Week 18 Discussion Thread

Looking back at college, I'd love to do a dissertation on the art of the draw

Didn't remotely know a thing about soccer in college. It's such a unique business decision, I'd have loved to do that bit
 
Zeke said:
Line in Buffalo seems awfully large to me. Last game of the season we often see big effort from teams with "nothing to play for", especially in a division game. If Buff is up say 20ish going into the 4th, do they slowly pull starters? Fuck if I know but seems reasonable. Backdoor cover could be wide open there.

I think NE line is too heavy also in a spot where they always seem to step on their dicks.
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I wasn't on the Bills ats last week because I thought it was an inflated line. Hit em 2ndh but got boned on game over. This week I think they are blowing the Jets out.

Allen coming off a bad passing game (and some unlucky bounces) I'd think they will look to get him on track early. He's surely chomping at the bit to come out and throw a couple td passes. Run game is finally clicking with Singletary, but I'd think early targets go to Knox/Diggs/Gabe.

Say they're up 20 & they pull starters late in the 3rd, they'll have Trubisky running the option & handing off to Moss, sprinkle in some McKenzie. If that's the situation it'll likely be vs a very tired defense so I would still like them to get late tds and cover all ats lines.

I think the Bills D dominates in this one. Could be a very rough day for Zach. If the Jets don't have Carter @rb for this game it's tough to count on the offense for much. Even though I assume Coleman comes back from extended covid, don't think it's enough. Bills have been generating pressure & the Jets o-line is decimated.



Totally looking at a Pats fade but then again I was the only dummy in the world who tried fading them lw so I might just wait until rd 1.
 
Interesting line seeing Baltimore favored by 5.5 now over Pittsburgh. There is some incentive for Baltimore to lose this one, as the winner ends up 2nd in the division. Aside from draft position, which could move as many as five spots, you're talking about the difference between playing at Indy and at Philly next season or instead playing at Houston and at Washington.
 
Who is going to pack it in early?

There's always a team or two that no shows in the final week. Who is it going to be? I generally look for a road team with a dead man walking coach or other locker room issues....
 
Marsski said:
Who is going to pack it in early?

There's always a team or two that no shows in the final week. Who is it going to be? I generally look for a road team with a dead man walking coach or other locker room issues....
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Only road teams that could legitimately have coaches on the out would be Chicago (but they showed last week), Jets and Seattle if they and Pete decide to go their separate ways.
 
KJ said:
Only road teams that could legitimately have coaches on the out would be Chicago (but they showed last week), Jets and Seattle if they and Pete decide to go their separate ways.
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Don’t like Chicago cuz Fields is gonna play. Jets are one to look at
 
Marsski said:
Don’t like Chicago cuz Fields is gonna play. Jets are one to look at
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Bears might run all day on Vikes, easy to fade Jets here if Bills remotely care but they really can't gain anything but momentum

Seattle could be in for an overhaul, won't be surprised if Russ is moved and Pete retires in the offseason
 
KJ said:
Bears might run all day on Vikes, easy to fade Jets here if Bills remotely care but they really can't gain anything but momentum

Seattle could be in for an overhaul, won't be surprised if Russ is moved and Pete retires in the offseason
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If I recall correctly, Buffalo has played its starters in the 1st half in previous final weeks.
 
wiseplayer said:
If I recall correctly, Buffalo has played its starters in the 1st half in previous final weeks.
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Remember it's a new unique season. One extra game now is kind of a bigger deal than it would be usually. We really don't know.
 
Gandolf said:
Interesting line seeing Baltimore favored by 5.5 now over Pittsburgh. There is some incentive for Baltimore to lose this one, as the winner ends up 2nd in the division. Aside from draft position, which could move as many as five spots, you're talking about the difference between playing at Indy and at Philly next season or instead playing at Houston and at Washington.
Click to expand...
Very interesting on the schedule aspect...
 
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Which is why it was completely predictable that Mike McCarthy, the worst successful coach in NFL history, will do it. McCarthy said Monday he plans to play his starters. NFL coaches, a rule of thumb: Whatever McCarthy does, do the opposite.

lancasteronline.com

Marcus Hayes: Eagles are crazy if they don't sit starters against the Dallas Cowboys, COVID outbreak or not

Jan. 5—As the Eagles prepare to host the Dallas Cowboys on Saturday night, Inquirer Sports columnists Marcus Hayes and Mike Sielski will debate four issues facing the Eagles, today through
lancasteronline.com lancasteronline.com
 
Been a good year so far, probably should tread lightly in week 18 with all the unknowns. But I do need 5 for Pick Club so let's take a look:

KC/Denv - Chiefs can maintain the #2 spot and have a small chance of finishing #1 with a win. Saturday game so they'll know nothing about their fate, would expect a full effort. First matchup was a low scoring KC's double digit win. Tough to lay double digits again. Under 45 looks like an OK play.

Dallas/Philly - Expecting Eagles to rest Hurts but Minshew is a better passing threat anyways. Also don't see McCarthy playing Dak more than a half to keep him fresh. Total is only 43.5, think it reflects that scenario, same with the line. Pass

Cinc/Cle - No Burrow, no Baker. Total is only 38. Browns -6 seems a little too much but as a exhibition game I'm not inclined to play.

GB/Det - Not sure if or how much we see Arod and Adams. Lions were not surprisingly whipped by Seattle on the road last week, would think they'd like to make their mark with a good effort against the #1 seed, even if it is only a shell. Again, too much not known to be worth a play.

Chi/Minn - This one could be a fun game, neither team with much to play for could put on a show. Fields back at QB, Vikings at full strength, indoor game. I like the chances of getting over 44. No idea who will win.

Wash/NYG - This one has no juice. Giants are a disaster, but they're at home. Washington -7 seems crazy even if the Gmen have given up. Total is low on merit. Pass

Indy/Jax - What a huge spread, -15.5. Jags are 31st in TOP, Indy is 4th. No Robinson for Jags. Colts are in win and in mode. But the Jags have been a thorn in Indy's side the last few years, including a close loss this year. Can you trust Wentz to engineer a blowout easy win? They covered 15.5 three times this year: twice vs Houston and that smashing of the Bills in Orchard Park. Wentz averaged only 21 passes in those games, while Taylor ran for 140+ each time. In the 23-17 win at home Wentz somehow threw it 4 times even though the Colts jumped out to a 17-0 lead. I can see Reich being happy with a 2 score win here. It's Jags +15.5 or nothing for me.

Pitt/Balt - Line has moved as high as 6 when Johnson went to protocols and is now down to 3.5 as he's (cough) miraculously back off them. No Lamar but we know Huntley is a close facsimile. Steelers media is trying to gin up fan enthusiasm but they know the Colts are almost certain winners. Still, in the end its Steelers/Ravens and if you can get more than 3 either way you probably have to take it.

Tenn/Hous - Tits get the coveted #1 with a win and are feeling good about King Henry being close to return. Houston took a 2 game win streak to the Bay Area last week and got shut down by an average Niners D. Texans have Tits attention since they beat them in Nashville in November. I'd expect a workmanlike 14+ point win here, so lay the 10.5.

NO/Atl - Possibly no Pitts for Atlanta, not sure who Ryan can throw it to. Falcons beat Trevor Siemian last time they played, although Saints rallied from 24-6 down in the 4th to take the lead. Saints are playing for a playoff spot and now roll with Taysom, so I love them on shorts odds this week.

SF/LAR - Shanahan threatening to roll with Garrapolo this week, which is probably insanity talking. Thought Lance looked OK last week. Niners pasted the Rams on a Monday night in November, but Rams have won five straight and are feeling a little more clutch these days. Probably Rams or nothing here.

Jets/Buff - Bills need the win to get a home game next week. They blasted the Jets in NJ and were laying 14 back then. Mike White threw 4 picks in that one. Now its an improving Zach Wilson throwing to Braxton Berrios, not sure if that's a big step up. Jets have played their asses off the last few weeks, but nobody likes to go to Buffalo in January. I think the Bills can cover the 16.5.

NE/Mia - Dolphins always seemed to give Brady fits at Hard Rock, and they beat Mac in week 1 this year. The numbers say the Pats should win this one pretty easily, but Miami has won 5 straight at home since November. That warm weather home cooking seems to be working for them. Pats took out their frustrations in blowing the division on the Jags last week. I could see Hoodie watching the scoreboard and pulling people off the field when the Bills get 20 ahead. Pass.

Sea/Ari - Seahawks put on a huge show vs the lowly Lions last week, with Russ finally looking 100%, while Arizona stopped their losing streak with a huge win at Dallas. Cards beat the Hawks earlier with Colt McCoy running the show. Like the over more than the side here.

Car/Tampa - Bucs don't have much to play for here and are getting depleted. Doubt Brady plays the whole game. Panthers have been awful for awhile now, would they get up for this one? Tampa hammered these guys a couple of weeks ago with Brady throwing mostly to AB and Vaughn ripping off some big runs. It's probably Bucs or nothing but more likely a pass. Panthers haven't contributed to an over in three weeks, but the number is too low to play.

Chargers/Raiders - Raiders point differential more emblematic of a 6-10 team, yet here they are. I keep think the Chargers are a good team and then they do what they did against the Texans a couple of weeks ago. Still have to think they're the better team, although LV has been leaning on Jacobs more and that's exactly the route to beating LA. If it comes down to FGs give me Carlson any day of the week. Pass.

Summary - Under KC/Denv, Over Chi/Minn, Jax, Pitt, Tenn, NO, LAR, Buff, Over Sea/Ari
 
Gandolf said:
Been a good year so far, probably should tread lightly in week 18 with all the unknowns. But I do need 5 for Pick Club so let's take a look:

KC/Denv - Chiefs can maintain the #2 spot and have a small chance of finishing #1 with a win. Saturday game so they'll know nothing about their fate, would expect a full effort. First matchup was a low scoring KC's double digit win. Tough to lay double digits again. Under 45 looks like an OK play.

Dallas/Philly - Expecting Eagles to rest Hurts but Minshew is a better passing threat anyways. Also don't see McCarthy playing Dak more than a half to keep him fresh. Total is only 43.5, think it reflects that scenario, same with the line. Pass

Cinc/Cle - No Burrow, no Baker. Total is only 38. Browns -6 seems a little too much but as a exhibition game I'm not inclined to play.

GB/Det - Not sure if or how much we see Arod and Adams. Lions were not surprisingly whipped by Seattle on the road last week, would think they'd like to make their mark with a good effort against the #1 seed, even if it is only a shell. Again, too much not known to be worth a play.

Chi/Minn - This one could be a fun game, neither team with much to play for could put on a show. Fields back at QB, Vikings at full strength, indoor game. I like the chances of getting over 44. No idea who will win.

Wash/NYG - This one has no juice. Giants are a disaster, but they're at home. Washington -7 seems crazy even if the Gmen have given up. Total is low on merit. Pass

Indy/Jax - What a huge spread, -15.5. Jags are 31st in TOP, Indy is 4th. No Robinson for Jags. Colts are in win and in mode. But the Jags have been a thorn in Indy's side the last few years, including a close loss this year. Can you trust Wentz to engineer a blowout easy win? They covered 15.5 three times this year: twice vs Houston and that smashing of the Bills in Orchard Park. Wentz averaged only 21 passes in those games, while Taylor ran for 140+ each time. In the 23-17 win at home Wentz somehow threw it 4 times even though the Colts jumped out to a 17-0 lead. I can see Reich being happy with a 2 score win here. It's Jags +15.5 or nothing for me.

Pitt/Balt - Line has moved as high as 6 when Johnson went to protocols and is now down to 3.5 as he's (cough) miraculously back off them. No Lamar but we know Huntley is a close facsimile. Steelers media is trying to gin up fan enthusiasm but they know the Colts are almost certain winners. Still, in the end its Steelers/Ravens and if you can get more than 3 either way you probably have to take it.

Tenn/Hous - Tits get the coveted #1 with a win and are feeling good about King Henry being close to return. Houston took a 2 game win streak to the Bay Area last week and got shut down by an average Niners D. Texans have Tits attention since they beat them in Nashville in November. I'd expect a workmanlike 14+ point win here, so lay the 10.5.

NO/Atl - Possibly no Pitts for Atlanta, not sure who Ryan can throw it to. Falcons beat Trevor Siemian last time they played, although Saints rallied from 24-6 down in the 4th to take the lead. Saints are playing for a playoff spot and now roll with Taysom, so I love them on shorts odds this week.

SF/LAR - Shanahan threatening to roll with Garrapolo this week, which is probably insanity talking. Thought Lance looked OK last week. Niners pasted the Rams on a Monday night in November, but Rams have won five straight and are feeling a little more clutch these days. Probably Rams or nothing here.

Jets/Buff - Bills need the win to get a home game next week. They blasted the Jets in NJ and were laying 14 back then. Mike White threw 4 picks in that one. Now its an improving Zach Wilson throwing to Braxton Berrios, not sure if that's a big step up. Jets have played their asses off the last few weeks, but nobody likes to go to Buffalo in January. I think the Bills can cover the 16.5.

NE/Mia - Dolphins always seemed to give Brady fits at Hard Rock, and they beat Mac in week 1 this year. The numbers say the Pats should win this one pretty easily, but Miami has won 5 straight at home since November. That warm weather home cooking seems to be working for them. Pats took out their frustrations in blowing the division on the Jags last week. I could see Hoodie watching the scoreboard and pulling people off the field when the Bills get 20 ahead. Pass.

Sea/Ari - Seahawks put on a huge show vs the lowly Lions last week, with Russ finally looking 100%, while Arizona stopped their losing streak with a huge win at Dallas. Cards beat the Hawks earlier with Colt McCoy running the show. Like the over more than the side here.

Car/Tampa - Bucs don't have much to play for here and are getting depleted. Doubt Brady plays the whole game. Panthers have been awful for awhile now, would they get up for this one? Tampa hammered these guys a couple of weeks ago with Brady throwing mostly to AB and Vaughn ripping off some big runs. It's probably Bucs or nothing but more likely a pass. Panthers haven't contributed to an over in three weeks, but the number is too low to play.

Chargers/Raiders - Raiders point differential more emblematic of a 6-10 team, yet here they are. I keep think the Chargers are a good team and then they do what they did against the Texans a couple of weeks ago. Still have to think they're the better team, although LV has been leaning on Jacobs more and that's exactly the route to beating LA. If it comes down to FGs give me Carlson any day of the week. Pass.

Summary - Under KC/Denv, Over Chi/Minn, Jax, Pitt, Tenn, NO, LAR, Buff, Over Sea/Ari
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Good luck with all your plays except those 5 you have in pick club! :biglaugh::biglaugh::violenthockey:
 
I actually made a bet on a side this week! early too so hopefully I don’t get fucked by the Rona.

Kc 1st half -6.5, felt like there a pretty good chance that ends up being -7 2marro. Since kc has turned things around they been jumping out on just bout everyone, can’t even remember last time they wernt up at least a td at half? On the other hand donks offense has been freaking brutal, they havnt scored a 1st qrtr point since facing lions a month ago! They been even worse since Teddy b got hurt and that bum Lock has taken over, now their 2 stud rbs have no room to run and their skill positions all but worthless. Even when kc struggled vs donks d they were still up 10-3 at half in a game donks offense only mustered 1 td, and that was with teddy b. Gotta think they will be able to jump out and cruise in this one as I just can’t see Denver scoring much of anything.
 
2daBank said:
I actually made a bet on a side this week! early too so hopefully I don’t get fucked by the Rona.

Kc 1st half -6.5, felt like there a pretty good chance that ends up being -7 2marro. Since kc has turned things around they been jumping out on just bout everyone, can’t even remember last time they wernt up at least a td at half? On the other hand donks offense has been freaking brutal, they havnt scored a 1st qrtr point since facing lions a month ago! They been even worse since Teddy b got hurt and that bum Lock has taken over, now their 2 stud rbs have no room to run and their skill positions all but worthless. Even when kc struggled vs donks d they were still up 10-3 at half in a game donks offense only mustered 1 td, and that was with teddy b. Gotta think they will be able to jump out and cruise in this one as I just can’t see Denver scoring much of anything.
Click to expand...
Like this. Almost seems too easy
 
Gandolf said:
Interesting line seeing Baltimore favored by 5.5 now over Pittsburgh. There is some incentive for Baltimore to lose this one, as the winner ends up 2nd in the division. Aside from draft position, which could move as many as five spots, you're talking about the difference between playing at Indy and at Philly next season or instead playing at Houston and at Washington.
Click to expand...
Intriguing. Isn’t Harbaugh the guy that’s won like 97 straight preseason games? Do we really think he lays down here? Could be smart, but hmmm …
 
2daBank said:
I actually made a bet on a side this week! early too so hopefully I don’t get fucked by the Rona.

Kc 1st half -6.5, felt like there a pretty good chance that ends up being -7 2marro. Since kc has turned things around they been jumping out on just bout everyone, can’t even remember last time they wernt up at least a td at half? On the other hand donks offense has been freaking brutal, they havnt scored a 1st qrtr point since facing lions a month ago! They been even worse since Teddy b got hurt and that bum Lock has taken over, now their 2 stud rbs have no room to run and their skill positions all but worthless. Even when kc struggled vs donks d they were still up 10-3 at half in a game donks offense only mustered 1 td, and that was with teddy b. Gotta think they will be able to jump out and cruise in this one as I just can’t see Denver scoring much of anything.
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Same....also 1Q -3...
 
skanless13 said:
Like this. Almost seems too easy
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Yea, maybe a little, but I mean what can they make it with game line being -10.5? 1st half total is shaded also which I find more unusual, it at 23 w full game down to 44.5. Are they thinking there a chance kc doesn’t play guys the full game?
 
aplous said:
I think Baltimore wants to shove it up Ben’s ass….they don’t want his last game to be a win in their house?
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I don’t think there a chance in hell ravens lay down. Dunno how either team scores much of anything tho so not really interested in laying points, I almost always take 3 or more with whomever getting them In this series so I’ll prob pass or play under.
 
Marsski said:
Who is going to pack it in early?

There's always a team or two that no shows in the final week. Who is it going to be? I generally look for a road team with a dead man walking coach or other locker room issues....
Click to expand...
Carolina - packed it in weeks ago
 
2daBank said:
I actually made a bet on a side this week! early too so hopefully I don’t get fucked by the Rona.

Kc 1st half -6.5, felt like there a pretty good chance that ends up being -7 2marro. Since kc has turned things around they been jumping out on just bout everyone, can’t even remember last time they wernt up at least a td at half? On the other hand donks offense has been freaking brutal, they havnt scored a 1st qrtr point since facing lions a month ago! They been even worse since Teddy b got hurt and that bum Lock has taken over, now their 2 stud rbs have no room to run and their skill positions all but worthless. Even when kc struggled vs donks d they were still up 10-3 at half in a game donks offense only mustered 1 td, and that was with teddy b. Gotta think they will be able to jump out and cruise in this one as I just can’t see Denver scoring much of anything.
Click to expand...
Tailed on this...sorry
 
Zeke said:
Tailed on this...sorry
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Lol. We be ok. Long as kc d a little embarrassed off last week I don’t see how they let donks score. Their only 1st half td since Lock took over came on a Carr int in donks red zone with like 2 min to go in half.
 
i dont understand why philly would play hurts today without any their rbs available? i think this a sneaky over with minshew playing qb with all the guys dallas d is missing, feel like dallas might want the offense to get some good drives in, think it strange the kc/donks total was higher than this one.. i really dont even mind seeing backups for this total.
 
Just a pure guess but why wouldn’t Denver air it out with Lock? Looking forward to playing the KC game Live.
 
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