Week 17 Discussion Thread

THOUGHTS going into Christmas...

Washington does not seem to be giving up +7

When are we going to stop saying "This time for sure!" with DET?! MINN +6

KC had like 3 points, but I'll take the +13 at home.

HOTlanta getting +9 @ Home.

Chicago just goes out and keeps winning +3

GNTS RAIDERS. 2025 Draft Bowl Game. Raiders are the kinda team that wins these, then the fan base is pissed because they fall down the draft board. Raiders -1

JETS getting +13.5 at home. Like Rams, no need to run up the score, get in, get out with 0 men hurt.

Seattle is thinking about the Niners. Carolina +7

How About The Rest Of You CTG?! Clock is counting down To Christmas Football!
 
They really failed with these Xmas games, what an awful sack of shit games these 3 are!!

I dunno wtf been going on with Gibbs/lions run game but the best way to attack minny on the ground. That said they were terrible rushing the 1st meeting. Pretty sure I lost Gibbs props on that one too, lol. Maybe jj over passing if number low enough or one the minny WRs, god knows lions can’t stop much of anything.

I assume Dak number be pushing 280 which be tough, Williams didn’t get a lot of work Sunday and Washington can’t stop the run. I’d prob look at Williams rushing assuming his number in 60s.

That bout it.
 
2daBank said:
They really failed with these Xmas games, what an awful sack of shit games these 3 are!!

I dunno wtf been going on with Gibbs/lions run game but the best way to attack minny on the ground. That said they were terrible rushing the 1st meeting. Pretty sure I lost Gibbs props on that one too, lol. Maybe jj over passing if number low enough or one the minny WRs, god knows lions can’t stop much of anything.

I assume Dak number be pushing 280 which be tough, Williams didn’t get a lot of work Sunday and Washington can’t stop the run. I’d prob look at Williams rushing assuming his number in 60s.

That bout it.
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I don't think JJ is likely to play. Quick turnaround, not necessary and the hand is a tad important. Can't see him doing much if he does play.
 
Actually before the season those games looked pretty good and important but such is parity and injuries.

Xmas day should be an NBA day anyway, they've owned it forever so kinda nice to see karma come in and take a big dump on The Shield.
 
There will be some push for Chiefs bets getting the huge number but I think they don’t give 2 shits. People can’t give tickets away, could be 50/50 split with Denver fans that haven’t seen a win at Arrowhead in a decade +

Oladukun is awful and we can’t run it. Maybe Under if the D shows up with some pride.
 
2daBank said:
They really failed with these Xmas games, what an awful sack of shit games these 3 are!!

I dunno wtf been going on with Gibbs/lions run game but the best way to attack minny on the ground. That said they were terrible rushing the 1st meeting. Pretty sure I lost Gibbs props on that one too, lol. Maybe jj over passing if number low enough or one the minny WRs, god knows lions can’t stop much of anything.

I assume Dak number be pushing 280 which be tough, Williams didn’t get a lot of work Sunday and Washington can’t stop the run. I’d prob look at Williams rushing assuming his number in 60s.

That bout it.
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I'll have a post later on the Lions and my personal frustration...

I'll give ya a hint, the fact that ONLY run play after the late 2nd quarter was a strategic one is still pissing me off.

Thread later!
 
KJ said:
Actually before the season those games looked pretty good and important but such is parity and injuries.

Xmas day should be an NBA day anyway, they've owned it forever so kinda nice to see karma come in and take a big dump on The Shield.
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Yea I’m sure they expected at least 2 of those to have significant meaning but guess kinda fitting since I think the nfl is shit anyways.
 
KJ said:
Actually before the season those games looked pretty good and important but such is parity and injuries.

Xmas day should be an NBA day anyway, they've owned it forever so kinda nice to see karma come in and take a big dump on The Shield.
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Definitely a revenge fuck tour.
What absolute slop! This is like Showtime being better than HBO back in the day!!
 
Historically, it has been profitable to fade teams that “need” to win at the end of the regular season. Since 1990, eliminated teams playing teams that need to win over the final two weeks of the regular season have gone 108-69-4 (61%) against the spread (ATS).

For Week 17 this season, the following eliminated teams fit this trend:

Vikings vs. DET
Browns vs. PIT
Dolphins vs. TB
 
Vapster said:
Historically, it has been profitable to fade teams that “need” to win at the end of the regular season. Since 1990, eliminated teams playing teams that need to win over the final two weeks of the regular season have gone 108-69-4 (61%) against the spread (ATS).

For Week 17 this season, the following eliminated teams fit this trend:

Vikings vs. DET
Browns vs. PIT
Dolphins vs. TB
Click to expand...

Good post, thanks. Certainly refutes any conventional wisdom of the team playing with urgency vs. a team having mailed it in, or at least thought to have.

Curious, where did you see this?
 
Frank Costanza said:
Good post, thanks. Certainly refutes any conventional wisdom of the team playing with urgency vs. a team having mailed it in, or at least thought to have.

Curious, where did you see this?
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Used to be that teams resting starters was an awesome bet on the final week, I know that. But it's tapered off to where the last week hasn't been as dramatic the last few seasons. Possibly because half the league gets in now so there are fewer games that mean anything? Dunno on the recency trends because I've gravitated away from trends in general...although situational capping is still a trend I guess.

Curious how the dog role has played the last 10 years compared to the previous 10 for instance. NEED to win has never been something I'd bet on for sure, usually just means crazy added pressure but NFL favorites have done damage lately in general compared to past decades.
 
Vapster said:
I've seen this trend over the years because I can't tell you HOW MANY times The Raiders needed to win and win... Then lose.
I'm not a big believer in that theory.

@Frank Costanza I usually look around the internet for sports news and ran into this site. You all my have heard about it, but not me.

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Brief history on Action Network, surprised you've never heard of Vap. It's them and VsIN then the rest. Many people here have probably followed a few of their contributors in some fashion and might not even know it. Simple Wiki shows how big they are, I don't pay for help but if I did...they'd be at the top of the list.

The Action Network - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
KJ said:
Brief history on Action Network, surprised you've never heard of Vap. It's them and VsIN then the rest. Many people here have probably followed a few of their contributors in some fashion and might not even know it. Simple Wiki shows how big they are, I don't pay for help but if I did...they'd be at the top of the list.

The Action Network - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
Click to expand...

I'm surprised as well @KJ

I read a lot, look for things to read, read other people's comments on porn sites.

"Dude the way she moved at 4:23 of the video? I couldn't hold back!"

Then I can just move it to the 3:00 min mark and get ready to blast off as well!

Where were we. Oh yeah. Sports. I didn't know about VsIN until I visited the Circa in downtown a couple years ago!

Very strange...
 
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Vapster said:
Historically, it has been profitable to fade teams that “need” to win at the end of the regular season. Since 1990, eliminated teams playing teams that need to win over the final two weeks of the regular season have gone 108-69-4 (61%) against the spread (ATS).

For Week 17 this season, the following eliminated teams fit this trend:

Vikings vs. DET
Browns vs. PIT
Dolphins vs. TB
Click to expand...

I love fading the teams that “have to” win. That said not sure Steelers or Bucs really qualify? Steelers just have to win one of last 2 (assuming ravens win this week which kinda doubtful, Steelers could lose and clinch which be fitting for this division!) so not sure they feel the same kinda pressure here? Not sure with tiebreakers and bucs? Assuming Seattle beats panthers im
Not sure if that makes week 18 a play in regardless what Bucs do? Still no problem fading Tampa anyways.
 
I been loving getting chargers as dogs lately but seems odd to me they were dogs to kc and Dallas and now they favs against Houston in what I think be a terrible matchup for a team with oline issues. Under might be better tho.
 
2daBank said:
I been loving getting chargers as dogs lately but seems odd to me they were dogs to kc and Dallas and now they favs against Houston in what I think be a terrible matchup for a team with oline issues. Under might be better tho.
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For me Texans peaked a couple weeks ago as SB type favorites from the masses because they still have a ton of offensive flaws and now after the last game, defensive flaws. Jeanty wishes he could play that defense every week!

Chargers have gained a bit of confidence since we all wrote them off early in the season due to OL injuries I believe. Maybe backups have gained incredible experience, not sure. But Herbert has been great lately while all the focus has been on Trevor's late season run.
 
KJ said:
For me Texans peaked a couple weeks ago as SB type favorites from the masses because they still have a ton of offensive flaws and now after the last game, defensive flaws. Jeanty wishes he could play that defense every week!

Chargers have gained a bit of confidence since we all wrote them off early in the season due to OL injuries I believe. Maybe backups have gained incredible experience, not sure. But Herbert has been great lately while all the focus has been on Trevor's late season run.
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I like both teams, think either could end up in the afc champ game. I been playing chargers the last several weeks as dogs just don’t think this a great matchup for them. Pretty sure Jeanty last week was more anomaly than the norm, Texans run d has been pretty stout, totally disagree they have defensive flaws I think they easily the best d in the league. Offensively no doubt, their oline always an issue, they don’t run it all that well and rarely protect stroud. I’d think the passing game could be good but I seriously doubt it will be vs chargers. I could def be talked into under other than a side but I think it Texans or nothing for me. What have Texans done to be considered not peaking still? They played a bad gm last week sure but they havnt lost for 2 months.
 
Under 39.5 might be the way to go. Have a hard time seeing either Houston or chargers breaking 20. Unless of course they both get to 20, that would fuck things up.
 
Assuming love plays or even if he doesn’t i prob still like the packers whether Lamar plays or not. They need some changes in balty things have totally derailed. Reports Lamar sleeping in meetings and other nonsense, early in the year the offense was solid and the d couldn’t stop a nose bleed, then the d was good for awhile and the o stunk, now I’m not sure they good at anything. Only game they have won the last month is the gm it looked like Cincy totally quit!
 
2daBank said:
I like both teams, think either could end up in the afc champ game. I been playing chargers the last several weeks as dogs just don’t think this a great matchup for them. Pretty sure Jeanty last week was more anomaly than the norm, Texans run d has been pretty stout, totally disagree they have defensive flaws I think they easily the best d in the league. Offensively no doubt, their oline always an issue, they don’t run it all that well and rarely protect stroud. I’d think the passing game could be good but I seriously doubt it will be vs chargers. I could def be talked into under other than a side but I think it Texans or nothing for me. What have Texans done to be considered not peaking still? They played a bad gm last week sure but they havnt lost for 2 months.
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The league?

We'll differ there, hell I like Jax defense more than Houston in their division. Will give them the nod over Denver though for sure. But Seattle is better than both by a mile in my book. Chargers aren't far off and much better offense. Still cautiously think it's SEA/NE bowl but SAN DIEGO and Rams are on the list for sure. Jax/Houston are hanging in there. Zero belief in Denver.
 
KJ said:
The league?

We'll differ there, hell I like Jax defense more than Houston in their division. Will give them the nod over Denver though for sure. But Seattle is better than both by a mile in my book. Chargers aren't far off and much better offense. Still cautiously think it's SEA/NE bowl but SAN DIEGO and Rams are on the list for sure. Jax/Houston are hanging in there. Zero belief in Denver.
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Hope you right on Seattle I have a really nice Future I played on them at beginning the year but I’m still afraid darnold end up blowing it. That the only d I think debatable with Houston’s. Jags pass d isn’t all that great imo. Chargers pass d is really good but they can be run on more so than Houston I think, that shouldn’t hurt them a ton here since Houston run game sucks.
 
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Vapster said:
Historically, it has been profitable to fade teams that “need” to win at the end of the regular season. Since 1990, eliminated teams playing teams that need to win over the final two weeks of the regular season have gone 108-69-4 (61%) against the spread (ATS).

For Week 17 this season, the following eliminated teams fit this trend:

Vikings vs. DET
Browns vs. PIT
Dolphins vs. TB
Click to expand...
Great trend.
 
Steelers will know before their game whether they already won the div or need to win, but even if ravens do beat pack which I doubt I just don’t think Steelers really qualify for me in the traditional “have to” win spot. I generally limit this to teams who truly have to win or season over which not case here.,

I have no clue how the tiebreakers go but im pretty sure if panthers lose to Seattle then it doesn’t matter if bucs win or not their meeting next week be for the division. But since panthers and bucs play at same time I suppose ya could look at it as a must? Either way nothing wrong with fading Bucs they have been terrible.
 
2daBank said:
I like both teams, think either could end up in the afc champ game. I been playing chargers the last several weeks as dogs just don’t think this a great matchup for them. Pretty sure Jeanty last week was more anomaly than the norm, Texans run d has been pretty stout, totally disagree they have defensive flaws I think they easily the best d in the league. Offensively no doubt, their oline always an issue, they don’t run it all that well and rarely protect stroud. I’d think the passing game could be good but I seriously doubt it will be vs chargers. I could def be talked into under other than a side but I think it Texans or nothing for me. What have Texans done to be considered not peaking still? They played a bad gm last week sure but they havnt lost for 2 months.
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Huge coaching edge for Texan in that one
 
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