Week 16 Recap and Week 17 Discussion

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

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Alright boys and girls,

We have the MNF game still to go up in Minneapolis but lets get kicking on next week. We'll use this as a bit of a 'what we learned' thread but also a look ahead to next week. I will go ahead and pre-thank @Gandolf for what he will be contributing for us.

Obviously things to look for...

-Playoff spots
-Seeding
-Byes
-Tanking?
-Who is resting

Okay, lets get this Holiday week started right.
 
skanless13 said:
Looka like it will be a RELATIVELY uneventful week 17...
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Actually there's a lot going on regarding seeding. For the AFC Baltimore has home field advantage throughout and the Patriots have the two seed. So both get byes.

But there's a ton of important games. Houston already locked up a playoff spot and they'll be facing the Titans. Titans win and they're in. But, Houston still has something to play for. If they can win and KC loses, they'll get the 3 seed. So I would think they'll be playing hard. Pittsburgh doesn't control their own destiny (terrible loss today) but if they win, and Titans lose, Pittsburgh is in. And my Raiders have a very slim chance. They have to win, Titans lose, Pittsburgh lose, and with a tied record with Titans Raiders would get the final spot due to strength of schedule tiebreaker.

The NFC is crazy. SF currently the 1 seed but plays Seattle for seeding. NO the current 2 seed. Packers battling the Vikings for the division tomorrow and if they win tomorrow, and next week with a SF loss, GB would be 1 seed (Do if for Fondy). Eagles win and in, but could potentially get overtaken by Dallas.

Next week is going to be fun. Can't wait.
 
* I said the Patriots have a bye however they still need to win to get the bye. They play Miami tho at NE so they ‘should’ win.
 
Jeez, just seeing this with Seattle....Chris Carson and CJ Prosise with season-ending injuries yesterday. On top of losing Penny 2 weeks ago.

For a team that thrives on running the ball these are massive injuries. Wow.
 
cogenman said:
* I said the Patriots have a bye however they still need to win to get the bye. They play Miami tho at NE so they ‘should’ win.
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This is interesting, sincerely. NE will/should win. But, those Fins are still fighting and I think they may well cover the line which I see at +16
 
holding Miami wins under 4.5 ticket remaining, all others got settled long ago.

dont think I'm hedging it

But I agree, there are plenty of games that matter week 17!
 
Titans are -6 in Houston. Everyone assuming Texans rest starters? If they win and Chiefs lose they get the 3 seed instead of the 4 which matters (avoid Buffalo R1 and avoid Baltimore R2).

Every year at least a couple teams that "must win" have inflated lines and lose. Who will it be this year?



1577120173477.png
 
aplous said:
Titans are -6 in Houston. Everyone assuming Texans rest starters? If they win and Chiefs lose they get the 3 seed instead of the 4 which matters (avoid Buffalo R1 and avoid Baltimore R2).

Every year at least a couple teams that "must win" have inflated lines and lose. Who will it be this year?



View attachment 44714
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good point re Texans situation. Hell, may take the 6 at home based on this alone
 
Week 17 is like the bowl season. Always need to see who's still motivated and who's just there to see the sights.

Timing of the games matters too. While the league tried to keep the playoff eligible teams in the same time slot to make them all compete, they did the Titans a little favor in that the Chiefs play at 1:00. If they win then Houston is locked down as a #4. What does O'Brien do with Watson and Hopkins? O'Brien played his starters in a meaningless Week 17 loss to the Titans in 2016, but the QB then was Brock Osweiler. Do they go the full 60 against the Titans? O'Brien has publicly stated he has no plans to pull his starters, but what else could he say six days before gameday? I think McCarron plays at least a half if the Chiefs take care of business.

Milestones could come into play too. Barkley needs 89 yards to salvage a 1000 yard rushing season. Ten players need less than 100 yards to get to 1000 yards receiving, including Cmac, Kittle, OBJ, and two Chargers, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler.
 
At first glance I think the Browns thump the Bengals. Atlanta-Tampa Bay total looks too low. Patriots should cover 16. Chiefs should cover 7 1/2. Colts-Jags total looks low. Dogs in NFC East look appealing. Raiders with the hook are appealing.
 
Gandolf said:
Week 17 is like the bowl season. Always need to see who's still motivated and who's just there to see the sights.

Timing of the games matters too. While the league tried to keep the playoff eligible teams in the same time slot to make them all compete, they did the Titans a little favor in that the Chiefs play at 1:00. If they win then Houston is locked down as a #4. What does O'Brien do with Watson and Hopkins? O'Brien played his starters in a meaningless Week 17 loss to the Titans in 2016, but the QB then was Brock Osweiler. Do they go the full 60 against the Titans? O'Brien has publicly stated he has no plans to pull his starters, but what else could he say six days before gameday? I think McCarron plays at least a half if the Chiefs take care of business.

Milestones could come into play too. Barkley needs 89 yards to salvage a 1000 yard rushing season. Ten players need less than 100 yards to get to 1000 yards receiving, including Cmac, Kittle, OBJ, and two Chargers, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler.
Click to expand...
Julio 8 catches for 100 and ~80 yards for 1400
 
Texans can only move up IF Kansas City loses earlier. Houston game is 3pm game, so they will know if they can move up or not by then. If KC wins, then Houston is stuck at #4 win or lose

Only way to play this would be to take Houston at +6 now and hope KC loses, which I dont think happens.
 
It looks like there's gonna be some shitty weather this Sunday in a lot of games.

Might be a good day for unders...
 
Lamar and the studs are sitting for Baltimore.

McDermott says he’s still thinking about it but Bills starters aren’t playing v NYJ.
 
wizardofodd said:
Texans can only move up IF Kansas City loses earlier. Houston game is 3pm game, so they will know if they can move up or not by then. If KC wins, then Houston is stuck at #4 win or lose

Only way to play this would be to take Houston at +6 now and hope KC loses, which I dont think happens.
Click to expand...

You could just hope obrien doesn’t understand how seeding works and plays his guys anyways. 50/50
 
cogenman said:
Would be funny if Philly lost to the Giants but the Cowboys lost their game to the Skins and not get the playoff spot.
Click to expand...

Would be about as nfc east as it gets!! I had said bunch of times it be very Philly to beat Dallas then lose to nyg. Never thought to take it the last logical step and suspect Dallas loses right back!! Lol
 
Like some unders this week. Steelers/ravens looks like a dead under if ravens sitting Lamar.

Jets/bills. Does it matter who playing for what? Fg fest. 15-12

San Fran/Seattle was one of more fortunate overs I cashed the 1st meeting., hardly any offense to speak of to push it up into the 50s. Turnovers created majority the tds, then bunch of Fgs got it to ot! 10 sacks in the game and now Seattle missing tackle along with entire rb committee they started year with. Niners offense much healthier this time so maybe they the better play? Don’t see seattle breaking 20 if they get that.
 
I could see Pittsburgh being that team to choke when they need the win & are playing a team sitting their starters.
 
RG3 and Justice Hill would do some damage against most teams but Pitt D is obviously solid. Can Duck Hodges and Benny Snell move the ball against Ravens JV defense?
 
Duck cost them the BUF game and likely the playoffs, but i don't think the 53-man rosters have enough depth to sit the best players and still be good
 
NYG is the game i'm most interested as they fit the fade the must-win team with a playoff berth on the line and have been playing better lately with all their weapons besides Engram available. PHI off the huge win, but they've been barely winning games for a month now and there's plenty of room for NYG to lose and cover
 
GWarner27 said:
NYG is the game i'm most interested as they fit the fade the must-win team with a playoff berth on the line and have been playing better lately with all their weapons besides Engram available. PHI off the huge win, but they've been barely winning games for a month now and there's plenty of room for NYG to lose and cover
Click to expand...

My concern there is gmen jumped all over Philly just a few weeks back and eagles had to come back and win in ot. I’d rather they were playing someone else without fresh memory of almost getting beat in their heads. Not looking to back Philly by any stretch but think it just a pass for me.
 
cogenman said:
Actually there's a lot going on regarding seeding. For the AFC Baltimore has home field advantage throughout and the Patriots have the two seed. So both get byes.

But there's a ton of important games. Houston already locked up a playoff spot and they'll be facing the Titans. Titans win and they're in. But, Houston still has something to play for. If they can win and KC loses, they'll get the 3 seed. So I would think they'll be playing hard. Pittsburgh doesn't control their own destiny (terrible loss today) but if they win, and Titans lose, Pittsburgh is in. And my Raiders have a very slim chance. They have to win, Titans lose, Pittsburgh lose, and with a tied record with Titans Raiders would get the final spot due to strength of schedule tiebreaker.

The NFC is crazy. SF currently the 1 seed but plays Seattle for seeding. NO the current 2 seed. Packers battling the Vikings for the division tomorrow and if they win tomorrow, and next week with a SF loss, GB would be 1 seed (Do if for Fondy). Eagles win and in, but could potentially get overtaken by Dallas.

Next week is going to be fun. Can't wait.
Click to expand...
I meant as far as which teams are in vs out. I remember some years where there were multiple playoff spots still in question. This year AFC is MOSTLY set. NFC on the other hand....
 
2daBank said:
My concern there is gmen jumped all over Philly just a few weeks back and eagles had to come back and win in ot. I’d rather they were playing someone else without fresh memory of almost getting beat in their heads. Not looking to back Philly by any stretch but think it just a pass for me.
Click to expand...
As an Eagles fan, this game scares the crap out of me.... then again, i was on the Cowgirls big last week....
 
2daBank said:
My concern there is gmen jumped all over Philly just a few weeks back and eagles had to come back and win in ot. I’d rather they were playing someone else without fresh memory of almost getting beat in their heads. Not looking to back Philly by any stretch but think it just a pass for me.
Click to expand...

if you think PHI needs more motivation for this game and a close MNF a few weeks ago will get them to take NYG more seriously then i think i'm already in a great place. I don't think that's the case, but divisional matchups are more of a tossup than anything in this sport. Crowd will be full of PHI, but that's not any different and there's plenty of room to lose and cover
 
GWarner27 said:
if you think PHI needs more motivation for this game and a close MNF a few weeks ago will get them to take NYG more seriously then i think i'm already in a great place. I don't think that's the case, but divisional matchups are more of a tossup than anything in this sport. Crowd will be full of PHI, but that's not any different and there's plenty of room to lose and cover
Click to expand...

More motivation? No. Didn’t say anything resembling that. Looked to me like they figured out how easy it is to score on nyg at some point in that game with guys I dunno if wentz had ever thrown to before. Now he has more familiarity with these guys and seems to have elevated his game since that 2nd half comeback so I wouldnt expect another slow start vs this Swiss cheese d.

Nyg coaching staff is crap so playin another Game so close together wouldn’t figure to favor them. Philly was better second time around against both other div opponents and they figured this team out at halftime, Dunno why it wouldn’t carry over. Maybe playing jones instead of Eli gives them little something but could very well be turnovers. Sure eagles could win and not cover but 4.5 isn’t a big number to catch on a team w 4 wins and who lost by 6 after being spotted a 17-3 halftime lead the 1st time. No chance I’d feel good w nyg+4.5, imo Philly has to play poorly again for it to be less than a td and not sure why I would expect that?
 
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