Week 16 Discussion Thread

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Happy Holidays everyone.

Sunday NFL Christmas Eve is always fun. Leggggo!!

No Thursday game this week, thank goodness but we get two Saturday and two on Monday


Indy at Baltimore sounds about as fun as getting a tooth pulled. Obviously we know who needs to win and who doesn't and the spread reflects as much at -13/41.5 currently. Absolutely no interest for me at all.

Green Bay and Minnesota has no line as of yet.

Detroit travels down to Cincy and they threw a 4/43 at us currently. Obviously Detroit needs to win and the Bengals have quit. This seems way to easy, right? That right there scares me. Lions tt always seems to be a factor and at a projected 23.5 looks doable to me. I would look at ML as well perhaps or as part of a parlay.

The Chargers head back East to face the Jets(7/42.5). This is their 4th game in the East this season, fwiw. This is another must-win vs a team that 'should lose' (cue brewers888) and I am guessing this will be a favorite teaser selection. With Phillip and company I would wait till halftime or live to be honest if betting the side alone.

The Rams, fresh off a trouncing of the Seahawks travel to the Music City(6.5-48.5). Look at this team garnering line value! I will not lie, with both teams having playoff implications I kinda lean Tenny here but they are so weird this year. A win here makes Tenny a pretty safe bet I believe with tiebreakers. The Rams still need to clinch the division and are looking for a home playoff game.

Chicago hosts the Browns (6.5/38) at Soldier. The Browns story is well documented. The Bears are simple, if they stay in game and can control ball they are right in it. Have fun if you want to bet this. I'll personally put an action play on the Browns for the helluva it...prolly ML.

Tampa is done and heads to Carolina. There was a (-9) showing earlier. I would expect that to reach DD's. Panthers TT would be a look perhaps.

Atlanta fresh off the win tonight heads to the Dome to play the Saints. This should be another good one (5.5). The Saints need to win to keep lead over Carolina(tiebreaker) and I as a Lions fan need a Falcons loss here pretty bad. Actually, I think I need Atlanta to lose out.

Denver heads east to Washington in a rematch of a 1980's Super Bowl (3.5/41). No thanks here at all.

Miami, off a terrible showing in Barfalo heads to Arrowhead to face the Chiefs who looked like the Chiefs again last week (10/44). I have personal interest in a KC win here big-time. That is a big number though. It is a game you would expect to get teased to death for sure.

Speaking of Buffalo, they head to New England to play the Pats (13/47.5). The Bills are squarely in the playoff picture and the Pats now have the conference lead but two teams are still right there. Yes, New England defense still is below-average. Depending on the weather, count me in for a Buffalo TT of 17-18 or so. They get to 20 here in my opinion.

On to the 4pm slate...

Jacksonville, with the hottest QB in league right now (lol) head to Santa Clara to play the Jimmy G. Niners(4.5/42.5). He is gonna be a good one, but this defense might give him a dose of reality. No way am I laying points here but I wouldn't be grabbing them either. This is a wait and watch type of game for me. Obviously lots to play for on one side...

The Giants head to KJ-Ville (4/40) and this game gets a stinking 4:25 timeslot. Gross. No thanks on anything here. Maybe over. Sometimes in the last few weeks of crappy years these games turn into shootouts for some reason.

Seattle heads to Big D to play the Cowboys (4.5/47). I believe this is a must-win for Dallas to get the tiebreaker between the two teams because as it sits now Seattle has 'strength of victory' tiebreak. Obviously that can change. Zeke is back. This game sucks to bet. Turn it on mute as well as whoever calls this game will be blowing both teams both ways till Christmas Morning.

Pittsburgh heads to Houston (10/44) with no A.B. Plenty to play for as they need to stay ahead of the Jags for the bye week and still can get homefield throughout, perhaps. No idea how to play this one. They might have some clarity after Sundays action though.

Christmas night closes out the week and most fantasy seasons with Oakland at Philly. Oakland is done, that was the last straw. The Eagles (9/47) won a wild one in New Jersey last week. HFA throughout is still at stake here for the Iggles. It is all about how much they pour it on and if that defense is ready to play some actual defense after the last few weeks.

Alright. Lets talk shop...
 
I am sure I missed some scenarios...

I will say, the irony of Det losing a Tiebreaker to the Falcons after that match up has not been lost on me...
 
B.A.R. said:
..Seattle heads to Big D to play the Cowboys (4.5/47). I believe this is a must-win for Dallas to get the tiebreaker between the two teams because as it sits now Seattle has 'strength of victory' tiebreak. Obviously that can change. Zeke is back. This game sucks to bet. Turn it on mute as well as whoever calls this game will be blowing both teams both ways till Christmas Morning
Click to expand...

Of course Joe Buck will be blowing things but I’m certain it won’t be the Cowboys.
 
The Jets are probably going to beat the Chargers just to torture me and take them out of any chance to move up for Mayfield.
 
You would think that Cleveland has a good shot to avoid 0-16 with this matchup vs the Bears. I like the ML on this one.
 
Saints are really 5' faves?

Wow........I like my boys, but not sure I can bet that one....at least not a Saints ticket

But the guys in LV must be high on the Dats
 
brewers888 said:
The Jets are probably going to beat the Chargers just to torture me and take them out of any chance to move up for Mayfield.
Click to expand...

The chargers just need to win out and have the titans lose to teams they should lose to and they could get in. Which is exactly why losing to Bryce Petty is the most chargers thing to do here ever.
 
Big12 QBs don't have much of a great history in the NFL that's for sure, like the guy's attitude tho
 
twinkie13 said:
Like, BAKER MAYFIELD?

For a what position in the NFL? QB?
Click to expand...

Mayfield is very similar to Manziel.

Great arm and can scramble a lot.

I don't see him being a good fit in the NFL-
He scrambles too much and can't set his feet and play qb.

He isn't a pocket passer. Plus Oklahoma offense is so easy. All bubble screens and easy throws to tight ends and long deep ones off play action.

Imo Mayfield isn't Athletuc or big enough. M
How is mayfield any better than Manziel was?
 
D-Woww said:
Also brewers im with you on baker. Hes gonna be a stud. Lots of ppl like twink hating on him, but the kid is Brees 2.0
Click to expand...

He has Moxy and is confident. Has a good arm.

But he's not Brees. Brees has excellent footwork and pocket discipline.

Mayfield is another Russel Wilson in the pocket. Buys time and then finds open receivers.

I think mayfield is like mariotta a college qb that isn't good enough for the NFL.
 
I think the consensus is that Miami might pack it in and Chiefs romp, but their road to the playoffs is actually easier than it would seem

1. Pats beat Bills
2. Tennessee loses last 2
3. Oakland and LA Chargers both lose one
4. Miami wins both

The toughest part there is winning Sunday and Chargers losing to either Jets or Raiders.... So i think 10 is too many
 
Jags have been bad travelers this year, losing @ the Jets after London and @ Arizona

Also wondering if there's some psychological sandwich effect, having just clinched first playoff appearance in 10 years, being favored this week with hated rival Titans on deck and surely eager to avenge a bad home loss.
 
Saying what does Mayfield have that Manziel didn't is a crazy question imo, because he has EXACTLY what Manziel didn't. Lets remember, Manziel didn't play for awhile and suck. He came into the NFL, partied, did drugs, didn't study the playbook, took it all for granted, and when the team was forced to play him a few times, he basically played pick up ball.

Mayfield is the exact opposite. He is a warrior and a leader. He will learn the playbook and work hard. I do hear the kid likes to have fun, but not in lieu of football like Manziel, who was entitled as shit.

So to say Mayfield = Manziel is not fair. I think a better way to put it is Mayfield could be what people hoped Manziel was going to be.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Jags have been bad travelers this year, losing @ the Jets after London and @ Arizona

Also wondering if there's some psychological sandwich effect, having just clinched first playoff appearance in 10 years, being favored this week with hated rival Titans on deck and surely eager to avenge a bad home loss.
Click to expand...

makes sense for sure. also bortles is getting hyped now so it would make sense for him to revert to old Blake. Man, that Tennesee offense is just so bad though, hard to see them able to move the ball. Might be a pass for me.
 
D-Woww said:
Saying what does Mayfield have that Manziel didn't is a crazy question imo, because he has EXACTLY what Manziel didn't. Lets remember, Manziel didn't play for awhile and suck. He came into the NFL, partied, did drugs, didn't study the playbook, took it all for granted, and when the team was forced to play him a few times, he basically played pick up ball.

Mayfield is the exact opposite. He is a warrior and a leader. He will learn the playbook and work hard. I do hear the kid likes to have fun, but not in lieu of football like Manziel, who was entitled as shit.

So to say Mayfield = Manziel is not fair. I think a better way to put it is Mayfield could be what people hoped Manziel was going to be.
Click to expand...

Sounds like the same analysis you used when you anointed RGIII with the crown.
 
D-Woww said:
The chargers just need to win out and have the titans lose to teams they should lose to and they could get in. Which is exactly why losing to Bryce Petty is the most chargers thing to do here ever.
Click to expand...

I really hope the Chargers come through but this is the type of game that Rivers always seems to lose and the Jets have been hellbent all season on ruining their draft position. The Jets could always guarantee a loss by starting Hackenberg but they should have done that from week 1.
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
Mayfield is very similar to Manziel.

Great arm and can scramble a lot.

I don't see him being a good fit in the NFL-
He scrambles too much and can't set his feet and play qb.

He isn't a pocket passer. Plus Oklahoma offense is so easy. All bubble screens and easy throws to tight ends and long deep ones off play action.

Imo Mayfield isn't Athletuc or big enough. M
How is mayfield any better than Manziel was?
Click to expand...

Mayfield can make all the throws and has shown it all year. He makes all the tight throws vs a guy like Mason Rudolph who needs a player to be wide open in order to hit him. This guy is more Brees and Wilson than Manziel.
 
I do like mayfield arm. Has like a third base arm.

I'm liking his game. My only question is can he stand in the pocket patiently and progress through his reads.

I hope he can. He possesses a lot of things you want in a qb. He can lead.

It's always tough to see how a player translated to the pros.
However I wish him luck.

I like the players who really want to win and love football.

This guy is s good competitor.
 
Brees comparison is tough because Brees never really runs around and scrambles.
He like Brady strip up in the pocket.

Mayfield if you want a pro comparison I would say is most like ??????

Is he like Trubisky? Fairly good athlete with passing ability.?

Or is he like Tyrod Taylor in the pros?
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
Brees comparison is tough because Brees never really runs around and scrambles.
He like Brady strip up in the pocket.

Mayfield if you want a pro comparison I would say is most like ??????

Is he like Trubisky? Fairly good athlete with passing ability.?

Or is he like Tyrod Taylor in the pros?
Click to expand...

To me he is similar to Brees and Wilson. I think Mayfield is way better than Trubisky who I didn't like in college or Taylor who shouldn't be starting in the league.
 
brewers888 said:
To me he is similar to Brees and Wilson. I think Mayfield is way better than Trubisky who I didn't like in college or Taylor who shouldn't be starting in the league.
Click to expand...

He does seem to have a lot of the same style as Wilson. Not sure he is as fast or quick as Wikson but his arm strength to me his pretty strong-

I saw one play which showed me how strong. He was standing flat footed and fired a 50 yard pass in stride without really getting his body into the throw - I was impressed by that throw
 
Brewer I personally believe there hasn't really been anyone on Drew Brees level.

Brees has world class accuracy. He is one of the best passers and a 6 feet.

Warner was the last guy who was like Brees .

I just don't see anyone as good as Brees.

Dude is likely one of the best pure passers in the history.
 
Is Darnold the real deal?


Something tells me is overrated.


I don't see anything he does at an Elite level.


Darnold does some things well but nothing amazing.
Not the best runner or passer.
 
D-Woww said:
makes sense for sure. also bortles is getting hyped now so it would make sense for him to revert to old Blake. Man, that Tennesee offense is just so bad though, hard to see them able to move the ball. Might be a pass for me.
Click to expand...

Honestly (you can read my preview article before the season) I said it, Bortles had an amazing year 2 years ago, it's not like he aged 20 years, he just for some reason developed a lot of atrocious issues with his throwing mechanics. He spent much of the summer in some kind of camp to work on that. I haven't broken down film but I assume that he is making great strides in fixing that issue. But yeah hopefully he isn't watching or reading any rat poison about himself
 
Bortles is amazing.

Watch what he did at central Florida.

He got better each game.

Hard to say he's not getting better every week

He's big strong and smart.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Jags have been bad travelers this year, losing @ the Jets after London and @ Arizona
Click to expand...

What in the world are you talking about? 4-2 otr is solid in the nfl.... they lost off a london trip and the 2nd b2b road game across the country- two of the worst situations in the nfl. The other 4 games?

won by 22 @Houston

won by 21 @ Pitt

won by 27 @ Indy

won by 12 @ clev

Jax or no play for me here even though Garrop has been awesome to watch lately. Jax still very underrated as a team and good teams don't lose games like this down the stretch.
 
Lexington 125 said:
What in the world are you talking about? 4-2 otr is solid in the nfl.... they lost off a london trip and the 2nd b2b road game across the country- two of the worst situations in the nfl. The other 4 games?

won by 22 @Houston

won by 21 @ Pitt

won by 27 @ Indy

won by 12 @ clev

Jax or no play for me here even though Garrop has been awesome to watch lately. Jax still very underrated as a team and good teams don't lose games like this down the stretch.
Click to expand...


Ya I meant special traveling situations like dealing with London and West Coast
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
He has Moxy and is confident. Has a good arm.

But he's not Brees. Brees has excellent footwork and pocket discipline.

Mayfield is another Russel Wilson in the pocket. Buys time and then finds open receivers.

I think mayfield is like mariotta a college qb that isn't good enough for the NFL.
Click to expand...
THIS

Baker aint Brees.....not even close
 
brees developed that stuff in his first few years in the league. nobody is going to come into the league as a fully formed brees, that would be ridiculous and that player would be the best prospect of all time. but with the skillset he has, if he works on footwork, that is the kind of QB he can develop into.
 
Quick thoughts since BAR needs something to bet on...

IND/BAL - ugh. I wouldn't touch this game with someone else's dick

MIN/GB - Pack back to Hundley. Vikes should win but its a terrible number in a cold Lambeau. Lean Pack plus the points. A 10 might make me inclined to bet.

DET/CIN - Numbers say Cincy but they look so utterly defeated. There is an angle that says back a team that was humiliated last week but if that worked, they would've shown some life in Minny. Marvelous Marv is packing it in, the jungle should be half full and I just don't see the Bengals putting up a fight. OTOH I don't like betting the Leos away from the domeNo Play here.

LAC/NYJ - Chargers can and should win but Bryce looked better than most expected last week and Bowles seems to manage to motivate this team despite the fact they're going nowhere. No Play here

LAR/TEN - Give me the tits plus the 7 points all day here as well as under 48 and parlay them together for a semi-correlated parlay. This is my only big game this week. Rams are not as good as they looked against a collapsing Seattle team last week and have had a tough travel schedule.

CLE/CHI - somebody has to win this but it won't be me. Probably value on Cleveland at this number but why on earth would you bet it? Spend the money on a hooker instead. Putting money on Kizer So-So & co. is not wise.

TB/CAR - Tampa was beat up last week and now they are really beat up. They're barely fielding a defense this week. Last week was their superbowl and they lost. Panthers or nothing but its a big number for a low-scoring Pathers team. And what to make of the distractions around the owner? Cam had a mini-tantrum this week I've heard and he's the type of guy who can get off track by off-field nonsense so no play here for me.

ATL/NO - Love New Orleans in this spot. Revenge for the loss in ATL in which Brees played like crap and threw an int on their final drive. The dome will be hoppin' and Brees will make amends. New Orleans -5.5 big for me. I don't like that number but its less important in a game with a total of 53.

DEN/WAS - The Skins are done. They haven't played a quality game in some time and they have no business being a 3.5 point fav here. Meanwhile, Denver's defense is back to looking like...well...Denver's defense. Brock Lobster will never be great but he is better than the alternative and I think they can stay inside the number in a low-scoring game or even win SU. Denver +3.5 for a unit.

MIA/KC - KC should win and their offense has looked so much better over the past 3 games but not interested at this number. Miami is a lame duck though and even though they aren't mathematically eliminated they probably just want the season to end at this point. Its not like Jay Gutless is taking anyone to a SB.

BUF/NE - Strong lean to Buffalo, especially if it were to get to 13. NE off a tough road slate and a big win while the Billygoats have been at home for 3 straight. But betting against the Pats in the Brady/Belichek era has not been profitable often. I believe they are something like >60% ATS. Pass.

JAX/SF - Strong lean to SF +4 as they continue to look better and better with Jimmy G getting comfortable in the offense. Also they may actually have some decent fan support for the first time in a while. Jags are rolling but I think this one will be closer than many expect. 1Q has gone under 7.5 for the last 7 Jags games straight and I have been on it for the past 3 but I am getting off the train this week as Bortles has shown some serious improvement. Still though SF has gone under than number 10 of 14 games this season so there is likely still value there up to -150.

NYG/ARZ - Stanton? No thanks. Giants? No thanks. No play.

SEA/DAL - Two teams headed in opposite directions here. Seattle is done. They have no defense and their o-line is looking shabby again after they had a few decent games. Basically all they have left is Wilson and a few offensive playmakers. Dallas OTOH is getting Zeke back and is smelling playoffs. I took Dallas -4.5 for a unit.

PIT/HOU - Strong lean to the Texans here after their drubbing last week. Big Benny on the road is a different animal and now he has no AB either. I think this one will stay within 10. Waiting out the line to see if I get a better number on Monday courtesy of the chasers. Parlaying Houston to the under for another semi-correlated parlay has definite value also.

OAK/PHI - Motivation for Oakland changes drastically depending on what happens Sunday. They could either be all-but-eliminated or still have a chance at making the playoffs come kickoff. No play here that I see although there might be some value on the under.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Jags have been bad travelers this year, losing @ the Jets after London and @ Arizona

Also wondering if there's some psychological sandwich effect, having just clinched first playoff appearance in 10 years, being favored this week with hated rival Titans on deck and surely eager to avenge a bad home loss.
Click to expand...

JAX are playing for a 1st round bye - win both and PIT lose one. They hold the tie-breaker over PIT. PIT won;t lose week 17, but this week are coming off 3 big weeks - NE in a heart breaker, bitter and stupid CIN game and usual tough BAL game. Could be a let down this week and have their best player out

However, if JAX lose on Sunday PIT cannot move off the 2 seed, so they could go feet up for Mondays game
 
PHI are still decent value in futures. Foles isn't legless, Goff and Keenan show what they can do now they are no longer Fisher'd
 
Patriots + Steelers absolutely fade-worthy after their superbowl last week and now being so highly favored.

Bengals fade train.

Vikings, Ravens, Panthers ML combo looks good to me. Maybe add Chiefs and Bears for play money.

Fading Jags on west coast with revenge game on deck.
 
Alan Tongue said:
JAX are playing for a 1st round bye - win both and PIT lose one. They hold the tie-breaker over PIT. PIT won;t lose week 17, but this week are coming off 3 big weeks - NE in a heart breaker, bitter and stupid CIN game and usual tough BAL game. Could be a let down this week and have their best player out

However, if JAX lose on Sunday PIT cannot move off the 2 seed, so they could go feet up for Mondays game
Click to expand...
They could still be 1 seed in the unlikely event that NE lost one of their last two.
 
Bengals- I think they beat the brakes off the Lions- everyone lining up to fade, Burfict back changes the whole defense, last game at home.... I could see them putting together a solid physical defensive effort and AJ getting free for a big game. Mixon also a go so honestly I think the tt o20.5 is doable too though how deep do I want to play Cincy. Team was a mess all season but I don't think this is the spot to fade....
 
Cincy line climbing too ml up to +158


Chargers/Jets over- missed the 42 but the Jets have been in games all season long. Petty a downgrade for sure but an effective run game (with all 3 expected to go) should open things up and Robbie is the truth. SD without Liuget & Perryman, already trash vs the run. Jets D banged up and I would think Rivers has a rebound from last week's 2ndh debacle. No more Henry but SD has plenty of weapons.
 
I really want to hit the Rams/Titans over... I think the Titans defense is a sham, the Rams offense is STILL highly underrated. Titans secondary banged up Logan Ryan playing on a bum ankle. Titans haven't done squat offensively lately but put up 23+ at home every game. This could be the highest scoring game on deck......

BUT.... I hate playing an over where one of the best assets (Zuerlein) is out and the K game is a big question mark.
 
I get the kicker deal, no clue how they respond on a stage. All these guys can kick 60 yarders in practice at this point but never know how it translates to game day. Missed xp gonna decide a Super Bowl sooner rather than later.
 
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