Week 2 Write-Ups and hopefully feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Off to a 5-5 start last week, although I'm counting my BYU bet as a loss. Its fair enough, since it's the number I saw when I was writing the entry, but that line was definitely 1 or most of the day Saturday.


1. Boston College -16.5 @UMass: First of all, a recurring theme for me is that I like to fade teams with shitty offenses when they are laying significant amounts of points. Last year, BC had what could be characterized as an historically shitty offense, even going a stretch of two games in which they gave up a grand total of 12 points in those two weeks yet still managed to go 0-2. This year however, I think their offense is better. They had no semblance of a passing game last year, but this year they have Kentucky transfer Patrick Towles in the role. Towles is no world beater, but he had some good moments at Kentucky, but he left...probably a mistake on his part. Their running game looks good as Jon Hillman looked dominant at times running it on GaTech. Offensively UMass is going to struggle all year with their QB Frohnhapel now gone and very little returning in the skill positions. I think BC will throw some points on the board in this one for sure, and it's pretty highly probably that UMass will have no chance to move the ball on a defense as stout of BC. I can see a 33-7 game easily. Also, it's always a bad sign for the home underdog to have public support. That's the case in this one.


 
I love reading your threads. I'd comment, but I know nothing...just like Sgt Schultz
 
BC!!!!!! I was thinking to take the TT over as well. I feel like the team has offense anxiety. The coach really makes me mad sometimes with playing it safe but I don't think that'll be a problem today. GL
 
I hope you are right, mr knucks. B C has not yet demonstrated any ability to put points on the board, their FG kicker is atrocious, and Towles is still an unknown to me. Assuming Mass can get 1 TD like they did against Florida, BC needs 4 scores and 3 need to be touchdowns with (cross your fingers) no missed XPTs. Having said that, I did bet BC. GL
 
Guys I was in Vegas this past week for work and got home late...fell asleep at the keyboard...you all probably have been there. Gonna try and rapid fire these.

Bull...I think BC is a lot better on offense, and UMass looked like a candidate for #128 in FBS to me coming into the season. BC on the road but not really, and I liked the way they looked last week. We'll see how they stack up all year offensively, but UMass has little chance of cracking DD if the defense plays even it's C game IMO.

2. Wyoming +25 @Nebraska: Although I was against Wyoming last week, that was mostly due to some trends that I couldn't ignore. NIU actually looked pretty good on offense throwing the ball against them, but they were able to win outright as a double digit favorite anyway. One thing that did impress me though was Wyoming's defensive performance in the run game. NIU has always relied on it's run game, both with effective RBs and mobile QBs, but Wyoming held them completely in check last week. The NIU RBs combined for 19/58 and QB Drew Hare couldn't muster any positive yards on the ground. The modus operandi for Nebraska is very similar, so if Wyoming can turn in a similar performance this week(a large task, I know) they will be in great shape. I've always liked their HC Craig Bohl from his time at North Dakota State and he is a previous DC at Nebraska, so there will be some added juice in this one for his kids. Nebraska has Oregon on deck, so I'm guessing Wyoming won't be seeing their full arsenal on display, so I think getting more than 24 is a good value here.
 
3. Rice +8.5 @ Army: Given Army's performance in any scenario in which they are favored or having previously enjoyed some fleeting moments of prosperity, this is an auto play for me. It really doesn't matter what time period you use or what specific situation you use, Army can't cover as a favorite, and they are 4-14 ATS coming off a win in recent years, and most of the losses have been outright. They looked fantastic last week in a pretty dominant win over Temple, but that was a situation in which they were in their element. That's certainly not the case this week, and although Rice looked atrocious last week at Western Kentucky, the match-up is much better for them this week. Rice was last year and appears to be this year one of the worst pass defenses in creation. Against the run, they aren't bad, and they won't have to worry about covering anyone this week. Rice also should be able to put some points on the board. I've always been a fan of their coach David Bailiff, so I expect a nice bounce back performance from them this week. If the Cadets blow their doors off and build off their nice opener, I'll take my hat off them and we might be looking at a nice season from them(which I'd love to see), but I think the chances are better that they come down to earth a bit this week. If you play money lines, this is probably as good a play as you will see given Army's history.
 
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I like your 2nd and third plays, but I'd be concerned with the BC play. Travel to Dublin Ireland and lose a gut wrencher and come back the next week and play their little brother school in state. Have to think umass is way more fired up for this contest than BC. Very scary to lay points with a Stone Age offense, and head coach. If bc gets up they will sit on it, won't be trying to cover the number.
 
sirwinzalot said:
I like your 2nd and third plays, but I'd be concerned with the BC play. Travel to Dublin Ireland and lose a gut wrencher and come back the next week and play their little brother school in state. Have to think umass is way more fired up for this contest than BC. Very scary to lay points with a Stone Age offense, and head coach. If bc gets up they will sit on it, won't be trying to cover the number.
Click to expand...

Legit concerns, no doubt. I just don't think UMass has much of a chance to score on them, and although the points weren't there last week, I thought the BC offense looked light years better than they did last year.
 
4. Ohio +2.5 @ Kansas: I realize Kansas won last week and looked good and that Ohio lost to what many people thought would be the worst team in FBS in Texas State, but we really shouldn't overreact to one week's results. Ohio is considered to be one of the better teams in the MAC, and Frank Solich has been around the block a few times so I'm sure we will get a bounceback effort from the Bobcats in this one. Kansas is a lot like Army. 3-9 in their last 12 off a win (and you have to go all the way back to 2010 to get that much data on Kansas wins). My guess is that if Ohio had taken care of business in week 1 they would be a TD favorite or so, so I'm not going to let a couple of likely fluky performances keep me from taking points against one of the worst teams(both SU and ATS) in FBS in recent years.
 
5. Tulsa +28 @Ohio State: Not a good situation for the Buckeyes here. It's kind of the mother of all sandwich games as they couldn't have possibly looked better last week against a BG team with major attrition, and they have to travel to Norman next week to play Oklahoma. I've liked Tulsa, and especially their offense since the start of last year. They are likely to be one of the better offenses in the country in their second year under Phil Montgomery, and they have lots of useful skill guys, especially at receiver with Keevan Lucas and Josh Atkinson. I don't think it's likely that OSU will turn in another sterling performance like they did last week, and they'll be unlikely to throw any new wrinkles in there with the Sooners on deck. Even if we see the same Buckeyes as we did last week, there will be lots of back door possibilities once the starters are finished and resting up for Oklahoma.
 
6. Nevada +28 @ Notre Dame: It's true that the Irish looked really good offensively against Texas last week, and I think they'll be pretty well served in their decision to go with Kizer at QB, but this is another tough spot. Short week off a grueling game against an opponent who is lightly regarded with a tough opponent on deck (Michigan State). The problem is, although Nevada is lightly regarded, they certainly aren't bad, especially on offense. They return their leading rusher, both of their top receivers, all 5 OL and the started at QB. They should be very competent on offense, and we all saw what ND looked on defense against an offense that though improved, was only a few months removed from being incapable of getting on the scoreboard against Iowa State. 28 points is a lot here, even considering the time change for Wolf Pack.
 
7. Kentucky +16 @ Florida: I am not really getting the best line that was available in this game, but I think the value is there with Kentucky. Last week the wheels completely fell off for the Wildcats as they led Southern Miss 35-10 just before halftime, only to see the Golden Eagles fire off 34 straight to send the Cat faithful home in disbelief. There's actually not a lot to feel guilty about overall with a loss to USM, they're a good team. I take some solace for Kentucky in the fact that their offense looked good, with QB Barker totaling over 300 yards on only 16 completions. They have some good skill people, so I think they'll be competent on offense. The thing they have going for them this week is they get to line up against a Florida offense that was completely lost last week. UMass, whose defense is not good, I promise you, held Florida to only 4.97 yards per play and 363 total yards. Until the gators figure things out on offense, it is going to be very tough for them to cover 2 TD spreads against competent teams. Kentucky played like shit in Gainesville last year yet still had a chance to win, so I think they will come in with confidence, and this will be a sleepy afternoon game for the Gator faithful. I'd be surprised if Kentucky breaks their horrific losing streak against Florida in this one, but they should be in the game.
 
8. UTSA +9 @Colorado State: I would usually expect a bounceback effort from a team like CSU after they looked so pathetic in their opener, but I watched that game, and I forcefully reject that notion. They looked as bad on both sides of the ball as a team can possibly look. I still hold some hope for the guy who started at QB last week, Nick Stevens, since he had some decent stats last year, but he's been benched for Georgia transfer Faton Bauta, who has a scattershot noodle for an arm. Defensively, they gave up whatever Colorado decided to take until the Buffs called off the dogs in what was supposed to be a rivalry game. I find myself struggling to find the right words to describe just how bad they looked. Feeble. Miserable. Feckless. Heartless. Unresponsive. Corpse-like. Effeminate. Castrated. I could go on. Just suffice it to say that whatever vision you have in your head of what a bad football team looks like, CSU was significantly worse than that last week. As for UTSA, they are positioned to be a lot better than last year, when they were one of the least experienced teams in the country. This year most of heir guys return and they add in a couple graduate transfers who contributed to power 5 teams last year. They also gave CSU all they could handle last September and both teams appear to be headed in different directions now. The CSU who played last week shouldn't be favored against anyone, let alone almost DD.
 
Will be on BC, Rice and UK.

The conditions for BC O last week weren't ideal, not the fact they were in Ireland, but the weather made it rough to see what Towles and the passing game could really do. I remain optimistic. I think it is pretty reasonable to expect the Towles led O to be able to move the ball and score unlike last year's team. In 2014 they beat UMass by 23 and I would say that version of UMass was better than this one. Jury out on if this version of BC is better than '14...but the O not only with Towles this year, but also a healthy Hillman...I'd be surprised if they can't score 27+ pts.
 
CC, Egg, s--k, Fondy, thanks guys!


9. South Carolina +7.5 @ Mississippi St: Tough back to back roadies in conference for the Cocks, but in this game, I think any points more than a score are valuable. I liked the way SCAR looked in the second half against a very good Vandy defense, and I think they have the athletes on defense and with Muschamp in the fold to keep the Bulldog offense within shouting distance. MSU looked a bit lost without Prescott...this just has all the makings of a close game in my opinion. If I'm a Bulldog fan, I'm just hoping for a win. On a neutral site I'd cap this as a pick em game, so I'll take more than a TD.


 
10. MTSU +4 @ Vandy: I think this might have dropped to 3.5, but I would still take it at anything more than a FG. Vandy of course is a good D zero O outfit, like they have always been under Derek Mason. MTSU will certainly have enough on the defensive side to force Vandy into their usual horrific offensive performance, but I think their offense is good enough to squeak a victory out in this one. The two schools are very close to each other so it will be hotly contested. It should be a low enough scoring game that anything more than a FG is likely to be the difference, and I think the Blue Raiders have a better than 50% shot at the outright. They were actually a 2.5 home favorite to Vandy last year and lost at the gun, I think they return the favor this year.
 
11 Virginia Tech +11.5 v Tennessee: UT is somewhat of a Jeckyl and Hyde type team, so it wouldn't complete surprise me if they came out with a great performance, but the struggles they had with Appy State were not fluky, they were of a physical nature. Appy State was having their way with the Vols until the decided that they were not interested in attacking anymore and satisfied with just competing in the game. UT is better than VT on paper, but I like a lot of the offensive pieces VT has coming back, especially the WR corps, and I am a believer in Justin Fuente, who will represent a monumental upgrade over Frank Beamer. Defensively they should be same as they ever were because Bud Foster is still there. Huge interest in this one as it's right between the two schools in Bristol. I'd expect this to be a competitive game, especially given UT's past performance when they have expectations to meet.
 
12. Texas Tech +2 @ Arizona State: Arizona State has struggled mightily with quick passing attacks like this TT offense, especially late last year when West Virginia, Washington State and Cal all torched them through the air for nearly 600 yards apiece. I think Pat Mahomes is one of the best QBs coming back in the country this year and he has a lot of his weapons coming back. ASU should be able to run the ball, but they are shaky at QB, and they'll need to put up a healthy amount of points to come out on top in this one. Tech went into Arkansas and got a win last year in the non-conference, I think they do it again this year.
 
13. @San Diego State -7 v Cal: I'm not a believer in Davis Webb in this Cal offense yet, as he's never really been adept at going downfield. Hawaii was pretty lost in that game in Australia on defense so he got away with it, but this is a major upgrade in defensive talent he'll be facing this week. Also remember that Hawaii ran for 248 yards and 6.5 per carry against them and they'll be facing one of the nation's best RBs in Donnell Pumphrey. The Aztecs are still smarting from the beatdown Cal gave them last year, but there's no Jared Goff to worry about this time. Seldom does SDSU get power 5 schools in their stadium, so they'll be ready. I think they win comfortably, contrary to the public.
 
Have a few that I almost pulled the trigger on but held off. Might add a couple more but that's it for now.
 
I think you may have put me over on the top on Tulsa, that was one I was looking at this week. Also agree on MTSU and VT in particular. BOL on the week, always enjoy your threads Brass.
 
Towles has looked horrible. Hopefully he just keeps throwing deep...the only 2 passes all day that have looked good. Surprised BC can;t run on Umass.
 
14. Wake Forest +7(bought) @ Duke: The more I look at this one, the more I think it's going to be a low scoring affair. Wake has a tough scrappy defense, and Duke will be without starting QB Sirk. Wake looked terrible on offense last week, only garnering one TD against tulane, but they have a 3rd year starter at QB in John Wolford...I'm guessing they'll have a better showing today. When totals are as low as this one (44 last I checked) road dogs are a great play, especially when they are getting a TD. Should be a tight game. Hopefully the Clawfense has turned a corner.
 
15. Arkansas +10 @ TCU: Now that this line has risen all the way to 10, I have to jump on it, especially given Arkansas recent record as a dog (covered 6 out of their last 7 as a road dog). Although the Hogs narrowly escaped a loss to LT last week, I think they'll actually be able to throw it on TCU, whose secondary is brand new and had all kinds of problems stopping South Dakota State last week. I've also never been completely sold on Kenny Hill, and the Hogs defense has improved every year Bielema has been there. I'm not actually confident in Arkansas's ability to run it, but I think they'll pas efficiently enough and pounce on a couple of Hill's mistakes to put them in position to possibly win in the end.
 
16. Arkansas St +21.5 @ Auburn: Arkansas State had an awful time of things in week 1, but this teams didn't go from being the favorite in the Sun Belt to a dog overnight. They swept the Sun Belt last year with an 8-0 record and they return a lot of the guys from that team. They were torched by Toledo last week, but there isn't a QB on Auburn's roster that can hang with Logan Woodside in my opinion. Arky State has a scrappy team that knows it's better than it showed last week, especially defensively, and I think they'll turn in a good performance in a game that nobody thinks they have a chance in. 72% of the public on a pedesrian offense coming off an emotional game. I think ASU will come to play in this one.
 
17. Washington State +13 @ Boise: Boise is actually a better team to bet against at home than on the road. Who would have thought that 5 or 6 years ago? They are 6-7 as a home favorite the last 2 years, a far cry from the good old days when they regularly throttled teams despite huge spreads. Washington State is coming off a loss to Eastern Washington in week one, but they lost to Portland State in week one last year and rattled off 9 straight covers after that. Boise will be looking at a squad that's much different than the punchless attach they saw against La La last week, and they'll have to run all over the field covering all those Wazzou receivers instead iof just overpowering an overmatched line who's trying to run sideways against them. Bounceback effort for the Cougs here.
 
18 Iowa State +15.5 @ Iowa: Another team that lost to an FCS squad last week, but there's no shame in losing to Northern Iowa...Iowa's done it. ISU has a pretty good defense, and I think they'll be able to compete with an offense built on effciency more than explosiveness, though they can break off some long runs with Wadley. I also happen to think Matt Campbell knows what he's doing, and they have a very good running back in Mike Warren. ISU usually fares best when nobody expects they can compete in this game, and that's the case this week. I think they'll scrap in this one. We should also remember that Iowa is only 6-14 as a home favorite since 2013.
 
Timh said:
I think you may have put me over on the top on Tulsa, that was one I was looking at this week. Also agree on MTSU and VT in particular. BOL on the week, always enjoy your threads Brass.
Click to expand...

Thanks Timmy, always appreciate your input.
 
Cannot believe I blew the chance to grab Cincy at only 3. Wow...big mistake. Purdue is a dumpster fire at home.
 
So I left the Wyoming/Nebraska game at the end of the 3rd and it was a 7 point game. Can someone fill me in as to what in the hell happened in that game?
 
Did I just wager on the some of the worst performances in these programs' histories? I am just flabbergasted at how I can possibly find a way to uncover the opposite of good football performances.
 
What an absolute disaster of a week. There are still a couple left to finish, but i'm sure they'll all find a way to lose. I have done an expert job of unwittingly identifying a bunch of teams that almost certainly played their worst games of the year, but some of my reasoning on some of these was just complete nonsense and fantasy. Yeah...Iowa State's defense is good and they'll scrap and claw and stay in it. Arky State is better than they showed in week 1, Kentucky will actually exhibit a pulse. All declarations based nowhere in reality.

It's funny...I played a ton of dogs that I thought had a lot of value. At the end of the day you could have put 'em all on a dartboard, and done significantly better. Back to the salt mines tomorrow.
 
on Wyoming, complete QB meltdown. Threw pick 6 (off WR's hands) from their own 10. Neb by 14. Then next series from own 15 threw backwards pass that was off RB's hands and ruled fumble recovered by Neb at 1 (proper call). Next play Neb TD up 21. Next series just a regular INT. Neb then scored to go up 28. 3 INT in row. I turned off at this point and believe there was one more INT that led directly to subsequent Neb score. They were talking the Wyoming QB had hurt his ankle before all of this happened. The kid has some talent (reminds me of Favre) but throws the ball way too hard. Anyway, before all this as you saw you could make an argument Wyoming should have been tied or even ahead. Complete and utter meltdown in 4th. Neb didn't do much at all. sorry for rough day - seems to be going around though.
 
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