Week 2 Early Discussion

[B.A.R.]

Alright gentleman(and ladies as well), week one of the season has been dissected every which way here. One of my fundamentals of capping is the lookahead. I believe its very important. RJ has started a thread that I will keep bumping up near this one that has an early look at good spots.

I kinda broke this down last night and want to get everybodies thoughts.

First, lets look ahead to WEEK 3. This is very important in handicapping. The next opponenet can well determine the previous week's outcome.

Week 3 big games/rivalry games

-Iowa St @ Iowa
-Florida @ Tennessee
-Michigan @ Notre Dame
-Oklahoma @ Oregon
-Miami(fl) @ Louisville
-Nebraska @ USC
-LSU @ Auburn
-Clemson @ Florida St

Now, for week 2 games..lets look at revenge situations...teams prior year score in parentheses

Revenge Games

-Clemson (13) @ Boston College (16) OT
-W. Michigan (23) vs Toledo (56)
-Ohio St (22) @ Texas (24)
-Fresno (34) vs Oregon (37)
-Rutgers (30) vs Illinois (33) OT

Now, here are a few games off my head that I think will be interesting and may hold value.

-Iowa @ Syracuse
-Tulane @ Houston
-Minnesota @ Cal
-Oregon @ Fresno



Now, if I missed something, please feel free add in. Obviously week one results have a big impact but lets spend the next few days getting familiar with these matchups and go from there.

 

[TroyStacks]

AU- anything from -17 or better

Purdue- -14 or better

PSU/ND- Under if that line is right...thinking it will be around 49.5 area???

TAMU- -24 or better

CSU- dogs of any number...look at recent history on this matchup

VT- 7-2 ATS v. ACC on the road

Clemson- if they are a dog...5-0 ATS v. ACC as a dog

Nevada- looking for 2TDs...Keller is gone, how fast can #2 step in and play

Oregon- less than -10 and I will look hard

AZ- I'd love to see as a dog of 20+

USF- -14 or less

ISU- -7 or better

AFA- will most liely play if I can catch +8 or more

Houston- -13 or better

ECU- under a TD I'd like

Arkansas- -14 or better

N.Illinois- want as favs of under 2TDs

Toledo- 9-2 ATS v. MAC Michigan schools

Michigan- Looking for favs of -24 or better...9-2 ATS v. B10 CMU is

Kent St.- Most likely a play as a dog of any

 

[TroyStacks]

for reference i posted this in here so i can look at yours as well.

 

[B.A.R.]

No problem bro

 

[B.A.R.]

Here's some early line thoughts on some of these..not my own numbers...but an assortment of rankings...please share your own

 

[B.A.R.]

Rutgers -7.5

Michigan -28

Purdue -16

Clemson -2

Irish -10.5

LSU -12.5

Tenn -18

Cal -11

UGA -1.5

Oregon -3

 

[B.A.R.]

Horn and RJ..cream your pants baby...Jump get the shotgun out

I think UT should be about a 6 point favorite. I have looked at many numbers but I am making a personal line for this as 6. I truly believe in that. Venue, young defense and a great defense at home.

 

[HUNT]

6??

bro...you know how I feel about UT...you will see.

 

[B.A.R.]

Yup...6....its a bit high..for a big game...but I feel that they have a 4 point home edge and they should be slightly favored at the Shoe. Now, if this game was in late OCT...then its closer to PK...

 

[SoonerBS]

Horn and RJ..cream your pants baby...Jump get the shotgun out

I think UT should be about a 6 point favorite. I have looked at many numbers but I am making a personal line for this as 6. I truly believe in that. Venue, young defense and a great defense at home.

I agree here. :cheers:

 

[HUNT]

I will reserve judgment until I see OSU next week.

 

[HUNT]

I am a believer that QB play is huge...will UT's new QB step up? My belief is no.

 

[B.A.R.]

I think there is enough around him to make him comfy. Remember how well Chad had it year one.

UT has the speed to corral Smith somewhat.

The biggest thing is young defense.

You are right though, things can change by next Sat evening.

 

[HUNT]

yeah...lean right now is OSU...but that may change.

 

[B.A.R.]

This is classic QB vs Young defense.

I rate defense just slightly..and I mean..slightly higher than QB. Now, a nw QB on road..new story.

Texas defense is much better than OSU at this point of season. Offenses, OSU, maybe slight edge

Homecrowd, and a damn good UT defdense get it done.

Teddy Ginn will bust this year with no Santonio IMO to stretch field.

 

[HUNT]

gonzalez is pretty damn good too.

 

[B.A.R.]

Yes he is...but he's no Sanatonio..he is good,..but I don't think that Teddy will be as exploisive as people think..we'll see

The guy is great...but its not gonna be as easy IMO

 

[TroyStacks]

Clemson looks like a great pick no matter the line IMO. I do not take look ahead games to seriously as I think its a bullshit excuse why a team loses. Every coach in college understands that even 1 loss can be disasterous in going to the NC. Clemson knows they have to win every ACC game in a conference stacked with talent with the likes of Miami, FSU, BC, etc. Expectations are high for them as well this year I think they have the right tools to win the conference and stay focused on every game. Too many weapong for Clemson and too much focus with eyes on the prize to let up anywhere. I'll take the better team here for 3 units more thank likely maybe 2 depending on the chalk.

Iowa game looks intriguing. I know a lot of dog players will love the orangemen this week as they will be dogs of atleast -24 IMO. Well if you think thats value you are completely wrong with the Iowa Hawkeyes. They are an amazing 16-2 ATS as a DD favorite. They simply beat the living shit out of teams that are less talented. No let downs in Iowa over the years. Give me Iowa for 1 unit no matter the spread.

Oregon/Fresno is a game I will play if and only if the spread is -10 or better for the ducks. Dixon and Stewart and the DL of Org will be too much for this first year starting QB and Fresno. I will take the Ducks at -10 or better for 1 unit.

I am eyeing the Cal game hard right now. You have a couple things going against Minnesota here. First lets talk defenses. Cal has a top 10 DL, a top 10 DB corps and a solid LB corps as well. What does Minnesota like to do with RB injuries/suspensions, and QB and WR talent? PASS PASS PASS. Adavntage Cal here at home. Offenses, Cal has a top QB,WR and a heisman candidate in Lynch. How is a mid grade B10 team defense stop this attack? They CAN'T! Problem #2 for Minnesota is the west coast flight they have to make. I take this as a bigger distraction/problem than sandwhich games or look ahead situations.Cal is the play for me in this one at home as a favorite of what i think will be -7.5/-8.5. If I can get this at a TD or less this will be a 5 units play.

Possible plays that may have some value:

Toledo may get undervalued in this matchup against WMU with Gradkowski gone. Maybe I'm off on this but leaning Toledo here so far.

CSU you have to look at. A new coach at Col in this case may give the Bufs an overvalued line in this situation given the success Hawkins had at Boise St. The dog in this series is something like 9-2 ATS so lets look at the Rams in this one. Klatt is gone and so is Bloom(I think thats his name). Yes Holland is gone as well but QB edge may goto CSU on this matchup. Just a lean as of now.

Nevada I think we can get a decent dog play here as Keller is gone and I am not sure of how fast Carpenter can pick up where Keller left off.Also think the 'psitol' formations will reak havoc on the poorous defense of ASU. Leaning wolfpack if the price is right.


This are the plays I am looking at as of now. Critique my picks and analysis as you will so we can get a solid week 2 beting parameters ready so we can pounce on some great lines come Sunday/Monday night.

 

[TroyStacks]

I hope your numbers are righ BAR b/c it looks tasty right now wow!!!!!!!!

 

[B.A.R.]

me too Troy

Carpenter will exceed Kellar and more. Just look at end of last season to tell yas that.

I like Clemosn at this point as well.

I like CSU as double digit doggie as well

Cal is one game depending on what happens at Neyland in wek one that I already have my eye on.

 

[TroyStacks]

well i know carpenter is good but still say he does great...that defense can't stop jack shit

 

[B.A.R.]

oh, we Rutgers backers from the bowl last year know all about that defense..lol

 

[TroyStacks]

haha hell yeah

 

[RJ Esq]

Horn and RJ..cream your pants baby...Jump get the shotgun out

I think UT should be about a 6 point favorite. I have looked at many numbers but I am making a personal line for this as 6. I truly believe in that. Venue, young defense and a great defense at home.

Line will be within a FG either way. Personally I agree with you. Edge to UT with more developed D and a damn good O. Not a 51 pt a game O, but a 38-42 ppg O. Better than most hope for.

I will be watching the NIU v. tOSU game (as well as the UT v UNT game) to see how they do against Wolfe. If they have trouble with Wolfe, god help them against UT. For the UT game, how do the QBs look and will Mack use a 2 QB system against tOSU. I don't think he will after past experiences.

 

[B.A.R.]

Totally agree that line will be lower than my projection. Thats why after watching week one I will hit UT most likely. The latest I saw was a 2 or 2.5 I think...anything under FG or at 3 I love AT THIS POINT.

 

[SoonerBS]

Good discussion here, guys!

 

[RJ Esq]

Scores and Odds Matchups

103 OREGON ST.
104 BOISE ST.NCAA FOOTBALL 9/8/2006

105 PITTSBURGH
106 CINCINNATINCAA FOOTBALL 9/9/2006

107 VIRGINIA TECH
108 N. CAROLINA

109 ILLINOIS
110 RUTGERS

111 AKRON
112 N. CAROLINA ST.

113 C. MICHIGAN
114 MICHIGAN

115 DUKE
116 WAKE FOREST

117 MISSISSIPPI
118 MISSOURI

119 AUBURN
120 MISSISSIPPI ST.

121 MIAMI-OHIO
122 PURDUE

123 LOUISVILLE
124 TEMPLE

125 KENT ST.
126 ARMY

127 VANDERBILT
128 ALABAMA

129 OHIO U.
130 NORTHERN ILL.

131 WYOMING
132 VIRGINIA

133 E. MICHIGAN
134 MICHIGAN ST.

135 RICE
136 UCLA

137 CLEMSON
138 BOSTON COLLEGE

139 IOWA
140 SYRACUSE

141 WASHINGTON
142 OKLAHOMA

143 PENN ST.
144 NOTRE DAME

145 TULSA
146 BRIGHAM YOUNG

147 COLORADO ST.
148 COLORADO

149 BUFFALO
150 BOWLING GREEN

151 C. FLORIDA
152 FLORIDA

153 STANFORD
154 SAN JOSE ST.

155 ARIZONA
156 LSU

157 INDIANA
158 BALL ST.

159 UTAH ST.
160 ARKANSAS

161 TOLEDO
162 WESTERN MICH

163 NEV. LAS VEGAS
164 IOWA ST.

165 AIR FORCE
166 TENNESSEE

167 IDAHO
168 WASHINGTON ST.

169 TULANE
170 HOUSTON

171 E. CAROLINA
172 UAB

173 MINNESOTA
174 CALIFORNIA

175 GEORGIA
176 S. CAROLINA

177 OHIO ST.
178 TEXAS

179 NEW MEXICO
180 NEW MEXICO ST.

181 TEXAS TECH
182 TEXAS EL-PASO

183 OREGON
184 FRESNO ST.

185 NEVADA-RENO
186 ARIZONA ST.

187 TROY STATE
188 FLORIDA ST.

189 FLA ATLANTIC
190 KANSAS ST.

191 MIDDLE TENN. ST.
192 MARYLAND

193 FLORIDA INT'L
194 SOUTH FLORIDA

195 OKLAHOMA ST.
196 ARKANSAS ST.

197 UL MONROE
198 KANSAS

199 UL LAFAYETTE
200 TEXAS A&M

201 SMU
202 N. Texas

 

[HUNT]

The NIU game will be a great barometer of how OSU is IMO....I still think Texas losing their BEST defensive player and their BEST offensive player is going to be a lot to overcome.

Texas will not be able to do play action fakes or have man-child 8 yards back in the shotgun to overlook the sets and do whatever. UT will be conservative for most of the first half IMO...Tressel isn't stupid..he knows the qb will be throwing the short pass and they will be running a lot..it is just a matter of OSU stopping the run. OSU will open the playbook from the get go on offense. People are also forgetting that Ginn is a threat everytime on special teams.

A close game like this might come down to the kicker...the most overlooked thing in all of capping IMO...UT has an advantage there.

you guys talk about revenge? shit? what about this game? OSU has that.

 

[B.A.R.]

They do Hunt...big time...but I look at the heart of that team..the LB's from last year...and the other lost defensive guys...its not a intact team coming back. I will give Troy Smith the angle though. He had to platoon..now this baby is his.

 

[smo1a]

For the OSU v Texas game, I'll be taking one for the team. Plan on a small play on OSU ML. Way I figure, I'll gladly lose cash for a Texas win! If my beloved horns break my heart and lose, at least I'll make some cash! That game can't get here soon enough!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:cheers:

 

[reNew Orleans]

if the line for tulane @ houston is -13... im definitely pounding that.

 

[B.A.R.]

pounding UH bro?

 

[reNew Orleans]

yea, UH not Tulane... we are horrible

 

[B.A.R.]

my fav play for week 2 as well

 

[reNew Orleans]

about all we have is Lester Ricard, QB, and Joseph Forte, RB. We lost all starting linebackers and 3/4 in secondary. 3 starting offensive lineman as well. Kolb should have a field day.

 

[B.A.R.]

hey bro...I am going to IM you on AOL tomorrow..want to talk to you about the game....

 

[reNew Orleans]

sounds good.

 

[B.A.R.]

:shake:

 

[GoBucksIndy]

The opening line with be OSU -2. I bet it will end up being a pickem by kickoff.