Week 2 Lookahead Lines/Openers Discussion Thread

Capaholic

Capaholic

Proud Member of Chiefs Nation
Line to the left was the Week 2 Lookahead Line, Line to the Right is the William Hill Opener

Carolina -5.5/ -6.5
Tennessee -3/ -3
Chargers -3.5/ -3
Buffalo -2.5/ -2.5
Baltimore -9.5/ -13.5
New England -9.5/ -14.5
Dallas -3.5/ -6.5 (bet down quickly to 5.5)
Houston -3.5/ -8 (now -8.5)
Pitt -4.5/ -4.5
SF -2.5/ -2
GB -2.5/ -2.5 (now -3)
KC -6.5/ -9
Rams -2.5/ -3
Chicago -1/ Pick (other books with Denver -1)
Atlanta -1/ Philly -1
Cleveland -3/ -2.5

Takeaways:

Balt, NE and KC big movers. All seem warranted
Houston a big mover. Based on tomorrow’s game, this could either stay, or creep back down. Still think it’s too many right now
Philly now favored over Atlanta. Denver now favored over Chicago in some places.
Cleveland off key number of 3 at the Jets
 
KC & NE beat what should be quality opponents. I didn't see any of the game so wondering if the beat down Miami took was a product of a good Balti team or a complete horse shit Miami team.

NE usually struggles in South FL but things could be different this year.
 
Miami was terrible........ Balt looked good... but miami could not generate any pressure or cover Hollywood Brown..... this is prob the Worst Miami team in a while and they have had some bad ones and NE always struggles for this match up for whatever reason..... but even if BB doesnt come up with a game plan and keeps everything super Vanilla they should still win by DD
 
Bill B threw fat Pat a bone last year @ Detroit. The entire team mailed it in.

I doubt he gives up a full W as the Dolphin's don't even want it but he may use this as a game to emphasize the running game and clock.
 
I don't normally put a lot of stock in the "revenge" angle, especially at the pro level. But you would be hard pressed to find a more embarrassing loss for Belichick than that debacle last year in Miami. I'm guessing he'll have everyone's eyes taped open this week and make them watch that final play, over and over and over. The coaching staff was as much to blame for the personnel on the field, but still.

Lay the points.

 
He takes offense to the Fish for that?

They won the ship...

It's his assistant and can name the #.
 
"Revenge" isn't accurate, poorly stated. We can just say they walked out of that park in a bad state last December. Arguably, given the greatest coach the game has ever seen, it was one of the most inexplicable losses in the history of the league.

I don't know how the Flores angle will play out. But even with a moderate level of sympathy, Pats are going to get into the high 30's. Miami's not going to get out of the mid teens.

Flores isn't going to mind coming back as the DC in Foxboro. Sunday will just be another step in that direction.
 
surprised that TEN was -3, but i imagine that was very different pre-retirement and i think that was an overreaction anyway
 
Inspekdah said:
Why? Another former staffer.

No reason this line isn't -24 unless there's a sympathy angle.
Click to expand...

As of last September BB‘s record vs former assistants is about identical to his overall win percentage. But sure he just lost on purpose every time?

When does the market ever turn itself on its head over one recent game? Lol. You‘re looking at one result, a lot more things go into lines than either of us can enumerate.
 
Not sure Carolina should be laying a td to anyone right now with cam not looking great. TB does suck, but Jameis does have the weapons to put points on the board. Def lean the +6.5 or wait and see if we get 7

Laying the 4.5 with Dallas at Washington. This is one of those games where by week 11 we will look back and say "how was that the line lol"

I really like Pittsburgh TT over. They sucked Sunday, but lets not overreact, the Pats are the best team in the league. If you look at how Cincy carved up Seattles defense, they did it by getting the ball in the hands of fast guys (or guy...john ross in particular). Guess what the Steelers have? Lots of fast guys. I expect a huge JuJu game and look for Washington to get more snaps than Moncrief going forward. Seattles defense is not good anymore

I think Indy gets the W in Tennessee...like states its a pk on a neutral field and I think Indy is much better

Got 3 with Minnesota when the line came out. Seeing 2.5 now. Im happy with the fg; Minnesota might really have something going

Is Baltimore -13.5 the biggest overreaction line of all time?

Houston lost a heartbreaker, but Deshaun is that dude. the thing that sucks is that hes def not getting through the year with that o-line. Myles Jack will feast. But you can't bet on Gardner Minshew. Houston should win this one big.

Cincy gave SEattle a fight, but to me they are still a bottom 5 team. Not sure they should be favored against anybody, and I am not sold that John Ross is a 1 WR now

No idea what to do with this New England line. It is probably a stay away, but I would be shocked if they don't win by 20+. What will the 1h line be, -10?

Awesome job by Oakland last night. Hope they enjoyed it, they are about to lose 8 in a row

Will likely be on Denver in a bounce back spot

Public will be all over Clevleand. Sharps will be on the Jets. Not sure if I can back the Jets though. Baker is my boy...cant see him falling to 0-2

leans:

SF +1
Denver -1
NE 1h
Steelers TT over
TB +7
Dallas -4.5 big
KC -9 and over
Houston -9
 
I can't buy into any sort of revenge angle for the Pats, they won the fuckin' SB & are playing who will likely be the door mat of the league. No matter how good the Pats have been & how shitty the Phins have been in years past I have watched one too many matchups in Miami where I was left scratching my head. No reason this early on in the season for BB to give a fuck about this game (hell he doesn't when HFA is on the line) let alone run up the score. Unless he's looking at the #6 (I think) playoff tie-breaker for points scored.

It's rare but I agree with VC's above statement about over reaction.

Sweetheart teaser with Miami to +32???
 
"Houston lost a heartbreaker, but Deshaun is that dude. the thing that sucks is that hes def not getting through the year with that o-line."

He cant make it through his progressions. He forced the ball to Nuke all night. Some of it is line play, the other is that he is locked on with blinders. I realize Hopkins is great, but damn, look at other receivers. He missed the opportunity to throw to wide open receivers because he was locked on Hopkins.
 
@Zeke cant fathom that sweetheart teaser...if u wanna do it bring the pats down to -2.5 or whatever. But tell me there is no way you can see the pats winning 48-12
 
askias said:
Dallas/NE/KC for the win
Click to expand...

think Houston gets the W too

Dallas is a road short favorite which is scary, but I like them and I am even gonna lay the points this week. I think that offense is very real. They may not beat up on everyone the way they did the Giants, but they are going to score on everyone.

Washington I think is in a great fade spot. On the surface, it looks like they gave philly hell, and they did for a half. But realistically, the Eagles first half was their preseason; once they got their act together it was game over. The Skins scored when the Eagles were rusty in the beginning, and when they let them march down the field at the end. I also think that Ereck Flowers and Donald Penn played better than they will against Dallas. Home or not, cant see Washington hanging around here
 
D-Woww said:
@Zeke cant fathom that sweetheart teaser...if u wanna do it bring the pats down to -2.5 or whatever. But tell me there is no way you can see the pats winning 48-12
Click to expand...

No I can't do it but the fact that we are questioning a home divisional dog getting 32 points is just mind-boggling. Bovada's 13 pt (-140) sweetheart would get Pats down to 6 & ties lose so NFW would I waste all that & still need a team to win by 7.
 
The Bears defense just held Rodgers pretty much in check. Gotta figure they were salivating while watching Flacco last night. Im not sure how much the Bears offense will score but Im fairly certain the Broncos offense wont do much.
 
Coverdatspred said:
The Bears defense just held Rodgers pretty much in check. Gotta figure they were salivating while watching Flacco last night. Im not sure how much the Bears offense will score but Im fairly certain the Broncos offense wont do much.
Click to expand...

always hard to say when Denver is the home team...they are completely different.

If you go back and look at the 10pm MNF week 1 game, so many strange things happen. I think SF won one year and then lost 14 of the final 15. That Bears/Packers game was a shitshow in general; both teams clearly shaking off rust.

I absolutely believe the Bears have a good defense, but I think Mitch is bad and playing in Denver is dangerous; think ill prob be on the home team to eek out some sort of 20-15 type win
 
Remember hearing Den at home in Sept has been exceptional from a capper on the radio who is fading Bears this year. Fangio factor too, 6-3 type game ? Lol
 
D-Woww said:
Kc & NE are going to be in a trillion ml parlays
Click to expand...

With good reason. I always look to play a dog first (sometimes to my detriment) but I don't see why you would play on a terrible team vs a top tier capable of putting up video game numbers. I'd say they are both safe ml wise and the line moves are warranted.

Oakland just lost their fs for the year and Burfict is banged up. KC is gonna torch them. Oakland might give them a game but I just can't see a situation where Maholmes fails to exploit that secondary.

The Patriots need no motivation to murk the Fins by 20+. That team is trash... Sony Michel gonna run for 3 tds himself. Said last week the Ravens might hit the total themselves vs Miami, can't see much of a turnaround this week. Pats might have themselves a 49-17 type win or a 27-6 type win.
 
Jags/Texans game is interesting to me. I know a lot of it has to do with Brees and the passing game, but the Saints were ripping the Texans run d. Watt looks like he will no longer be able to handle double teams. The Texans D let up 7 plays of 24+ yards. I don't think I could lay chalk after watching that game. Jags defense is the only hope. Personally I think Watson is amazing but the line still hasn't gelled. Might take a couple games but as long as that bum Seantrell Henderson is starting they will have pressure coming at Watson.

Now we have the Jax d coming off a piss poor showing and they know they are the only hope to keep things close. Minschew too small of a sample size for me to say he will help or hurt the offense. I could see Jax pounding Fournette and trying to keep this a low scoring physical game.
 
Minshew was a grad student who was very close to being Bama's 3rd string QB last year and then getting a job selling insurance. He ended up transferring to WSU and was successful but I'm pretty sure you would be too in that offense. Most scouts had him as an undraftable QB. Jacksonville took a shot on him. He looked very bad this preseason

And then he torched KC last week hahaah. That actually did make me realize how terrible KCs defense is; don't be afraid to play overs every week on them. But yeah, I love Minshew bc he seems like a good dude and I love the stache, but I don't see any world where he is a capable NFL QB. Maybe if you are being generous, you can defend KC's d because they did not prepare for tape on him, but he really doesn't have any plus attribute. I think Houston will stack the box, dare Minshew to throw and the Jags will struggle to score double digits.

I hope I am wrong here too, Minshew being good int eh NFL would be an awesome story
 
Lexington 125 said:
Pats might have themselves a 49-17 type win or a 27-6 type win.
Click to expand...
I think they wreck shop in the 1H so they'll be able to coast in the 2H. Why wear yourself out in the 2H running up the score when you can throttle down and get a head start on resting up for the Jets game next week. I don't think they will go full throttle in the heat the entire game if they can get it over with in the 1H.

Bottom line, the Patriots are scheduled to play 3 division games in three consecutive weeks. They still need gas in the tank two weeks from now in Buffalo, so why burn yourself out trying to cover the spread in Miami or "get revenge" or whatever. I'll be on the Pats 1H for sure.
 
D-Woww said:
Minshew was a grad student who was very close to being Bama's 3rd string QB last year and then getting a job selling insurance. He ended up transferring to WSU and was successful but I'm pretty sure you would be too in that offense. Most scouts had him as an undraftable QB. Jacksonville took a shot on him. He looked very bad this preseason

And then he torched KC last week hahaah. That actually did make me realize how terrible KCs defense is; don't be afraid to play overs every week on them. But yeah, I love Minshew bc he seems like a good dude and I love the stache, but I don't see any world where he is a capable NFL QB. Maybe if you are being generous, you can defend KC's d because they did not prepare for tape on him, but he really doesn't have any plus attribute. I think Houston will stack the box, dare Minshew to throw and the Jags will struggle to score double digits.

I hope I am wrong here too, Minshew being good int eh NFL would be an awesome story
Click to expand...
Meanwhile a few other scouts said Foles will never see his job back now. Hard to believe but should be interesting. Good to see him get a shot then some 12 year lifetime clipboard holder like Chad Henne etc
 
aplous said:
Denver's September home record has been outstanding
Click to expand...
As a Bears fan it is hard to back them here confidentally. The thing in their favor...which should matter.... is they are the better team by a wide margin on both sides of the ball.
 
austinhous said:
SF flew to Youngstown after the Tampa game & are spending all week in Ohio.
Click to expand...
Shanahan believes that being able to stay on the East Coast is a big plus for his team.

“I think it’s huge. I mean, I’ve learned that the hard way over these last couple years, not just the time change, which is very tough going back and forth, especially when you have an early game, but also just the flying.

“How long it is and when you play the long game, how much you can swell up on the plane after and having to come back, so I think it’s a huge advantage.”

Stambaugh Stadium wasn’t used for practice due to scheduling conflicts with other teams at YSU.

“Everything is perfect, you know, we just need a football field and even though we were out on a soccer field, but it was lined with football lines so that makes it a football field, and it was great,” Shanahan said “Great turf out there, which was nice, and the players are in there lifting right now. I haven’t been in the weight room, obviously, but I hear it’s good, so I know our guys are happy.”
 
D-Woww said:
always hard to say when Denver is the home team...they are completely different.

If you go back and look at the 10pm MNF week 1 game, so many strange things happen. I think SF won one year and then lost 14 of the final 15. That Bears/Packers game was a shitshow in general; both teams clearly shaking off rust.

I absolutely believe the Bears have a good defense, but I think Mitch is bad and playing in Denver is dangerous; think ill prob be on the home team to eek out some sort of 20-15 type win
Click to expand...
SF beat Jeff the Fraud Fisher that Monday night. I left the game before the 2 minute warning of the 1st half. That's how bad the Rams were.
 
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