WEEK 14

bookieassassin

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
one unit

Army -7/6 L
A&M +6 L
GT +19' W

smaller

Kansas +1 L
Wisky P L
NCSt +3' W
CUSE +12 W
S Caro +3' W
LSU -5 W


small

UMass +10' W
Sparty -1 L
*Vandy +10' L
ULM +10 L
App St +3 L
Cinn +3' L

tiny

Toledo -3 2Q L
S Ala P 2Q W
Col St -3 1H L
Ark +2 1H W
GT +10' 1H W
EMU +7 L
Fresno +9 W


leans

Miss St >27
SH >3
Navy >3
Kan ST
 
Last edited:
B.A.R. said:
GL BA
Appreciate your savvy wisdom.
Excited for bowl szn
Click to expand...
Yep what he said! Like the cocks & pack…been a sub par season for me though! Now at 50.7% juiced out quite a few weekends at 6-5. 5-4 etc

These first round of playoff games with home field will be fantastic! The whole thing is great so far imo… thanks brotha BA. Da kine
 
BOWL ELIGIBILITY


Do they even want to be in a bowl?
>> all coaches do - do players REALLY want to extend a crappy year (esp Sr's), only to go to the Weedeater Bowl, instead of going home and banging high school girls / hanging out with their buddies / avoiding family ha ????

Don't forget - some teams MIGHT make a bowl at 5-7. This year is doesn't look likely, BUT COACHES CAN STILL USE IT AS MOTIVATION.
>> it makes little difference what you or I think, it's what the PLAYERS think - BE makes coaches look good to boosters, so no doubt players might have extra incentive to play hard >> days off / swag/ CASH - who TF knows

APR info:



5/4 win teams

App State 5-5-0
Oregon St 5-6-0
Cincinnati 5-6-0
North Texas 5-6-0
Auburn 5-6-0
UL Monroe 5-6-0
W Michigan 5-6-0
Kansas 5-6-0
VA Tech 5-6-0
Wisconsin 5-6-0
Michigan St 5-6-0
NC State 5-6-0
New Mexico 5-6-0
E Michigan 5-6-0
Virginia 5-6-0
Coastal Car 5-6-0

Houston 4-7-0
Hawaii 4-7-0
Arizona 4-7-0
Utah 4-7-0
UCLA 4-7-0
Northwestern 4-7
Maryland 4-7-0
LA Tech 4-7-0
Utah St 4-7-0
Central Mich 4-7-0
Wake Forest 4-7-0
Kentucky 4-7-0
UCF 4-7-0
Air Force 4-7-0
Charlotte 4-7-0
Old Dominion 4-7-0


Top 5 APR teams

NW > Cinn > WF > Rice > Tree
 
bookieassassin said:
Sparty -1

at Heritage

fading Rutgers off that nasty L - Rutger's BE goal already met - Sparty needs one more
Click to expand...
The ole "Situation Trophy" up for grabs here.

Rutgers has been such a weird team this year...

A bowl would be huge for Coach Smith to get the going again.

The faithful aren't all that confident, fwiw. They've moved on to basketball season.

I do think the players play very hard this week. Golden Chiles needs a clean sheet to get the job done.
 
added

Army -7

>> smaller now, looking to add at 6' (lesser juice)

Last week's results give us some nice line value here (IMO) - week 13 line would be 12'/13 or so. UTSA plays MUCH better at home, they stink on the road - 0-6 su/ats run (lost at TULSA - RICE - ECARO). The handicap for me here - is that UTSA's season kinda 'ended' at home on Sr day - after a rough start they achieve BE, with a sloppy win over a bottom 5 in the country team. "Now let's get ready for the holidays and a crap bowl" ........ but wait - they (dome team) have to travel to West Point to play ARMY in the cold - off a bad ND loss. Army has won 8 straight final home games, covered 7.
 
BA - I see WV on lean list? Curious on your thoughts on that game. I am holding a WV RSW ticket over 6.5 -120. Wondering whether to hedge out if I can if WV grabs an early lead. I don't like their pass D 9.0 YPA but they run it better and stop the run better than TT. Likely high tempo game figure about 145 plays or so and feel like total and side are pretty dead eye dick at 3.5/64. Both teams essentially bad on D, and with WV pass D being so poor I'm thinking of dumping if I can.
 
Timh said:
BA - I see WV on lean list? Curious on your thoughts on that game. I am holding a WV RSW ticket over 6.5 -120. Wondering whether to hedge out if I can if WV grabs an early lead. I don't like their pass D 9.0 YPA but they run it better and stop the run better than TT. Likely high tempo game figure about 145 plays or so and feel like total and side are pretty dead eye dick at 3.5/64. Both teams essentially bad on D, and with WV pass D being so poor I'm thinking of dumping if I can.
Click to expand...


Just a early look based on WV 3-0 su/ats on the B12 road / TT playing better on the road as well.....plus to me WV is probably the better team?

BIG PICTURE? - I would lean to TT winning the game/ WV maybe covering....
* T Brooks in his last game at home
* who has WV beaten? - teams with weak passing QB's ( J Daniels not playing well then)
* who has given TT problems - aggressive D's that bring heat / get penetration (OL/DL soft) > WV can do neither

IF WV D was a bit better, and/or they could cover/bring heat - a case could be made - #127 passes defended / #121 in INT (FOUR)
* TT D stinks as well

NOTE: WV is MUCH better 1Q/1H - so maybe wait for a 2H/live play on TT?

WV rushing splits (1Q > 4Q)
5.2 > 6.1 > 3.9 > 3.3

TT - 4.2 > 3.7 > 4.2 > 4.9


BOL man and Happy Thanksgiving
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Love the Kansas pick. Not sure how/why anyone would want to fade them right now.....sure 5/6 because they slept walked thru the first 2 months....currently playing like a fringe top 10 team....
Click to expand...

Good man - hopefully ...........

Actually an anti-overthinking play (overthinking has not worked this year ha)

Usually, I would be on Baylor here probably - KU off huge upsets / Bears hot - at home - has KU run out of gas?

KU is the better team with match-up edges - great senior leaders, why TF stop here? - in WACO of all places ha......gonna play them thru bowls
 
added

CUSE +12 - juiced at BM
A&M +6 - ditto
Vandy +10' - at Heritage small now / waiting for 12? - don't think it drops below 10
ULM +10 - BM
App St +3 - BO juiced
S Ala P 2Q - at Heritage
Col St -3 1H - BM
Ark +2' 1H - Heritage
GT +10' 1H
EMU +7
Fresno +9

* bumped up GT


Cuse/Miami should be a one possession game
Aggies defensive front should give Horns problems - Aggie D #5 havoc vs Texas O #83 allowed
Vandy - might go up? how can you not like vandy here? - Vol O struggles on road, lean under
ULM will fight like crazy at home
App St - better team (now) should win outright
Col St - lean only CSU - great 1Q/1H team
Hogs - lean only Ark - great 1Q/1H team
GT - Ga horrific starters - GT strong
EMU - HC Creighton maybe best dog coach in country - don't trust them this year - (otherwise larger play)
Fresno - nice spot/value IMO



HAPPY THANKSGIVING boys
 
bookieassassin said:
Just a early look based on WV 3-0 su/ats on the B12 road / TT playing better on the road as well.....plus to me WV is probably the better team?

BIG PICTURE? - I would lean to TT winning the game/ WV maybe covering....
* T Brooks in his last game at home
* who has WV beaten? - teams with weak passing QB's ( J Daniels not playing well then)
* who has given TT problems - aggressive D's that bring heat / get penetration (OL/DL soft) > WV can do neither

IF WV D was a bit better, and/or they could cover/bring heat - a case could be made - #127 passes defended / #121 in INT (FOUR)
* TT D stinks as well

NOTE: WV is MUCH better 1Q/1H - so maybe wait for a 2H/live play on TT?

WV rushing splits (1Q > 4Q)
5.2 > 6.1 > 3.9 > 3.3

TT - 4.2 > 3.7 > 4.2 > 4.9


BOL man and Happy Thanksgiving
Click to expand...
TY BA for your thoughts, greatly appreciated!
 
added

LSU -5 (-115 at BM)
Cinn +3'


Actually betting more - recommending smaller, as LSU has burned me too many times.... but OU and that OL/QB on the SEC road -at night- in Baton Rouge?
>> Sooners can't protect the passer (#132 sack %) - LSU brings heat (#8 sack %) .... OU O #127 havoc allowed / LSU D #38. LSU typically finishes strong -
* no big deal, but just for fun : Sooners on the NOVEMBER ROAD? > one cover since 2017 (4 pt cover vs Okie St/2 pushes)

Cinn play just a hunch, and a fade of TCU on the November road / bad weather. When the Frogs went outside Tuesday, it was 80 degrees - game time here it should be high 20's/low 30's - light snow, increasing late - winds 10 mph/ gusts to 20. Cinn can run, and plays well at home (Frogs weak on road) and needs 1 more W to be BE (Frogs 7-4).
 
bookieassassin said:
added

LSU -5 (-115 at BM)
Cinn +3'


Actually betting more - recommending smaller, as LSU has burned me too many times.... but OU and that OL/QB on the SEC road -at night- in Baton Rouge?
>> Sooners can't protect the passer (#132 sack %) - LSU brings heat (#8 sack %) .... OU O #127 havoc allowed / LSU D #38. LSU typically finishes strong -
* no big deal, but just for fun : Sooners on the NOVEMBER ROAD? > one cover since 2017 (4 pt cover vs Okie St/2 pushes)

Cinn play just a hunch, and a fade of TCU on the November road / bad weather. When the Frogs went outside Tuesday, it was 80 degrees - game time here it should be high 20's/low 30's - light snow, increasing late - winds 10 mph/ gusts to 20. Cinn can run, and plays well at home (Frogs weak on road) and needs 1 more W to be BE (Frogs 7-4).
Click to expand...
Like both of these as well.
 
bookieassassin said:
Happy Thanksgiving boys.....

Too bad Georgia Tech doesn't play - say Bowling Green next week at home....
>> haven't been emotionally involved in a game like that in awhile. REALLY wanted GT/ Haynes King to win - screaming "go for 2 NOW!" after first score.
Click to expand...
Counting my UGA PK in game and +6.5 live insanely lucky this AM. Hopeful it’s sign of things to come today!
 
bookieassassin said:
Happy Thanksgiving boys.....

Too bad Georgia Tech doesn't play - say Bowling Green next week at home....
>> haven't been emotionally involved in a game like that in awhile. REALLY wanted GT/ Haynes King to win - screaming "go for 2 NOW!" after first score.
Click to expand...
I did the same! That kid is tough AF! Gotta go for two there in my opinion… a walk off
 
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