Week 2 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
It was a weak first week for me, finishing 5-7 on posted plays. It could have been worse though, as I avoided forcing a couple other plays that also lost, so at least I can point to something positive. I'd also say that there was only 1 maybe 2 plays that I regret. Most of the losses were for the most part logically conceived, so I'm not going to dwell too much on a subpar start. We work from a 5-8 hole since I lost my only play of week 0. Hopefully this will be a bounce back week.

Weeknight games have been a horror show for me over the past couple of years, so I am going to avoid getting off to terrible starts this year. The only fool proof way to accomplish that is to refuse to play the weeknight games. When I kind of like a game, though, I'll talk about why, but unless it's the no brainer of no brainers, I'm going to refrain from settling my money ablaze.

I'm extremely high on UCF this year. Say what you will about Malzahn, but he's accomplished a lot in his past and he's got a team coming back this year that is both experienced and productive while also fitting his scheme perfectly. Auburn's offenses under Malzahn were very good, and when they were at their best, they just ran it all over people, I can't wait to watch John Rhys Plumlee play quarterback in this offense. He was relegated to WR once Kiffin and Matt Corral came in at Ole Miss because he wasn't a great fit for that offense, but he is an electrifying runner. You probably remember a couple games in Matt Luke's final year where Plumlee exploded for big rushing numbers, most notably in a shootout against LSU in which he piled up 220 rushing yards. In Malzahn's offense, he could possibly be as good a fit as any QB Malzahn has had, and he's got a ton of teammates who have already produced in this offense. I see him as a major upgrade over Dylan Gabriel. On Friday night, UCF gets Louisville and the line has dropped to 5.5. I would lay those points. I realize that Louisville is due for a bounceback, but they re typically a bad road team, and they were completely helpless against a similar style offense last week in Syracuse. Malik Cunningham is certainly better than he showed, but veteran players who have great swan song seasons typically don't start out like that. I can see thing getting worse from here, and if Louisville has a tackling performance even close to what they showed last week, they'll never get off the field defensively. UCF will be jacked up as well, as they get a Power 5 school at home. If this was a Saturday game, this would be an official write up.

4-9-1

Iowa -3.5 LOSS Fumbling at the 1 foot line, not a good idea
North Carolina -7 PUSH
Central Michigan -5 LOSS No more MAC v Sun Belt
Kansas State -7 WIN
Pitt +6 LOSS Too bad about Slovis.
Navy +5 LOSS Ugh.
Appy State +18.5 WIN
Virginia +4 LOSS
UNLV +13 WIN
UAB -6 LOSS 5 TOs to none, not a recipe for success
EMU +11.5 LOSS What happened to my man Chris Creighton in that 4th quarter?
Northern IL +6.5 WIN
Boston College +3 LOSS :(
Arizona +11.5 LOSS Will Rogers is not to be trifled with


1. @Iowa -3.5 v Iowa State: I usually like to do these in chronological order, but since this line is moving I figured I'd get it in now. I got it at 3 but that number is long gone and I don't think it'll come back. Everybody got a good laugh at Iowa's expense last week when they looked absolutely pathetic on offense in their game against the Jackrabbits, and for good reason. That offense deserves every bit of the scorn it's getting because in today's day and age, it's almost impossible to be that anemic on offense. But here's the point: Is anyone surprised by this? Is it some kind of new revelation that Iowa looks terrible on offense? Spencer Petras has been there for 3 YEARS. He has been incomeptent for about 90% of his starts. We knew this last year and Iowa still found themselves in the Big Ten title game. In the summer we knew this. Despite that, Iowa was a 13-14 point favorite in game of the year lines. This is because Matt Campbell can't beat Iowa and his team lost of ton of contributors from last year. It's also because Iowa's defense will be one of the best in the country, and nobody will be able to score on them. Now this line is down to 3.5. What has changed? We knew Iowa's offense sucked, and they do. Nothing has actually changed, and you can actually make a case that Iowa might be better because they were without their top RB and top 2 receivers and they might have both of the receivers back this week. (I think the RB Gavin Williams is still out). Iowa's special teams are still elite, their defense is still among the best in the country, and they'll probably rack up 3-4 turnovers in crucial times and they'll beat matt Campbell just like they always do. Might we get burned by the 1/2 point? Maybe, but I'll take my chances there.
 
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Campbell can't beat Iowa and it sucks. But dogs in this series pay off a ton. Probably regret taking ISU ML but catching 3.5 I'm playing 8 days a week.
 
Plumlee ran all over Alabama when he was freshman. He’s legit fast, not just fast for a QB. Seems like a perfect Malzahn QB. If Gus hadn’t tried to appease the fans or try to show how smart he was by recruiting high rated pro style guys, he’d probably still be the coach at AU
 
Br@ssknux said:
It was a weak first week for me, finishing 5-7 on posted plays. It could have been worse though, as I avoided forcing a couple other plays that also lost, so at least I can point to something positive. I'd also say that there was only 1 maybe 2 plays that I regret. Most of the losses were for the most part logically conceived, so I'm not going to dwell too much on a subpar start. We work from a 5-8 hole since I lost my only play of week 0. Hopefully this will be a bounce back week.

Weeknight games have been a horror show for me over the past couple of years, so I am going to avoid getting off to terrible starts this year. The only fool proof way to accomplish that is to refuse to play the weeknight games. When I kind of like a game, though, I'll talk about why, but unless it's the no brainer of no brainers, I'm going to refrain from settling my money ablaze.

I'm extremely high on UCF this year. Say what you will about Malzahn, but he's accomplished a lot in his past and he's got a team coming back this year that is both experienced and productive while also fitting his scheme perfectly. Auburn's offenses under Malzahn were very good, and when they were at their best, they just ran it all over people, I can't wait to watch John Rhys Plumlee play quarterback in this offense. He was relegated to WR once Kiffin and Matt Corral came in at Ole Miss because he wasn't a great fit for that offense, but he is an electrifying runner. You probably remember a couple games in Matt Luke's final year where Plumlee exploded for big rushing numbers, most notably in a shootout against LSU in which he piled up 220 rushing yards. In Malzahn's offense, he could possibly be as good a fit as any QB Malzahn has had, and he's got a ton of teammates who have already produced in this offense. I see him as a major upgrade over Dylan Gabriel. On Friday night, UCF gets Louisville and the line has dropped to 5.5. I would lay those points. I realize that Louisville is due for a bounceback, but they re typically a bad road team, and they were completely helpless against a similar style offense last week in Syracuse. Malik Cunningham is certainly better than he showed, but veteran players who have great swan song seasons typically don't start out like that. I can see thing getting worse from here, and if Louisville has a tackling performance even close to what they showed last week, they'll never get off the field defensively. UCF will be jacked up as well, as they get a Power 5 school at home. If this was a Saturday game, this would be an official write up.


1. @Iowa -3.5 v Iowa State: I usually like to do these in chronological order, but since this line is moving I figured I'd get it in now. I got it at 3 but that number is long gone and I don't think it'll come back. Everybody got a good laugh at Iowa's expense last week when they looked absolutely pathetic on offense in their game against the Jackrabbits, and for good reason. That offense deserves every bit of the scorn it's getting because in today's day and age, it's almost impossible to be that anemic on offense. But here's the point: Is anyone surprised by this? Is it some kind of new revelation that Iowa looks terrible on offense? Spencer Petras has been there for 3 YEARS. He has been incomeptent for about 90% of his starts. We knew this last year and Iowa still found themselves in the Big Ten title game. In the summer we knew this. Despite that, Iowa was a 13-14 point favorite in game of the year lines. This is because Matt Campbell can't beat Iowa and his team lost of ton of contributors from last year. It's also because Iowa's defense will be one of the best in the country, and nobody will be able to score on them. Now this line is down to 3.5. What has changed? We knew Iowa's offense sucked, and they do. Nothing has actually changed, and you can actually make a case that Iowa might be better because they were without their top RB and top 2 receivers and they might have both of the receivers back this week. (I think the RB Gavin Williams is still out). Iowa's special teams are still elite, their defense is still among the best in the country, and they'll probably rack up 3-4 turnovers in crucial times and they'll beat matt Campbell just like they always do. Might we get burned by the 1/2 point? Maybe, but I'll take my chances there.
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Awesome stuff once again man.
 
Great point on UCF/ Malzahn. Excellent hire by UCF last year. The school and program are a great fit for him, and your specifics for Year 2 drive the point home. He should be highly successful there. The Auburn fans and administration got tired of him, which was very foolish. He beat Saban 3 times in 8 tries, for crying out loud. I'm pretty sure Auburn will soon be looking back on the Malzahn years fondly. A program like UCF is unlikely to get a big head like that; they'll be happy to have him. While they're certainly lower profile than Auburn, they're still an excellent program. We'll see how that factors in, once Malzahn gets it going there. Assuming he does get it going, I'd like to see him stay there a while.- like a rare similarity to Peterson at Boise, Few at Gonzaga, etc.
 
2. North Carolina -7 @Georgia State: I like the Panthers this year, as they bring back a ton of returning starters and production. I also am quite dubious that Mack Brown can pull off covering two tricky games in a row where coaching and preparation will be paramount. He actually proved last week that he's not really capable of preparing his team. They predictably found themselves behind big in the first half and made a plethora of boneheaded mistakes, culminating in the unconscionable TD return of the on-sides kick at the end of the game that kept Appy State alive when the game should have been over and should have cost the Tar Heels the win. The fact that kid did that is proof only that he received no coaching, or he did, and didn't care what his coaches thought. Despite all of that, they won and covered anyway because their talent carried them through. I could sit here and tell you how many mistakes Mack will make this week and how his coaches can't coach a lick of defense, but Drake Maye will still go out there and find open receivers. A lot of people are on Georgia State this week, and I get it...I watched UNC's defense too, and it appears Gene Chizik doesn't make a bit of difference. I also agree that it's likely Georgia State will be able to run all over them much like Appy State sis last week. The difference is that I don't think it's a given that GSU will be able to supplement the run game with a pass game, as their QB Darren Grainger went 7 for 29 last week against South Carolina. How do you outgain your opponent(like they did last week against Rattler and the gamecocks) and still lose by 21? Well, you trot out a horrific special teams unit that gets two punts blocked for TDs, and then you employ a QB who coverts 6 of 20 on 3rd and 4th down and completes only 7 of 29 passes. Last year UNC destroyed GSU 59-17 in a game the Tar Heels were for all intents and purposes were never stopped. They gained 608 yards and averaged 13.1 yards per attempt. Have they figured everything out a year later? Well, UNC's defense is definitely a tomato can, but can GSU sustain drives by running only? You have to be able to throw in college football, especially if you expect to trade scores with a North Carolina offense that will probably be able to move the ball at will through the air on you. I think Carolina gets a little bit of class relief here, at least in the passing game, so chances are Chizik will be able to coax at least a little better performance out of the Tar Heel defense. I'm guessing this is an unpopular side among sharp bettors, but I just don't trust the GSU passing game to be competent enough to keep up in this one.
 
3. @Central Michigan -5 v South Alabama: This is more of a feel play between two teams that are coming off polar opposite ballgames from last week. CMU ran into a buzzsaw in the Oklahoma State offense, but kept their cool and made it respectable by piling up oodles of yards and TDs in garbage time. USA on the other hand, barely broke a sweat in trouncing Nicholls, who remains one of the weaker teams that shows up on schedules in the south. CMU needs a win, and USA is feeling pretty satisfied with themselves after getting the easy win in week 1. Both teams will see a class adjustment...CMU will get a major breather in speed by not having to deal with Spencer Sanders and Co, and it's a long way down to Carter Bradley, the starting QB at South Alabama. He used to be at Toledo, and sports a 5-8 lifetime record with the Rockets as a starter. If that seems bad, it is, because until Bradley took the reins, Toledo was a 8-9 win team every year in the MAC. He's gotten better since his younger days, but I doubt CMU will be taken aback by his prowess. Offensively, CMU has been a juggernaut since about midseason of last year, as RB Lew Nicholls had 1800 rushing yards last year and QB Daniel Richardson doubles as a bowling ball-type runner who can also sling it. Their offense averaged almost 500 yards per game down the stretch last year and piled up 546 last week. I have what shapes up to be the more motivated home squad with an explosive offense going up against a team that might be a bit satisfied who brings in a QB who's accustomed to losing. I'm gonna trust McIlwain here in a game he really needs.
 
4. @Kansas State -7 v Missouri: 4 games, 4 favorites. Not the way I usually like to see it, but here's another one that has a lot lining up in the right direction in my opinion. (This is a noon game by the way, so I'm a little out of order again).First of all, Missouri has been terrible on the road, and as a dog in particular. They're 2-7 as a road dog in their last nine, and Drinkwitz has failed to cover all of his non conference road games thus far, and all of his road games period save for Vandy last year and Alabama as a 29 point dog in the opener in '20. Last year they were one of the worst tackling teams in the country, and that's not going to bode well for them when they try to tackle Duece Vaughn and Adrian Martinez. Martinez showed nothing last week against whatever FCS weakling the Wildcats played, but that appears to have been by design. I expect the full complement to be made available by Kleiman here as the Wildcats would love to show out against an SEC foe and former conference rival. MIzzou had a nice performance against La Tech last week, but they gave up 300+ yards passing and they were very successful in the running game, which will be much harder to do with a very accomplished DL led by All American candidate Felix Uzomah. Huge edge in special teams as well for K State, who seems to make a habit out of return TDs. This is exactly the kind of game Missouri struggles with and I think K State will be able to pull away from the Tigers in this one.
 
5. @Pittsburgh +6(-117) v Tennessee: This one pisses me off because I got it at 7 when it hit there earlier in the week, and it hadn't moved all week only to shoot down right before I write it up. If you even want 6 you have to give up -117, but I like the game, and I'd play it at 6, so here we go. This line was surprising to me, but it really shouldn't have been, because I know how much the gambling community values Tennessee, and there was bound to be some overreaction to Pitt's effort in the Backyard Brawl. Their defense looked quite a bit less dominant then we all expected and they were also fortunate that WV receivers dropped a couple potential game breaking catches. I've seen a few cases for Tennessee here and a lot of it stems from a revenge angle from that barnburner in Knoxville that the Panthers pulled out and also that Tennessee had a cupcake in week 1 which allowed them to prepare for Pitt while Pitt didn't have that same luxury. (Not to mention, the Tennessee offense looks fantastic). While Tennessee will be fired up to get back at Pitt, I think that motivational angle vanishes when you consider that Pitt will be well aware that they are dogged pretty significantly at home to a team they beat last year while on the way to an ACC title. As for the prep angle, Pitt has played Hooker several times previously, and they played Tennessee last year, so hey know what they're dealing with. Tennessee's problem last year was that they couldn't stop Pitt's passing attack. Although Narduzzi has said that he'll be stubborn in his efforts to run the ball, he certainly won't be so stubborn to abandon a passing game that will likely continue to cause problems for Tennessee, as new QB Kedon Slovis torched WV to the tune of 16/24 for 308 yards, a slick 12.8 yards per attempt. Slovis certainly can carve up this Tennessee secondary, and Pitt absolutely has the defensive talent to bounce back with a good performance on that side of the ball. The Panthers are a proud outfit. Narduzzi has a nice motivational tool to use with his team as a home underdog here.
 
6. @Navy +5 v Memphis: Don't look now, but here's another one that dropped a point and a half today, and it's still falling. I can't really point to any concrete numbers on Navy's behalf, but we have seen them look terrible in the past, as they did last week against Delaware only to bounce back with a mature, workmanlike performance the following week. I should also point out that although they dropped a game last week to the Blue Hens of Delaware, they thoroughly out gained them Their defense was fine against what has been a topnotch FCS school, their offense needs to get on track. Memphis has been dreadful on the road, 6-16 ATS since 2018. They even found a way to lose to Temple at Temple last year as the Owls were swooning. The Tigers opened with Mississippi State last week and it couldn't have been much worse. The Bulldogs scored at will and were successful in scoring a TD on virtually every first half drive. The Tigers were not competitive at all in that game until it was way out of reach. I think that paints the Tigers in a bad light and sets them up for yet another poor performance on the road.
 
Br@ssknux said:
5. @Pittsburgh +6(-117) v Tennessee: This one pisses me off because I got it at 7 when it hit there earlier in the week, and it hadn't moved all week only to shoot down right before I write it up. If you even want 6 you have to give up -117, but I like the game, and I'd play it at 6, so here we go. This line was surprising to me, but it really shouldn't have been, because I know how much the gambling community values Tennessee, and there was bound to be some overreaction to Pitt's effort in the Backyard Brawl. Their defense looked quite a bit less dominant then we all expected and they were also fortunate that WV receivers dropped a couple potential game breaking catches. I've seen a few cases for Tennessee here and a lot of it stems from a revenge angle from that barnburner in Knoxville that the Panthers pulled out and also that Tennessee had a cupcake in week 1 which allowed them to prepare for Pitt while Pitt didn't have that same luxury. (Not to mention, the Tennessee offense looks fantastic). While Tennessee will be fired up to get back at Pitt, I think that motivational angle vanishes when you consider that Pitt will be well aware that they are dogged pretty significantly at home to a team they beat last year while on the way to an ACC title. As for the prep angle, Pitt has played Hooker several times previously, and they played Tennessee last year, so hey know what they're dealing with. Tennessee's problem last year was that they couldn't stop Pitt's passing attack. Although Narduzzi has said that he'll be stubborn in his efforts to run the ball, he certainly won't be so stubborn to abandon a passing game that will likely continue to cause problems for Tennessee, as new QB Kedon Slovis torched WV to the tune of 16/24 for 308 yards, a slick 12.8 yards per attempt. Slovis certainly can carve up this Tennessee secondary, and Pitt absolutely has the defensive talent to bounce back with a good performance on that side of the ball. The Panthers are a proud outfit. Narduzzi has a nice motivational tool to use with his team as a home underdog here.
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Yep...
 
7. Appalaichan State +18.5 @ Texas A&M: When pondering this game, the first thing that jumps out at you is what the mindset of the Mountaineers will be after the heartbreaking loss they endured last week to North Carolina. It seems like a terrible spot for them, going into A&M after the disappointment of missing out on a big win. However, we have to remember that Appy State was a favorite over North Carolina. This is not a downtrodden program who missed their big chance. They've already done that, having won at UNC and South Carolina in the same season just a couple years ago. It's certainly a tough spot, but it's really the only negative I can find when looking at this game. Of course A&M will have better athletes, a great defense, etc, but that's always the case when teams like this match up. Ultimately, it's in the pedigree for Appy State to compete in games like this. As I mentioned, in recent years (2019)Appy State has beaten both North Carolina and South Carolina. Last year they traveled to Miami and lost by 2. In 2018 they went to Penn State as a 23 point dog and lost by 7. They are 5-1 in their last 6 as a road dog. It's in their DNA to compete in these games, and we can't forget that one week ago, they were favored at home against North Carolina. Would UNC be an 18.5 point dog to A&M here? Now, looking at that UNC game from last week, the defense's performance was very poor. Drake Maye carved them up and they gave up 6 yards per carry as well. I'm not sure that A&M will be much of a juggernaut for them this week, however. RB Devon Achane, who IMO was a stud last year, went for only 42 yards on 18 carries against Sam Houston State. Hayes King had a nice game, but thus far in his career, he hasn't really proven much. Also, A&M has their own situational issue this week as they have Miami on the horizon next week and will probably want to get out of this game unscathed and without much on film if at all possible. Ultimately, I'm making the decision to not let a potential bad spot take me off backing a team that has cemented their program's reputation on competing in games like this. Appy State is a solid squad and I think they'll hang in with the Aggies here.
 
8. Virginia +4 @Illinois: There have been a lot of changes between these two programs over the past year, but it's hard to forget what Virginia's offense did to the Illini in Charlottesvile last year. Brennan Armstrong just torched the Illinois pass defense, and The Illinois offense, although they moved the ball pretty well, ended up scoring only 14 points against what turned out to be a putrid UVa stop unit. After that game, Illinois DC Ryan Walters made some personnel and scheme changes and the Illini defense turned into one of the better of the Big Ten, and UVa has had a total overhaul in their coaching staff and definitely offensive line, but I'm not sure all that much will be different. Brennan Armstrong is still there. Billy Kemp is still there. Same with Dontayvion Wicks and Keyaton Thompson. The Illinois defensive line should be able to handle Virginia's OL, but they did that last week too and only recorded 1 sack. Brennan Armstrong is more than capable of avoiding rushes and will probably lead the Cavs in rushing like he did last year. The Illini pass defense, though solid with 3 potential pros back there, still got blistered by Connor Bazelak and an Indiana passing game that nobody thought would be dangerous. Ultimately, I don't see any scenario where the Illini hold Armstrong under 27-30 points. That means the Illini will have to score well over 30 to cover this, and although their offense is much improved and can move the ball, they haven't proven they can light up the scoreboard against high level competition. The ran all over Indiana last week and scored 20 points. In their big wins last year, they beat Minnesota and Penn State on the road, but scored 13 and 14 points in regulation in those games. Thus far they've found ways to shoot themselves in the foot in games like this, and until they show they can cash in and score TDs, they'll have a hard time beating teams with passing attacks like Virginia.
 
9. UNLV +13 @ Cal: It's only one game, and I know it was against Idaho State, but UNLV looked pretty good last week! In all seriousness, this is a role that the Rebels have done pretty well in in recent years, and they face a Cal team that has been a terrible favorite (5-10 since Wilcox got there), and one that typically struggles on offense. Purdue transfer Jack Plummer looked ok at QB for the Bears last week, but I'm not sure he has the skill guys to have an explosive enough offense to cover big numbers like this. The Bears are also going to have to figure out what to do with Ricky White, the Michigan State transfer WR who I remember from the COVID season torching Michigan for a million yards in that crazy upset that BAR undoubtedly wants to forget. He was predictably uncoverable in their first game, and I think he gives them a talent upgrade that they need to compete in games like this. QB Doug Brumfield came out of nowhere and some great chemistry with White as well as Kyle Williams, who had a decent year for the Rebels last year. This is mostly a fade of Cal in their least comfortable role, but I think there's some positives about the Rebs here as well. This should be a close one.
 
I've been fairly amazed at the App State line all week. So high. I had concerns about new receivers for Brice, but that wasn't a problem vs UNC. Could be a bigger problem this week, but atleast the all new unit produced and Brice spread the ball around well.
 
10 UAB -6(-115) @ Liberty: As everyone knows, backing UAB ATS throughout the Bill Clark era has been a profitable exercise. Unfortunately, Clark had to step down this year due to some medical issues, but he's still around and the residue of his influence will likely stick around for awhile under protege Bryant Vincent and a staff that's been intact since Clark re-launched the program. Liberty has also been a great bet under Hugh Freeze, but I think the worm may be turning for the Flames. First of all, they no longer have Malik Willis, and his replacement, nomadic Charlie Brewer is also now gone after a cup of coffee as he got injured in the opener against Southern Miss. In that opener, The Flames eeked out a 4OT victory, but were extremely fortunate in doing so. USM QB Ty Keyes got hurt(again) and the Golden Eagles were forced to use Frank Gore Jr as a wildcat QB for the majority of the game, like they had to do last year. This move made them completely predictable, but Gore still managed 178 rushing yards and even completed a 45 yard TD pass on his only completion. USM also had 5 turnovers but still were able to get to OT, because the collection of QBs Liberty threw out there had 3 turnovers and couldn't separate themselves. Now UAB comes in, one of the most buttoned up programs in the country. They run the ball well, they play defense and QB Dustin Hopkins is back for his 4th season in he program. They return 8 starters on defense, and should be able to bother the Flames inexperienced QBs into mistakes. Willis and the Flames gave the Blazers a rare beat down last year, so there will be motivation for UAB, and this Flames team doesn't look to be anywhere near as good as last years edition. UAB usually takes care of business as a favorite(22-12 since 2018), and I think they'll handle things here.
 
11. Eastern Michigan +11.5 @La-La: This is more of a feel play since both teams played FCS squads last week and both of them looked quite questionable. La La is embarking on life after Billy Napier with Michael Desormeaux, whose name looks the part for Lafayette Louisiana, but we don't know what his program will look like. Both teams are breaking in new QBs, but Taylor Powell at EMU played quite a bit for Troy last year(not necessarily well) but at least he's got experience. EMU should have one of the better O Lines in the MAC this year and they have some playmakers at WR, especially Hassan Badoun who piled up over 1000 yards last year. Chris Creighton has been very adept as a road dog over the years and his programs have beaten several Big Ten squads and competed very well over the years. With so much uncertainty with the Rajun Cajuns, I think it makes sense to take double digits with a coach/program that has had a lot of success in this role.
 
12. Northern Illinois +6.5 @Tulsa: First let me tell you that I fully expect Northern Illinois to get outgained. They almost always do and then win anyway. Tulsa appears to be the perfect candidate to be NIU's next bad luck victim as they found a way to lose to Wyoming, giving up 40 points in the process. Anyone who watched Wyoming play the previous week at Illinois is still wondering how a 40 point outburst could be possible in the next 2-3 years yet alone the following week. Andrew Peasley followed up a 6-21 for 30 yards performance with a 20-30 256 yard performance against this Tulsa defense. Huskie QB Rocky Lombardi is no great shakes, but he can do whatever Andrew Peasley does, I can promise you that. NIU is a solid road dog, 11-6 over the past 5 years, and they find ways to win...they win turnover battles, they score on special teams and they are comfortable in this role. It's a bit too early to tell, but with longtime DC Joe Gillespie gone, it appears Tulsa is struggling with their schemes on defense and might have the profile of a hard luck squad. I'll take my chances with the Huskies here.
 
13. Boston College +3(-115) @Virginia Tech: Both of these teams had terrible opening weeks, but if you've been paying attention, Greg Schiano has been able to unleash some sort of voodoo magic on teams when he's a road dog here in his second stint at Rutgers, so I give the eagles a little bit of a pass. I think the incompetence might be a little more permanent, at least for now with VT. Transfer QB Grant Wells's turnover problems at Marshall were well documented, and he continued things with not 2, not 3 but 4 INTs against Old Dominion. They outgained the Monarchs easily, but turnovers and special teams incompetence did them in. If you size this one up as a tossup between these two teams, I still trust Phil Jurkovec a heck of a lot more than I trust Wells, and I BC came into the season with more returning production than the Hokies did. Add in the penchant to give games way, and I'll take the points with the better QB.
 
14. @Arizona +11.5 v MIssissippi State: Like most SEC teams, MIssissippi State hasn't left their own time zone for a road game in 100 years. It's definitely something different, as Big Ten teams have knows for decades every time they venture west for a game out there. Many Big Ten teams have been embarrassed when they would go out to California or Arizona, or Washington, etc, even when favored. As an aside, let me me say that I plan to be on Leach's guys several times this year and I think they have a chance to have a great year. Let me also say that overreacting to what you saw in week 1, i.e. Arizona's performance against San Diego State is very dangerous. However, this is much more than just a team that showed incremental improvement. There are 50 new players on Arizona's team, and I would venture to say that I think they might have the best set of receivers in the Pac 12, along with a competent QB to get them the ball. They are essentially a different team than last year, and I think it's impossible to make that adjustment yet if you are a sportsbook. Arizona didn't just hang with what people assumed would be a good SDSU team last week, they beat them. They didn't just beat them, they dominated them to the tune of a 461-232 edge. If you gave me the choice of any receiver in the country, I just might take Jacob Cowing. He single handedly gave UTEP the offense it needed to turn their program around, and in his first game, he caught 3 TD passes against a SDSU defense that many expected to be at the top of the Mountain West as usual. Arizona absolutely has their work cut out for them trying to stop this MSU attack, but the Bulldogs are going to be out of their element, playing a late night game two time zones over, and they'll have to do a lot more than roll their helmets out there to win this one. This might be the last chance to take advantage of Arizona's improvement. Their skill positions are very good, and the way their lines played against a physical Aztec team, you can make a case that the entire team has staying power. Should be a fun one to watch, but I'm taking those points.
 
Br@ssknux said:
7. Appalaichan State +18.5 @ Texas A&M: When pondering this game, the first thing that jumps out at you is what the mindset of the Mountaineers will be after the heartbreaking loss they endured last week to North Carolina. It seems like a terrible spot for them, going into A&M after the disappointment of missing out on a big win. However, we have to remember that Appy State was a favorite over North Carolina. This is not a downtrodden program who missed their big chance. They've already done that, having won at UNC and South Carolina in the same season just a couple years ago. It's certainly a tough spot, but it's really the only negative I can find when looking at this game. Of course A&M will have better athletes, a great defense, etc, but that's always the case when teams like this match up. Ultimately, it's in the pedigree for Appy State to compete in games like this. As I mentioned, in recent years (2019)Appy State has beaten both North Carolina and South Carolina. Last year they traveled to Miami and lost by 2. In 2018 they went to Penn State as a 23 point dog and lost by 7. They are 5-1 in their last 6 as a road dog. It's in their DNA to compete in these games, and we can't forget that one week ago, they were favored at home against North Carolina. Would UNC be an 18.5 point dog to A&M here? Now, looking at that UNC game from last week, the defense's performance was very poor. Drake Maye carved them up and they gave up 6 yards per carry as well. I'm not sure that A&M will be much of a juggernaut for them this week, however. RB Devon Achane, who IMO was a stud last year, went for only 42 yards on 18 carries against Sam Houston State. Hayes King had a nice game, but thus far in his career, he hasn't really proven much. Also, A&M has their own situational issue this week as they have Miami on the horizon next week and will probably want to get out of this game unscathed and without much on film if at all possible. Ultimately, I'm making the decision to not let a potential bad spot take me off backing a team that has cemented their program's reputation on competing in games like this. Appy State is a solid squad and I think they'll hang in with the Aggies here.
Click to expand...
Great hit my man!
 
Had a terrible week, 4-9-1. I didn't mention it in the write ups but I was thinking it, and I have a new rule, similar to my no weeknight games rule: Don' bet on a MAC tean vs a Sun Belt team.

I also need to my list of blacklisted teams that I will no longer fade

Louisville
La La

Louisville will be on the avoid at all costs list.

Really bad week. Had some tough breaks, but overall, it was a bad, bad week. Moving on to next week.
 
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