Week 2 B1G thread

HUNT

HUNT

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Okay..a little recap from what I saw...Watched 90%-100% of snaps of TOSU, Nebraska, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin. I'll take questions. Please post shit you saw from other squads. I'm not a big writer, but do the best I can. My brain moves too fast and can't type thoughts that great like a lot of people on here like BAR and VK, etc.

Anyways..step the fuck in...whatever...it is what it is with my shit.

Wisconsin vs USF....Wisconsin looked big, they looked fast and Coan was fine. Is USF a pile of streaming dog shit or is Wisconsin that good? I think it's a mixture of both..that kid at QB for USF should have been yanked early 3rd. Not sure why they left him in, but I guess that's why Charlie gets paid the big bucks and we don't. Wisconsin did whatever they wanted on both sides of the ball and had good special teams. They looked the best out of all of the big ten teams this weekend by a mile.

Michigan State vs Tulsa...MSU defense is fierce, very fierce. They are solid on special teams as well...good punter and good punt blocking unit. The gunners get down the field fast....this is big because...the offense just isn't very creative or very good. Lewerke had his moments but the oline and playcalling haven't changed much. At least in week 1.

Nebraska vs Bama JV squad. The oline looked very shaky for Nebraska, but I was most surprised by Martinez bad decision making and poor reads. Defense had it's moments but gave up quite a few big plays. Frost seemed perplexed by his team all game. Just not what I expected at all.

Bucks vs. Lane....Bucks had an amazing first quarter, then a shit second quarter offensively. Not sure what happened. I like the defense. I like Fields. The wrs will get better. The oline was fine, Dobbins was ok....I dunno wtf happened in the second quarter to be honest. They seemed to have just gave up. FAU made some adjustments and got some plays on the bucks in second half but I personally think Bucks will be fine. Just a weird game after the dominant FQ.


Michigan vs. Tennessee JV squad. Michigan debuted the new look offense and to me it was a mixture of Moorhead PSU offenses and Nebraska. No huddled whole game but snaps were off mostly in the 13-15 second range..some were in the 15-20 second range. Patterson is adept at RPO but gave the ball to the other team a few times. He didn't seem comfortable consistently. OLine was OK. Shea needs all day to make reads and throws so the Oline has to be above average...he's just not the type to get rid of the ball very quick..sometimes on slants he does but he's a scanner of the field kind of dude. Inconsistent with pocket awareness. Defense interior will be gashed by good run teams. Michigan still likes to give up the big play and had some very confusing clock management issues in the last two minutes of half AGAIN. Harbaugh just sucks at managing clock..no idea why. They also did some dumb packages with Mccafferey and Shea in at same time..about 10 plays I think..and one caused a delay of game because neither of them knew who was supposed to line up behind center. Hopefully this ends. Very good kicker and solid Punter.

Onto this week....

Bucks vs. Cinci...I think Cinci is pretty good, but bucks win. Day had to be looking ahead. I dunno. Not exactly sure what to expect to be honest.

Army vs Michigan...Army didn't look good week 1 defensively from the bits and pieces I watched. I know Michigan has been prepping for them since January because of their style of play and then they have a bye before Wisconsin game. Interesting game..I was all ready to take Army +17.5 but BAR told me not to. Glad I didn't and now it's 23.5

Rutgers vs Iowa...this is one you guys will have to chime in on.

Cuse vs Maryland...Maryland put up 79 on a d2 school..Cuse is in top 25...no feel for this one...

Vandy vs Purdue....no clue

CMU vs Wisconsin....Prolly 65-0 wisky.

Nebraska vs Colorado...Nebraksa better get shit figured out quick because Shenault and Montez are solid.

Illinois vs. UCONN...Brandon Peters eh? UCONN is pretty bad...

Eastern Illinois vs. Indiana...do we really give a shit?

Buffalo vs PSU...didn't watch PSU at all.

Western Michigan vs, Michigan State...much of the same as week 1 for MSU. Western qb won't go 20-25 and 370 in this one.

Minnesota vs Fresno...no clue.

Fun fact...The highest ticket price out of this weeks games NEBRASKA vs COLORADO. Lowest ticket is $233.00. That's the B1G game of the week folks.

-Hunt
 
Did a little research here that may or may not matter since UM is a drastically different offensive style than they ever had but UM is going to cover -23 unless you feel Army's defense is going to limit and keep the Wolverine offense in the high 20s/low 30s. If we say the floor is say 34, you're asking Army to get a few scores and here are how many passing yards the opposing team had that day and how many points the offense (no special teams/D points accounted) scored (solely September non-conference games under Harbaugh)

2015
Utah - 203 / 24
Oregon State - 79 / 7
UNLV - 155 / 7
BYU - 55 / 0

2016
Hawaii - 151 / 3
UCF - 56 / 14 (two major TD runs was it)
Colorado - 261 / 28

2017
Florida - 181 / 10 (defensive TD as well)
Cincinnati - 132 / 14
Air Force - 64 / 13 (they were 1-9 passing for a 64 yd TD that day)

2018
Notre Dame - 249 / 24
Western Michigan - 85 / 3
SMU - 209/20

2019
MTSU - 234 / 21

The point of this was to say that Michigan tends to be a little less stout defensively if you have a QB or team that can be ok at passing the ball, especially if that QB has some mobility because even though Michigan has great athletes at times on the field, they get a little out of position and miss some tackles when QBs are threats to pass and then take off running. When teams come in and they want win by establishing the run and don't really have a passing offense, Michigan has historically ate those teams up.

There are some injury things I want to see a little more before I pull the trigger (namely Patterson, People-Jones, and Runyan) but under 24 to me is good value. I know Army's probably better defensively than what the Blue Raiders were but Michigan also really struggled with timing and rhythm both play calling and on the field so I think they're a mortal lock to get at least 34-35 points and like I alluded to, not sure Army's getting into double digits in this one.
 
Few guys will be held out till Wisconsin game. Mich has a bye in week 3 this year.
 
AliShaheed said:
Didn't see mich at all but army was absolutely putrid. Was looking forward all offseason to playing them here but I may now be permanently scared off.
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I have Mich locked in at 18.5 last week. Now, with that being said... I could possibly could buy out some or all. I've loved the spot for Mich for awhile now but will reevaluate.
 
That Wisconsin game could have been completely different if South Florida WRs didn't drop 20+ yard passes on its first two drives. They weren't hard catches, the drops quieted the crowd, and caused the QB to loose any confidence.

Wisconsin is going to be going down field a lot more often this season to open things up. Coan actually has an arm to make the throws and the WR group is one of the best I can remember with Cephus coming back after being found not guilty of rape.

They're going to try to put up video game numbers with JT to keep him in the Heisman convo. Hunt had the right idea in week 1 with the TD prop. I read after the fact that Taylor made a huge effort this off season to improve his receiving skills and he wants to showcase that for NFL teams. It might be a mistake to take rushing over props with a few less runs, and likely 30+ yards receiving intending to be mixed in.
 
I have same assessment of Nebraska in another thread. The poor angles Neb. defenders took was almost as if they didn't want to tackle. Nebraska offense lost the battle at the LOS. Most of all as you mentioned, Frost looked puzzled.
 
Iowa All Big Ten LT Alaric Jackson injured, will miss several weeks. Wirfs flipped from RT to LT.

Epenesa faced constant double teams and RB/TE attention. While he was credited with just 1 assisted tkl, he had a large impact drawing so many blockers his way. He played virtually the entire game only coming out for the final possession I think.
 
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i thought the defense played decently. Biggest issue last year was run defense and south bama ran 44 times for 83 yards, so you can't complain about that. they missed a couple of tackles early, but as the game went on i thought they tackled fine. TD drives they gave up were 9 plays-41 yds, 3 plays-13 yds, and 6 plays-58 yds so it was mostly the offense putting them in a bad position. Dismuke at safety is questionable in coverage, which is my biggest concern. Williams, the other safety, got hurt in the 2q and the backup Eric Lee played the game of his life with a pick 6 and another INT. They're still a little slow at LB, though they looked better there once Jojo Domann came in. He probably works his way into being a starter at OLB, but he wasn't healthy most of fall camp.

I tend to want to give them a pass on offense, because other than the Michigan game last year, they never looked like that on offense last year. I had said that Center was the biggest issue and that proved correct. Jurgens was terrible snapping the ball and it's really hard to run the ball out of the shotgun when the timing is thrown off on nearly every play by shitty snaps. I don't think they really ran their real offense on Saturday. Basically 1 RPO which went for a huge gain to the TE. Martinez missed a couple of easy throws, one of which is an easy TD if he hits it. One game is a fluke, if it happens on Saturday again, then this season is fucked.
 
(Blindly?) hoping that Sparty O played vanilla against Tulsa and that the offense is actually not the same unwatchable mess that it was last year. Kevin Jarvis is NOT a left tackle (literally, he‘s a guard). He was a mess in his first attempt at the position...penalties, sloppy technique. Really need Chewins to stay healthy there. But the o-line in general looked weak, got little push and Lewerke was often very inaccurate.
 
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cubsker said:
i thought the defense played decently. Biggest issue last year was run defense and south bama ran 44 times for 83 yards, so you can't complain about that. they missed a couple of tackles early, but as the game went on i thought they tackled fine. TD drives they gave up were 9 plays-41 yds, 3 plays-13 yds, and 6 plays-58 yds so it was mostly the offense putting them in a bad position. Dismuke at safety is questionable in coverage, which is my biggest concern. Williams, the other safety, got hurt in the 2q and the backup Eric Lee played the game of his life with a pick 6 and another INT. They're still a little slow at LB, though they looked better there once Jojo Domann came in. He probably works his way into being a starter at OLB, but he wasn't healthy most of fall camp.

I tend to want to give them a pass on offense, because other than the Michigan game last year, they never looked like that on offense last year. I had said that Center was the biggest issue and that proved correct. Jurgens was terrible snapping the ball and it's really hard to run the ball out of the shotgun when the timing is thrown off on nearly every play by shitty snaps. I don't think they really ran their real offense on Saturday. Basically 1 RPO which went for a huge gain to the TE. Martinez missed a couple of easy throws, one of which is an easy TD if he hits it. One game is a fluke, if it happens on Saturday again, then this season is fucked.
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Huskers scored on a pic 6 and a punt return for 14 of Nebraska 35pts. They won by 14. I saw a bad team with a bad QB
 
KobeJames823 said:
Did a little research here that may or may not matter since UM is a drastically different offensive style than they ever had but UM is going to cover -23 unless you feel Army's defense is going to limit and keep the Wolverine offense in the high 20s/low 30s. If we say the floor is say 34, you're asking Army to get a few scores and here are how many passing yards the opposing team had that day and how many points the offense (no special teams/D points accounted) scored (solely September non-conference games under Harbaugh)

2015
Utah - 203 / 24
Oregon State - 79 / 7
UNLV - 155 / 7
BYU - 55 / 0

2016
Hawaii - 151 / 3
UCF - 56 / 14 (two major TD runs was it)
Colorado - 261 / 28

2017
Florida - 181 / 10 (defensive TD as well)
Cincinnati - 132 / 14
Air Force - 64 / 13 (they were 1-9 passing for a 64 yd TD that day)

2018
Notre Dame - 249 / 24
Western Michigan - 85 / 3
SMU - 209/20

2019
MTSU - 234 / 21

The point of this was to say that Michigan tends to be a little less stout defensively if you have a QB or team that can be ok at passing the ball, especially if that QB has some mobility because even though Michigan has great athletes at times on the field, they get a little out of position and miss some tackles when QBs are threats to pass and then take off running. When teams come in and they want win by establishing the run and don't really have a passing offense, Michigan has historically ate those teams up.

There are some injury things I want to see a little more before I pull the trigger (namely Patterson, People-Jones, and Runyan) but under 24 to me is good value. I know Army's probably better defensively than what the Blue Raiders were but Michigan also really struggled with timing and rhythm both play calling and on the field so I think they're a mortal lock to get at least 34-35 points and like I alluded to, not sure Army's getting into double digits in this one.
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This is good shit. Thanks man.
 
Watched the entire Bucks game.
Thought I had the Bucks TT in after the first quarter. Seems like Day was trying not to embarrass Lane. Or maybe he’s holding something back. FAU lost their RB for the game too.
 
wiseplayer said:
Huskers scored on a pic 6 and a punt return for 14 of Nebraska 35pts. They won by 14. I saw a bad team with a bad QB
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Add in the fumble recovery for a TD for 21 of the 35 points not scored by the offense! While I think it is alarming that Nebraska O-Line could not line up and push the Jags around, the offense was as vanilla as it could be.

Frost has had this game circled for a year when Martinez took that cheap shot that set him back for most of last year. I expect we will know exactly who Nebraska is this week, if we see more of the same, which leads to a disappointing loss, this team might be headed for 5-7 or 6-6, however, the value of playing against the Huskers has already taken a 5 point hit in the market.
 
I think PSU‘s result may repeat itself. We saw last year repeatedly that peanut head loves to bully the weak. 51-6 vs Pitt, 63-10 vs Kent, 63-24 vs Illinois. Blowout after blowout (and this was with a very young defense taking advantage of the redshirt rule).
 
Indiana K Logan Justus set new career high long FGs 3x at Lucas Oil. With some questionable 2018 range, Justus was 4-7 beyond 40 last year (0-1 50+). Vs Ball St he was good from 48, 49 and 50, plus a 30 yarder thrown in.
 
I still have AM as my #2 QB in B1G. He will be fine. I think it was an uncharacteristic performance from him and the whole team..jmo. Huge look ahead too.
 
Thoughts on the teams I actually watched play:

Ohio State: Looked like world beaters in the first quarter, but I'm not sold on that defense. Far less than I was heading into the game. FAU made some adjustments on offense after the first quarter and OSU did not have much of an answer for them. There were open guys on nearly every passing play FAU ran. Just one game but this might be an exploitable secondary. Of course, I had a large play on OSU, backed largely because I didn't think FAU would be able to do anything on offense, so maybe that's just bitterness talking. I really want to take the 17 with Cincy but think I'll pass.

Michigan: Similarly unimpressed. I wasn't nearly as high coming into the season as many and nothing I saw Saturday changed my mind. That said, it'd be Michigan or pass for me this week, and I'll likely pass.

Rutgers: Laid the points here and naturally was smacking myself for doing so when it was 14-0 early. Liked the way they responded, and they do have some legit skill players. The +20.5 is pretty tempting this weekend and will be considering as the week moved on. They do have the ability to score with big plays.

Wisconsin: Offense looked better than I expected. Taylor is a true talent. There were some blown coverages in the secondary that got bailed out by dropped passes, as Fondy noted above. Offensive line looked albeit against a soft defense. Defensive front was light years ahead of last year's injury-ravaged unit. Should stream roll Central Michigan.

Nebraska: Similar to Michigan, very unimpressed but may end up backing this weekend. If they lose here I'm not sure they make a bowl game.

Illinois: I never thought I'd live in a world where I would be considering laying 20 on the road with the Illinois football team... but here we are. They could have put up a lot more points had they wanted to, and appeared to be significantly improved on offense compared to the clown shows from recent seasons.

Indiana: This is a team I have my eye on for possible play-ons when getting points this season. I also have a similar feeling about Ball State, so I stayed off this one and game played out about how I expected. Will continue to eye this team moving forward but not a team I want to lay points with so won't be involved this week against EIU.

Northwestern: Small play on +6.5 last week was a brutal, brutal beat. I thought Green was much more impressive at QB than the Clemson transfer and now I'm reading he may be out for the season. Looked solid on D but just lost on offense.
 
cubsker said:
You're basing this on what?

You can judge martinez on Saturday or on the 10.5 games he played last year and a coach who coached Mariota and milton who raves about him. I already said we're fucked if we see a repeat vs Colorado. I dont expect to.
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I just saw a lot of bad. Often times I'll watch plays in slow motion if something doesn't look right. Usually you see this stuff in the smaller conferences but I saw Nebraska DBs and sometimes LBs who preferred to take bad angles to make a tackle, which tells me they dont like tackling. Probably a good reason why they were so poor vs the run last year.
The other thing very noticable that I saw and Hunt mentioned was Frosts puzzled look. Martinez decision making is very questionable. Dont recall the name for #1 but if he doesn't stay healthy, I didn't see a lot of threats. Appreciate the discussion cub.
 
wiseplayer said:
I'm only go off of 1 game. Is there another game they played in 2019 that I'm not aware of?
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It's a small sample size. AM is not a freshman. Not sure why you would overlook every game he played until now. Like, you think he can't do well against a South Alabama defense?
 
VirginiaCavs said:
It's a small sample size. AM is not a freshman. Not sure why you would overlook every game he played until now. Like, you think he can't do well against a South Alabama defense?
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You sound confusing to me. I'm going off of what I saw this week. I'm looking for improvement from last year. I see none. IMO, this Nebraska team is garbage. If you want to crown them, then crown their ass. I could care less.
 
wiseplayer said:
You sound confusing to me. I'm going off of what I saw this week. I'm looking for improvement from last year. I see none. IMO, this Nebraska team is garbage. If you want to crown them, then crown their ass. I could care less.
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Its
One
Game

Where they were quite possibly looking ahead. Jesus, go base all your week 2 plays off what happened in week 1 because there‘s only ever continuity!
 
This literally changes all the time even within games. Like Florida off its win over LSU falling behind 21-3 to Vandy before waking up and playing like itself again. You can look as closely as you want but you‘re looking blindly if you don‘t account for these motivational scenarios let-down lookahead etc. We‘ll see what 2019 Nebby is next week. But outside of two games against top-notch Michigan defenses AM clearly showed a lot of promise as a frosh
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Its
One
Game

Where they were quite possibly looking ahead. Jesus, go base all your week 2 plays off what happened in week 1 because there‘s only ever continuity!
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Again, maybe there's confusion on what thread you're in. If you want to put an evaluation in from last year and talk patterns, why are you ignoring this putrid run defense Nebraska had? You're all over the board just to disagree. Yes, it's only week 1 but if you can recognize glaring issues that probably are going to be a season long problem, then you're probably better off. Nebraska sucks. Press on because I've wasted enough time replying. GL
 
wiseplayer said:
Again, maybe there's confusion on what thread you're in. If you want to put an evaluation in from last year and talk patterns, why are you ignoring this putrid run defense Nebraska had? You're all over the board just to disagree. Yes, it's only week 1 but if you can recognize glaring issues that probably are going to be a season long problem, then you're probably better off. Nebraska sucks. Press on because I've wasted enough time replying. GL
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Bad capping (overemphasizing week 1) isn't a requirement of this thread lol. Using last year for insight into week 1 I think is allowed, chief. Unbelievable lmao. Trying to help each other cap better, not constrain ourselves by imagined regulations.
 
wiseplayer said:
Again, maybe there's confusion on what thread you're in. If you want to put an evaluation in from last year and talk patterns, why are you ignoring this putrid run defense Nebraska had? You're all over the board just to disagree. Yes, it's only week 1 but if you can recognize glaring issues that probably are going to be a season long problem, then you're probably better off. Nebraska sucks. Press on because I've wasted enough time replying. GL
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Nebraska allowed 1.9 ypc in week 1. i think its run defense is amazing.
 
Regarding Martinez...one thing we will never know is if the hype might've effected him in some negative way, in terms of personal preperation or mentally that could detract from his game? Some players' growth isn't a straight line up, sometimes there is a sophomore slump. I personally would feel that he can be an improved player from last year, which most of the time was pretty good and assuming for further training and study and familiarity with the offense and how to execute - I would assume he could take a next step this season and be better. But there does exist a possiblity that a regression can occur and one could say the South Alabama game might be evidence of that. The South Alabama game was bad. Is he pressing to much, trying too hard, forcing for a big play? Frost isn't going to say any of that publicly. Even if Frost was really worried about what he saw and has concerns going forward, no way is he going to let onto that in a public setting - he's going to remain positive. The only way we will know for sure is to get more evidence. At any rate, it's not real helpful for anyone to ignore one possibility and only see the other possibility. Two people, several people, aren't always going to come to the same conclusion after having seen the same thing.
 
People need to take into consideration Colorado has been circled for the big red for a year. That was a brutal loss and they want some payback. Major major look ahead. Just my two cents. We will see the real team this Saturday like cubsker stated..they are fucking or getting fucked for Saturday.
 
Illinois has playmakers but can they handle laying this number on the road? I want to back them but was hoping it would be closer to 14. I may wait for the TT again.
 
I see Wisconsin is currently a 35 point favorite at home against Central Michigan... This will be Jack Coan's first career home start, but sixth overall. South Florida game was obviously on road to start this year. He started the bowl game in NY, and four road games last year. So first career home start. This will also be his first game ever on turf (at Camp Randall). Doubt that effects anything I'll do, but questioning if I'm missing anything with that. Maybe nerves of being in front of fellow students?

I'll likely be on Badgers TT over of 42.5/43ish.
 
Fondybadger said:
I see Wisconsin is currently a 35 point favorite at home against Central Michigan... This will be Jack Coan's first career home start, but sixth overall. South Florida game was obviously on road to start this year. He started the bowl game in NY, and four road games last year. So first career home start. This will also be his first game ever on turf (at Camp Randall). Doubt that effects anything I'll do, but questioning if I'm missing anything with that. Maybe nerves of being in front of fellow students?
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Are you saying the point spread is too high or too low?
 
S. Bama is coming off a 3-9 season playing in the Sun Belt. If you can read stats properly, Nebraska played well here? They got outplayed and were +2 in turnovers.
 

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I can buy the argument to both sides of saying Martinez looked shaky in one game this year while contending with obviously not forget that we have far more games for several years to judge his play on. I tend to be far more concerned about the Nebraska passing defense than their offense because South Alabama started a sophomore making his first career start and he still completed 55% of his passes when there were several throws that a good or better or even more experienced QB would make. Considering how much better the QB will be on Saturday, I tend to lean Colorado because I didn't see anything from the Nebraska secondary either last year or Saturday that gives me pause they can play well and hold down a senior QB and a Biletnikoff watchlist WR in a true road game, even if it's not that tough of a place to play. I think the over (64) is a better play than the 3/4 number because I could totally see a late TD for either squad winning it even though the game was close all day.

Think if you're a teaser player though that getting Colorado up to 10 is one of the better plays of the day considering their offensive potential and how little I trust Nebraska to win a true road game by double digits at this point of the year.
 
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