Week 2 - NFL BLITZ

BlitzBandit

BlitzBandit

Friend of CTG
Total Plays - ( 0 - 3 ) ( 0% ) -4.95 units

ATS - ( 0 - 3 ) ( 0% ) -4.95 units

O/U - ( 0 - 0 ) ( 0% ) 0 units




Had a rough start to the season going 0-3. I took it as a friendly reminder to myself why I don't normally bet week one. Still easing into things and will continue to tread lightly until I get into a groove. I usually start hitting the accelerator around week 4... things should be no different this year. With that said... it's on to week 2...



Indianapolis -6.5

( 1 unit )

I know I'm going with a huge public play and against most cappers with this one... so that's not good. The thing is... I don't give a fuck. I like my chances here. Vince Young is not someone you want to bet against, but let's face it, neither is Peyton. The Titans played Indy well in both games last season and even won one... that should be enough to get Peyton and Co. to actually consider making a gameplan this time around.

I figure Addai will get plenty of carries and we are going to see the Peyton that plays conservative with short passes. In the two meetings against the Titans last season, Rhodes and Addai combined for 241 yards on 61 carries. The Titans have a tendency to use a shitload of Nickel and Dime coverages against the Colts to try to force them to run. The key for them is to keep the ball away from Harrison and Wayne as much as possible. That doesn't stop the Colts from moving the ball, but it does force slower drives and less attempts in the redzone throughout the game. I guess they figure the less points on the board, the better.. which makes sense.

The thing is, the Colts played like they were in perfect mid season form last week. And Gerrard didn't have much trouble passing against the Titans defense last week either when he racked up over 200 yards passing and a td. You have to remember the Titans were ranked in the bottom 10 in the league against the pass last season. Regardless their formations on Sunday against the Colts, Manning and Co. should be ready to get into the endzone enough times to cover this spread... whether with slow drives or quick ones.




here's my leans... with an asterisk next to my stronger leans...


* Miami +4

* Cleveland +7.5

* Carolina -6.5

Pittsburgh -10

NY Giants pick

Seattle -2.5

Denver -10

Chicago -11.5

* New England -3.5

* Philadelphia -6.5



still looking things over... not sure what I'm going with yet, but either way.. I'll be treading lightly for a couple more weeks.

gl to everyone this weekend.
 
add:

NY Giants -1

( 1 unit )

Yup.. I'm on em' again. They are filled with injuries and they are playing a team off a big emotional win. Yet, they are still favored. Manning may end up starting so this line may go up... so I'm taking it now. Regardless who starts, the Giants are a different team at home and they still have Plaxi, Shockey, and Toomer. Plus Ward played well. Add the fact the the public is all over the Cheeseheads and the line still don't move.

also adding two more public plays now...


Denver -10

( 1 unit )


Jacksonville -10

( 1 unit )


I'll add some thoughts and writeups on those two in a bit...

there are three other games I got my eyes on and think I'll be pulling the trigger...

be back a bit later.
 
lean to the big chalk, but i'm on the titans 7.5 so maybe pm can win by 7 and the both of us are happy...GL bro
 
add:

Cleveland +7

( 1 unit )

As bad as the 34-7 beating the Browns took last week from the Steelers looked, things actually were not that horrible. The Brown defense still has talent and is very much capable of keeping the Browns in games as long as the offense doesn't screw things up. Last week, Pittsburgh had 6 possessions that began in Browns' territory. Three of those happen to be their first three scoring drives. Cincinnati is off a win against the Ravens and is on a short week. It's very easy to jump on Cincinnati here... almost too tempting. They have dominated Cleveland for the most part in the recent past, but one thing Cleveland does have this season that they didn't have last season is Jamal Lewis. Even though he's not what he used to be, he has still had some big games against the Bengals before. In the past 5 years in 9 games against them, he has had over 100 yards rushing 6 times, including 2 over 180 plus yards. Cincinnati does not have the same rush defense that Pittsburgh does, so things should be easier for him this week.
 
add:

Miami +3.5

( 1 unit )

Dallas had huge offensive production last week against a Giants defense that was entering the season rated horrible... and only got worse with injuries. Now they face an above average defense on the road. The offense could struggle a bit more in this one. There is still questions and problems with Dallas' defense, so Trent Green should have a pretty good showing. He did okay against Washington passing for over 200 yards and a td with no picks. Dallas' defense was ranked 24th last year and they only had one sack against the Giants last week. Miami should be able to move the ball and hang with the boys who are coming off that big win over the G-Men and are now on the road in a hostile environment. The public is all over the boys... I'll be on the fins.
 
If Eli and Jacobs were healthy, I would like the Giants better, but I don't like ward, and I am nervous about Eli's health.

Your comments about the cleveland game are 100 percent right. If you care, I broke down the steeler game and see that they could potentially be over valued this week, only I think fading buffalo is risky this week considering kevin everett.

I am against you with the Colts, they are my sucker bet
 
thanks wiz... bol to you as well...

Gold... agree about Ward... I don't think Dallas was ready for him and the Packers will be... but the thing is, that offense clicks... and more importantly, the O-Line is better than most think... even if Hefty Lefty is in there, I think they win.
 
indy can win by 7 and we both win. on miami and giants with ya. one of us will come out the victor in jacksonville tho. gl on the rest.
 
well, I've done more than enough thinking for the week, so here are my last three plays for the Sunday...



Chicago -12

( 1 unit )

KCs' defense is below average in both the pass and run.. nowhere near the San Diego defense Chicago faced last week. This is Chicagos' chance to get back on track... they face Dallas at home next week and Detroit after that, so this could be the start of a little roll if they play their cards right. LJ won't be able to do shit against Chicagos' defense. I'll take the Bears at home.




Carolina -6.5

( 1 unit )

This is another strong lean I had that I'm sticking to. Houston can hold its own against the run, but Steve Smith should make this an air show. He's arguably the best receiver in the league right now and Houston won't be able to stop him. There was only four teams that gave up more touchdowns to receivers last season than the Texans did. Expect Houston to be brought back to earth this week. Afterall, this is not KC they're playing.




TB +3.5

( 1 unit )

This is another pick that not many people are going to like. I'm still sticking to it though. It's tough to determine what happens in this one. New Orleans ran the shit out of Deuce McAllister in the first game for 123 yards and a td and Drew Brees didn't do much. Then in the 2nd meeting, McAllister and Bush combined for only 27 yards on 26 carries.. but Brees passed for over 300 yards and 3 tds. Either way, I think TB keeps this one close. Bush couldn't do much to them in either game except for a punt return for a td... TB seems to like playing the cover two against NO and avoid passes to the receivers. It seems to work well against them. On the flip side, New Orleans defense was ranked in the bottom 10 last year and Addai did plenty well against them in week one. So whether it's Williams or Pittman running the ball, they should do well. Through the air, Garcia should be good enough to move the ball agianst this defense. TB had four games where they threw 2 passing tds... and 2 out of those four were against New Orleans. I'm on the bucs here.
 
here's my official card...


ALL FOR 1 UNIT...


Indianapolis -6.5

NY Giants -1

Denver -10

Jacksonville -10

Cleveland +7

Miami +3.5

Chicago -12

Carolina -6.5

TB +3.5



gl to all
 
COLTS :cheers:

BEARS:cheers:


But my favorite pick is the ballsy BUCS pick. :tiphat:Ballsy because the PUBIC is all over the Saints. About 80% absolutley love the Saints.

good luck Blitz
 
I have a feeling Eli plays though...

Ward had decent stats, but wasn't overly impressive last week, because those stats came on 2 main runs.

It sort of shut those " Giants are screwed without Tiki" people up. It totally proved the point that the passing game set up the running game. The Giants would have won with Jacobs in there controlling more clock, as the run game was something the Giants did to mix it up, and it wasn't really a threat. Eli was making great decisions.

I really wish Eli, Osi, and big jake played because the Giants would be -3 and they would certainly win and cover.
 
BlitzBandit said:
add:

Miami +3.5

( 1 unit )

Dallas had huge offensive production last week against a Giants defense that was entering the season rated horrible... and only got worse with injuries. Now they face an above average defense on the road. The offense could struggle a bit more in this one. There is still questions and problems with Dallas' defense, so Trent Green should have a pretty good showing. He did okay against Washington passing for over 200 yards and a td with no picks. Dallas' defense was ranked 24th last year and they only had one sack against the Giants last week. Miami should be able to move the ball and hang with the boys who are coming off that big win over the G-Men and are now on the road in a hostile environment. The public is all over the boys... I'll be on the fins.
Click to expand...
Im with ya on this one ,As of right now havent played anything but ,youre write up is DEAD ON!!!!! gl:smiley_acbe:
 
malapeet said:
COLTS :cheers:

BEARS:cheers:


But my favorite pick is the ballsy BUCS pick. :tiphat:Ballsy because the PUBIC is all over the Saints. About 80% absolutley love the Saints.

good luck Blitz
Click to expand...
:smiley_acbe::smiley_acbe::cheers: AGAIN LOOKING AT THIS ONE AS WELL. SEEMS TO ME THIS IS TO EASY -3 TO -4 SAINTS SHOULD CRUSH EM RIGHT ????TB SUCKED THE BIG ONE LAST WEEK BUCS NO CHANCE HERE .I THINK THIS IS A SUCKER BET ON N.O. AND COWGIRLS ,I THINK EITHER 1 OR BOTH LOOSE SU AND DONT COVER.ILL BE ON THIS ONE FOR SURE WITH YA BLITZ,MALAPEET BOL
 
Good Luck Blitz..you know Miami is my team so I'm not touching that one..hehe...wouldnt want to Jinx us :cheers:
 
TB was a BETTER sucker bet, but I called Tennessee my sucker bet ( and won)
 
C-Gold said:
TB was a BETTER sucker bet, but I called Tennessee my sucker bet ( and won)
Click to expand...


yup.. you sure did bud... helluva call...

the only reason I said it made for a better sucker bet is because not only was most of the public all over NO, but all the smart cappers in pretty much every site you can think of were playing NO or nothing...

even though most of the public was all over Indy, you can find alot of smart guys playing Tennessee this week...

but still a helluva call bud...

I wasn't saying it would have been a better sucker bet than the one you picked.... I don't do sucker bets... or suckers blitz.. or whatever.. hehe.... not my style...

but you do a great job at that... keep up the good stuff Gold

:cheers:
 
updated:


Total Plays - ( 2 - 11 ) ( 15.4% ) -11.8 units



wow.. the start to this season has been a nightmare for me... actually, I think I'm jinxed in all sports this year.. hehe...

anyway... still taking these first three weeks as an experimental learning period ( whatever that means.. lol ).. once week four rolls around.. I'll hopefully start getting some of this shit back... didn't expect to fall so much into the red in just two weeks... pathetic...

I played waaaaay too much chalk today.. and I paid for it... the good times will come around soon enough though... just takes a little patience... lots of season to go.
 
Put some money on the Eagles Blitz...

You are too good of a man to not make money tongiht.
 
party16.gif
 
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