Week 2 HAMMERS

[HammersSpreads]

'14 REGULAR SEASON:


Season Record: 6-5 (54.55%)
Sides Record: 6-4 (50.00%)
Totals Record: 0-1 (0.00%)
ML Parlay: 0-2


Small Potatoes (<1u): 2-1 (66.67%)
on the REG: 2-4 (33.33%)


MASTER Record (3u): 2-0 (100%)

HAMMERED Record (5u): 0-0 (0.00%)



WEEK 1 PLAYS:

Tulsa (-6) ----- MASTERED WINNER
Luck box was wide open here. Learned a lot from both teams. First, Tulane is better than I thought, and I dont think their defense is as bad as it looked....I think Dane Evans has just taken a much bigger step than most expected. Tanner Lee looks good for the future of Tulane....he can take a hit & still put the ball out there.....not scared at all. Tulsa's defense isnt as good as I thought they would be (although I think they will gel come midseason) & they are incredibly soft on the O & D lines. Dane Evans looked much better than anyone could expect, they have really good WR's who are big, & hard running RB's. Tulsa will compete for a bowl, but I will predict they will knock off a top team in the AAC.
Ole Miss (-9.5) ----- Small Potatoes WINNER
Good pick....not much else to say I suppose. At least once Bo Wallace settled in.
Penn St ML (+115) ----- on the REG WINNER
James Franklin man crush lives on. They very much deserved they game & could have won by more. Good pick. Although the end of game clock management by Franklin was suspect.
Virginia (+19.5) ----- Small Potatoes WINNER
Good pick. Virginia defense could be good....well at least their DL. They could play some teams close & upset someone this year. Will be interesting what they do at QB the rest of the year....
Troy ML (+130) ----- on the REG LOOOOOOSER
I hope this is the worst pick I have all year. Loved the pick for 3 weeks, then started hating it 2 days before the game. It was an AWFUL pick. I have zero desire to touch Troy with even a 900 foot pole anytime soon
Bama/WVU U 55.5 ----- on the REG LOOOOOOSER
Loser, but I think was a good pick. I did expect WVU to be much better (hence why I said they could upset my Sooners this year), but their offense was fairly efficient. I think Saban & Co still havent figured out hurry up offenses, & Bama could have troubles at QB. But overall, the under should have hit IMO....no regrets here.
Arkansas (+19) ----- Small Potatoes (0.5u) LOOOOOSER
Should have done 1st half play instead obviously. Not mad about the play....think it should have hit.
Georgia (-7.5) ----- on the REG WINNER
Good pick. I figured Gurley could run wild & he did. Also loved Pruitt vs Morris. Could have put more in this, but had worries about the LOS battle.
Southern Miss (+29.5) ----- on the REG LOOOOOOSER
Yep I'm a retard. USM still sucks hard....they have so much work to do all over the field. I dont want to believe that the talent is gone & I want to say that it was all b/c they faced an SEC foe, but they did not look good at all. Their OL might as well just stayed home. I guess I'll be curious to see if this team has any life as the season goes on
LSU (-5) ----- on the REG (1.5u) LOOOOOOOSER
Number dropped to where I wanted it towards kick off. I thought about putting it down when it was -3 or -3.5 but didnt. At least I would have won money back. No real opinion on this pick. I was loose with the bets this week & this was a game I normally & shouldnt have picked.
Baylor (-33) ----- MASTERED WINNER
This game shouldnt have even been the sweat that it was. Could have easily been at least 55-0 at the least. Good pick. Was a game I didnt have on my radar b/c I hate taking big spreads, but as the week went on ended up being my favorite play. No Petty, no Goodley, no Kicker......no problem. Baylor offense didnt look in rhythm though....could have been b/c Petty was hurting early. But most importantly their run game wasnt as explosive as it has been...the OL got very little push tonight. SMU limited big run plays & that could be a concern for Baylor going forward. Defensive scheme for Baylor was perfect, but if Bennett does that come conference play then offenses will pass for big plays on them & Baylor will drop a game. Baylor DL will be really really good this year, however

ML Parlay (+170) ----- CMU, Ole Miss, Wazzou, Bowling Green LOOOOOOOSER
ML Parlay (+150) ----- BYU, Houston, Ohio St, N'Western, Toledo LOOOOOSER

I played more games than I normally do....& probably shouldnt have. Still a winning week, but normally I limit plays to 5-8 plays, & plan on getting much more picky hopefully.


Week 2 Leans:
UTSA +7
Wazzou -2
Akron +15.5
CMU +2.5
Toledo +6
Navy -4
South Bama pk
Va Tech +12
Colorado St +10.5
Mich St +13.5

Wanna see what the line is on EWU & Washington

Interesting fact: SDSU was +22 or so less than a week ago against UNC....& is now +15.

I have a couple others I like at first glance, & this will get trimmed down. I like a lot of these dogs the most though, & think many of them have a good shot to win SU.



Week 2 Plays:
South Bama (-3) ----- MASTERED
Stanford (-2.5) ----- MASTERED
Michigan St (+13) ----- REG (1.5u)
Sparty ML (+400) ---- Small Potatoes (0.5u)
Va Tech (+12) ----- REG (1.5u)
Hokies ML (+385) ----- Small Potatoes (0.5u)
Toledo +4 (-120) ----- REG
Rockets ML (+150) ----- Small Potatoes (0.5)
North Texas (-2.5) ----- REG
Akron (+14) ----- Small Potatoes
Navy/Temple O 58.5 ----- Small Potatoes
BYU/Texas U 46 ----- Small Potatoes

ML Parlay:
Wazzou/Ravens (+193) ----- 0.66u to win 1.25u

ML Parlay:
K-State, Kentucky, Maryland, ULM, Carolina (+133)

 

[mrob]

BOL Hammer, like USA, Navy, Wazzou so far

 

[HUNT]

gl hammer

 

[HammersSpreads]

Stanford -2.5 x2u

ill prob add to this as well. I'll do some write ups on it today or tomorrow

 

[TahoeLegend]

Like all your dogs except CMU and Colorado State.

Also like your Navy and Stanford picks. We are thinking alike this week.

Not as sold as you are on Tulsa so I'm leaning to the Sooners this week. You are right about the luck in the Tulsa game. They looked a little better this year and showed they have some fight, but it's hard to believe any program could fall as far and as fast as that one since Blankenship took over.

I'm probably biased because I had Tulane last week. Went 5-1-1 and Tulane was the loss. I hate kickers.

I notice you do a lot of writeups on the Sooners. I went to OU for undergrad school and just wondered if you did also.

 

[Schrute]

Like it

GL this week Hammers

 

[HammersSpreads]

Stanford -2.5 ----- MASTERED
I actually entered this week planning on betting USC on the ML. But after looking deep into it I've absolutely fallen in love with Stanford. Numerous things I like here. First I can look at over reaction from week 1. This time last week a majority of people were worried about USC against Fresno. Team distractions etc etc. USC goes out and dominated against a Fresno team they absolutely should have and now there is a lot of love for the Trojans. Second is I think this is a bad match up for USC. My 1 concern is that Sark has had some success against Shaw, which I don't overlook. Of course 2 years ago Stanford was coming off an upset of #2 USC so it was a bad spot for them. Anyway, this looks like a bad match up in many ways to me. Sark brings in hurry up no huddle offense, which Shaw usually does a good job against and Stanford has great game plans for that Stanford is built for it. This is battled against by controlling clock and dominating the LOS, which Stanford should be ready to do here. I love USC starting DL, but beyond the starters there is little depth....and if Stanford wears down this defense, then USC will be in a world of trouble. No proven depth on the DL and inexperience is a killer IMO. I don't worry about Stanford's OL, there are some teams that have positions I don't worry about turnover, and Stanford's OL is one of them. A big reason is that they use 8 OL on many plays they run, so these boys have experience. I will also be looking for Stanford to have success with their big WR's and the fact that they have TE's again this year....I won't be surprised to see some good TE play this game. Flipping the side of the ball to USC offense, who has 2 true freshman starting on the OL (Mama maybe injured so I don't know if he's even playing), and this looks bad going against Stanford's DL. I know Stanford lost some key players in Murphy and Skov, but they still have a whole lot of experience (which I love) on this side of the ball, and depth. Bottom line here is that USC's youth, lack of experience, and depth concerns look like a problem here. I expect Stanford play their typical type of football game here at home (where they are dominate) and wear down USC. If you are into revenge situations (I'm not really), then it plays heavy here as USC beat Cardinal last year and I know they are still thinking about that. I like Sark and think he will bring USC back to Natty Title contention, but this game right now doesn't seem to be it IMO....too much youth and not enough depth right now for this type of opponent. Another thing to note is that Leonard Williams has a high ankle sprain....I don't know if there's much stock to put into this as he's still a beast and played injured last year, but high ankle sprains are tough to play through.
This would be HAMMERED if it wasn't for 1.) me questioning Sarks success against Shaw and 2.) it still being so early in the season and we really don't know a lot about the teams yet. I usually don't big bet games I think will be close and I will have to sweat, and even though I won't be surprised to see Stanford win by DD's, I also expect to sweat this one a bit.

 

[GoIrish!]

i'm on it..i'm with ya! gl!

 

[HammersSpreads]

Like all your dogs except CMU and Colorado State.

Also like your Navy and Stanford picks. We are thinking alike this week.

Not as sold as you are on Tulsa so I'm leaning to the Sooners this week. You are right about the luck in the Tulsa game. They looked a little better this year and showed they have some fight, but it's hard to believe any program could fall as far and as fast as that one since Blankenship took over.

I'm probably biased because I had Tulane last week. Went 5-1-1 and Tulane was the loss. I hate kickers.

I notice you do a lot of writeups on the Sooners. I went to OU for undergrad school and just wondered if you did also.

Glad to see we are on the same page this week with some plays. As for Tulsa, if I were to bet it I'd prob go with OU too. I dont think Tulsa is a top team or anything, last week I just saw marked improvement over where they were last year. Defense isnt good still, but Dane Evans improvement looks to be very good. Thanks not saying Tulsa is going to give OU any type of fight this week though lol....OU should take care of business. The game last week was wild for sure....both teams kickers missed chip shot FG's. I was very fortunate & you were very unlucky lol. Glad you still had a damn good week though!
It's a big year for Blankenship at Tulsa IMO though....hes gotta show they are a better team. This year we will see how good of a coach he is & how good of recruiting he's been doing. I dont think they have fallen that far off though...I wont be surprised if they are a bowl team this year in a new, tougher conference. Blankenship did lead them to the CUSA championship 2 years ago after all.

& ya I went to OU also. At the downtown HSC though. Its tough living in Oklahoma with all these biased OU fans ha ha....I'm sure you know a thing or 2 about that.

 

[HammersSpreads]

I guess I could add to the Stanford pick by stating how important this game is bc their schedule is unkind this year. Their road schedule is brutal this year....gotta take care of business at home.


South Bama -3 ----- MASTERED
This is a typical game I would big bet on as I feel like USA will win by DD's. USA is one of these smaller programs that are still young to the FBS scene that no one really knows about right now. Much like UTSA.....teams that were noticeably better towards the end of last year and it should carry over to this year, while people begin to take notice to them. They are riding a wave of confidence, have a lot returning, and have good talent. Almost everyone returns on offense except for QB. This would be a slight concern here, but Kent St shouldn't be a problem regardless. Bridge is a typical dual threat guy, and I like is running ability, but question his throwing. On a bright note, he did do very well in passing camp this summer, making it to the finals (for what that's worth), so maybe there's reason for optimism. The running backs are loaded and the OL is in tact, so I see USA running well here and have little concern overall. Kent St was a beautiful team 2 years ago, but it was obvious last year (and through 1 game this year) how big of an influence Dri Archer had on this team. Without him they have been incapable of running the ball, and I don't think that'll change this week even if Durham is healthy and plays (last year it was obvious he's not effective unless he has speed to compliment his power running). I do like Reardon for Kent St, but I like USA's experienced and deep secondary more...and think they will get some Turnovers in this game.
While I do hesitate to bet a team that is playing their first game on the road against a team that already has a game under their belt, I just think Kent St is severely overmatched. Hell, last week Kent St was dominated by Ohio and could have lost by A LOT more.....they were +4 in turnovers and still lost, that's gotta be a red flag for this team. 2 teams trending in opposite directions.....USA UP, KSU DOWN.


I'll have the rest up tomorrow evening. Ohio St & Mich St will be there for sure. Finishing the others.

 

[HammersSpreads]

Go ahead and add my play for tonight:

Wazzou ML/Ravens ML (+193) ----- 0.65u to win 1.25u
love the value here.
Feels like a must win for Wazzou
And of course I'm high on Baltimore, and I don't think they lose this game.
I have been wanting to bet Wazzou all week as I think this is a very important game for them to win. And I was gonna bet Baltimore on Sunday no matter what. So this way I get both in, and feel very confident about this play for little to risk.

 

[HammersSpreads]

Toledo +4 (-120) ----- REG
Rockets ML (+150) ----- Small Potatoes (0.5u)
I said it in the preseason write up on Toledo and I'll say it again....I have a complete and total hard on for Toledo this year. I'm very pissed about the line movement, so I'm not getting a good number. But in the preseason I thought Toledo would beat either Mizzou or Cincy, and thought their better shot would be Mizzou. So I'm gonna stay with the gut here. Last year mizzou was a lot better than Toledo, and Toledo got off to a slow start, Terrence Owens played poorly (costly turnovers including 1 in the red zone to end 1st half), and they still played well with mizzou on the road (although the final score may not look like it). This year I LOVED what I saw from Toledo in week 1. I don't put much stock in week 1 games, but Toledo did route one of the top FCS schools after a slow start. My 1 question on this team is Phillip Ely, and if he can play like he did week 1 then Toledo has every shot to win. Mizzou secondary can be had (it wasn't too good last year and I don't think it's much better this year), and Toledo has a loaded OL and one of the best RB's you never hear about in Hunt. The Rockets are loaded on defense with depth and experience, and mizzou is still replacing a lot of key players. I only worry about a slow start hurting the Rockets, and also they have lost 2 CB's for the year now who had good starting experience. Regardless, with the Rockets getting Mizzou early in the season at the Glass Bowl, I think they have a good shot to win straight up.


North Texas -2.5 ----- REG
I think UNT is still pretty decent ball club, And should still be a bowl team with their cake walk schedule. And I think SMU is a turd that is going down the toilet. Interesting/Motivation from UNT's starting QB who was recruited by SMU, but then they pulled his offer when they got Burcham to commit. Prob say he has some bad blood for the Mustangs now. Anyway, I could write a lot about this game, but I'll say that UNT is better and McCarthney has brought back a nice home field advantage to UNT....it's a tough place to play now a days, people.


Navy/Temple O 58.5 ----- Small Potatoes
I wanted to play Navy -3 bc I think there's a lot of overreaction for Temples win last week, but I'll stick with the over.




Akron +14 ----- Small Potatoes
The Zips are a competitive bunch, and may be a new favorite to win their division in the MAC with all the attrition BGSU is facing. Bottom line here, Penn St is the better team, but are coming off a VERY LONG road trip/travel. And this could be a bit of a let down spot for them. And Akron can be a scary team to sleep on. They should keep this within 2 TD's.


Michigan St +13 ----- REG (1.5u)
Sparty ML (+400) ----- Small Potatoes (0.5u)
I love defense. Defense wins championships. And this is a total play on that MSU has been game planning all offseason for this game, and Oregon does have troubles with teams that have time to prepare, and more importantly with physical grind out teams.I also think Conner Cook is a pretty dang good QB, and won't be surprised to see him come up with some big plays to complement the run game. . Basically this is a terrible match up IMO, and I'll take the veteran coaching staff on top of it. I think the loss of Nick Aliotti doesn't get enough talk either, I think it's a big one. MSU has a lot of big game experience, also, much more than the Ducks do, which can come into play if this game makes it into the 4th qtr, which I fully expect it will. I could go on and on about this match up.


BYU/Tex U 46 ----- Small Potatoes
This seems like an obvious play IMO.....so obvious that I'm only going small on it (and bc I suck at Totals). I just can't see any team getting over 20pts really. Texas barely has enough players on offense to trot on the field now it seems, and BYU defense is no slouch. The only way I can see this going over is if Texas defense decides to turn back the clocks to last year and let BYU run circles around them. But I'd like to think they have enough pride, and charlie strong is a good enough coach, to not let that happen.


Va Tech +12 ----- REG (1.5u)
Hokies ML ----- Small Potatoes (0.5u)
I'm obviously high on VT, as I have a future on them. Big reason is Michael Brewer, maybe he can show me something this game. I don't know if he needs to do much though in this game for me to cover. I don't see many pts being scored. I really like VT defense against OSU here. I love Bud Foster, and will be shocked if he doesn't load up the box and have JT Barrett try to beat them.....which Foster can do bc he has prob the best CB duo in the nation on his team. I also like VT front 7 against OSU's young DL. I am interested to see how VT and their young RB's fair against the buckeyes. I won't expect too much, and overall I expect a tight, low scoring game. Could come down to a turnover to win/lose the game.


ML Parlay:
K-State, Kentucky, Maryland, ULM, S Carolina (+133)
K-State game should be closer than people expect & I think ISU will cover, but KSU should win.





I also like Eastern Washington and Towson in the FCS, but I have enough on my card as is.
If the CSU/Boise spread gets back up to +10 then I'll throw a little on the Rams



Good Luck tomorrow fellas (and ladies). I hope it's a profitable one for everyone. :cheers3:

 

[HUNT]

gl hammer

 

[HammersSpreads]

Wow. Pretty sure that Stanford game makes up for that Tulsa win last week. I couldn't have called that game any better. Brutal!!!