Week 2 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Week 0
Hawaii +300

Week 1
Boise St +199
Nevada +344
Georgia St +1375
UNC +355
BC +160
SMU +113
Wyoming +553


Week 0/1 off to a slow start for the Underdogs!

Off to Week 2!

Who do we like....
Who stands out....
 
rambler882 said:
Texas St
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Definitely an interesting one.

Flashback to the 2017 Texas State game at Wyoming, Josh Allen's bad year. Wyoming won 45-10 as a 16 pt favorite. But, that was the game that Wyoming scored THREE non-offensive TDs. Texas St also missed 2 FGs. First downs were only 18-16 and total yards were only 333-262. But that was 2 years ago.

I think Texas St D really has a chance here. I think they will care more than Missouri appeared to.

I do worry about the Texas State O. What can anyone take from the aTm game? They didn't do much. Switched to Jensen at QB - think he will start? Jensen > Vitt?
 
s--k said:
Definitely an interesting one.

Flashback to the 2017 Texas State game at Wyoming, Josh Allen's bad year. Wyoming won 45-10 as a 16 pt favorite. But, that was the game that Wyoming scored THREE non-offensive TDs. Texas St also missed 2 FGs. First downs were only 18-16 and total yards were only 333-262. But that was 2 years ago.

I think Texas St D really has a chance here. I think they will care more than Missouri appeared to.

I do worry about the Texas State O. What can anyone take from the aTm game? They didn't do much. Switched to Jensen at QB - think he will start? Jensen > Vitt?
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The Wyoming off an upset letdown angle is in play as well, and would be THE factor pushing me over the edge on it. Especially with them having to go on the road after pulling the upset.
 
jedi ninja said:
The Wyoming off an upset letdown angle is in play as well, and would be THE factor pushing me over the edge on it. Especially with them having to go on the road after pulling the upset.
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For sure. I do like to have some helpful other reasons...hopefully with the Spavital era here and only game 2 after facing a rough D to open the year, I suppose we are going to have to take a leap of faith that Texas State has some O up their sleeve to get it done (OC former Montana HC Bob Stit). They do return 110 career OL starts entering this year and return 95% of their tackles. While they are learning new systems, there is alot of experience and veterans on this Texas State team.

Was the Wyoming win over Missouri largely a fluke? Under Bohl, since 2014 Wyoming is just 1-8 vs P5...that 1 win was last Saturday. Prior they lost by an average score of 13.75 to 42.65 (and some of those games were in Laramie that they also lost big, including some with Josh Allen). So Wyoming, while often a solid team, has no history of being a team capable of that kind of upset. I mean they have a strong history of MWC upsets, but not vs P5 schools. Not to mention Missouri had a 537-389 TY edge and was -3 in turnovers (10 free pts for WYO).

This has the makings of a nice pick.

* Wyoming off big home upset, travels
* Wyoming won in misleading final
* Wyoming has no history of beating P5 teams, let alone competing with them (ie fluke rather than some evidence that Wyoming is emerging as a better than average team)
* Home opener for Texas State
* Energy around program for Spavital's first season
* Alot of seniors and veteran roster
* Solid Texas State D and underrated LBs (London and Daniels All Sun Belt)
 
s--k said:
For sure. I do like to have some helpful other reasons...hopefully with the Spavital era here and only game 2 after facing a rough D to open the year, I suppose we are going to have to take a leap of faith that Texas State has some O up their sleeve to get it done (OC former Montana HC Bob Stit). They do return 110 career OL starts entering this year and return 95% of their tackles. While they are learning new systems, there is alot of experience and veterans on this Texas State team.

Was the Wyoming win over Missouri largely a fluke? Under Bohl, since 2014 Wyoming is just 1-8 vs P5...that 1 win was last Saturday. Prior they lost by an average score of 13.75 to 42.65 (and some of those games were in Laramie that they also lost big, including some with Josh Allen). So Wyoming, while often a solid team, has no history of being a team capable of that kind of upset. I mean they have a strong history of MWC upsets, but not vs P5 schools. Not to mention Missouri had a 537-389 TY edge and was -3 in turnovers (10 free pts for WYO).

This has the makings of a nice pick.

* Wyoming off big home upset, travels
* Wyoming won in misleading final
* Wyoming has no history of beating P5 teams, let alone competing with them (ie fluke rather than some evidence that Wyoming is emerging as a better than average team)
* Home opener for Texas State
* Energy around program for Spavital's first season
* Alot of seniors and veteran roster
* Solid Texas State D and underrated LBs (London and Daniels All Sun Belt)
Click to expand...

Watching it I thought the upset had a lot more to do w mizzou incompetence than wyo emerging as a legit team. That defense really fell off from last season it appears. They couldn’t tackle in that 2nd qrtr and combined w turnovers things just steamrolled on them. The run game wasn’t nearly as good as I would have expected either.

Wyo qb was only 6 for 16 for 92 yards throwing. Seems like a team facing them would be wise to really sell out vs the run. Mizzou ran a good 30ish plays more than wyo did so that d could get worn down if Texas has the ability to sustain drives.
 
2daBank said:
Watching it I thought the upset had a lot more to do w mizzou incompetence than wyo emerging as a legit team. That defense really fell off from last season it appears. They couldn’t tackle in that 2nd qrtr and combined w turnovers things just steamrolled on them. The run game wasn’t nearly as good as I would have expected either.

Wyo qb was only 6 for 16 for 92 yards throwing. Seems like a team facing them would be wise to really sell out vs the run. Mizzou ran a good 30ish plays more than wyo did so that d could get worn down if Texas has the ability to sustain drives.
Click to expand...

I only saw bits and pieces, but hearing the reaction from people who watched, like you, was Missouri not making plays on D that were there...or being out of position when they shouldn't have been. Inexperience, and perhaps inferior athleticism, at LB and S seems to get most of the blame. And just a lack of fire and desire out of the DL.

Most people have been explaining the Mizzou lack of run success to Roundtree only being used on primary run plays, since he isn't a capable pass protection guy. So the D knew Mizzou's likelihood of running whether Roundtree was in or Badie was in and if it was Roundtree the D would play run leading to little success for Roundtree (15att-41, Badie 16att-53). Regardless an SEC OL should be able to make holes...the other thing noted was Mizzou's lack of a deep threat both in WR personnel and Bryant's deep ball ability....so the safeties were more able to come down in run support without alot of fear of getting beat over the top if Mizzou passed.

The big unknown here is just exactly what Texas State is going to do on O. I suppose that is an advantage, assuming they can execute what they want to do, an advantage that Wyoming doesn't have any tape for this staff game planning vs a team they can actually matchup against. Hard to watch the Texas A&M tape with Vitt and Jensen both playing, not especially well, and take away alot because...well it was a vastly superior D unit in aTm just shutting it down. And one has to think that the staff is going to have a better plan and be more creative in a game they can actually win rather than showing their entire arsenal (to the extent they have an arsenal) vs a team that they are going to lose to no matter what they do.

I mean last year's Texas State team scored 7ppg in their final 3 games 2018. So, that is completely useless with Spavital and Stitt here now there is going to be an improvement both in scheming and playcalling. Exactly what that looks however like nobody knows - including Wyoming. Is it enough to hold us back from thinking they can win this game? The fact we haven't seen their O have success yet I mean, can we just assume they will have so O? I don't know...I am getting kinda hung up on that. Wyoming D has been pretty solid the last 2 years.
 
All good questions I certainly don’t have the answer too.

Texas st run d actually wasn’t horrible outside the late 85 yard run they gave up, which against a way bigger more physical Aggies team id think bodes well for them vs wyo.

As you mentioned dunno how anyone really knows what to expect out the offense?
 
What do we think about Eastern Michigan vs Kentucky?

EM QB Mike Glass as good or better QB than Tol's Guadagni and Guadagni had a good game until being knocked out last week. Also, Toledo was replacing their top 3 WRs. EM is replacing some familiar names from their front 7 that has made them so good, but it just seems like these Eastern Michigans teams under Creighton are always rock solid. The last TWO years they have only lost TWO games by double digits (15 home vs Army last year and 12 at CenMich two years ago). Plus they played at UK 2017 and only lost 20-24.

I think if anyone liked Toledo last week, then Eastern Michigan fits the bill as well this week.
 
I don't have any reason, from coaching all the way down to personnel, to support USF in any fashion. And especially the former as Strong's coaching just keeps seems to be getting worse by the day.

And I may have missed it above but I love Colorado as a home dog.
 
Tan1010 said:
Rice.

Home opener. Friday night. I think it's going to be a close one
Click to expand...
They let me down last week, a bit (thumbs down to the PK and to the HC who tried to run out the clock while Rice was losing!), as I had the moneyline in addition to a much bigger bet on the side. Once again they find themselves the beneficiary of a spot that has their opponent looking ahead.

I might give it another try.

I'm already on SDSU, Stan, and BYU ML.
 
Any consideration for Colorado? At home and Nebraska was not impressive. Colorado coach has them tackling
 
D-Woww said:
Really?? I was thinking of playing wake ml in my $100 to 5k thread. You really think Rice has a chance?
Click to expand...
Rice hung close in many games last year before faltering late. They also turned the ball over an insane amount. They played so many freshmen and different lineups it was nuts.

This year they are still young but experienced. They also brought in several grad transfers.

I think they will try to control clock. I've read their offensive line is improved and they have solid running backs.

Wakes D is nothing special so if Rice can control clock with the run and not turn the ball over multiple times I think it'll be very close.

Wake spanked em last year. 2 defensive TD. And they have UNC next week...possible lookahead.
 
Tan1010 said:
Rice.

Home opener. Friday night. I think it's going to be a close one
Click to expand...
It is a wonderful old stadium - sadly, there are often just a few thousand in their seats. The student body kinda makes an appearance, many times to see the band. Too bad b/c the stadium sits right there on the campus
 
Helton can't cover unless there's a huge talent advantage. If the talent advantage over Fresno wasn't big enough, he's in trouble this week. Yes, Tedford is a good coach, but so is Shaw, and Shaw has more to work with.
 
Ohio and Colorado looks live...

NC ATT&T +27.5 pts & +2200 ML is a long shot. They play at Duke, but they’re tough. Last 3 years, they’ve beaten FBS teams OTR. Their D holds teams to under 30 pts. They gave up 23pts to East Carolina last year and still won the game. They’ve had a 1000 yard rusher for the last six seasons.

They may also get blown out....
 
s--k said:
What do we think about Eastern Michigan vs Kentucky?

EM QB Mike Glass as good or better QB than Tol's Guadagni and Guadagni had a good game until being knocked out last week. Also, Toledo was replacing their top 3 WRs. EM is replacing some familiar names from their front 7 that has made them so good, but it just seems like these Eastern Michigans teams under Creighton are always rock solid. The last TWO years they have only lost TWO games by double digits (15 home vs Army last year and 12 at CenMich two years ago). Plus they played at UK 2017 and only lost 20-24.

I think if anyone liked Toledo last week, then Eastern Michigan fits the bill as well this week.
Click to expand...
Stoops and his staff have built this Ky team to the point they will avoid these types of upsets. Our depth on both lines is pretty stout. Still, my biggest worry is we have The Gators on deck next week in what is sure to be a huge emotional game. We play lights out in the 2nd half. If you must, I think the best bet is 1st half ML to take advantage of any potential slow start/look ahead situation. But Ky will win this game.
 
Going back to FCS dogs....

Furman +7.5 & +210ML @ Georgia St.....who is coming off their biggest upset in school history.

Players on messages boards are giving Furman respect and saying the Paladins will be tougher than the Vols. Furman plays uptempo, shuffling personal in/out. On paper, Furman is the bigger team in the trenches, they like to run the option and has a plethora of RB/FB than can run, catch and block. And if this game is close, the have a kicker than can nail from 60yrds. Grayson Atkins has hit 12 straight FG, not to mention handles all the other kicking duties. Furman plays V-Tech in week 3, so they can either go 1-2 or 2-1.....or maybe 3-0 ha!

Maine +9.5 & +260ML @ Georgia Southern....who let LSU pass all over them

Maine has a nice air raid attack. QB Chris Ferguson is a returning JR, where he threw for 2,300+yrds & 22 TD ly. He also has 2 WR that are also returning in Jaquan Blair & Earnest Edwards, both are combined for 96 catches, 1411 yards, 15 TDs. Their O-line is very talented, but lost a 1000yrd rusher from last season. They do have 2 solid RBs, that can pick up the slack. Emmanuel Reed (RB) came from Buffalo. Maine led the FCS is rush D, allowing 79.2 yards/game and ranked 4th in the nation with 3.36 sacks/gm. Maine is known for their defense and brings back a lot of experienced players.
 
Last edited:
M.W. said:
Helton can't cover unless there's a huge talent advantage. If the talent advantage over Fresno wasn't big enough, he's in trouble this week. Yes, Tedford is a good coach, but so is Shaw, and Shaw has more to work with.
Click to expand...

Shaw is better than Helton but I wouldn’t call him a good coach.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Stoops and his staff have built this Ky team to the point they will avoid these types of upsets. Our depth on both lines is pretty stout. Still, my biggest worry is we have The Gators on deck next week in what is sure to be a huge emotional game. We play lights out in the 2nd half. If you must, I think the best bet is 1st half ML to take advantage of any potential slow start/look ahead situation. But Ky will win this game.
Click to expand...

Yeah I don't love it, but will be on EMU plus the pts.
 
Ones I'm trying to figure out:

Vanderbilt, South Florida, Southern Miss, Texas State, North Texas, Texas, Tulane, Oregon State
 
There are 4 dogs playing tomorrow that all had better playing QBs, defenses, and won the turnover battle their first week. Granted strength of schedule is obviously in play here but what do you guys think of the chances of these 4? Texas A&M, Tulane, N. Illinois, and Southern Miss?

sdqlsat1.jpg
 
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