Week 17 Discussion Thread

yeah I really don't like that teaser for the reasons C-man said and also some of those games are coin flips. could see buffalo losing and who knows if Denver shows up. if u wanna do a teaser like that I would look at like chargers, ravens, Vikings...teams like that who have motivation.
 
C-MAN said:
3/4 of those are teased across 0...could hit but not a fan of that strategy. Would rather have KC +10.5 (and prob Oak +15) personally.
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Agreed, the difference between -1 & +1 is basically nill so there's two points of lost value right there when crossing zero. The exception would be say taking a -3 to a +7 but I'm still not a fan of that.
 
Heard this morning Pitt is likely to sit Ben & Bell. I assume they must be giving Jets as much of a chance as Vegas is because they could still wind up with #1 seed. Given their strategy I think Cleveland is worth a look.
 
Zeke said:
Heard this morning Pitt is likely to sit Ben & Bell. I assume they must be giving Jets as much of a chance as Vegas is because they could still wind up with #1 seed. Given their strategy I think Cleveland is worth a look.
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I have a season bet that a team will go 0-16. Pays 10:1 have it for 100. Do I take Cleveland ML
 
Zeke said:
Lots of people here will tell you to let it ride but I'm all about reduced winnings for a sure thing. No line on Bovada now but if it comes out around +250 do as Cavs said, risk $40 on it so you're guaranteed a profit.
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It's ultimately about your risk tolerance and not ours but yea Zane has it on the button imo. It'd be foolish also mathematically not to put anything on Browns, I mean at least put something to respect the possibility and not come out a total loser after 15 out of 16 successful weeks. Its an NFL team, a desperate one, against a team that gives two shits about winning and will rest star players
 
Zeke said:
Agreed, the difference between -1 & +1 is basically nill so there's two points of lost value right there when crossing zero. The exception would be say taking a -3 to a +7 but I'm still not a fan of that.
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That would be a 10 point teaser and ties lose pretty much everywhere on those so I'm with you, not a fan. Crossing the zero is worth it to move a high juice -3 (like -125 or -130) to +3.5 but that's about it.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
It's ultimately about your risk tolerance and not ours but yea Zane has it on the button imo. It'd be foolish also mathematically not to put anything on Browns, I mean at least put something to respect the possibility and not come out a total loser after 15 out of 16 successful weeks. Its an NFL team, a desperate one, against a team that gives two shits about winning and will rest star players
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So if I bet Cleveland +7 for 500 i can win both bets or make 500, correct?
 
Zeke said:
Lots of people here will tell you to let it ride but I'm all about reduced winnings for a sure thing. No line on Bovada now but if it comes out around +250 do as Cavs said, risk $40 on it so you're guaranteed a profit.
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Why wouldn't I take the 7 points to guarantee a win? Wouldn't that be best? 500 on +7, win both or win 500. No?
 
gamblinjunkie said:
Why wouldn't I take the 7 points to guarantee a win? Wouldn't that be best? 500 on +7, win both or win 500. No?
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You should bet on ML imo. Then you don't have to risk so much since the payout for a 7-point dog winning is so nice.. If you want to do that huge of a hedge, then only risk like 300 on the ML. So if they win then you still get a nice sum, but then you still get 700 if they lose.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Because they could end up not covering and then you only win 500.[/QUOTE
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VirginiaCavs said:
You're still guaranteeing a win if you bet on the ML. You're just not having to risk as much.
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ok I didn't think about it that way. Betting ML now before it drops even more. Thanks for your help. I usually never hedge but with Ben and Bell not playing I know I'm screwed
 
With the Bowles extension out of the way I expect the Jets to lay down tomorrow. I look for something like 47-6 Patriots tomorrow with Hackenberg making his NFL debut without a pass attempt.
 
Pisses me off to make it this far and have Pitt playing for something but because Pats play Jets it's a meaningless game for Pitt.SMFH
 
brewers888 said:
With the Bowles extension out of the way I expect the Jets to lay down tomorrow. I look for something like 47-6 Patriots tomorrow with Hackenberg making his NFL debut without a pass attempt.
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really? All it takes is a couple big hits on Brady and the gameplan will get conservative real quick. Prob leave it alone but I'd love to see a close one.
 
Regarding Bills situation.... no way the Bengals are going into Balty and winning without Burfict. I was on them last week and would love nothing more than to see them help the Bills get in... not happening.

Best I think I can hope for is the Titans and Chargers to lose and Bills win......

Been thinking about the Jaguars game all week... They ran into a buzzsaw last week @ SF but do they really want to go into the postseason 0-2 last 2 games? Body of work the whole season light years better than Tenn, leaning heavy on tt o19.5. This could be a statement game.
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
With the pats getting back to back buklshit calls go their way for review is the league making the pats win it again by ensuring them home field.

Perhaps in terms of money if Brady wins numver 6 the league will make millions in videos history promos.

They need something to Maje the league look. Good and what better way to say look we have the best qb ever playing right now.
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Sammy, first of all your stuff cracks me up, love reading your comments....but....you really think the league wants the Pats to win so that they can make more money??? What would a poll of all the owners say to that theory or to the gazillions of fans that hate the Pats for the simple reason that they win and they are arrogant....and it's the rule that is bullshit not the interpretation of the calls which were made correctly by the replay officials...ha ha no offense meant, just another way of perceiving it
 
gamblinjunkie said:
I have a season bet that a team will go 0-16. Pays 10:1 have it for 100. Do I take Cleveland ML
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I almost always hedge....one thought would be

200 on cleve +6
200 on cleve ML

If cleve loses but covers you win your 1000
If cleve wins out right you win 540
If cleve loses and doesn't cover you win 580

Just a thought
 
BJPLAYER said:
I almost always hedge....one thought would be

200 on cleve +6
200 on cleve ML

If cleve loses but covers you win your 1000
If cleve wins out right you win 540
If cleve loses and doesn't cover you win 580

Just a thought
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Actually further thought leads me to believe I would probably lay 330 on the ML only and guarantee approximately 630-640
 
Freezing in Pittsburgh today. If Steelers start Landry this game screams under. Everyone is going to want to get out of that stadium as quickly as possible.
 
gamblinjunkie said:
I have a season bet that a team will go 0-16. Pays 10:1 have it for 100. Do I take Cleveland ML
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Clev ML +185 or close. If you go 350 @ +185 = $647.50 and other side would be 1000 -350 =650. I think given that Pitt is resting players etc...I would hedge for a guaranteed profit. This is a midpoint calc, but obviously you can weight it more one way or the other. GL.
 
Lexington 125 said:
really? All it takes is a couple big hits on Brady and the gameplan will get conservative real quick. Prob leave it alone but I'd love to see a close one.
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You could be right but I just don't see the Jets showing up today. They have been absolutely terrible on the road with their one win being at Cleveland in a game that the Jets were dominated in. Brady should be able to do enough in one half to put this game away easily and Hoyer can get an additional couple of touchdowns.
 
brewers888 said:
Knowing the Jets as I do they will probably find a way to win and kill their draft position even more than they already have.
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Why not, right Brewers? I mean...they’ve already re-upped on Bubba Gump as their head coach for 2 more years. That fucking guy is so stupid with in game decisions I wouldn’t be shocked if he had to ask whether a football had laces or a zipper.

I mean. Go 3 years with no playoff spot...now 7 years since a playoff game for the team. The HC is 9-23 in his last 32 games (soon to be 9-24 after today). BUT LETS SIGN HIM FOR 2 MORE YEARS!!!

JFC...THE JETS MAKE ME SICK. ONLY TEAM IN THE SPORT THAT THINKS YOU SHOULD GET TO HANG BANNERS FOR 5 WIN SEASONS. DIS-FUCKING-GUSTING
 
scarf31 said:
Why not, right Brewers? I mean...they’ve already re-upped on Bubba Gump as their head coach for 2 more years. That fucking guy is so stupid with in game decisions I wouldn’t be shocked if he had to ask whether a football had laces or a zipper.

I mean. Go 3 years with no playoff spot...now 7 years since a playoff game for the team. The HC is 9-23 in his last 32 games (soon to be 9-24 after today). BUT LETS SIGN HIM FOR 2 MORE YEARS!!!

JFC...THE JETS MAKE ME SICK. ONLY TEAM IN THE SPORT THAT THINKS YOU SHOULD GET TO HANG BANNERS FOR 5 WIN SEASONS. DIS-FUCKING-GUSTING
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I have never seen the media this gaga for the coach of a team with 5 wins. We all knew the extension was coming but I am hoping that both Bowles and Maccagnan get fired after next season. Really the worst thing would have been to fire Bowles and keep Maccagnan because his 3 drafts have been awful.

I have mentioned this before but I haven't watched a game since they won their third game and killed any chance of picking in the top two. Until this team drafts a young QB I refuse to watch.
 
Just woke up - Cleveland line is down to -5.5 and +195, I think value is lost at this point. I do have Cleveland +7 for buck so not sure at this point I can do anything other than hope Pitt wins and maybe get some live action
 
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