Week 2 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Weak beginning to the year, as the numbered picks went 3-6. After going 1-1 in week zero, that brings the yearly total to 4-7, so we have a hole to dig out from. That's happened before though, so not to worry(???)

I've noticed a few people saying something to the effect of "Wow, Ohio State didn't even play well and they beat the #1 team in the country." This is clearly true, but it really underscores just how putrid Arch Manning's performance was in that game. When Texas ran the ball, generally, good things happened. Their defense was extremely good, especially against Jeremiah Smith for the second time in a row. The problem was Manning, and I'll even say his passing, which was laughably scattershot, wasn't even the worst part of his game. We all know he has the ability to run, but his effort on runs in that game were as effeminate as I can ever remember seeing. The 3rd quarter drive in which he was stopped at the goal line was the best example. On second down, from the OSU 4 yard line, Sarkisian called a QB draw. Arch basically caught the snap, staggered forward and fell down. Baxter then followed with a tough run down to the half yard line to set up the 4th down, which was a sneak that Manning made an even worse attempt than the stagger 2 plays earlier. He basically gave Texas no chance on two of those downs because he was so soft and timid. The correct summation of that game is more accurately stated as "Texas had one of the softest Qb performances of the past 10 years, and yet they should have beaten the defending national champions on the road."

One other thing: Now please understand that I am biased and in the tank for my alma mater, but Luke Altmyer operates in total anonymity for a 3rd year starting QB coming off a very good season playing for a top 15 team. He is currently 400/1 at Bet Rivers to win the Heisman. Now, I know he isn't going to win the Heisman, but take a look at some of the people who have lower or the same odds than he does to win the award:

Jayden Maiava (40/1...TEN TIMES lower)
Ty Simpson (40/1)
Steve Angeli (60/1)
"Mike" Gronowski (100/1)
Mikey Keene (100/1)
Austin Mack (120/1)
Aidan Chiles (150/1)
Michael Hawkins Jr (150/1)
Rickie Collins (180/1) --The backup QB at Syracuse has odds less than half of Altmyer.
Jaden Rashada (200/1) Sac State QB
Zach Calzada (250/1)
Brendan Sorsby (250/1) 13 completions for 69 yards last week
Billy Edwards Jr (300/1)
Dylan Edwards (300/1)--Not currently playing
Hank Brown(400/1)
Hauss Hejny (400/1)

Alright, enough bitching. On to the week.

Northern Illinois +17 WIN
NC State -2.5 WIN
Iowa +3 PUSH
Baylor +2.5 WIN
Duke +3 LOSS
Kansas +7 LOSS
Rutgers -15 WIN
Colorado -23.5 WIN
UTSA -3.5 LOSS
Ohio +3.5 WIN
Virginia Tech -2 LOSS
Boston College +4 WIN
Mississippi State +6.5 WIN

8-4-1





1. Northern Illinois +17 @Maryland (BR): I actually played a season win total OVER 4.5 wins for Maryland this year, which I think I was in the minority on because many people were very down on Maryland. So much so that they were only a 2 TD favorite over FAU, who had some juice because Zack Kittley runs a fun offense, but who was completely starting over on defense. It turns out that true Frosh Malik Washington got the start for Lockley and Co and he looked pretty good on the surface. The Terps also were able to put the clamps on that FAU offense, which was clearly out of sync. Getting back to the offense though, any offense with a pulse should have rained points on FAU all night, and on closer inspection, the Terps really weren't that good. They ran for only 112 yards on 30 carries and that number includes no lost sack yardage. FAU will almost certainly end up in the bottom 20 in FBS in run defense, so that performance was not good. Also, Washington, despite throwing 3 short TD passes, only averaged 6.0 yards per attempt and had a QBR of only 48/5 out of a possible 100. Maryland will see a major step up in class on defense this week against the Huskies who always play well on defense, and are coming off their usual stinker performance as a home favorite against Holy Cross. However, as usual, they were stout on defense, giving up only 218 total yards. I think Maryland will have to work extremely hard for points, and as long as the Huskies can get anything going on the ground, I like their chances to keep it close. Thomas Hammock is 16-6 ATS as a road dog since he's been at Northern, so they are in their element here, and the somewhat misleading narrative on Maryland's offensive performance last week against a completely inferior FAU defense might be inflating this line a bit.

This went about how you'd figure. Maryland faced a more stout defense but the NIU offense was nowhere near good enough to threaten for the outright. 17 was too many.
 
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2. Iowa +3 @Iowa State (BOL): All the 3.5's are pretty much gone, but I'll take the FG here. This is more of a feel play because we have no idea what Mark Gronowski is capable of at the FBS level against a competent defense. He did zilch last week against Albany, but Iowa hardly even threw the ball, playing it very close to the vest. This series has been dominated by the road team lately, as the guests have covered 10 of the last 12 with several outright upsets. Iowa State looked very good in a tough spot last week off a tough travel scenario in Dublin but still smacked around South Dakota. Everything is looking up for the Clones! They won the opener, are off to a 1-0 record in conference and even put the screws to an annoying FCS squad against all odds. Now they have an Iowa team that couldn't hit the broad side of a barn in the passing game last week. What could go wrong?? Well, Iowa's defense is primed for a much improved year, they have the best special teams in the country and they are motivated to erase the memory of the 1 point home loss to these assholes last year. I'll take the 3 here.

That last drive by Gronowski was an abomination. Just totally inept. He looks worse than what Iowa has trotted out there over the past decade. If you got 3.5 you won anyway. Gonna have to watch that Iowa defense closely because it looks like they'll have to be elite for Iowa to be a threat to beat good teams.
 
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I am so confused by your alma mater. They are highly ranked so it's not like they are some secret. The biggest part of me wants to put life on hold and figure out in this world of gambling...how and why are they getting treated the way they are? And I can't even define that! Likely the result of basically the entire top 12 in ESPN rankings are SEC/Big Ten so I guess they're just upper middles but it's hard to know anything about them.

Iowa/ISU always dog and under, pretty simple. They actually did go over the 36.5 points last year with 39 ffs. Likely will be a game decided by ISU offense v UI defense, the flipside of those two sides have insane amounts of holes.
 
Crazy that ISU opened 1.5 and it actually climbed to 3.5. Not sure why they put the hook on there for a bit knowing resistance would be standing around that campfire
 
KJ said:
I am so confused by your alma mater. They are highly ranked so it's not like they are some secret. The biggest part of me wants to put life on hold and figure out in this world of gambling...how and why are they getting treated the way they are? And I can't even define that! Likely the result of basically the entire top 12 in ESPN rankings are SEC/Big Ten so I guess they're just upper middles but it's hard to know anything about them.

Iowa/ISU always dog and under, pretty simple. They actually did go over the 36.5 points last year with 39 ffs. Likely will be a game decided by ISU offense v UI defense, the flipside of those two sides have insane amounts of holes.
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Yeah it's interesting. College Football media slobbers on them but any gambling talking head is reflexively fading them. I understand it, because going against the consensus of the CFB media is never a bad idea, but h contrast between the two factions is pretty stark. If Duke stays at 3.5, it's going to be hard for me to resist taking the home dog there.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
Yeah it's interesting. College Football media slobbers on them but any gambling talking head is reflexively fading them. I understand it, because going against the consensus of the CFB media is never a bad idea, but h contrast between the two factions is pretty stark. If Duke stays at 3.5, it's going to be hard for me to resist taking the home dog there.
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Oh I doubt I bet the game but will have it on somewhere on a tv or the laptop because the whole episode is racking my brain.
 
3. Baylor +2.5 @SMU: I realize a ton of people are on this, but I really think Baylor is the right side here. Defensively, especially against the run, the Bears were horrific and they could not get a stop to save their lives when they needed one. They also gave up a back breaking kickoff return late. Offensively, Sawyer Robinson and the Baylor offense looked how we saw them look in the second half of last year. He threw for 400+ and 5 different solid receiving options have emerged there. Now they face an SMU team that didn't look very good against East Texas A&M. Baylor couldn't stop Jackson Arnold on the ground last week, but SMU didn't run it well at all against ETAM (3.1 yards per carry) and Kevin Jennings isn't looking to run all over the place. As I mentioned, Baylor was humming on offense against a significantly better defense in Auburn than SMU has coming back, and they are desperate to get a win here. Aranda will almost certainly have a better plan than he had defensively last week, and college kids that get embarrassed one week usually bounce back the next. I'm still high on Baylor even though they burned me last week. They need to do whatever they can to avoid going 0-2, and I'm still high on them overall, so I'll take the desperate team getting a couple points.

That Baylor defense is legit horrific but Sawyer Robinson and the offense is electric. I remember the days when Aranda had effective defenses. GREAT resolve by Baylor though. 600+ yards on the road. Thought this one was dead, but like a phoenix from the ashes....
 
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4. @Duke +3 v Illinois: I have to admit this is a bit of an emotional hedge, but how can you go against Duke in a spot like this? The Blue Devils are 6-1 as a home dog since the start of 2022 and they just find ways to win at home, even if they lose the box score, which has happened many times. The only losses at home during that span where the famous horrific bad beat by 7 to Notre Dame (which I lost when ND sprung a last minute TD when actually trying to set up a FG and then Riley Leonard's leg got turned into a pretzel on the ensuing drive)and the 1 point loss last year to SMU. Everything else they've found a way to win. Also, the last time Manny Diaz faced Luke Altmyer as Penn State's DC, Altmyer had his worst game by a mile at Illinois, throwing 4 picks. Altmyer is much better now, but Diaz's scheme is the kind that can give Illinois trouble, and I'm sure Diaz will be exuding confidence in front of his defense in meetings. The Illinois line is improved, but I don't know that they can just line up and bulldoze Duke, as they had 15 runs that failed to crack 3 yards against Western Illinois. Offensively, Duke has a good one in QB Darian Mensah, and although they had a well documented slow start against Elon, he still finished with 11+ yards per attempt and the Blue Devils piled up 500+ yards in just over 3 quarters. I really like the Harvard transfer Cooper Barkate at WR, and he'll likely get matched up with Illinois CB Kaleb Patterson who did not look good last week and was the only question mark on the Illinois defense. He'll be forced into action out there because his competition for the spot Jahiem Clark will be out with a hamstring issue. I'm hope I'm wrong about this, but Duke is one of the last teams you want to see yourself as a road favorite against.

Glad I missed this one, but as I mentioned elsewhere, I hope the prevailing opinion on Duke is tied up in the final score. Tale of two halves. Duke dominated the line of scrimmage in the first half, but the opposite was pretty much true in the second. People are going to bemoan the Duke turnovers, but other than the muffed punt, Illinois forced those. Also, Luke Alymyer is the most under the radar good QB of a top 10 team you'll ever see.
 
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5. Kansas +7(-117) @Missouri (BR): Kansas has looked pretty good so far this year in my opinion. I never really liked when Leipold brought in an outsider in Jeff Grimes to run the offense last year after Kotelnicki left. It seemed like the trickiness quotient of pre snap shananigans decreased last year and the Kansas offense wasn't the Kansas offense. Throw in the fact that Jalon Daniels was hobbled pretty much all year and you see how their offense didn't quite look the same. Leipold guy Jim Zebrowski is now running the offense so we have a very Leipold looking offense again and Daniels appears to be100% healthy. They also have run the ball very well with Daniel Hishaw and NIU transfer LeShon Williams as well as Daniels, so they rest of the offense falls into place as a result. Missouri has been great the past 2-3 years, but although he tore up Central Arkansas, I'm not sure Beau Pribula is a very good passer. I was skeptical of Kansas's interior on both sides, but they dominated the line of scrimmage in both games, including against a Fresno team whose modus operandi is the pound people on the ground and by stopping the run. They bounced back and bludgeoned a Georgia Southern squad that they were a home dog against, so I think Kansas proved some things in the trenches. I don't think this version of Kansas is likely to get blown out, and it's too early to anoint Pribula as a high caliber signal caller. We should also note that 2nd QB Sam Horn, who Mizzou saw as a viable option to start is out indefinitely so if Pribula isn't the answer, they are stuck. I think this game will be close, so I'll take a TD with the Jayhawks and what I feel is the significantly better QB here.

Tough break at the end on that long TD run to secure the cover for Mizzou, but it's hard to bitch about it when Kansas got outgained 595-226. Look at Missouri's schedule and tell me they're not an SEC contender.
 
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6. @Rutgers -15 v Miami(OH) (BOL): Going back to the well here. Rutgers almost lost last week against Ohio in a similar spread spot as a result of an embarrassing defensive performance. They could not get off the field against Parker Navarro and the Bobcats and they were uncharacteristically lost on defense. I'm sure that was an uncomfortable week of practice because Schiano teams do not usually have so many blown assignments. Offensively, they looked very good on offense for the vast majority of the game, both in the run game and with Kaliakmanis in the pass game. This week I expect major improvement on defense and a super motivated squad looking to make amends, and they'll be playing an offense that has nowhere near the capability of the Ohio team they played last week. Miami's offensive line looked like a major weakness coming in with almost zero career starts and that was proven correct at Wisconsin in week 1. They managed 117 total yards and Daquan Finn was running for his life from jump street. Defensively, they are better than Ohio, but I like Rutgers's offense a lot better than Wisconsin's with the backup QB running the show. I like the Knights to bounce back here, and I'm sure Chuck martin is going to be focusing on getting healthy for MAC play after that putrid offensive performance last week.

Slow and steady wins the race. I was rewarded for trusting Mr. Schiano. Their defense remains a problem however. Miami's OL is putrid and they still got 368 yards.
 
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7. @colorado -23.5 (-115) v Delaware (BOL) : The Buffs put forth a weak performance, even in Deion Sanders's estimation, but they still had a cover in hand if they could have just forced GT into the FG that they were probably more than happy to kick. Alas, Haynes King sauntered into the end zone for a last minute TD and then Deion mismanaged the clock on their last possession to deep six their chances to tie things up with a late TD. I expect major improvement on both sides of the ball here and Julian Lewis, the #2 ranked freshman QB in the country is going to play, which could mean some quick strikes against an opponent like Delaware. The Blue Hens gave up 200 yards rushing to Delaware State last week, so I can't imagine the Buffs not having their way. Defensively, count Colorado as another defense that embarrassed themselves despite a coordinator that knows what he's doing. I expect Robert Livingston to correct what ailed them last week, and I'm sure Deion will be the source of some motivation for his guys to get things back on track. Altitude is something Delaware won't be used to, and they're walking into a tough spot in their first road game as an FBS squad. I'll be surprised if Delaware makes this a game.

Needed a late missed FG for this cover. Need to remember that when I start bitching about various bad beats.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
4. @Duke +3 v Illinois: I have to admit this is a bit of an emotional hedge, but how can you go against Duke in a spot like this? The Blue Devils are 6-1 as a home dog since the start of 2022 and they just find ways to win at home, even if they lose the box score, which has happened many times. The only losses at home during that span where the famous horrific bad beat by 7 to Notre Dame (which I lost when ND sprung a last minute TD when actually trying to set up a FG and then Riley Leonard's leg got turned into a pretzel on the ensuing drive)and the 1 point loss last year to SMU. Everything else they've found a way to win. Also, the last time Manny Diaz faced Luke Altmyer as Penn State's DC, Altmyer had his worst game by a mile at Illinois, throwing 4 picks. Altmyer is much better now, but Diaz's scheme is the kind that can give Illinois trouble, and I'm sure Diaz will be exuding confidence in front of his defense in meetings. The Illinois line is improved, but I don't know that they can just line up and bulldoze Duke, as they had 15 runs that failed to crack 3 yards against Western Illinois. Offensively, Duke has a good one in QB Darian Mensah, and although they had a well documented slow start against Elon, he still finished with 11+ yards per attempt and the Blue Devils piled up 500+ yards in just over 3 quarters. I really like the Harvard transfer Cooper Barkate at WR, and he'll likely get matched up with Illinois CB Kaleb Patterson who did not look good last week and was the only question mark on the Illinois defense. He'll be forced into action out there because his competition for the spot Jahiem Clark will be out with a hamstring issue. I'm hope I'm wrong about this, but Duke is one of the last teams you want to see yourself as a road favorite against.
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Thanks for this write up. I needed it.
 
8. @UTSA -3.5 v Texas State (BOL): Interesting game here as GJ Kinne tees it up against his old high school coach in East Texas in UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor. Last year UTSA went down to San Marcos(only 50 or so miles) and got their doors blown off 49-10. There's a lot of new faces for Texas State as their primary guys on both sides of the ball are gone, but many of the UTSA guys return, including the two most important offensive guys, QB Owen McCown and RB Robert Henry. UTSA played well in their opener at Texas A&M, but fell victim to some big plays against, including an 80 yard punt return by KC Concepcion. Henry was fantastic in the game, breaking off a 75 yard run as well as a 15 yard TD later on the way to 177 yards on only 16 carries. Texas State absolutely ran Eastern Michigan off the field in their opener, piling up 600+ yards and 392(!!) yards rushing. QB Brad Jackson, who backed up Jordan McCloud last year got the start and looked good as well, hitting on a bunch of uncovered slants for big yards. EMU was completely unprepared to handle the Bobcat attack, but I don't think they'll have the same lack of resistance this week. A&M rushed for 110 total yards, but if you take away a scramble by Marcel Reed on a busted play and a 30 yard run by Rueben Owens, they averaged about 2.5 yards a pop on 19 carries. This will also be the first road start for Jackson and I'll be surprised if he's as comfy as he was last week. Although EMU couldn't find their collective ass with both hands and a flashlight on defense, they did pile up 391 yards on offense, and this was an offense that finished 117th in yards per play last year. UTSA is going to get some class relief compared to A&M last week, and they were only outgained by the Aggies 401-373. I think both teams are going to see a stark difference from what they encountered last week and UTSA will definitely be motivated here, both to make amends for last year and to avoid starting the year 0-2.

This Texas State offense looks very good. 7 yards per play in this one. Nice win in a tough spot against a good team. Might be class of the Sun Belt.
 
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9. @Ohio +3.5 v West Virginia: (BOL) It's not much of a margin for error for the Bobcats, but I think they have a great chance to pull off this win. The way the Bobcats looked vs how Charlotte looked, maybe Brian Smith had a big effect on the season Ohio had last year? Rutgers was totally taken by surprise last week by how clean and efficient Ohio was, especially QB Parker Navarro who looked as good as just about anyone last week. I was also surprised that they ran it as well as they did with Sieh Bangura, who transferred out and then back to Ohio and looked much better than he did during his first go-around in Athens. Defensively they are not good, but hopefully they'll have more success against a run heavy attack like the Mountaineers. Rich Rod brings in a whole new team of transfers, and there were mixed reviews about the haul, however, they absolutely clobbered Robert Morris in week 1 and looked the part. Having said that, their line was slotted as among the worst in the Big 12 if not the worst, and QB Nicco Marichol is a known quantity, and he's not exactly known to set the world on fire. Defensively it'll be hard to tell what they look like because everything is new, and that's good because they were 132nd in yards per pass attempt against last year. They come in with a defense that certainly isn't as good as Rutgers, so I think Navarro will have a ton of success throwing it. Since Smith has been on staff, Ohio is a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog. I like their chances here.

Ohio defense had nobody coming back and looked lost at Rutgers last week. Then they held WV to 250 yards. That's either some RAPD and severe improvement in one week or the Mountaineers are a bunch of stiffs. They also won despite a less than stellar effort from Parker Navarro. Bodes well for the Bobcats.
 
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KJ said:
I am so confused by your alma mater. They are highly ranked so it's not like they are some secret. The biggest part of me wants to put life on hold and figure out in this world of gambling...how and why are they getting treated the way they are? And I can't even define that! Likely the result of basically the entire top 12 in ESPN rankings are SEC/Big Ten so I guess they're just upper middles but it's hard to know anything about them.

Iowa/ISU always dog and under, pretty simple. They actually did go over the 36.5 points last year with 39 ffs. Likely will be a game decided by ISU offense v UI defense, the flipside of those two sides have insane amounts of holes.
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I like clones, seems like one their years where that coach has the upperclassmen to be really good. That said as you pointed out this series is very much like the old Steelers vs ravens to me, if ya can get more than a fg you just take it, no need to do much capping which nice since they play so early in season. Def lean under as well, rare ncaa game I love as a dog/under tease!
 
Frank Costanza said:
I hate that you're fading Iowa State, SMU and Illinois. But it's probably smart since I like all three.
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lol. Tough games, just feel like you can’t go wrong taking the points (or under) in the Iowa rivalry.

Illinios/Duke I think both have valid arguments but I just don’t trust Illinois to lay anything at Duke, I’m not super interested in Duke getting less than 3 either.

I’m never correct on Baylor games, pretty much ever! I kinda forgot that while losing on them last week. Normally I’d be totally soured on them and they bounce back in this spot so I really do feel like Baylor the way to go just based off my past experiences with never making money on this team! It was gut wrenching watching aub qb I’m not even sure can throw just run for big chucks of yardage all game on every designed pass, it was baffling to me bears never made any kind of adjustment or used a spy! Everything bout bears offense seemed legit to me against a talented Auburn d tho, and I just can’t fathom the defense playing that awful again.

All 3 these games I think you can make good cases for either side which certainly makes me lean to the points or plus money, maybe it should mean pass but that clearly not a option as these some the more interesting games! 🤣
 
Brass BOL on the week. Nice call on NIU, your analysis was spot on. MD is having trouble getting the running game going which is not a good sign for the rest of the season given the first two opponents. They are going the conservative play calling route with Washington early on to get him some confidence hence a lot of easy underneath throws. My major concern for MD as usual is their line play on both sides of the ball. Won't cut in the BIG against good opponents.
 
Timh said:
Brass BOL on the week. Nice call on NIU, your analysis was spot on. MD is having trouble getting the running game going which is not a good sign for the rest of the season given the first two opponents. They are going the conservative play calling route with Washington early on to get him some confidence hence a lot of easy underneath throws. My major concern for MD as usual is their line play on both sides of the ball. Won't cut in the BIG against good opponents.
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I just need them to get to wins Timmy! So far so good!
 
10. @NC State -2.5 v Virginia (BOL) : A little out of order on this one, but I decided to add it now that it's back under 3. I kind of want to keep an eye on these short road dogs of less than 3 because I've heard they cover more than we think, but I think this might be asking a lot of Virginia here. I know there's some excitement for the Cavs because Chandler Morris came aboard and probably represents an upgrade for them at QB, but I'm skeptical at this number. Tony Elliott's tenure got what might be one last gasp of capital infused in it this year as they added some transfers, but it hasn't worked thus far. They had some value the past couple years as a sizable dog, but he and his staff have pretty much proven themselves to be punching bags for other coaches. He's certainly overmatched by Dave Doeren, though we'll have to see how his replacement for DC Tony Gibson works out. Virginia hammered Coastal while it appeared that the Wolfpack had to sneak by ECU, but the Tim Beck reality is starting to settle in to make Coastal a mess, and NC State had the Pirates under control (24-7 into the 4th) until a couple late scoring drives made it close. Pack QB CJ Bailey looked really good in that game, so I think this is an offense that can put up points in this spot. UVA is going to have to either win this outright or come damn close on the road to cover this. I just think it's unlikely given the pedigree of these staffs.

Gotta give UVA some credit. That offense looked very good on the road. 257 yards rushing, 257 yards passing. They couldn't get a stop when they needed one though as CJ Bailey looked good again. If UVA makes a couple FGs, they win, so I got a little lucky here.
 
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11. @Virginia Tech -2 v Vanderbilt (BR): I like Vandy and it's a lot of fun to back the Diego Pavia/Jerry Kill combo, but all the value is on VT here and it seems like there might be some bettors forcing a play on Vandy here if that's their preferred side. Even though they came up short, I thought the Hokies looked pretty good against South Carolina last week and certainly were the right side getting 8. The scores in the second half for SC were a bomb and an 80 yard punt return and VT outgained them for the game. Now VT comes home after a loss in a bit of a desperate situation if they have any designs on a solid year, and I think they'll have one based on how well coached they looked, especially on D. The Hokies will also be motivated to avenge the OT loss they took last year in Nashville which sent them on a tailspin that ultimately cooked their season. I like betting Vandy but the value they usually have has shrunk to zero due to the perception of the Diego Pavis experience. Asking the Dores to win outright in a very tough environment against a team that will have their full attention....I wouldn't want to have a ticket with that value.

At halftime, this writeup looked pretty prophetic. Then a good staff adjusted and the other staff didn't. The result was the most lopsided second half you might ever see. 34-0. 309-19 yard edge for the 'Dores in the second half. 490-248 for the game. Pry was made a fool of in this one, injury issues or not.
 
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12. Boston College +4(-117) @Michigan State (BR): I actually got this in at 4.5, but as I write this, even 4 is fleeting. Regardless, I'm going with the dog here. Not a ton of analysis here. Ultimately this is the kind of game that the dog of any substance is the better play because these two teams are evenly matched. Last year MSU pulled out the road win in a nailbiter in this matchup, and a lot of times the same thing happens when the teams switch places the next year. I like both head coaches, but Jonathan Smith still has quite a bit to prove in East Lansing. They slogged through their game against Western Michigan last week and looked similar to how they looked last year. The same can be said for Aiden Chiles. Hypothetical Aiden Chiles continues to look great, but actual Aiden Chiles looks good in a uniform but likes to give the ball to the other team and fail to convert third downs. If the hypothetical one shows up, well, BC might be in for some trouble. If he doesn't, I think the Eagle offense looked good enough in their tune up to elicit some confidence that they'll be able to move the ball enough to hang close. MSU and Chiles have to prove they're competent enough to get this done, and in my opinion, I'll believe it when I see it.

ED Note: MSU pulled out the road cover last year, not the win. Thanks BAR for pointing out.

BC got the cover but they should have won. Outgained the Spartans by 100+ and looked like the better team throughout. It happens on the road. Chiles looked pretty good, I'll admit.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
12. Boston College +4(-117) @Michigan State (BR): I actually got this in at 4.5, but as I write this, even 4 is fleeting. Regardless, I'm going with the dog here. Not a ton of analysis here. Ultimately this is the kind of game that the dog of any substance is the better play because these two teams are evenly matched. Last year MSU pulled out the road win in a nailbiter in this matchup, and a lot of times the same thing happens when the teams switch places the next year. I like both head coaches, but Jonathan Smith still has quite a bit to prove in East Lansing. They slogged through their game against Western Michigan last week and looked similar to how they looked last year. The same can be said for Aiden Chiles. Hypothetical Aiden Chiles continues to look great, but actual Aiden Chiles looks good in a uniform but likes to give the ball to the other team and fail to convert third downs. If the hypothetical one shows up, well, BC might be in for some trouble. If he doesn't, I think the Eagle offense looked good enough in their tune up to elicit some confidence that they'll be able to move the ball enough to hang close. MSU and Chiles have to prove they're competent enough to get this done, and in my opinion, I'll believe it when I see it.
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One correction -- bc won the nail biter
 
13. @Mississippi State +6.5 v Arizona State: (BOL): I thought about fading Mississippi State last week on the road at Southern Miss but I held off and I'm obviously glad I did. They looked really good against a Southern Miss team that should be very much improved. Lebby had a lot of work to do in getting their talent level up to snuff and I think he's making progress. QB Blake Shapen has been around and looked very competent and their defense really bottled up a pretty good QB in Braylon Braxton. I've always liked Sam Leavitt, but I'm not sure he is cut out to be the main man in an offense. The Sun Devils relied on Cam Skattebo for everything last year, and it's going to be a major adjustment for them to be effective against good competition without him. I think this environment qualifies for that. They'll force feed it to Jordyn Tyson, and that's a good idea because he's fantastic, but I think Bulldogs are capable of bracketing him and ASU was way more leaky than expected in their tune up with Northern Arizona, both on defense, and on the offensive line where they're missing a couple guys. I think MSU has a good shot to pull off this upset so I'll definitely take +6.5.

Good win for the Bulldogs here. Came out like gangbusters, but then ASU kind of imposed their will on the ground. Big coverage bust at the end for ASU, but good for MSU.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
13. @Mississippi State +6.5 v Arizona State: (BOL): I thought about fading Mississippi State last week on the road at Southern Miss but I held off and I'm obviously glad I did. They looked really good against a Southern Miss team that should be very much improved. Lebby had a lot of work to do in getting their talent level up to snuff and I think he's making progress. QB Blake Shapen has been around and looked very competent and their defense really bottled up a pretty good QB in Braylon Braxton. I've always liked Sam Leavitt, but I'm not sure he is cut out to be the main man in an offense. The Sun Devils relied on Cam Skattebo for everything last year, and it's going to be a major adjustment for them to be effective against good competition without him. I think this environment qualifies for that. They'll force feed it to Jordyn Tyson, and that's a good idea because he's fantastic, but I think Bulldogs are capable of bracketing him and ASU was way more leaky than expected in their tune up with Northern Arizona, both on defense, and on the offensive line where they're missing a couple guys. I think MSU has a good shot to pull off this upset so I'll definitely take +6.5.
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I been trying to talk myself into this, prob join you.
 
Br@ssknux said:
13. @Mississippi State +6.5 v Arizona State: (BOL): I thought about fading Mississippi State last week on the road at Southern Miss but I held off and I'm obviously glad I did. They looked really good against a Southern Miss team that should be very much improved. Lebby had a lot of work to do in getting their talent level up to snuff and I think he's making progress. QB Blake Shapen has been around and looked very competent and their defense really bottled up a pretty good QB in Braylon Braxton. I've always liked Sam Leavitt, but I'm not sure he is cut out to be the main man in an offense. The Sun Devils relied on Cam Skattebo for everything last year, and it's going to be a major adjustment for them to be effective against good competition without him. I think this environment qualifies for that. They'll force feed it to Jordyn Tyson, and that's a good idea because he's fantastic, but I think Bulldogs are capable of bracketing him and ASU was way more leaky than expected in their tune up with Northern Arizona, both on defense, and on the offensive line where they're missing a couple guys. I think MSU has a good shot to pull off this upset so I'll definitely take +6.5.
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Everything tells me you're analysis is right here, but I'm still having a hard time taking a team that won two games last year. 6x with an SEC team at home seems so good though that I'm still trying to talk myself into taking them.

I always enjoy your write-ups each week so keep up the good work
 
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