Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
It was a weak first week for me, finishing 5-7 on posted plays. It could have been worse though, as I avoided forcing a couple other plays that also lost, so at least I can point to something positive. I'd also say that there was only 1 maybe 2 plays that I regret. Most of the losses were for the most part logically conceived, so I'm not going to dwell too much on a subpar start. We work from a 5-8 hole since I lost my only play of week 0. Hopefully this will be a bounce back week.
Weeknight games have been a horror show for me over the past couple of years, so I am going to avoid getting off to terrible starts this year. The only fool proof way to accomplish that is to refuse to play the weeknight games. When I kind of like a game, though, I'll talk about why, but unless it's the no brainer of no brainers, I'm going to refrain from settling my money ablaze.
I'm extremely high on UCF this year. Say what you will about Malzahn, but he's accomplished a lot in his past and he's got a team coming back this year that is both experienced and productive while also fitting his scheme perfectly. Auburn's offenses under Malzahn were very good, and when they were at their best, they just ran it all over people, I can't wait to watch John Rhys Plumlee play quarterback in this offense. He was relegated to WR once Kiffin and Matt Corral came in at Ole Miss because he wasn't a great fit for that offense, but he is an electrifying runner. You probably remember a couple games in Matt Luke's final year where Plumlee exploded for big rushing numbers, most notably in a shootout against LSU in which he piled up 220 rushing yards. In Malzahn's offense, he could possibly be as good a fit as any QB Malzahn has had, and he's got a ton of teammates who have already produced in this offense. I see him as a major upgrade over Dylan Gabriel. On Friday night, UCF gets Louisville and the line has dropped to 5.5. I would lay those points. I realize that Louisville is due for a bounceback, but they re typically a bad road team, and they were completely helpless against a similar style offense last week in Syracuse. Malik Cunningham is certainly better than he showed, but veteran players who have great swan song seasons typically don't start out like that. I can see thing getting worse from here, and if Louisville has a tackling performance even close to what they showed last week, they'll never get off the field defensively. UCF will be jacked up as well, as they get a Power 5 school at home. If this was a Saturday game, this would be an official write up.
4-9-1
Iowa -3.5 LOSS Fumbling at the 1 foot line, not a good idea
North Carolina -7 PUSH
Central Michigan -5 LOSS No more MAC v Sun Belt
Kansas State -7 WIN
Pitt +6 LOSS Too bad about Slovis.
Navy +5 LOSS Ugh.
Appy State +18.5 WIN
Virginia +4 LOSS
UNLV +13 WIN
UAB -6 LOSS 5 TOs to none, not a recipe for success
EMU +11.5 LOSS What happened to my man Chris Creighton in that 4th quarter?
Northern IL +6.5 WIN
Boston College +3 LOSS
Arizona +11.5 LOSS Will Rogers is not to be trifled with
1. @Iowa -3.5 v Iowa State: I usually like to do these in chronological order, but since this line is moving I figured I'd get it in now. I got it at 3 but that number is long gone and I don't think it'll come back. Everybody got a good laugh at Iowa's expense last week when they looked absolutely pathetic on offense in their game against the Jackrabbits, and for good reason. That offense deserves every bit of the scorn it's getting because in today's day and age, it's almost impossible to be that anemic on offense. But here's the point: Is anyone surprised by this? Is it some kind of new revelation that Iowa looks terrible on offense? Spencer Petras has been there for 3 YEARS. He has been incomeptent for about 90% of his starts. We knew this last year and Iowa still found themselves in the Big Ten title game. In the summer we knew this. Despite that, Iowa was a 13-14 point favorite in game of the year lines. This is because Matt Campbell can't beat Iowa and his team lost of ton of contributors from last year. It's also because Iowa's defense will be one of the best in the country, and nobody will be able to score on them. Now this line is down to 3.5. What has changed? We knew Iowa's offense sucked, and they do. Nothing has actually changed, and you can actually make a case that Iowa might be better because they were without their top RB and top 2 receivers and they might have both of the receivers back this week. (I think the RB Gavin Williams is still out). Iowa's special teams are still elite, their defense is still among the best in the country, and they'll probably rack up 3-4 turnovers in crucial times and they'll beat matt Campbell just like they always do. Might we get burned by the 1/2 point? Maybe, but I'll take my chances there.
Weeknight games have been a horror show for me over the past couple of years, so I am going to avoid getting off to terrible starts this year. The only fool proof way to accomplish that is to refuse to play the weeknight games. When I kind of like a game, though, I'll talk about why, but unless it's the no brainer of no brainers, I'm going to refrain from settling my money ablaze.
I'm extremely high on UCF this year. Say what you will about Malzahn, but he's accomplished a lot in his past and he's got a team coming back this year that is both experienced and productive while also fitting his scheme perfectly. Auburn's offenses under Malzahn were very good, and when they were at their best, they just ran it all over people, I can't wait to watch John Rhys Plumlee play quarterback in this offense. He was relegated to WR once Kiffin and Matt Corral came in at Ole Miss because he wasn't a great fit for that offense, but he is an electrifying runner. You probably remember a couple games in Matt Luke's final year where Plumlee exploded for big rushing numbers, most notably in a shootout against LSU in which he piled up 220 rushing yards. In Malzahn's offense, he could possibly be as good a fit as any QB Malzahn has had, and he's got a ton of teammates who have already produced in this offense. I see him as a major upgrade over Dylan Gabriel. On Friday night, UCF gets Louisville and the line has dropped to 5.5. I would lay those points. I realize that Louisville is due for a bounceback, but they re typically a bad road team, and they were completely helpless against a similar style offense last week in Syracuse. Malik Cunningham is certainly better than he showed, but veteran players who have great swan song seasons typically don't start out like that. I can see thing getting worse from here, and if Louisville has a tackling performance even close to what they showed last week, they'll never get off the field defensively. UCF will be jacked up as well, as they get a Power 5 school at home. If this was a Saturday game, this would be an official write up.
4-9-1
Iowa -3.5 LOSS Fumbling at the 1 foot line, not a good idea
North Carolina -7 PUSH
Central Michigan -5 LOSS No more MAC v Sun Belt
Kansas State -7 WIN
Pitt +6 LOSS Too bad about Slovis.
Navy +5 LOSS Ugh.
Appy State +18.5 WIN
Virginia +4 LOSS
UNLV +13 WIN
UAB -6 LOSS 5 TOs to none, not a recipe for success
EMU +11.5 LOSS What happened to my man Chris Creighton in that 4th quarter?
Northern IL +6.5 WIN
Boston College +3 LOSS

Arizona +11.5 LOSS Will Rogers is not to be trifled with
1. @Iowa -3.5 v Iowa State: I usually like to do these in chronological order, but since this line is moving I figured I'd get it in now. I got it at 3 but that number is long gone and I don't think it'll come back. Everybody got a good laugh at Iowa's expense last week when they looked absolutely pathetic on offense in their game against the Jackrabbits, and for good reason. That offense deserves every bit of the scorn it's getting because in today's day and age, it's almost impossible to be that anemic on offense. But here's the point: Is anyone surprised by this? Is it some kind of new revelation that Iowa looks terrible on offense? Spencer Petras has been there for 3 YEARS. He has been incomeptent for about 90% of his starts. We knew this last year and Iowa still found themselves in the Big Ten title game. In the summer we knew this. Despite that, Iowa was a 13-14 point favorite in game of the year lines. This is because Matt Campbell can't beat Iowa and his team lost of ton of contributors from last year. It's also because Iowa's defense will be one of the best in the country, and nobody will be able to score on them. Now this line is down to 3.5. What has changed? We knew Iowa's offense sucked, and they do. Nothing has actually changed, and you can actually make a case that Iowa might be better because they were without their top RB and top 2 receivers and they might have both of the receivers back this week. (I think the RB Gavin Williams is still out). Iowa's special teams are still elite, their defense is still among the best in the country, and they'll probably rack up 3-4 turnovers in crucial times and they'll beat matt Campbell just like they always do. Might we get burned by the 1/2 point? Maybe, but I'll take my chances there.
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