3 years and they are 16-3 this year! Why the hell haven't I just been riding them? Who knows, but I'm on the two going today.

3+ years = SU: 65-23 (1.05, 73.9%)
2+ years = SU: 58-16 (1.35, 78.4%)
1+ years = SU: 42-7 (2.06, 85.7%)
This year = SU: 16-3 (1.74, 84.2%)

Betting side and under has been profitable every year...

View attachment 31993
 
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Haven't played yet but Rox 9-0 over total at home after being shutout at home last 6 years. Rox RL ROI is decent as well

team = Rockies and H and p:H and p:runs = 0 and season >= 2012
SU: 5-4 (1.00, 55.6%) avg line: -116.9 / 106.9 on / against: +$13 / -$66 ROI: +1.2% / -6.5%

RL: 5-4 (1.17, 55.6%) avg line: -102.8 / -110.5 on / against: +$145 / -$202 ROI: +13.1% / -17.9%

OU: 9-0-0 (6.28, 100.0%) avg total: 10.1 over / under: +$900 / -$950 ROI: +87.4% / -100.0%


Aldo Pads 29-19 over total in away division games after scoring 1 or less last game over same 6 years. Also very nice ROI fading SD on ML and RL shown here as well.

team = Padres and A and season >= 2012 and p:runs <= 1 and DIV
SU: 13-35 (-1.83, 27.1%) avg line: 147.9 / -161.7 on / against: -$1,869 / +$1,729 ROI: -38.5% / +22.3%

RL: 20-28 (-0.65, 41.7%) avg line: -141.7 / 128.0 on / against: -$1,839 / +$1,551 ROI: -25.9% / +29.7%

OU: 29-19-0 (2.15, 60.4%) avg total: 8.1 over / under: +$795 / -$1,275 ROI: +14.9% / -24.3%
 
adds
  • 961 San Diego Padres/Colorado Rockies Over 9½ -105
  • 962 Colorado Rockies -1½ +108
  • 965 Detroit Tigers +250
  • 965 Detroit Tigers +1½ +110
  • 965 Detroit Tigers/Cleveland Indians Over 6½ -115
Tribe poor record vs lefties, Kluber has had early season troubles last 2 years although he pitched good first time out. Cle averages 3 runs per game while DET 4.5rpg...plus ump is 0-4 all time for home team when temp below 50 in day game

t:team = Tigers and season > 2014 and A and oA(runs) <= 3.5 and tA(runs) > 4.5
SU: 11-4 (1.20, 73.3%) avg line: 108.1 / -119.5 on / against: +$662 / -$752 ROI: +38.8% / -44.7%

RL: 11-4 (1.10, 73.3%) avg line: -116.9 / 101.9 on / against: +$904 / -$956 ROI: +43.5% / -50.3%

OU: 12-3-0 (2.47, 80.0%) avg total: 8.3 over / under: +$845 / -$1,000 ROI: +50.0% / -61.9%
 
tried to find a reason to back braves, but just couldn't fade max here in the cold...well maybe I'm fading them both since I'm taking..
  • 955 Atlanta Braves/Washington Nationals* Over 7½ -111

Bucknor favors over - link

...and Julio stacks up overs in at start of last 3+ seasons
View attachment 32015
 
Whole card:
  • 959 New York Mets -1 -161✔️
  • 959 New York Mets/Miami Marlins Under 7½ -120✔️
  • 971 Tampa Bay Rays -126 ✔️
  • 971 Tampa Bay Rays/Chicago White Sox Under 8 -110 ❌
  • 961 San Diego Padres/Colorado Rockies Over 9½ -105 ✔️
  • 962 Colorado Rockies -1½ +108 ❌
  • 965 Detroit Tigers +250 ❌
  • 965 Detroit Tigers +1½ +110 ❌
  • 965 Detroit Tigers/Cleveland Indians Over 6½ -115 ❌
  • 955 Atlanta Braves/Washington Nationals Over 7½ -111 ❌
Good luck all!
 
Last edited:
mrpickem said:
Whole card:
  • 959 New York Mets -1 -161
  • 959 New York Mets/Miami Marlins Under 7½ -120
  • 971 Tampa Bay Rays -126 ✔️
  • 971 Tampa Bay Rays/Chicago White Sox Under 8 -110 ❌
  • 961 San Diego Padres/Colorado Rockies Over 9½ -105
  • 962 Colorado Rockies -1½ +108
  • 965 Detroit Tigers +250
  • 965 Detroit Tigers +1½ +110
  • 965 Detroit Tigers/Cleveland Indians Over 6½ -115
  • 955 Atlanta Braves/Washington Nationals* Over 7½ -111
Good luck all!

Home opener at Wrigley today lol
y54mludrrvq01.jpg
Click to expand...
BRRRR.....
 
Disastrous weekend eased into a losing Monday...still waiting to sustain a win streak. I may be down 12.5% of bank but definitely not out. Baseball is a marathon, not a sprint.

MONDAY 4-6 -2.36u
YTD 50-52-1 -8.32u

  • 914 Chicago White Sox -103
  • 913 Tampa Bay Rays/Chicago White Sox Over 8 -120
  • 915 Detroit Tigers +175
  • 915 Detroit Tigers/Cleveland Indians Over 8½ +105

ChiSox on 4 game losing streak but Snell terrible in April(1-6 last 3 years), also Rays history after 1 run win on road vs same team.

I'm gonna try fading favs from -170 to -199 when opponent starter off quality start, this has returned over 21% ROI since 2010.

Another consideration with SDQL ROI is that it is based on 20 cent old school lines, most educated players play dime lines now and occasional overnight nickle lines. This translates into higher ROI both for and against any situation, compared to what is returned with current SDQL query landscape.

Good luck playas!

:smiledrinkbeer:
 
TUEDAY 1-8 -7.73u
YTD 51-60-1 -16.05u

I'm no pro/expert, but I'm definitely better than this. Last 4 days a real shit storm. I'm still cranking along though. Starting today I am going to alter my money management/ unit allocation. What I always do is flat bet(for the most part) 1.5% of bank at start of the day. So every day I adjust unit value to whatever bankroll is. The change I am making is everything is going to be risking 1 unit, in the past dogs were risking 1u and favs were to win 1u. I know it's about picking winners, but at least this way I wont shy away from bigger juice. It's easier to bet a unit to win .4 than to risk 2.5u to win 1...psychologically.


Code: 
Examples...not wagers

$100 to win  $95.24  965 Houston Astros/Minnesota Twins  Under 8½ -105

$100 to win $250.00  971 Detroit Tigers  +250

$100 to win  $69.44  961 New York Mets  -144

$100 to win  $51.28  975 New York Yankees  +1½ -195
 
All it takes is one or two nights to turn it around, Mr. P...one thing I’ve found dabbling in SDQL that helps (for me personally) is refining my searches to the last 3-5 seasons (sometimes up to 6 or 7) based on broader category searches for my data analysis.

You’ve got a strong model set up for success in this sport so keep pushing, pal. BOL today.
 
scarf31 said:
All it takes is one or two nights to turn it around, Mr. P...one thing I’ve found dabbling in SDQL that helps (for me personally) is refining my searches to the last 3-5 seasons (sometimes up to 6 or 7) based on broader category searches for my data analysis.

You’ve got a strong model set up for success in this sport so keep pushing, pal. BOL today.
Click to expand...

Thanks scarf. I typically run team models 5 years and pitcher models 2-3. There is no easy path, but eventually I will have a hot streak, I know this from 25+ years in the game.
 
holy board
  • 955 San Diego Padres +140 2.40 ❌
  • 955 San Diego Padres/Colorado Rockies Over 11½ -110 1.909 ❌
  • 958 San Francisco Giants +1½ -160 1.625 ❌
  • 963 Pittsburgh Pirates +171 2.71 ❌
  • 965 Houston Astros -162 1.617 ❌
  • 971 Detroit Tigers +255 3.55 ❌
  • 975 New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox Under 8 -110 1.909 ❌
  • 976 Boston Red Sox -108 1.926 ❌
  • 977 Los Angeles Angels -107 1.935 ✔️
  • 977 Los Angeles Angels/Texas Rangers Over 11½ -101 1.99 ❌
  • 979 Oakland Athletics +178 2.78 ✔️
 
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TUEDAY 2-9 -6.285u
YTD 53-69-1 -22.335u

Words can't describe...jeeze, whos parade did I piss on. 9-31 last 4 days and down over 23.5 units. This is the definition for adversity because it would be so easy to back away from the table. But, I see hope as I did hit 2 of last 3...even if I was 1-16 before that. lol

This is what we call a market correction and I'm down ~ 25% of bank. I couldn't pick this bad if I wanted to.

Anyways...no chasing, just 1 unit each game...albeit a lower unit value

  • 909 Detroit Tigers +171
  • 909 Detroit Tigers/Cleveland Indians* Over 7½ -110
 
Pirates leading div and Williams has pitched good. Hendricks notorious slow starter.
f1b71d19-4ad7-46e4-9440-50ddb9dafa3d.png


Cant resist. Wind blowing out to left..possible over

  • 901 Pittsburgh Pirates +175
  • 901 Pittsburgh Pirates +1½ -125
View attachment 32042
 
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Hell yeah, I'm on a roll 4 of 5 :abouttime:
Gonna take sox with better pitcher at home rubber game. Gray has been early season over machine as well
  • 912 Boston Red Sox +102
  • 911 New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox Over 9 -115
Here's rest of starters tonight record last 3 years in teams first 30 games. Porc, Wacha and Gio look good...while Ian and Trop are fades
View attachment 32051
 
this will do it

  • 915 Los Angeles Angels -152
  • 915 Los Angeles Angels/Kansas City Royals Over 9½ -122
 
Whole card:
  • 901 Pittsburgh Pirates +175 ✔️
  • 901 Pittsburgh Pirates +1½ -125 ✔️
  • 906 Washington Nationals -180 ❌
  • 906 Washington Nationals -1½ +110 ❌
  • 909 Detroit Tigers +171 ❌
  • 909 Detroit Tigers/Cleveland Indians* Over 7½ -110 ✔️
  • 912 Boston Red Sox +102 ✔️
  • 911 New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox Over 9 -115
  • 915 Los Angeles Angels -152 ✔️
  • 915 Los Angeles Angels/Kansas City Royals Over 9½ -122 ❌
  • 907 San Francisco Giants -135 ✔️
  • 907 San Francisco Giants -1½ +115 ✔️



View attachment 32054
 
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If I could have gotten plus money I would have played him too. Why you played Gio is a mystery
 
tuck321 said:
If I could have gotten plus money I would have played him too. Why you played Gio is a mystery
Click to expand...

Yeah, he has good early season and cool weather numbers plus he was 4-1 vs rox at home...but obviously a bad call. I capped under all the way but layed off because of the wind.
 
THURSDAY 7-4-1 +4.03u
YTD 60-73-2 -18.305u

Decent night but could have been better, Yanks and Halos should have both went over...oh well, on to Friday

  • 955 Colorado Rockies +1½ -120
  • 955 Colorado Rockies +159
  • 955 Colorado Rockies/Washington Nationals Over 9 -120

Dog Spot
Freeland on road has been good and Nats as home favs bomb in a couple diff scenarios
 
Translation. At home in April they usually go under. Day off. Just played a very high scoring game. Seems reasonableGL
 
Not totally sold on Tillman but I'll run a flyer at +220...love tribe in this spot as they've handle Stroman without run support
  • 968 Cleveland Indians -140
  • 969 Baltimore Orioles +220

Tribe link and another

team = Orioles and AD and line >= 175 and o:STL and NGT
SU: 10-17 (-1.44, 37.0%) avg line: 209.6 / -243.4 on / against: +$477 / -$820 ROI: +17.7% / -12.4%

RL: 12-13 (-0.18, 48.0%) avg line: 105.5 / -117.8 on / against: +$20 / -$169 ROI: +0.8% / -5.7%

OU: 11-14-2 (-0.96, 44.0%) avg total: 9.1 over / under: -$422 / +$200 ROI: -14.2% / +6.7%
 
last 7pm play
  • 959 Pittsburgh Pirates -130

No sql needed, this line just oozes of value...two teams going in opposite directions
 
  • 975 Los Angeles Angels -1½ +104
o:team = Royals and AF and line >= -170 and STL and NGT
SU: 62-37 (1.40, 62.6%) avg line: -132.3 / 122.3 on / against: +$1,383 / -$1,751 ROI: +10.6% / -17.7%

RL: 41-33 (0.07, 55.4%) avg line: 124.4 / -138.3 on / against: +$1,806 / -$2,399 ROI: +23.6% / -23.0%

OU: 44-51-4 (0.18, 46.3%) avg total: 8.9 over / under: -$1,190 / +$270 ROI: -11.0% / +2.5%
 
Wanted this one for 2u but the number is so low and it cost 50 cents just to move it a half run, so I'll stick to a unit

  • 963 Arizona Diamondbacks/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 6½ +111

Many queries pointed to this...team and pitcher wise
http://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...HF+and+game+number+<=+35&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
http://killersports.com/mlb/query?s...+<=+35+and+total+<=+7.5+&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query...+and+season+>+2016+and+A&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query...+and+season+>+2016+and+H&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
 
Whole card:
  • 951 Atlanta Braves. +1½ -120 ✔️
  • 955 Colorado Rockies +1½ -120 ✔️
  • 955 Colorado Rockies +159 ✔️
  • 955 Colorado Rockies/Washington Nationals Over 9 -120 ❌
  • 968 Cleveland Indians -140 ❌
  • 969 Baltimore Orioles +220 ❌
  • 959 Pittsburgh Pirates -130 ❌
  • 954 Cincinnati Reds +1½ -115 ❌
  • 973 Texas Rangers/Houston Astros Under 8½ +105 ✔️
  • 975 Los Angeles Angels -1½ +104 ❌
  • 963 Arizona Diamondbacks/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 6½ +111 (2 units) ❌
  • 964 Los Angeles Dodgers -150 ❌
 
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Fuck it, I like the ump ok...gonna take Dodgers and make it 2u on under. I know dbacks swept LAD a week ago and they lead division, but I like Maeda and Greinke's on borrowed time. Zona is good and line probably higher than it should be, but that dont mean Dodgers wont win

  • 964 Los Angeles Dodgers -150
  • 963 Arizona Diamondbacks/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 6½ +111
View attachment 32074
 
Early stuff and more...
  • 902 Washington Nationals -197 ✔️
  • 904 Cincinnati Reds +110 ❌
  • 905 Atlanta Braves +167 ❌
  • 915 Baltimore Orioles +139 ❌
  • 913 Arizona Diamondbacks/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 7 -110
  • 923 Texas Rangers/Houston Astros Under 8 +105 ❌
 
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Been on the road today...probably a good thing as I've had a bad run. Anyways I'm gonna take stros tonight parlayed with under.
View attachment 32083

16-5 a home fav at night with line -200 or more both SU and under. Query for 5 years but results only show from 2015 on. Astros sucked so bad 13-14 they were never a -200 favorite ;)

View attachment 32082
 
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