Week 15 Discussion Thread

nbafan88 said:
cant make the pats/steelers total high enough imo

pats TT over is going to be a must play after last night's atrocity....

the patriots must win or they are at risk of potentially falling to the wildcard....


if it ain't broke....

http://www.killersports.com/nfl/query?sdql=team+=+Patriots+and+o:team+=+Steelers+and+season+>=+2000&submit=++S+D+Q+L+!++
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I didn't even ready your post buddy but I noticed the time you posted was 11:11

This means whatever you posted should happen
 
Total of 53 in the pats game seems good.

Steelers have realized that Ben can throw it all over the field with Brown and now a second and third option in Marty Bryant and Jimmy Schuster.
Now 3 legit receivers for Ben.

Laveon was good but he had no speed and rarely broke any runs over 10 yards.

Laveon was like Navy offense in college. Pitts could regularly burn 8 minutes on a scoring drive.
Last game they let Ben throw it.

The over is contingent on steelers letting Ben throw it all over the place otherwise if HALEY decides to run Laveon for 3-5 a carry this game could go under.
 
Thursday night: if you want to bet this game, you need help. MAYBE a D. Thomas over prop if I am feeling antsy but this is such an awful game.

Cant see Chicago scoring more than 10, but Detroit is not trustworthy either. Although I saw in person what Chicago looks like on the road against a team that has not completely quit. Can I lay the points with Detroit? ML in a parlay? Gonna sit on this.

LA/KC is a great game that I have no feel for. I do think points will be scored. Lean over.

Do we know if Rodgers is playing for GB?

Baltimore at Cleveland: Balty had their hearts broken in Pittsburgh after playing a good game and showing offensive ability they haven't shown yet. They still have a grip on a playoff spot though. CAn we trust them to take care of business? Fuck the Browns, I bet them last week and I really feel like I capped the hell out of that one but they just find a way to be the Browns every week. May lay off this one

Jacksonville at home should win, but 11.5 is still so many points. I am actually somewhat of a Bortles apologist, but laying almost 2 tds with him? Nah

Cincy has quit and Minny is in a bounce back spot.

New Orleans names the score against Petty and the Jets.

Jacksonville -1.5/Minnesota pk/New Orleans -6 looks like a really really solid teaser

NY is actually in a great spot. I do trust the Eagles to work their asses off this week, but the Wentz thing has to be demoralizing. ON the other hand, they have to keep winning to get the 1 overall seed. No play

Zona has been good to me this year but I usually play them at home. I do like them here and think they could very well win the game outright. Washington is cooked.

Rams/Seahawks is a great game. No leans, just pumped to watch it.

Agree on the NE/Pittsburgh over

San Fran is a new team and you can tell that the players see exactly what is on the line; They are set at coach and QB for the future so the rest of the team is stepping up their play to show they belong on the roster next year. No tank in this team. Like Jimmy G to win this

Can they flex Dallas Oakland out of the night game spot? Sheesh, what a shit game for a day that has a ton of great matchups

MNF looks like an over play if anything

Leans:

Detroit -5
Zona +4.5
Jacksonville -1.5/Minnesota pk/New Orleans -6
NE/Pittsburgh over
 
Dallas at Oakland total 46.

Is it reasonable to see a high scoring game here?

Oakland should score in the 20,s and dallas should also.

I see this one hitting the 50's.
 
Am I crazy to be scared of the Jacksonville leg of that Teaser? I still feel like they can show up and lay an egg any week against anyone. Revenge for the Texans, Yates looked somewhat competent, and they have the best offensive player on the field in Hopkins?
 
NO DOMINANT TEAMS THIS YEAR

I SMELL A WILDCARD SUPERBOWL WINNER

IM REALLY FEELING PACKERS CAROKINA OR ATLANTA CAN WIN IT ALL.

One of these 3 teams can get hot and win it.

All 3 have former Mvp type of qbs with very good offenses
Defensively they all can be pretty decent.

I just don't see much difference and to me this is where Rodgers comes out of nowhere like Eli to win it all or Ryan or Nrwton.
 
D-Woww said:
Am I crazy to be scared of the Jacksonville leg of that Teaser? I still feel like they can show up and lay an egg any week against anyone. Revenge for the Texans, Yates looked somewhat competent, and they have the best offensive player on the field in Hopkins?
Click to expand...

No concern. Yates is no match.

Hopkins is the best in the game but he's going against LOCKDOWN U in BOYE and Ramsey.

They can handle anyone
 
Pats look vulnerable with their CFL style defense.

However I recall that both Pitts and Balty usually lose the next game after playing each other.
Add in Patriots off a loss will they lose 2 in s row?

Seems like situationally favours patriots
 
Pitts crappy linebackers couldn't stop Ravens.

You can bet James white Burkheaf and Lewis are happy.

Gronk back with no Shazier to track him down
 
Monday night easy.

Atlanta will blast Jamis and his careless ways.


Atlanta wins big - Tbay has quit on their coach
 
Minny COUld be the top play.

Rhodes can shut down Albert Jacob Green

Dalton is Dalton

The Keener Keenum will bounce back against the bengals.

THIESEN should go nuts vs bengals now that Adam Jones is out

MELVIN LEWIS MAGIC FINALLY RUNS OUT AND MINNY LAYS THE BEATS TO CINCY
 
Chargers Chiefs looks over.

Usually tons of passing and points.

Chargers defense looks amazing etc but when they play meaningful games they usually give up 24+Points.

These are the games that Bosa Ingram don't show up.
 
Pats steelers should hit over 53.

With the Pats rollin out The Gronk with Amenboeing and Lewis and James white and Hulk hogan and Crooks and Burkehead the Steekers. can't stop this many guys

Advantage Pats vs steelers defense.

With the Steelers Rollin out Antonio Brown and Marty Bryant and Jimmy Schuster and Jesse James and Eli Rogers and Leroy Bell it's advantage steelers.

Advantage Steelers vs Pats new CFL style no name defense.
 
Only problem with playing NE/Pit over is that both teams should have success running the ball...that means long sustained drives with the clock running. Also, I would think a shootout is the only way Pit can win, so do not expect B.B. to play into the style Pit wants to play.
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
Minny COUld be the top play.

Rhodes can shut down Albert Jacob Green

Dalton is Dalton

The Keener Keenum will bounce back against the bengals.

THIESEN should go nuts vs bengals now that Adam Jones is out

MELVIN LEWIS MAGIC FINALLY RUNS OUT AND MINNY LAYS THE BEATS TO CINCY
Click to expand...

No wonder he goes by AJ

"Melvin" had magic? I must've slept through that period.
 
C-MAN said:
Only problem with playing NE/Pit over is that both teams should have success running the ball...that means long sustained drives with the clock running. Also, I would think a shootout is the only way Pit can win, so do not expect B.B. to play into the style Pit wants to play.
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I think you are spot on except reverse that thinking. I think the only way PITT wins is if they pound Bell and keep Brady off the field. Which they absolutely can do and I would expect Haley to do but you know how that goes.
If I were coaching PITT (which I'm not), they way I would go about it would be this gm DO NOT TRY to run Bell, but throw in some runs you want to see if it works vs NE this go around. The end goal is beating NE in the Playoffs which I think they can and will do by running Bell and pounding him at NE, then throw AB into the mix w/ PA. Which they should do in the playoffs.
As for this game, spread it out and throw throw throw go for that shootout.

After saying this, I could just be trying to out fox the fox. Because honestly, If PITT just pounds Bell and mix in PA, the can beat NE twice
 
Let's not fool ourselves, the blueprint for beating Brady is making him move out the pocket. No running, passing, etc...that defense is plenty easy to defeat. Gotta move Brady, it moves the entire system....Giants showed the way a long time ago. I got smoked playing unders with potential playoff rematches last week in the NFC but this is the ultimate LIKELY potential rematch. That has worked over the years. Who shows what in this one? Could be a very vanilla game.
 
If Jags had lost against Seattle I was going to bet on them ats no matter what because they are 4-0 ats and su after a loss this season.

But they won, it was a huge win, it was also a very physical battle. So i'll probably lay off the Texans game except to maybe stick Jags in a ML parlay with Rodgers and Pats after a loss. I get the skepticism of not trusting Bortles with a big spread. But don't trust Bortles, trust the defense above all and the running game. It's not like we haven't blown teams out of the water before. The defense shouldn't have any problems against Houston's lackluster offense. If they're concentrated and fit after that triumphant and physical battle last week then the Texans shouldn't reach double digits and a cover is very likely. But also wondering how this team handles being on the cusp of a playoff berth. I'm wondering if that requires some extra composure that the team isn't experienced with. But I also like the last home game of the year angle with this team, although that may be overstated because last year we hadn't won one all year until the rival Tits came.

If the Jags win, then I love a letdown angle @ San Fran, having just clinched playoffs, with rival Titans on deck (REVENGE) and another sloppy west coast performance (see @ Arizona) and another sloppy post-travel performance (see @ Jets)

Then i'm too emotional to cap Titans vs Jags, I hate those guys more than anything.

Pats/Steelers 'over' also looks really smart. With the Steelers having so many issues on defense and Brady being Brady, and the Steelers' offense as prolific as it is. I'm not sure the Steelers have the talent up the middle (someone like Suh) to move Brady horizontally. I imagine a fun and high-scoring game that goes back and forth.
 
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D-Woww said:
Am I crazy to be scared of the Jacksonville leg of that Teaser? I still feel like they can show up and lay an egg any week against anyone. Revenge for the Texans, Yates looked somewhat competent, and they have the best offensive player on the field in Hopkins?
Click to expand...

I would be more afraid of the NO part of the teaser. Yeah they should beat the dump out of the Jets, especially at home off a loss. But with the exception of last week you have to go back to week 2 for a game the Jets lost by more than one score. Yes they have backup QB in which could benefit Jets as NO probably doesn't have enough tape on this guy to game plan for him.

It's a waste of a few points but throwing Balti into your 10 pointer should net the results you want.
 
im not really worried about the saints, I kind of like them with the 15.5. Everything you said is correct about the Jets but the downgrade from McCown to Petty is pretty substantial, plus you have the Saints returning home after a long weeks rest coming off a loss. I think its a smack down
 
I think the Chargers will get the win in KC. They are much better than the market thinks. I don't buy into KC being back after thumping the Raiders. I think their defense is still porous and Rivers could easily win it in a shootout in the event the Chargers defense can't stop Alex Smith.

PHI / NY - stay away, too many competing storylines in this one. Giants are done like dinner. Who knows what Foles will do as a starter. Watch and learn.

GB / CAR - Rodgers back and its probably best to stay away because let's not forget they are still not a great football team, even with him but damn, getting 3 points is intriguing.

Cincinnati's dream is over, they're done. Minny or nothing but its too big a spread for me. Pass.

Sort of like Houston getting over 10 points at Jax. Yates is a step up (ok a small one) from Savage and even though this team has nothing to play for, they may rally around him and play hard. Problem is Bortles has been looking somewhat better of late and Houston's defense is a shell, giving up big yardage games. Not sure if I have the guts to try this one.

Lean Arizona as they seem to at least still be playing hard and the skins look done.

NE / PIT - line is right I think. Pats do well in Heinz and anywhere off a loss. Hard to fade them.

I feel like San Francisco is the right side in that game but I had hoped to get them at pk or better. Might still take them.

Really like Dallas to cover at Oakland. With Lee back this is a different defense and Oakland looks lost and confused.

Atlanta should thrash the Bucs but will they? I don't trust this falcons team.
 
austinhous said:
Cincy had a hangover from the Pitt game. That was the nastiest game of the season. I'm not trying to call this week's game either way but are you sure you want to go all "They're done for the season" on them?
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im not saying they aren't going to cover the big spread, but this isn't exactly a team that oozes leadership and character. I could absolutely see them falling into "get the season over with" mode. Having said that, I have the Vikes teased bc that is a large number
 
After capping the Saturday games more in depth, I've switched to liking KC vs the Chargers. Their offense has shown a lot more life in the past 2 after switching the playcalling duties and as Gandalf pointed out, the Chargers have had an easier than normal ride. Its not necessarily reflected in SOS but they have just caught a lot of good situations. I still think they are somewhat underrated by the market but so is KC right now after a bad stretch that they are showing strong signs of coming out of.
 
Let me go ahead and talk about a game nobody but me cares about

Bills/dolphins- lost a little on the tt over in the weather game, luckily played Colts tt under pregame and tried to warn of the weather...

Bills luckbox their way into a win but I'll take it after so many close losses.... game screams letdown to me. I said it before the losing streak the Bills oline will struggle vs any team with a strong front 7, enter Wake/Suh. Good news is everyone but Miller (who cares) is practicing. I would expect the Bills to run a ton with Seantrell as the extra lineman and try to wear the Fins down. Shady is a great, so yes he could break one at any time. KB playing through injury so chances are he doesn't make it through the whole game. Tyrod will go but one bad hit away from being done with a half concussed Peterman in the wings. Suh and Wake.

Defensively this is a game where historically we get shredded. Needing a win, playing at home enter Ricky williams/Ajayi/ maybe Drake to rip through the d line. Cutler always capable of throwing the game away, but the Bills d line has had trouble all season getting real pressure on the qb. I really think just like Shady on offense, Tre is a gamechanger but the Fins are one the deepest wr core in the nfl and I don't trust the defense to stop the run.

I really want to believe that McDermott has changed the culture, and Miami IS still a 2-4 team on the road, but I don't think I can lay the points in this situation. Many will point to the Pats game and say this screams Fins letdown but no. Last year they beat Buffalo coming off a su win vs the Steelers, then later beat them off a win @NYJ on a b2b road game.


total of 39 and there is the possibility of bad weather (could end up being sleet) but I won't be on the under here because Bills d/shady. Gut feeling is both teams get 21+ but weather permitting.
 
Chargers vs KC

Chargers should be losing at half.

In these type of crucial games it seems the Chargers are rarely leading at halftime. It seems Rivers is usually down double digits and then he makes his comeback attempt in the third and fourth quarters.

Kc first half spread should hit as I believe chargers will NO SHOW in the first half and then make a comeback in the 2nd half
 
Pats are in an awful spot this week, third straight on the road and on a short week as well. Goodell must've signed off on this schedule personally.

Hard not to jump all over Pitt as a home dog. This game has a different feel than previous matchups. The Pats D is much more vulnerable against the run than I expected them to be. Usually Hoodie is able to scheme away a key component on the other team, but this year it doesn't seem like they have that ability. Yes I saw Baltimore move it up and down the field last week at Heinz, but in the critical moments late in the game the Steelers were able to get that one stop they needed to win. That's going to be the difference in this game. The Steelers will sell out for whatever it takes to win. If it takes running Bell 35 times they'll do it. If it takes Ben throwing 66 times they'll do it. If it takes knocking a couple of key guys out...well, they do that too. Fake snaps, whatever. They'll sell out on defense as well, they're not afraid to run blitz, they'll autoblitz a CB off a short end, they take chances to get that one stop they need.

This is the one game Tomlin feels he needs to win this year to hoist the Lombardi. He's obviously wrong because the Pats could come right back in five weeks and beat them in the playoffs. But they will sell out everything to win this game. And with the Pats in an awful spot it should be just enough. It'll go back and forth but Pitt finds a way to get the last shot and wins by 3 or 4.
 
With regards to Pats Steelers total of 53.

People are thinking both teams might keep it vanilla to save it for the playoffs. Nonsense.

Bellichek prepares one game at a time. They will show up and try to win as Seeding is on the line here.

Both teams will play to win and throw it all over the place.

I think it will be the opposite of what some people are thinking.

The Regular season matchup will be higher scoring and the playoffs is where they slow it down run more and play conservative. Pitts will run Bell more in the playoff match.
 
Gandolf said:
Pats are in an awful spot this week, third straight on the road and on a short week as well. Goodell must've signed off on this schedule personally.

Hard not to jump all over Pitt as a home dog. This game has a different feel than previous matchups. The Pats D is much more vulnerable against the run than I expected them to be. Usually Hoodie is able to scheme away a key component on the other team, but this year it doesn't seem like they have that ability. Yes I saw Baltimore move it up and down the field last week at Heinz, but in the critical moments late in the game the Steelers were able to get that one stop they needed to win. That's going to be the difference in this game. The Steelers will sell out for whatever it takes to win. If it takes running Bell 35 times they'll do it. If it takes Ben throwing 66 times they'll do it. If it takes knocking a couple of key guys out...well, they do that too. Fake snaps, whatever. They'll sell out on defense as well, they're not afraid to run blitz, they'll autoblitz a CB off a short end, they take chances to get that one stop they need.

This is the one game Tomlin feels he needs to win this year to hoist the Lombardi. He's obviously wrong because the Pats could come right back in five weeks and beat them in the playoffs. But they will sell out everything to win this game. And with the Pats in an awful spot it should be just enough. It'll go back and forth but Pitt finds a way to get the last shot and wins by 3 or 4.
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Pitts seems like the right side. It's their time to beat the pats.

Only thing concerns me is the obvious coaching mismatch between Bellichek and Tomlin.
I just feel Bellicheks tactics of analyzing film and X's and O's is a much better approach than
TOMLINSON OF just yelling at players.

That works against the Browns and garbage conservative Ravens but won't work vs the pats
 
Chargers typically fall flat in these spots.

Throw away everything they have done in the past 8 weeks as they will not show up early in this game.

Chargers are both overrated and underrated.

They can be really good and also no show.

Too inconsistent of a team.
 
Rodgers vs Carolina is a nice matchup.

Likely the winner of this match will REPRESENT THE NFC IN THE SUPERBOWL

Carolina or Green Bay. It's time for a wildcard team to make the Super Bowl.
Afc wildcard teams are usually garbage.

NFC wild card teams are good and can win it all
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
Pitts seems like the right side. It's their time to beat the pats.

Only thing concerns me is the obvious coaching mismatch between Bellichek and Tomlin.
I just feel Bellicheks tactics of analyzing film and X's and O's is a much better approach than
TOMLINSON OF just yelling at players.

That works against the Browns and garbage conservative Ravens but won't work vs the pats
Click to expand...

While I agree I think this dynamic will play out better in the rematch in five weeks, where Hoodie will make needed adjustments while Tomlin will keep doing what he's doing.
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
Chargers vs KC

Chargers should be losing at half.

In these type of crucial games it seems the Chargers are rarely leading at halftime. It seems Rivers is usually down double digits and then he makes his comeback attempt in the third and fourth quarters.

Kc first half spread should hit as I believe chargers will NO SHOW in the first half and then make a comeback in the 2nd half
Click to expand...


This right here..... And it is also perhaps the toughest part of backing the Chiefs.... As Reid will build a lead with some of the most dynamic plays you will ever see.. and then 2nd half its 3 runs and a punt to try to run out the clock ALL HALF.... I think the biggest difference is, Matt Nagy has seen that shit fail.... And if you watch the last two games, the playcalling is very very interesting and varied... Larger point being, I feel better about protecting a lead than I did a few weeks back.... Its not a popular opinion, but while the Chargers have a few stud players, I simply don't think they are a "great" team... I think they are slightly average to above average on both sides of the ball and their special teams are awful. I very much like KC as a play... Always have said that I wager with my mind and not my heart... Both say KC
 
Reid will have Kc ready. Rivers seems like a notorious slow starter which was proved by the chargers terrible first quarter scoring stats.

They just don't come out to play . Rivers gets better as games go on and he eventually puts yo most his numbers from late third to end of game.
 
ML parlay -120

Eagles/Vikings/Jaguars

easiest $$$ in recent memory. FWIW I think they are all good ats as well. For those looking for legs

Vikings ML/Jags ML tied to -200 is +110 (-250 is -105)

Eagles ML/Vikings ML - tied to -350 is even $$$$


I have the ever so slight twinge about Jax just because of Hopkins and the Jaguar's past, but nah. Eagles have 4 running backs that could all go for 100 on NYG, they don't even have to throw. Vikings are home off a loss. Reif out but Remmers coming back is bigger no? Rudolph out but they have enough to handle Cincy.
 
KJ said:
Let's not fool ourselves, the blueprint for beating Brady is making him move out the pocket. No running, passing, etc...that defense is plenty easy to defeat. Gotta move Brady, it moves the entire system....Giants showed the way a long time ago. I got smoked playing unders with potential playoff rematches last week in the NFC but this is the ultimate LIKELY potential rematch. That has worked over the years. Who shows what in this one? Could be a very vanilla game.
Click to expand...

KJ.....totally agree that the way to beat the pats is to move brady, really the only way to beat them...but i doubt there will be anything vanilla about this game, both teams know that if they go to the opposing teams crib for the champ game their chances of advancing will be reduced dramatically, especially the steelers who really struggle in gillette....i thought the miami game might be vanilla and played the under there (played the pats for more) but i can't see the validity in an under play here.....both defenses are susceptible to the mid range and deep pass and both qb's are excellent passers....while you may be right that this is a closely fought low scorer i am inclined to think that both teams could end up in the 30's and the rematch in the playoffs a very tightly played low scorer....imho
 
Eagles on 3rd straight road game. That’s always a no play for me. Almost any other situation and I would love them today.
 
Pats stayed on the east coast for all the games on this three game stretch while the eagles were on the west coast for two weeks..... both situations not as bad as they could be
 
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