Week 16 SEC Discussion

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Going to be weird having a 4 game (at least for now) conference appetizer before the conference championship game. Here are the games and my PR:

aTm @ Tennessee (+11)
Vandy @ UGA (-33.5)
Mizzou @ Miss St (+0.5)
Ole Miss @ LSU (-0.5)
Alabama vs Florida (+15.5)
 
Feel like mizzou prob the better team in that one. Their only loss to the crappier sec teams was against vols way back at beginning of the year which doesn’t mean much to me now. Messy st has played way more the better half the conf than mizzou has so that makes it little tougher to cap. Good news for mizzou is they don’t have to worry about getting crushed by a run game this week. Messy st played Uga closer but mizzou was really hanging with Uga right up until that terrible deal right before half that was the beginning of the end, that second half was incredibly disappointing but I think coach drink will have them ready this week! This game would give them a winning season which I think important to them.
 
Ryno14 said:
Liking Ole Miss this week quite a bit
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tough to argue that. Seems like a good spot to fade lsu, last week was probably their playoffs! What does twink man think?

this game would get them to .500 but their “courageous” self imposed bowl ban for this year makes that kinda meaningless doesn’t it?
 
2daBank said:
How long has Ole piss been off? Only game I recall them playing in some time was the egg bowl.
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that was the only game they have played in the past month +. Think I’ve come to conclusion I mostly want to stay away from games/teams like that. Totally unpredictable.
 
That a crazy high total in the ole piss game!! I started looking at scores of both teams and was like “hmm, over?” Then I saw total. Lol
 
gps_3 said:
Going to be weird having a 4 game (at least for now) conference appetizer before the conference championship game. Here are the games and my PR:

aTm @ Tennessee (+11)
Vandy @ UGA (-33.5)
Mizzou @ Miss St (+0.5)
Ole Miss @ LSU (-0.5)
Alabama vs Florida (+15.5)
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Shades of 1997. Too bad the Rebels aren't bigger dogs.
 
2daBank said:
Anyone wanna talk me off mizzou? I’m drinking the coach drink cool-aid!! Lol
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Tiger defense. What you say about it?

Unfortunately, Mississippi State could not continue their "momentum" from UGA and Ole Miss through their off week and into the Auburn game. Think Auburn's D had something to do with that, which I knew would have a say in it, but didn't put enough credit on that aspect of the game.

So...does / can Miss State recapture any of that improvement they showed or was it not really real?

Said it last week and I'll say it this week again. I like Miss State D. I don't like Mizzou D. But maybe Miss State is bad enough on O that it falls into the group that Mizzou D does ok vs (like UK, SCary, Vandy). That's probably what it boils down to.

Both teams got humbled after maybe feeling pretty good or atleast better about themselves last week. It is a tough game for me.
 
Funny I put "momentum" in quotes. Those guys on the NFL Channel Sunday show make me laugh, more comedy than informative stuff. But Mariucci called momentum a collection of moments, not actually like winning momentum. He was just being funny, but in a way it kind of works. I forget the team that he was using it on. But Miss State has no momentum in a conventional sense, but did have some positive moments of play their two prior games. That didn't show up vs Auburn.
 
s--k said:
Tiger defense. What you say about it?

Unfortunately, Mississippi State could not continue their "momentum" from UGA and Ole Miss through their off week and into the Auburn game. Think Auburn's D had something to do with that, which I knew would have a say in it, but didn't put enough credit on that aspect of the game.

So...does / can Miss State recapture any of that improvement they showed or was it not really real?

Said it last week and I'll say it this week again. I like Miss State D. I don't like Mizzou D. But maybe Miss State is bad enough on O that it falls into the group that Mizzou D does ok vs (like UK, SCary, Vandy). That's probably what it boils down to.

Both teams got humbled after maybe feeling pretty good or atleast better about themselves last week. It is a tough game for me.
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their run d worries me but don’t expect that to matter much here. I love when they aggressive and bring pressure. When they started doing that they gave Uga real problems, unfortunately it was short lived. I don’t think it tough to scheme against messy offense but I will def have to look harder at messy st defense.
 
So we have LSU coming off cloud 9 high upset...and an Ole Miss will be missing 113 2020 receptions. Would make life easier if Ole Miss was just like "yeah, we're all in to finish the season we want to win the LSU game". But picking games really isn't easy and the teams always find new curve balls to throw us.
 
s--k said:
So we have LSU coming off cloud 9 high upset...and an Ole Miss will be missing 113 2020 receptions. Would make life easier if Ole Miss was just like "yeah, we're all in to finish the season we want to win the LSU game". But picking games really isn't easy and the teams always find new curve balls to throw us.
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A lot of em “feel” like rivalry games in SEC, but this another big one
 
s--k said:
In like a 1960s sense I thought, I didn't know it was still a big one. Y'all got a rivalry game nearly every week!
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LSU wasn’t good for a long time. Drought from 1958 until Saban.
Bama wasn’t a rivalry as much until we got good. But I’m a younger man
 
s--k said:
So we have LSU coming off cloud 9 high upset...and an Ole Miss will be missing 113 2020 receptions. Would make life easier if Ole Miss was just like "yeah, we're all in to finish the season we want to win the LSU game". But picking games really isn't easy and the teams always find new curve balls to throw us.
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im not thrilled that capping these games now requires so much detective work and assumptions about who wants to be playing! Shit was hard enough before covid!
 
2daBank said:
im not thrilled that capping these games now requires so much detective work and assumptions about who wants to be playing! Shit was hard enough before covid!
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You would think not having those guys will matter...but there are examples this year when key guys are missing and it doesn't matter. So that makes it more difficult...and the line moves to Ole Miss favored as we find out these two players are out? You would think that might matter for the spread, but instead the spread flips to Ole Miss favored. Weird. So Ole Miss rating doesn't change and people don't seem to care.
 
They don't play this week, but I wanted to post on Auburn's last 4 games offensive yardage, this is some excellent consistency, not great production, still very consistent:

vs Miss State 343 yards
vs Tex A&M 340 yards
vs Alabama 347 yards

and a little higher but still within range
vs Tennessee 385 yards

Not that there is any point from this, just a team hitting their average week to week, not much better not much worse.
 
s--k said:
They don't play this week, but I wanted to post on Auburn's last 4 games offensive yardage, this is some excellent consistency, not great production, still very consistent:

vs Miss State 343 yards
vs Tex A&M 340 yards
vs Alabama 347 yards

and a little higher but still within range
vs Tennessee 385 yards

Not that there is any point from this, just a team hitting their average week to week, not much better not much worse.
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There def something beautiful about that from a capping perspective!
 
B.A.R. said:
What we thinking about this rain from 3pm on in Baton Rouge today?
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My suspicion is that Ole Miss is going to be a little more run heavy anyway without Moore and Yeboah, and their running game is sneaky good. Corral gets the pub and deservedly so but Ole Miss can run the ball. I think the game is still played in the 30s because both defenses suck, but an under wouldn’t surprise me if you want to live dangerously.
 
B.A.R. said:
What we thinking about this rain from 3pm on in Baton Rouge today?
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Was coming here to chat about this. Weather looks ugly, particularly second half. I really want to play the under, but don’t think I’ll be able to stomach watching the game if I do.
 
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