Week 2: MACtion with Marsski

Marsski

Marsski

MAC Marvel
YTD 4-2

We had a good first week in here as we really could have won every bet except for our attempted fade of terrible Ball State. I'm seeing the ball well so I hope it lasts.

We got a full slate this week with all 12 MAC teams in action. Miami/Ohio/BG/Western all sitting at 4-1 in conference, it's anybody's race...

Everyone welcome to chime in.


Tuesday

C Mich
@Toledo -17 50.5

W Mich
@BG -8.5 58.5

Ball State
@Buffalo -6.5 53.5


Wednesday

Kent State
@ Miami Oh -30.5 46

E Mich
@ Ohio -9.5 49.5

Akron
N Illinois -15.5 46.5
 
MAC Champs odds @ Draft Kings

Toledo and Buffalo have 2 losses, everyone else has 1.

BG +140
(They play vs. WMU, @ Ball, vs. Miami O)

Miami Oh +300
(They play vs. Kent, vs. NIU, @BG)

Ohio +425 (Found +500 @ Caesar's.)
(They play vs. EMU, @ Toledo, vs Ball)

Toledo +650
(They play vs. CMU, vs. Ohio, @Akron)

W Michigan +750
(They play @ BG, @CMU, vs. EMU)

Buffalo +6000
(They play vs. Ball, @EMU, vs Kent)

Everybody else...forget it.

I'm gonna look at the tiebreakers here shortly. There's no divisions this year.

First 4 Tiebreakers:
  • Head-to-head competition between the two tied teams
  • Win percentage versus all common opponents
  • Win percentage versus common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish
  • Combined conference win percentage of conference opponents
 
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Alright lets talk about Ball State @ Buffalo, home favorite now -5 so BSU has taken money, o/u 54.5 so ticked up a point

Buffalo (and Ohio) lost as much as anyone coming into the year. QB, top 2 RBs, top 5 WRs all gone and a new coach in Pete Lembo with MAC pedigree who brought in two new coordinators. It was hard to know what you had in Buffalo.
Ogbonna has been decent at QB, throwing some nice deep balls off play-action and has 57% completions with 10TDs and only 2 picks. Henderson has done a nice job at RB and has put up 107, 81, 92, and 142 rushing the last four weeks in the MAC. They definitely have some talent on offense and should have some big plays on the ground and air vs. Ball State's #98 rush D (#128 overall). The Bulls defense has some good linebackers and safety play but has given up 30,47,48,15,47 the last five weeks. They can be run on.

Ball State has a bad defense, but is showing some glimmers on offense as they threw for 280 on Miami O and 222 on NIU the last two weeks. Those are two of the better defenses in the MAC so not that bad a showing. Overall, QB Semonza is halfway decent with a 10/2 TD to INT ratio in MAC play and can operate the offense efficiently. They have a pretty good TE in Koziol and had a big game with 171 yards from WR Justin Bowick last week vs. Miami O. He's an EIU transfer who has been hurt a lot and is the deep ball threat they have been looking for to complement the underneath stuff. Like him to go over 46.5 rec yards. Running game is solid but not spectacular with EKU transfer Sloan.

The bottom line is that BSU has a terrible defense who will give up big plays, and an under the radar competent offense that adds a new dimension with Bowick.

No weather and very little wind for the game in Buffalo although it will be moderately cold.

My plays:

Ball State/Buffalo over 54.5 to win 1 unit
Bowick over 46.5 rec yards to win half unit (-113)
Bowick 18/1 first TD (pizza money bet)
 
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Chips head to the Glass Bowl where they are 0-7 dating back to 2008, Rockets at home are -14.5 so money coming in on Chips, O/U is now 51.5 so slight tick up

Having already lost 2 QBs, CMU is apparently gonna play 3&4 quarterbacks tonight as they are really struggling in the passing game with 63,132,92, 62 in the last four weeks. QB Freshman Jefferson was relieved by freshman Glasser in the second half last week after he had thrown for a grand total of 6 yards. Glasser did lead a late TD drive and made some OK throws but defense was sitting back in a soft zone. I'm doubtful he's a much better passer than Jefferson so I think Toledo loads up the box to stuff the run. They are #51 vs rush so not expecting CMU to have their way as only BG has been over 4.5 yards a carry in MAC play vs Toledo.

I would love to know if McNeil-Warren was back in the Toledo secondary but good luck finding shit like that out in the MAC. CMU's pass offense is such a mess, I'm not sure why people are lining up to bet the Chips unless its on coaching as I do prefer McElwain to Candle.

Toledo has problems running the ball this year with a shaky offensive line and the transfer of Peny Boone. Now, their center is out which further compromises their line. They do chuck it around pretty well and have one of the top pass catching rooms with Newton, Vandeross, and Torres all with talent. Their QB Gleason is inconsistent as hell and puts it up for grabs a good bit even though his TD/INT ratio is 18/7. If the OL can protect him vs. Chips, he should have guys running open downfield especially Newton.
This isn't the classic Toledo offense but they are talented enough to have beat Messy State and Miami Oh by double digits. I don't think I can take the dog here unless it was just on the hope that McElwain figures something out.

Don't really like this game to be honest as there's just a lot of question marks. If Toledo were to dip under -14, I would take them but I'm not expecting it.

No rain, no wind. Upper 30s

Lean to Chips Team Total under 17.5 (-120)
Lean to Newton over 69.5 yards receiving -114

Gonna think about it a little more.

My play:
Chips TT under 17.5 to win half unit (-120)
 
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Western @ BG, home fav up to -9.5 which is up 1 point, o/u now at 57.5 so a tick down

BG has been the best team in the MAC all year really and this is a big one for the MAC race. I think Western's defense showed last week that they aren't very good and unless they can force multiple turnovers from BG's ball control offense I expect the Falcons to take care of business at home.
You can run on BG a little bit and I would expect Western's RB Nixon/Buckley tandem to have some holes to exploit. I'd like to get Nixon over rush yards but Buckley actually has more carries the last three weeks combined so I will stay off it.
Fannin over receiving yards didn't quite get home last week as he "only" had 86. Western gave up 8/72 to Rudolph and 9/102 for Kozol who are probably the next best TEs in the MAC unless you want to say Torres (TOL).
Sooooo let's try it again with Fannin and hope he can get over the hump as they will feature him again.

I'm worried about the back door with such a potent offense for Western, so I'm gonna play BG moneyline in a parlay with another team I like on Saturday at home in Illinois (off a bye vs Sparty).

NO rain, light wind. Upper 30s

My plays:

BG/Illinois ML parlay 1 unit bet to win 1.14

Prop: TE Fannin over 93.5 receiving yards to win half unit -112
 
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4-1 night, only a bullshit late TD from Central kept me from a perfect night. (I did lose my pizza money bet on Bowick but no complaints!)

Kent @ Miami, home fav is -30.5, o/u 47 neither one has really moved much.

Winless Kent hasn’t even scored in 8 quarters and I don’t think it gets much easier against Miami who has a top-tier MAC defense. Kent cannot run the ball and cannot pass block.

It’s probably too many points to lay but do you really want to be holding a Kent ticket here? No thanks buddy.

Miamis coach isn’t known for running up the score so I think we see a ho hum buttoned up grinder from them.
Unless Miami scores in the 40s, I think this one stays under as I think Kent is unlikely to score more than once (if that).

It looks like there’s probably rain so even better.

My play:
Miami/Kent under 47 to win 1 unit
 
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For some reason, BETMGM has put odds back up on winning the MAC. They have BG -120, Miami +300, Ohio +650, Toledo +900

Call me a homer, but I'm putting a unit on Ohio at that juicy price. W Michigan losing last night means that the Bobcattians are in the MAC championship if they can beat E Mich, @ Toledo, and Ball State. That's because BG and Miami play to end the year and someone has to lose.
Toledo at +900 is also tempting but they would still need Miami to beat BG to make the championship game if they ran the table.


My play: Ohio to win MAC championship +650 1 unit bet to win 6.5 (available on BETMGM)
 
I'm a little busy today to give you guys the full breakdowns...so quick and dirty here....

Akron @ NIU, home fav had dipped to 14.5, O/U 45 so has ticked down a point and a half

As I said last week, NIU has been very unlucky and is playing better and while I certainly see how you could lay the points here, they just aren't a team that blows you out or does well as a favorite. They have won one game by more than 14 points this year and it was W Illinois.
Finley is a decent enough QB for Akron and they have a Mich State transfer at RB so while they suck, they aren't Kent. They have a mini-bye here with 10 days rest and extra prep time for Coach Joe Moorhead who was the OC at Penn State and Oregon.

I'm not really a trends guy but NIU is 3-15-1 as a favorite over the last three years and 1-7-1 as a favorite of 7 or more in that same time. Woof.

I didn't want to lose the hook, so I just played it.

Looks like there is likely some rain in Dekalb.

My play:

Akron +14.5 to win 1 unit
 
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EMU @ Ohio, home fav now -11 so rising, and O/U 50.5 so maybe up half point

I'm not betting this game as I will ride the MAC Championship ticket for my Bobcats that I just snagged.

I would probably take EMU with the points otherwise, and also I lean slightly to the under. I don't feel like trying to thread the needle here so no bet.
I'll take a look at the props here shortly.

My play:

Ohio RB Tyus rush yards over 73.5 to win half unit (-114)
 
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I thought Bobcats RB Tyus was hurt because of the Ohio message board who was saying he could be gone for the year after he got knocked out during the Miami game.
He had 14 carries last week and looked fine and should be getting 15-20 carries tonight in what looks to be a ground-based offense vs. EMU.
The leading rusher for EMU opponents in MAC play has gone for 100 Miami, 108 Akron, 118 CMU, 78 Toledo, and 63 Kent.

Tyus has gone over this number in 6/8 games this year and really we need to toss the Miami game out. He's the second leading rusher in the MAC at 694 yards on the season. I'd play this bigger but scared about Hunt stealing carries if Tyus starts slow.

My play:

Ohio RB Tyus rush yards over 73.5 to win half unit (-114)


I think I'm done for today so good luck boys.
 
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After that 1st half, I figured the NIU under was toast.

Another winning night and much appreciated Marsski, looking forward to next week again!

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