Week 15 Discussion

C-MAN

C-MAN

Pretty much a regular
Lets get the discussion started early this week. At first glance, one of my favorite cards of the year, which means I'm sure to have too many plays. Mostly road dogs (TB, Det, Indy, etc) that caught my eye so will have to narrow the plays a bit.

LA/Sea - another shitty Thur night game. Don't have a strong opinion either way here. Obviously LA sucks, and who knows what effect the coaching change will have. Goff has been unimpressive and the defense not so good. But really, is Seattle good enough to be laying 2TD to anyone this year? They are 8-4-1 and have only 2 wins by this margin (vs SF and Car). By comparison, last season 7 or their 10 wins were by 14+ pts. They are good, but certainly not dominant. Coming off blowout loss though, and already lost @LA so perhaps extra motivation here. Looking at last 10 meetings between these teams and Sea has only covered this number twice. Can't see myself laying the points, but will keep an open mind and try to find another way to play it. Sea TTo possibly?
 
Mia/NYJ - the return of Sat night football...wonder how many viewers will be watching this shit show. No Tannehill and likely no Forte. Jets defense was gashed by C Hyde last week - could see Ajayi doing the same after a couple of subpar games by him. Petty did some good things in the 2H last week and has good chemistry with Anderson, but SF defense is awful. Mia really needs this game to keep playoff hopes alive as they finish up @Buff and vs NE. Moore a decent backup with considerable experience. Lean Mia.
 
C-Man: Concerning Goff, I do not know what he will turn into as a QB but imo right now I have serious doubts. I am serious about this, it amazed me on "Hard Knocks" that anybody with half a brain, much less a Cal grad, did not know that the sun rose in the East & set in the West every day. In fact, it would shock me that your average 13 yr old did not have this information simply by paying attention and assimilating what they see/hear over the course of their short life, not to mention their education. To me, and I might be old-fashioned, it seems like this is simple basic knowledge.

"Who cares?" is a legitimate response. My response is that being a QB, or a good one, in NFL does require some intellect to read defenses, assimilate information and adapt and check-out of plays. I say a good clue that a QB may not be able to do this is his failure to figure out from his daily life where East/West are and where sun rises and sets on a daily basis.

Then we see that LA does not have him start/play until late in season and what we see so far has not been impressive or promising. Of course, its the Rams under Fisher and he is a rookie, so a final judgment is premature. But, this is my initial reaction to a Goff led Rams
 
Sea moved from 14 to 16 quickly and they will probably crush rams, but I doubt they make huge playoff run, esp after losing Thomas, D aint the same
 
Can't figure out the Seahawks, they just don't have "it" this year though, imo.

Don't the Rams play the Seahawks tough? Yes, it was an atrocity of a game last week for them but the coach change could shake them awake and they respond. I just can't back them though. But also can't back this Seattle O laying 2 td's +...stay away game or play the total
 
Laying 15 points in a game that the Rams often win given recent history, along with coach just fired angle seems foolish. National TV game creates some pride imo, the LOS mismatch when Seattle has the ball alone makes this worth taking the points. Under may be a better play, not sure who gets to 20 points in this one.
 
There haven't been many favorites all season as big as some of this week's lines, feels like books will rake. People been starving to lay big points and throw some teasers up, one of these big dogs will win or come damn close, at least one of them is certainly covering both halves.
 
BTW, getting 6 points against Brock Osweiler in a division game off a huge win is really just a fantastic holiday gift.
 
raems said:
BTW, getting 6 points against Brock Osweiler in a division game off a huge win is really just a fantastic holiday gift.
Click to expand...

I see your point about fading that situation but not sure I care to back Jax this late in the season OTR.
 
I see what you are saying about Brock laying 6, but I would not consider the Jags getting points against anyone to be a gift this season. The team was somewhat competitive last 2 games at home, but still lost both. With the high hopes they had coming into the season and being dead last in the division, you have to think they just want the season to be over. Flying halfway (or more) across the county to play a team with talent everywhere except QB, who is 5-1 at home (beating some pretty decent teams) and fighting for a playoff spot - it is Hou or nobody for me in that game.
 
I would expect Sea's offense to bounce back, which is why I am waiting to see their TT. Don't trust the D without Thomas, but no faith in Rams offense either. If the Rams are 12, Sea would be 26/27 range.
 
C-MAN said:
Mia/NYJ - the return of Sat night football...wonder how many viewers will be watching this shit show. No Tannehill and likely no Forte. Jets defense was gashed by C Hyde last week - could see Ajayi doing the same after a couple of subpar games by him. Petty did some good things in the 2H last week and has good chemistry with Anderson, but SF defense is awful. Mia really needs this game to keep playoff hopes alive as they finish up @Buff and vs NE. Moore a decent backup with considerable experience. Lean Mia.
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i don't mind Moore, think he looked okay after it looked MIA choked away the game and he led them down the field for the game-winner. ARI isn't the same team as they have been the last two years, yeah, but that's still something when MIA looked dead as a doornail

bones said:
C-Man: Concerning Goff, I do not know what he will turn into as a QB but imo right now I have serious doubts. I am serious about this, it amazed me on "Hard Knocks" that anybody with half a brain, much less a Cal grad, did not know that the sun rose in the East & set in the West every day. In fact, it would shock me that your average 13 yr old did not have this information simply by paying attention and assimilating what they see/hear over the course of their short life, not to mention their education. To me, and I might be old-fashioned, it seems like this is simple basic knowledge.

"Who cares?" is a legitimate response. My response is that being a QB, or a good one, in NFL does require some intellect to read defenses, assimilate information and adapt and check-out of plays. I say a good clue that a QB may not be able to do this is his failure to figure out from his daily life where East/West are and where sun rises and sets on a daily basis.

Then we see that LA does not have him start/play until late in season and what we see so far has not been impressive or promising. Of course, its the Rams under Fisher and he is a rookie, so a final judgment is premature. But, this is my initial reaction to a Goff led Rams
Click to expand...

Goff not even being active for half the season made it seem like something weird was going on and while I'm no Fisher lover I think he did all he could not to use him. Probably knew his time in LA was done as soon as he was forced to start him when Keenum would at least keep games competitive

nbafan88 said:
I think Seattle bounces back strong.
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they're so good when on, but the terrible games they've had are a concern

mrpickem said:
Sea moved from 14 to 16 quickly and they will probably crush rams, but I doubt they make huge playoff run, esp after losing Thomas, D aint the same
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i think the best part of their defense is how they stop the run. Thomas is a factor in that, but it's more about the LBs. As i wrote above, something about that team seems off. Early in the year it was the bad OL combined with Wilson's ankle that kept him from being able to move. Now that he's healthier and the OL is better (but still not good), he embarrasses himself last week against an average (at best) defense

Gorgolon Lives said:
Gotta think the Rams players come out with SOME pride tonight after the firing.
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why do they care? I'd think Gurley's comments would be more important to them

raems said:
BTW, getting 6 points against Brock Osweiler in a division game off a huge win is really just a fantastic holiday gift.
Click to expand...

i'm gonna take JAX in the pools I'm in, but can't stomach putting any money on the only NFL QB worse than Osweiler

aplous said:
Titans worry the hell out of me as a Chiefs fan with their power running game.
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i feel like this number is bigger than it should be. Very surprised at the 6 opener and am sad i missed it, but Mariota seems to take care of the ball and the D&STs are a major part of the KC offense. Opponents should realize they need to make KC score points on offense so I would think they'll be extra cautious punting/kicking to Hill and on punt team
 
aplous said:
Titans worry the hell out of me as a Chiefs fan with their power running game.
Click to expand...

First glance is that line is too high. But you have Reid with some extra days to prepare, and that's where he shines. I might bite on KC 1H if I can get under a fg.
 
Gorgolon Lives said:
First glance is that line is too high. But you have Reid with some extra days to prepare, and that's where he shines. I might bite on KC 1H if I can get under a fg.
Click to expand...

yeah I think KC wins and covers. Tennessee is really fun and I hope they win their division, but on the road in Arrowhead is not like any game they have played recently.

They just beat Denver with Siemian playing hurt and the team in general playing poorly, they played the packers at that teams low point, and all of their division games are shit because the division is shit. KC is rolling right now and I do think they win by a TD or more here
 
D-Woww said:
yeah I think KC wins and covers. Tennessee is really fun and I hope they win their division, but on the road in Arrowhead is not like any game they have played recently.

They just beat Denver with Siemian playing hurt and the team in general playing poorly, they played the packers at that teams low point, and all of their division games are shit because the division is shit. KC is rolling right now and I do think they win by a TD or more here
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Siemian may not have been 100% but i thought he was moving pretty well and how is KC scoring enough to win by a TD+

ProV1Colt said:
Alex Smith should have a field day with Tennessee secondary
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read what you just wrote? A field day via dump-offs and check-downs?
 
Tito said:
Can't figure out the Seahawks, they just don't have "it" this year though, imo.

Don't the Rams play the Seahawks tough? Yes, it was an atrocity of a game last week for them but the coach change could shake them awake and they respond. I just can't back them though. But also can't back this Seattle O laying 2 td's +...stay away game or play the total
Click to expand...

Yeah, the Rams always play Seattle tough. Getting 3 scores seems like an awful lot, but Seattle is in a bounce back spot, they're at home in a PT game (albeit, a Thursday night game), and the Rams just fired Fisher. Agree with others that the under may be the play if you have to make a bet on the game.
 
Total results for Thursday Night Football games this season...

3-0 to Over when the road team scores at least 33 pts.

10-1 to Under when the road team fails to score at least 33 pts.
 
GWarner27 said:
Siemian may not have been 100% but i thought he was moving pretty well and how is KC scoring enough to win by a TD+



read what you just wrote? A field day via dump-offs and check-downs?
Click to expand...

This is a case of a stigma being put on a guy and not updated. Is Alex Smith chucking it down field like Drew Brees? Nope, not at all, but he can move the ball downfield. Hes actually become a very good QB
 
D-Woww said:
This is a case of a stigma being put on a guy and not updated. Is Alex Smith chucking it down field like Drew Brees? Nope, not at all, but he can move the ball downfield. Hes actually become a very good QB
Click to expand...

Please.

He's a fine QB, but that's cuz I don't see game manager as a criticism. He hardly throws downfield ever and will have to change his skin completely to leave the King Checkdown nickname behind and he hasn't come close to doing that for you to make any sort of "update." You're kidding yourself
 
GWarner27 said:
Please.

He's a fine QB, but that's cuz I don't see game manager as a criticism. He hardly throws downfield ever and will have to change his skin completely to leave the King Checkdown nickname behind and he hasn't come close to doing that for you to make any sort of "update." You're kidding yourself
Click to expand...

Disagree. He throws downfield when asked to. And the last two weeks (and 4th Q of Denver) was very successful in doing so.

Smith also has a higher Yards per attempt than:

Aaron Rodgers
Derek Carr
Cam Newton
Eli Manning
Carson Palmer
Joe Flacco

But it's always convenient to buy into the common narrative. When he is your team's QB (as a fan), you become grateful that you have him. Frankly I wish Reid would turn him loose more. He has weapons to work with up and down the field.

Alex Smith is a damn good quarterback.
 
Capaholic said:
Disagree. He throws downfield when asked to. And the last two weeks (and 4th Q of Denver) was very successful in doing so.

Smith also has a higher Yards per attempt than:

Aaron Rodgers
Derek Carr
Cam Newton
Eli Manning
Carson Palmer
Joe Flacco

But it's always convenient to buy into the common narrative. When he is your team's QB (as a fan), you become grateful that you have him. Frankly I wish Reid would turn him loose more. He has weapons to work with up and down the field.

Alex Smith is a damn good quarterback.
Click to expand...
And the Titans secondary is shit. I just have a feeling Alex is gonna have a great day throwing the ball. Downfield and dinking & dunking
I'm sticking to it.
 
Like I said, I like Alex Smith, but you guys are nuts saying he throws downfield.

YPA stats are meaningless when you list guys that throw the ball downfield vs a guy who completes a lot of short passes
 
GWarner27 said:
how much does AD matter behind an OL that can't block
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he still gets the respect of the defense. McKinnon and Asiata don't scare anybody. Vikes will get better match ups in the passing game just by AP showing up. Plus, Colts run D is shit.
 
About 2 degrees but no snow or wind. Crowd will not be as strong as usual with freezing temps....tickets pretty much free online/around town
 
Bills team total is going to hit. 24.5 is high for a december game but this is exactly the kind of spot where Buffalo goes off. Meaningless game in front of a likely half full stadium vs an inferior team. A whole week of hearing how terrible they are, especially the offense- wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Tyrod connect on a couple big plays to Sammy and them hang up a 40 burger on the Browns. Shady is averaging over 100 all purpose per game & 5.2 ypc, and off a game where he only carried 12 times for 27 yds. He will bounce back in a big way- rush yds probably a good prop to hit- Clev allowed 111 to Hill 146 to Bell. Don't forget TD Mike could also break out spelling Shady. Game total prob goes over as well because the defense can't stop the run, but I want to take the Cleveland O out of the equation and put $$$ on shady & co to get in the endzone. A bunch.
 
Only problem is that shady has only carried the ball 20+ times once this season. Buf will rush for some yards but with Tyrod and Mike in the mix I can't take the shady prop.
 
Looking at Lev Bell rush yards prop. He has been unstoppable last 4 games and was injured by Cincy last 2 seasons. Crowell went for >100 on only 10 carries against this defense. Also Hill under rush props. Pit has been good against the run and against Hill in general. Hill's only 2 100+ games were vs Clev.
 
Staffords finger is more significant than I think anyone realizes. The last time he wore a glove to throw, years ago ended up tragic. Theo is gonna be a pass. Detroit run game will put up minimal yards. Rain projected for first half. I see short fields on both sides. Heavy rain. Watch first half game and see when rain stops. I see 3-4 turnovers minimum. Field goals.

Jake Rudock the first player on the field throwing for Detroit. Call it a sign. If Stafford gets hit wrong, which we know he will. Ehh
 
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I'm thinking about the Colts. You don't really get stronger ATS at home than Minny though. Luck/Pagano never played there before either. Something about it got me turnt up though. If you're on them I'd like to know.
 
Nobody thinks this is a big letdown spot for Nyg? Maybe Stafford injury is significant, but I think the lions are live
 
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