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Week 2 CFB w/writeups.....

YesSir

Brian Windhorst
2005 Season

69-42-2 (62%)

2006 Season

17-9-1 (65%)

Ohio State OVER 10 wins (1-0)

What is up everyone? Man it is great to be back into football season.... Here are just some lines that I think jump out right away. I will have longer write-ups with each of these games as the week goes on. Just wanted to get some games down to do more research on...These plays are just early thoughts and leans....Thoughts and constructive criticism are welcomed:

Ohio State/Texas OVER 51 I have been waiting on this games total for awhile and love it. I think OSU can and will rack up around 30 on any team they play. With that being said, Texas still definately has the ability to score and to score quick. I look for Texas to take advantage of OSUs youth on defense and for OSU to use their speed (Gonzalez, Pittman, Ginn, Smith, Oneil, Mo Wells) to score on the offensive side of the ball. I see this game being a 38-28 or 38-35 type game. Momentum will be huge in this game and I expect several big plays.

NIU - 14 - I also wanted to see this games line right after the thrashing OSU gave NIU. Ohio beat Tennessee Martin 29-3 this past weakend. The offense only scored 14 points against this weak small school(safety and defensive TD led to 9 points). I like NIU to come out and dominate every facet of this game. I think they are being under-valued big time by the books because of the way OSU handled them. In reality they have a Top 3 back and a QB that lead the nation in completion percentage a year ago. Before looking more into Ohio, I look for this game to get real ugly real quick!

Akron + 10 Akron took it on the chin last week BUT they did impress me. Even though they got down early, they stayed composed and stayed in the game. NC State needed the whole game to handle the Appalachian Mountaineers 23-10. NC State only amassed 242 yards of offense against this team! I think Akron, behind Luke Getsky (1 of the most undervalued NFL type QB around IMO), has a shot to win this game SU.

CAL - 8.5 CAL comes off a game in which they were dominated by Tennessee. All factors were against them and I played Tenn. The way they were dominated, I did not really predict though. It seemed as if 1 thing went wrong and then it snow balled (which usually happens to a team that is not used to playing in that type of environment). Like NIU, I think they are being undervalued. They get to return home and play a Minnesota team that is not that good IMO. Yes Minnesota beat up on Kent BUT I was at the game and it definately could have been a lot closer. A couple mistakes made a potential 17-10 halftime game 17-0. From my perspective, Kent played even with them in the first half! The factors going against CAL last week are going in their favor this week. Minnesota must travel across the country to play a good team. I stated before that I thought CAL would lose week 1 and then run the table- not sure if that will happen but I expect them to get up in the Gophers.

Rutgers Illinois thoughts ( line Rutgers -12.5 Total 49) - Just kind of throwing this out their because of some stats. Rutgers gave up 402 yards to a Carolina team that is supposed to struggle. 169 of those yards were on the ground. Ilinois rushed for 345 yards for over 7 yards a carry. Rutgers rushed or 5.3 yards a carry and Raymell Rice had 201 yards on the ground! Illinois is supposed to have a weak defense and Rutgers should have a good offense this year. At first look the over looks tasty...

Clemson - 1.5 BC does not really exhibit the best home field advantage - not a huge fan base. Clemson finished the year with 4 wins(including FSU and a bowl win). Last week they started where they left off a season ago crushing FAU. BC snuck by a Central Michigan team- they were pretty close to even in yards and got out rushed by CMU. I think Clemson's run to the ACC championship will start with a victory in Bean town....


Thats all I have right now....thoughts will help....Thanks:cheers:
 
I like the clemson game even with there leading tackler going down for the year, BC showed me that they arent ready for this season letting CMU come back on them, either that or they were shaving points. If you still considering the UGA from another thread Id tell you to check out abcs thread for week 2 for some more infro, and i know ill be taking that game
 
YesSir - Liking your card for Week 2. With you on Clemson big time. :cheers:

I'm going to look into Cal some more...the only thing keeping me from pulling the trigger is how bad the QB play looked last week. Then again, it was against the Volunteers, at Tennessee. That's a tall order for any offense.

Also leaning heavily to Akron. Getsky impressed me quite a bit in the bowl game last year.

GL to you this weekend. :shake:
 
Thanks all

I think CAL will have a huge game this week. The was the first line that I wanted to see on Sunday. I think this could be a 20 point game....

adding:


Kent State + 6 - I am kind of using a writeup I already had for a different game- Michael Machen is Kent's starting QB. He returns after an up and down year. He has talent (was at Alabama for a year before he decided to play minor league baseball) and can be a viable QB. He is athletic and has size (6'6" 235). The Golden Flashes have two sub 4.4 backs (Sophomore Tony Howard and Freshman Eugene Jarvis). These speedy backs, along with 4 returning WRs should cause all types of problems for this Army defense. Army comes into this game after getting beat by a 1AA school. And I can already hear people saying well ASU is not a bad team, they have not lost a home game in.... Guys they are a 1AA school bottom line. Army's QB, the only one that played, only threw for 92 yards! They only had 69 yards on the ground and their leading rusher had 35! BOTTOM LINE: People point to the Kent game against Minnesota and say "look how they got handled". I was at the game and Kent played this Big 10 team even for the first half. The score at half time was 17-0 but could have easily have been 17-10 (Kent dropped(fumbled) a TD through the end zone and missed a 20 yard FG). I think Kent will come out and dominate every facet of the game. Kent is the play here.

Oregon State - 8. I like this play a lot when it first came out and Horn's writeup made me lock it in. I think the biggest info with both of these teams is that they both return many players. But the big thing is that OSU is the Pac 10 returning players that have played in big environments(not saying this will be one) and know what it takes to beat a good team.

Pitt/ Cinci UNDER 45 Though I ultimately think put should cover this spread, I am not to confident laying 8 on the road. This is a night game and a national televised game so the crowd should be drunk and ready to party. With that being said, I think this total is very high for these teams. Both teams have decent defenses that can control these opposing offenses. The nati's offense is pretty bad. Their line is terrible (40 sacks and only 3.2 per carry last year). If you have a bad line that can't run block you would think pass right? Well the weakest part of their O is their WR. Pitt's offense pretty similar at skill positions as Cinci's. Bottom Line: Both teams exhibit decent defenses. Neither offense has the speed for big plays. I look for both teams to try and control the clock and move the ball at their normal slow pace.

Wake Forest - 19 OK I know Wake did not look all that impressive against Syracuse last week and their starting QB will not play. This play is more about Duke than it is about Wake. Duke got shut out last week. Yeah I know, who cares it is nothing new.....and oh yeah it was against a D2 school. Bottom Line: Duke is terrible. They put up 210 yards against Richmond. Wake gets to play in front of their home crowd and should look to make up for last week.

OK State -13.5 (hook) I am tired of being repetitive in these write ups but Arkansas State is a D2 school. This is not a home game for either team as they will both travel. I look for this game to get ugly- AKS backers or fans please write something to support your team here. I know about the home streak but like I said this is away from home. Someone made a good point (Sooners I believe) that OK State will probably have more traveling fans than AKS.

Va. Tech. - 12.5 Not much to say about this game. I just saw how Rutgers beat UNC and I expect V-Tech to do much of the same. A power ranking a saw had this game at a -26. Trend people....VTECH is 16-6 in their last 22 as a favorite ATS and 8-1 ATS on the road in their last 9.

TEASERS:

OSU + 8 Iowa - 13

Rutgers - 5 Texas Tech -1

LSU - 9 Colorado + 8



OHIO STATE:

I originally believed that Texas would win this game. Now I really do not feel like getting into a huge debate because I just want to relax and watch the game. Like I said I either thought it would be a coin toss or Texas in a close one. Now I have completely changed my mind and now expect OSU to win 38-17
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OSU did not show anything against NIU. With that being said they did get a competitive game under their belts. They got to play an "elite"(and I will use that word softly) MAC team with a start player. Texas comes into this game after thrashing a Pee Wee team. I think the OSU game will have them better prepared for this game. There is all this talk about how OSU has 9 new starters on defense. Well in reality many of these young guys have some type of game experience. Malcom Jenkins has played in Nickel packages. James Laurinaitis played some as a true freshman last year. Lawrence Wilson is an NFL talent that started the Fiesta Bowl last year. Kerr was Freshmen Defensive Player of the Year in the Big 10 at Indiana. There are more but you get the point. Yes these guys are young but they do have experience.

OSU did not show anything special against NIU. They lined up in basic sets and either ran the ball up the middle or throw to receivers running basic routes. Troy Smith only ran one time and that was on an option. Against Texas I look to see Smith getting out of the pocket on a regular basis. OSU will line up with 4 wide (Probably Ginn, Gonzalez, Hall, and Hartline) and throw one of the Wells or Pittman in the backfield. How is Texas going to defend this set on 3rd in short or 1st and 10? With their best DB out(at least as of now), they will not be able to defend it. With 3 good backs, (power back in Chris Wells and speed backs in MO and Antonio Pittman) 3 track star receivers (Gonzalez, Ginn and Gonzalez) and a possession guy in Roy Hall(if healthy) - What can Texas do? And oh yeah they have a Top 3 QB in Troy Smith also. He will be hiding behind a Top 10 line.

At OSUs pace this will be a track meet and The Ohio State University will put a 40 spot up in Austin.

Also, I think it is very odd that the line opened at 2.5? Anyone else think this is a little weird? It seems like the book is begging you to take Texas..
 
FINAL CARD ( might add some totals)

OSU/Texas OVER 51

NIU -13.5 (hook)

Akron + 10 (hook)

CAL -8.5

Clemson -1.5

Kent + 6

Oregon State + 8 ****

Pitt/ Cinci UNDER 45

Wake - 19

OK State - 13.5 (hook)

Va Tech - 12.5

OSU + 8 Iowa - 13

Rutgers - 5 Texas Tech -1

LSU - 9 Colorado + 8


BOL AND THANKS TO EVERYONE FOR THEIR INSIGHTS
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like that write-up on Kent; thanks for letting me know you were doing it.

looks like a pretty good card. GL
 
YesSir, you know I love your card because I'm on several of these myself! I jumped on the Texas/Ohio State OVER whenever it first came out and was able to get a 49. But, I think 51 will be just as good.

Good luck to us and thanks for taking the time to post your write-ups!
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RedBeard- No Problem bro BOL to you this week

absc- I just jumped on there and you werent....

mvp13- thanks bro...BOL to you

Sooners- Yeah those original 5 I booked right away. By the time I got to the lines that OSU total was at 51. I had no idea it opened that low. BOL to you and us this weekend
 
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