that seems to be his free play...
South Carolina (-9.5) 26 VANDERBILT 17
05:30 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Sep-04 - Stats Matchup
I expected South Carolina’s defense to be very good this season, but the Gamecocks’ stop unit was dominating in a 34-0 victory over NC State last Thursday. Steve Spurrier’s team allowed just 171 total yards at 3.2 yppl and the Gamecocks are especially tough to throw the ball against this season. Vanderbilt will have no chance of success throwing the ball, but quarterback Chris Nickson ran for 177 yards on 18 rushing plays last week in the Commodores’ impressive 34-13 upset win at Miami-Ohio. Nickson has run for 1107 yards on 191 career rushing plays and South Carolina may have some trouble containing him in this game, although he is not likely to have close to the success he had last week. I project just 3.9 yards per play for the Dores in this game, but Vandy’s defense is pretty solid and South Carolina had some problems offensively last week. Starting quarterback Tommy Beecher, throwing for just 106 yards on 22 attempts with 4 interceptions, but Chris Smelley came to the rescue by going 5 for 5 for 92 yards and 2 TD passes. Smelley looked like the better quarterback last season and should have been the starter to begin with. Smelley will be the starting quarterback this week and I rate him at 0.8 yards per pass play better than average. However, I rate the Vandy defense at 0.9 yppp better than average, so Smelley is unlikely to duplicate last week’s success. The Gamecocks should do a pretty good job of running the ball against a mediocre Vandy run defense and I project 5.4 yards per play for Spurrier’s offense in this game. Vanderbilt is only 4-12-1 ATS under coach Johnson the week after a victory, including 0-4 ATS last season, but South Carolina applies to a negative 52-94-4 ATS first road game situation. My ratings favor South Carolina by 9 points, but that’s a little close to the number to recommend either side strongly in this game.