Heading into Sunday night's New England-San Diego game, NFL favorites and underdogs were split 7-7 against the spread in Week 14.
After closing as 4-point home underdogs, the Chargers led 14-13 at halftime and were still ahead 14-13 entering the fourth quarter. They were still covering while trailing 16-14 before the Patriots'
Julian Edelman took a 15-yard pass over the middle from
Tom Brady, broke a tackle and scampered for a 69-yard touchdown to give New England a 23-14 victory and a cover.
That result gives favorites a slight 8-7 ATS lead for the week heading into Monday night's Atlanta-Green Bay game but also pulled favorites and underdogs exactly even at 99-99-4 ATS on the season against the ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Lines. The consensus is taken from the 14 Las Vegas sports books on the Don Best screen (Westgate, William Hill, Wynn, Caesars, MGM, Treasure Island, South Point, Stations, Boyd Gaming, CG Technology, Aliante, Stratosphere, Golden Nugget, Jerry's Nugget) after kickoff of each game.
There are five games that are not included as they closed with a consensus line of pick 'em, so there was no favorite or underdog. Not only are faves/'dogs exactly .500, but so are over/unders as they are 103-103-1 heading into Monday night as unders have gone 10-5 so far in Week 14.
Home teams are slightly ahead at 101-98-4 ATS (note: the three London games and the Jets-Bills game that was played in Detroit aren't included). Home underdogs had moved over. 500 last week when they were 4-0 ATS, but they went 3-6 ATS in Week 14 and are now ahead just 30-29-1 ATS.
Unless something drastic changes during the day Monday, Green Bay is going to go off as a double-digit favorite over Atlanta. Double-digit underdogs are usually a profitable NFL play, but they're just 6-9-1 ATS after Tampa Bay plus-10.5 was the only big 'dog Sunday in its non-covering 34-17 loss at Detroit. However, it should be noted that even though they didn't qualify as double-digit 'dogs, Carolina beat New Orleans 41-10 as a 9-point underdog and plus-350 on the money line, Buffalo lost 24-17 at Denver but covered as a 9.5-point road 'dog and Oakland beat San Francisco 24-13 as a 9-point home underdog and plus-350 on the money line.
But I grade the consensus wherever it lands without prejudice. The closing lines is meant to represent where the line ends up after all the oddsmakers, wiseguys and the general public have had their say ... it is what it is. Another example is that Seattle closed and was graded as a 1.5-point road favorite at Philadelphia after being an underdog earlier in the week before winning 24-14 (so that counted as a loss for the home underdog Eagles though some people considered them a home favorite). Also, Arizona did come through as a 2.5-point home underdog in its 17-14 win over Kansas City even though a lot of people heard of that game as a pick 'em or that the Cardinals were small favorites.
Here are the results from this weekend and the season to date:
Week 14 betting recap heading into 'Monday Night Football'
Home: 5-10 SU, 5-10 ATS
Favorites: 10-5 SU, 8-7 ATS
Home 'dogs: 2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS
Double-digit 'dogs: 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS
Over/unders: 5-10
Season to date through Week 14 (w/ Monday night pending):
Home: 117-85-1 SU, 101-98-4 ATS (3 London, 1 BUF non-home game)
Favorites: 135-66-1 SU, 99-99-4 ATS (5 pick 'em)
Home 'dogs: 21-39 SU, 30-29-1 ATS
Double-digit 'dogs: 1-15 SU, 6-9-1 ATS
Over/unders: 103-103-1
As usual in this "Opening Line Report" column, we now look to how the weekend's results have impacted the upcoming week's lines.
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</center> [h=3]Off-the-board report[/h]
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook posts its NFL openers at 4:30 p.m. PT each Sunday (Note: The SuperBook usually posts the games involving the teams involved in Sunday and Monday night games, while most books hold off on those). This is the section where we note which games are off the board due to injuries, but this week there were lines posted for all 16 games.
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[h=4]Week 15 SuperBook openers[/h] (Home team on bottom)
Cardinals
Rams - 3
Raiders
Chiefs -9.5 (-10)
Jaguars
Ravens -12.5 (-13)
Steelers
Falcons PK
Texans
Colts -7 (-6.5)
Bengals PK (-1)
Browns
Dolphins
Patriots -7.5
Buccaneers
Panthers -5.5
Redskins
Giants -6.5
Packers -6
Bills
Vikings
Lions -7 (-7.5)
Jets
Titans -2 (PK)
Broncos -3.5
Chargers
49ers
Seahawks -7.5 (-9)
Cowboys
Eagles -3.5
Saints -3 (-3 EV)
Bears
Note: Number in parentheses is what the line was bet to by the start of the Sunday night game (when the line for the Patriots' and Chargers' next games were taken off the board).
[h=3]Early Week 15 line moves[/h]
Here are the openers from the Westgate SuperBook. We'll look at how we got to those numbers, including a look at the advance lines for Week 15 that were put up last Tuesday, where the offshore openers might have differed and how the lines moved in early betting Sunday afternoon. While the biggest part of winning at football is picking winners, it's just as important to be able to read the market and know when to place your wager to get the best number, so we'll try to point out which numbers are most likely to move during the week.
Thursday: Cardinals at Rams (-3): The Westgate advance line last week was St. Louis minus-2.5 and the Westgate bumped it up to 3 after both won Sunday. CG Techology (formerly Cantor Gaming) in Vegas went with 2.5, and so did offshore giant Pinnacle, but early money came in on the Rams and by late Sunday Pinny was up to 3.5 (heavily juiced to the 'dog) and the Westgate, after not moving initially, went to minus-3 (minus-120) later in the night. It looks like it could ended up a mix of 3/3.5.
Raiders at Chiefs (-9.5): The advance line was Kansas City minus-10 but was nudged down to 9.5 after the Chiefs lost and the Raiders won Sunday afternoon; however, it opened between 10.5 and 12 offshore and 11 at the Wynn Las Vegas, so the Westgate was bet to 10 by the Sunday night kickoff and then to 10.5 later in the night.
Jaguars at Ravens (-12.5): The advance line was Baltimore minus-12.5 and reopened the same at the Westgate. The Wynn went with 13.5 and offshores were a mix of 13 and 13.5, so the Westgate moved to 13 quickly and then to 13.5 early Monday morning.
Steelers at Falcons (PK): The Westgate had Falcons minus-1.5 but was reopened at pick 'em after Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati on Sunday. William Hill went ahead and made the Steelers minus-1, but this line will mostly be affected by how Atlanta looks at Green Bay on Monday night.
Texans at Colts (-7): The advance line was Indianapolis minus-7 and the Westgate reopened the same after both teams won Sunday (though the Colts didn't cover). Offshores mostly went with 6.5, as did the Wynn (William Hill went even lower at 6). The Westgate was bet to 6.5 in early wagering and that's where it looks like it's settling now, though some books will probably get bet back to 7.
Bengals (PK) at Browns: This was Cincinnati minus-2 last week and reopened pick 'em at the Westgate after both lost Sunday. Offshores opened between PK and Bengals minus-2.5 (at CRIS) and the line has settled in the middle. The Westgate went to 1.5 on Monday morning.
Dolphins at Patriots (-7.5): The Westgate had New England minus-7.5 and reopened the same before the Sunday night game. With the Pats winning and covering, this should stay in the area just over a touchdown.
Buccaneers at Panthers (-5.5): Carolina was minus-3.5 at the Westgate last week and that was increased to 5.5 after the Panthers kept their division title hopes alive. CG Technology and the Wynn opened lower at 4.5 and this looks like it might settle at 5.
Redskins at Giants (-6.5): This line has also jumped (mostly due to the ineptitude of the underdog) as it was New York minus-3.5 last week and reopened at minus-6.5. Offshores ranged from 6 to 7, so 6.5 looks like it'll be the most common number.
Packers (-6) at Bills: The Westgate had Green Bay minus-6.5, but after Buffalo covered at Denver, it reopened at 6. CG Technology went even lower at 5, but we'll see how Monday night's game impacts this line.
Vikings at Lions (-7): Westgate had this 7 last week and it stayed the same after both won Sunday. William Hill and most offshores went with 7.5 and Westgate was bet there in early wagering. Seven looks like the right number.
Jets at Titans (-2): The Westgate had this Tennessee minus-3 but lowered to 2 on Sunday afternoon. Offshores ranked from pick 'em to Titans minus-1, but the Wynn Las Vegas actually went with New York minus-1. Early wagering moved the Westgate's line to pick 'em, but this could go either way, though it's look more likely the Jets will be a short road fave.
Broncos (-3.5) at Chargers: Westgate's advance line was 3.5 and reopened there after the Broncos won (but didn't cover) against Buffalo. BetOnline went with 4. The Chargers' Sunday night performance isn't likely to change this much, as Denver will probably remain a road favorite of just over a field goal.
49ers at Seahawks (-7.5): This was Seattle minus-6.5, but after Seattle won at Philly and San Fran lost at Oakland, it was adjusted through the key number and reopened at 7.5. Offshores went even higher with a mix of 9.5/10 and William Hill and Wynn both went with 9.5. Westgate's opener moved to 8, then 9 and finally 9.5 by late Sunday night. The Stratopshere went with 10, and it looks like that's the way this is headed.
Cowboys at Eagles (-3.5): Westgate has Philly minus-4 last week but adjusted to 3.5 Sunday after the Cowboys' win Thursday and the Eagles' loss Sunday. Offshores opened with a mix of 3/3.5, but so far 3.5 is looking more popular.
Monday: Saints (-3) at Bears: The advance line was New Orleans minus-3.5 but both lost this weekend and the Westgate reopened it at 3. CG Technology went with 2.5 and offshores had a mix of 2.5/3 and the Westgate adjusted the juice to minus-120 on the Bears plus-3. The majority of offshore books has Saints minus-2.5 with heavy juice Monday morning, so it could wager between 2.5 and 3 all week.
<center>
</center> [h=3]Tuley's Takeaways from Week 14[/h]
Cardinals catch Colts for top spot in NFL ATS Standings
Indianapolis entered the week with the league's top ATS record at 9-3, but its 25-24 come-from-behind win over Cleveland failed to cover as a 3-point road favorite and the Colts dropped to 9-4 ATS, which is now Arizona's record after its 17-14 win over Kansas City as a 2.5-point home underdog. The Chiefs dropped their third straight game to fall to 8-4-1 ATS along with the Eagles.
Bottom ATS teams lived down to reputation
Tennessee dropped to 3-10 ATS to hold onto the league's worst betting record as the bottom five teams in the NFL ATS Standings all failed to cover except for the
New York Giants, and that was only because they were facing the Titans and one of them had to cover (though, I guess they could have pushed with the Giants favored by 3 points). That was never in doubt, as the Giants rolled 36-7. In fact, of the bottom 10 teams, the Steelers were the only other team to cover, though Atlanta still has a chance Monday night.
Best bet in NFL so far this season? Buffalo under
The Bills continued to be the NFL's best bet as they stayed under the total for the fifth straight game in their 24-17 loss at Denver (the consensus closing total was 47.5) and they're now 11-2 (84.6 percent) with the under on the year. The Chiefs and Lions are 9-4 with the under while the 49ers have stayed under in their past four games. With unders going 10-5 so far this week, most over streaks have been snapped, but the Saints did go over for their third straight game and are a league-best 10-3 with the over (the Packers can tie them with an over Monday night). The Colts and Steelers are 9-4 with the over.
[h=4]2014 NFL ATS Standings[/h]
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