You got some better numbers than I did, but think you've basically got the right sides. JMU/Lehigh is so hard. Lehigh's results last year defy explanation, beating UNH, but losing to Bucknell and Lafayette by a combined 60. The Engineers should be marginally better, but CAA > Patriot, and JMU should be ok, no matter how terrible it looked last week. Dukes have a pretty good history of taking care of teams at lower levels, but those games haven't been on the road; and, if LU isn't exactly a difficult place to play, there is an actual home environment there. Gun to head, I'd probably take JMU, but nothing would really surprise.