Week 15 Cont....Write Ups
Thanks Alex:
Week 15
MAC = Margin Against Close: Metric measures how a team performed against the closing number.
Teams entering the week with a MAC of -40> AND did not cover prior week:
15-7 ATS
Teams entering the week with a MAC of +40> AND covered prior week:
13-6 ATS
*ATS tracking starts in week 5, when enough data is available for system to run.
Week 14 candidates: MAC of -40>: NO (-63.5), WAS (-59)
Week 14 candidates: MAC of +40> (listed teams should be FADED): BUF (+44), STL (W) (+91.5), NE (+46)
**Wash is a repeat MAC play on as they were ripped 24-0 by STL, who is now a repeat fade against as they have covered 4 straight with a monster +91.5 MAC. NE not a fade last week, but with a cover on Sunday night, and now sporting a +46 MAC NE on the list.
Oakland @ KC – 10 41.5
REF: Jerome Boger - The games he has taken have been mostly blowouts, with only the Week 9 game between the
Rams and
49ers being decided by fewer than 8 points. Blow out week 12 Phila ov Tenny, wk 13 Buffalo blowout over Cleveland, Wk4 Minny wind 30-24 in OT, not a blowout, BUT marks Bogers’ crew THIRD straight game over their wk 1-9 avg T of 44 points.
Teams met in week 12. Oak posted a 24-20 win. +11 mac for Oak, -11 ,mac for KC. KC -28 mac since that game sporting an 0-3 ATS record over that time.
OAK:
Was last week their super bowl? Game against hated neighbor. Dumped Gatorade on Soprano after game.
Raiders 19-6 ATS as road underdogs against division opponent.
[Oakland] NFL Team off win as home dog: 234-319-17 ATS (42% since 1994)
Oak YTD: 30[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL in Yard Diff YTD – 26[SUP]th[/SUP] in L5, BUT defense is 10[SUP]th[/SUP] in Diff yard/game L5 compared to 16[SUP]th[/SUP] YTD
Oak remains 32[SUP]nd[/SUP] in the league in offensive Yards/game both YTD and L5.
Oak winners of 2 straight at home.
Oak mac -16.5 L4. Take out STL game, and team has a +36.5 mac. Last week 1 pushed Oak 1 spot up in the PR from 29[SUP]th[/SUP] to 28[SUP]th[/SUP].
KC: Not a great spot for KC
Chiefs have covered only 2 of last 15 hosting Raiders
KC as division favorites: 2-14 ATS
Chiefs as home favorite: 8-20 ATS
KC favored by over a TD: 22-1 SU (17-6 ATS)
KC still no TD passes to a WR this year.
KC has not allowed a 300 yard passer all year. Doubt that will be threatened this week.
Wk 12 meeting, KC allowed 352 yards in total offense to Oak. 179 on the ground.
Wk 12 meeting, stats were even, Alex Smith threw for 217 yards, which is a big number for him.
KC 15[SUP]th[/SUP] in league in yardage diff YTD, BUT drop to 29[SUP]th[/SUP] in last 5.
Kc 8[SUP]th[/SUP] in Def Yard/game YTD, DROPS TO 24[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL last 5.
KC 29[SUP]th[/SUP] in yard Diff L5, 20[SUP]th[/SUP] in the NFL YTD.
KC mac -25 L4. 0-3 ATS last 3. NET PR is season worst 0.1 above league average. Last 5 team PR is -2.4 vs league average.
Conclusion: KC is regressing as a football team. Their last 5 have been against: Buff, Sea, Oak, Den, and AZ, so the drop in defense from 8[SUP]th[/SUP] best in the league in yards/game to 24[SUP]th[/SUP], is significant. Team already has one of the worst offenses in the league. Blowing teams out if going to be difficult. At 10 points, my numbers say the market is over valuing the Chiefs. If you think they are “due” to bounce back, keep in mind that the only thing that is “due” is a pregnant woman.
Lean UNDER in this game, or depending on price Oak team total. Oak at +10 or better is a consideration.
Jax @ Balt -14 45
REF: Tony Corrente – Slight dog edge showed up again last week w/ Pitt. Avg T =47. AMOV has been double digits in L5.
JAX:
Jags: 4-10 ATS last 14
Denard Robinson OUT for season. Back to Toby, but expect some more of Storm Johnson
Defense has been on a roller coaster this season:
Yards per play allowed shown below:
League avg = 5.675 shown by broken line.
Jax playing hard every week.
Jax -4.5 mac L4. First time this season Jax not at the bottom of the YTD PR or L5 PR. Tenny has taken over that position. Jax PR 6 pts worse than avg YTD, but only 4.7 worse than avg L5. 1-4-1 AT last 6. Haven’t had a negative DD mac since wk 3. (-21).
BALT:
Balt of big win in Miami (erased 10 pt deficit)
Balt needs wins, emotion from playing w/out key defenders likely to take tool soon.
Balt w/ Hou and Cle on deck.
Balt of wins over Mia, No, Sd.
Poss let down spot for Balt.
Jernigan has filled in nicely for Ngata, yet to earn a RED PFF grade this season.
Only 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] time in L20 games that Balt has been DD favorite.
Balt allowing has only been sacked 7 times in their last 5.
Balt +18.5 mac L4, +14.5 since wk 11 bye. Balt 5.64 PR on season, +4.8 pts better than avg team. PR drops 1.9 NET YTD L5.
Conclusion: 14 pts is a bit of an overlay IMO. We know Jax is not going to lie down, and the pressure is on Balt. W/ Jax AMOV of on the road at -12. The line will likely drop. Balt O-line to be tested against Ryan Davis and Red Bryant for Jax. If you like Jax, the under would seem to go hand in hand. One to consider, but better on the board.
Pitt @ Atl -2 55.5 (open PK)
REF: Clete Blakeman- Weeks 1-9
crew held third lowest avg penalties per game = 4[SUP]th[/SUP] lowest pts/game amongst refs. Avg T = 44. UNDER 3-1 L4. In 2014, Blakeman crew has called +8.16 % penalties per game more on the home team than the away team. 56% of all penalties have been called on home team. Blakemen did Atl @ Tampa game on 11/9. ATL won 27-17, had 5 penalties called on them, compared to 17 for TB. Line move in that game went from TB -1 at open to ATL -3 at close.
Early line (before last week’s games): Falcons -1.5 (westgate)
ATL:
3-2 L5 SU and 3-2 ATS. Gb game last week only game In that stretch where the line was greater than 3 either way.
Atlanta’s last 23 games against teams other than Tampa Bay
they’ve won only 5 times.
Atlanta bad passing D that’s played against below average passing teams
Falcons outscored 111 to 57 in 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter (last eleven games)
Atlanta out of division this season: 1-8 SU
Atl L5 allowing 114.8 rushing yds per game (19[SUP]th[/SUP] in league).
ATL D allowing 24 Fd’s per game L5, 31[SUP]st[/SUP] in NFL.
ATL 32 in D yards/game YTD. No improvement over L5.
Alt Yard Diff 19[SUP]th[/SUP] in league L5, 26[SUP]th[/SUP] in league L5.
Julio Jones to be limited on Sunday.
ATL a 6.5 AMOV on the season.
Atl +13.5 mac L5, moved YTD mac to +3.5. ATL covered 4/5 since bye week and sport a +20.5 mac since bye, compared to a -23.5 mac prior to the bye. ATL NET YTD PR of -1.059 us 2.7 pts worse than the league avg. Team is a net +3.5 PR over L5. Showing improvement.
PITT:
Steelers on road: 11-21 ATS streak
Steelers as road favorite: 3-11 ATS
Pitt playing 4[SUP]th[/SUP] road game in L5. –AMOV L5 = 2.84
Pitt winning road they shouldn’t, and losing home games jn games they are favored.
Pitt KC and Cincy on deck.
Pitt 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] in NFL in yards/game YTD, and 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] over L5.
Pitt 4[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL in yardage diif. L5.
Pitt -6 mac L4. Prior last 4, team was 3-0 ATS w/ a mac of +43.5. Pitt NET PR 1 pt better than avg on season. Over L5 Pitt +4.7 PR vs avg, and +2.1 NET PR L5 vs YTD.
Conclusion: Power numbers say that ATL is a play. Given the inconsistent way the Steelers play, a case can be made for ATL. Last wks loss hurts, but they showed a no quit attitude. Most importantly, a 4-0 division record leaves it in great shape if the division crown comes down to tiebreakers. All Atlanta would have to do is beat the Saints in Week 16 to automatically hold a trump card over any division rival should records come out equal. In theory, Atlanta could make the playoffs by only beating teams in the NFC South, and losing to everyone else.
ATL is a strong consideration at +3 or better.
Hou @ Ind -6.5 49
REF: Gene Steratore – Since week 10, we have seen a sharp drop in the crews avg total of 49.2
HOU:
Colts have put up big numbers against bad teams, when playing at home. Hou NOT a bad team.
Hou PR over L5 has then 4 pts better than an avg NFL team, including Cin, Balt, Det, Phila, to name a few.
Hou still has Fitzpatrick at QB, and no significant increase or decrease on offense.
Hou 4-3 L4. Wins vs: Tenny (2), Jax, and Cle.
Hou should be able to run ball. Indy 25[SUP]th[/SUP] in league in run defense, L5.
Hou motivated off 2 straight wins? Chance to still make playoffs?
Hou +36 mac L4. +65.5 on season. Still undervalued. Hou YTD – avg team in PR, L5, outperforming YTD NET PR # by +2.3.
IND:
Colts last 3 wins against Cleveland (should have lost), Jax , and Wash.
Much better at home over Luck’s career (reg season and playoffs)
Won 19-5 SU (17-7 ATS) at home; 13-11 SU on road (13-11 ATS)
Andrew Luck: 29-16 ATS during regular season in his career
Colts in December: 11-4 ATS
Colts dominate in division: 11 STRAIGHT covers against the spread
QB Luck led Colts in rushing last week: 5 carries for 37 yards
Colts with -8.5 mac L4 LR is +4.1 above league, avg and has remained strong L5 at +4.9 above league avg.
Conclusion: Ind was lucky to win last game. Game holds a lot of meaning to Houston. I think Hou is a consideration at +7 or better.
Cincy @ Cle -2.5 43.5
REF: Walter Anderson – No crew throws more flags than Anderson’s crew. They avg 16 per game. Total avg 45
CLE:
Going to Manziel – line moved on news – maybe too much?
Expect some fire for team for at least 1 game.
Browns 1 Offensive TD in last 29 drives.
Steelers scored final 24 points of game vs. Bengals last week (all in 4th Q)
Cleveland defense improving: Def improving – now 7[SUP]th[/SUP] in the NFL in def yard/game, up from 20[SUP]th[/SUP] YTD.
Offense dropping, but not as bad as they you think: 13[SUP]th[/SUP] in league – yards per game. Now 14[SUP]th[/SUP] (L5).
Cleveland actually 7[SUP]th[/SUP] in yardage diff.
Pitt scored 24 pts in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] qtr alone.
Game means everything to Cleveland. Do they have enough?
Cle -25 mac L5. Worst 4 game stretch mac-wise of the season. PR of -0.452 is 1.2 pts worse than the avg NFL team. Last 5 NFL PR sitting at 0.3, but this only TWO spots worse than the avg team over than span. Cleveland has been the definition of average all season.
CINCY:
Cincy at 8-4-1 – not favored to win the division.
Big revenge spot for Cincy. Last meeting 24-3 Cle win on TNF, Bengals embarrassed.
Dalton has been much better since that game, and AJ Green cannot be covered.
Cincy has had ugly numbers all season: 25[SUP]th[/SUP] in league in yard diff. L5 they have jumped to 17.
Looking at stats alone, you would think Cincy is 4-8-1, not 8-4-1.
Jeremy Hill will carry the load again today. Hill +2.2 PFF grade since wk 9. Bernard has LOST his job. Per the time share they tried w/ Hill and Bernard, Hue Jackson “It’s not giving me the results I want.”
Cincy +5.5 mac L4. L2 (@Pitt (-24 and -5 mac in 14-13 win at TB). Cincy NET YD PR is -1.6 below league avg. Over L5 they have seen a +1.08 overall PR rating, and have moved slightly ahead of the NFL avg.
Conclusion: Is the line move too extreme? We are after all, talking about a rookie QB making his first start. Cincy “D” is 11[SUP]th[/SUP] in sacks per game over their L5. They allow 115 yards per game on the ground over their last 5. Neither team is very good, but I would play either team at +3 or better.
So if (when?) the 3 pops on Cincy, they will are likely to be a bet.
Mia @ New England – 9 48 (opened -8)
REF: Bill Vinovich: More favorable to road teams, and that trend has been reinforced during this season. His low-penalty tendencies have been consistent throughout his career, so expect more low-scoring games going forward. Last week he did Sea/Philly. Game went UNDER by 9 points.
MIA:
Run defense has worn down as season has gone on. L5 Mia allowed 155.6 yards per game, good for 28[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league. This is down from season rating of 22[SUP]nd[/SUP]. Miami has given up 661 rushing yards its last three games!
Mia 28[SUP]th[/SUP] in yard diff L5. 15[SUP]th[/SUP] in the NFL ytd.
Mia #2 in Yards/Pass allowed YTD. However, Mia D down to 6.38 YPP Last 5. League Avg 6.75.
What happened to Mia’s D? Louis Delmas now on IR, and LB core is decimated. For LB’s either out or doubtful today.
Mia mac -15 L4. Mia PR is +2 vs NFL avg, and -1.3 L5 against avg NFL team. Mia -0.7 NET PR L5 worst rating of the year.
NE:
Looks like a game where NE may lineup w/ 6 Oline and run the ball.
Patriots outgained Chargers by 181 yards last week – and 10 minutes of possession time.
Revenge spot for Miami from week 1 loss.
NE 5[SUP]th[/SUP] in yards/game L5, 6[SUP]th[/SUP] in yard/diff L5, BUT 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] in def/yard per play.
Two teams going in opposite directions?
Ne mac +46 L4, and +135 since wk5. Lead NFL in with a 101.5 mac, which considering how public teams are typically shaded by the oddsmakers, this is a crazy #. NE tops my PR and is 7.5 pts better than the avg NFL team (neutral field). NE 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in PR L5 behind GB and Seattle.
Conclusion: Miami is a MAC play under the MAC system that is 13-6 ATS this season. Miami season on line, and if a “10” pops then there is no doubt
MIAM is a play. At -9, Miami a good teaser candidate, since you cross 10,13, and 14. At 10, a teaser makes no sense. Looking at it from a mac perspective, the odds makers have a poor handle on these teams.
Tampa @ Carolina -3 41 –
Pass for me.
Was @ NyG -7 46
No interest in this game
, but WASH is a MAC play, and at +7 WASH will be a bet if that numbers becomes available.
Was -59 mac L4.
Giants totals tend to go over in games vs bad teams.
That’s it for me this week. I may make more plays, but I don’t have time for other write-ups. Will add info on games I bet.
One note on SF/Sea: This is no longer a rivalry. The 49ers are not a good football team anymore, and it has nothing to do w/ last week's result against Oakland. For all the kudos heaped on Chris Boreland, he cannot replace the locker presence of Pat Willis. IMO, the owner, and is idiotic idea to offer to trade Harbaugh to the Colts started this. First off all, the idea of trading a coach shows how little a owner understands about the NFL.
Put dirt on the Niners. They are done.
