smh212
Awesomeitus Degenerate
- Sides: 22-17 +7.35
- Totals: 8-13 -6.25
- Team Totals: 2-1 +0.81
- Player Props: 7-6 -0.27
- Teasers: 8-8 -2.20
- Second Half: 1-0 +1.25
- 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half total 0-1 -1.10
- 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half total 1-0 +.50
- Parlay: 2-4 +3.38
Finally got back into the black after a nice week 13. Here are my week 14 thoughts:
MAC = Margin Against Close: Metric measures how a team performed against the closing number.
Teams entering the week with a MAC of -40> AND did not cover prior week: 14-5 ATS
Teams entering the week with a MAC of +40> AND covered prior week: 12-5 ATS
*ATS tracking starts in week 5, when enough data is available for system to run.
Week 14 candidates: MAC of -40>: CAR (-47.5), WAS (-42.5), CHI (-43)
Week 14 candidates: MAC of +40> (listed teams should be FADED): GB +(69), STL (+60.5)
**GB is a repeat MAC fade as they covered against NE last week, and thus despite sporting a +66 MAC NE is not on the list given that they failed to cover last week. STL makes the list this week after their +46 mac last week against Oak. With that performance STL went from a YTD MAC of -22 to +24. **
Baltimore @ Miami -3 45.5
REF: John Parry - Over his career, home teams have won 59.1% of games he has officiated, though that figure has diminished since becoming a referee. This year, he was prized with the league's opening game and has also been a part of 5 games with 50+ points. He has not shown an imbalanced set of stats, though it is worth noting that all winning teams in his games have also covered the spread. Avg T = 49
Balt:
Baltimore Defensive Problems
Perception that Baltimore Defense is elite is FALSE.
Losing their elite D-lineman Ngata is different is bad. Ngata +18.4 PFF rating, 8[SUP]th[/SUP] amongst 3-4 DE’s in the NFL.
Late in the week –AFTER the game plan had been put in
Baltimore defense lost their best corner Jimmy Smith a few weeks ago
Temperature is expected to be in the 80s Sunday, especially tough for a thinned out Baltimore defense
Ravens off loss: 24-6 the next game (straight-up)
RB Forsett: Dolphins have allowed 200 Rush yards in consecutive games for the first time since 1990
Last week vs. Chargers: 24 rushes for 106 yards
Week before vs. Saints: 22 rushes for 182 yards
Baltimore in December: 3-10 ATS (last three seasons)
Baltimore pass defense: #31
Balt 23[SUP]rd[/SUP] in yardage diff L5.
Balt D 24[SUP]th[/SUP] yards/game. Avg total of Balt games: 47.5
Odds makers not catching on….Balt 4-1 OVER last 5.
Balt allowing 5.86 ypp YTD, league avg = 5.67 – BUT L5 6.20 YPP
Balt off gaining 5.90 ypp (10[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL) YTD, drops to 5.75 L5.
Balt getting to QB to the tune of 3.2 sacks per game L5, but Ngata suspension likely to hurt that.
Balt -17.5 mac L4. NET PR -4.4 L5 vs YTD – mac YTD +47.5 , adds up to a team in serious REGRESSION.
MIA:
Miami 6-3 SU last 9 games (all three losses tough and late) … outscoring opponents by 98 points during that span.
Dolphins, as a home favorite: 12-36 ATS (back to 2003)
Road team in Miami games 62-44 ATS
Miami: LT Branden Albert OT (on IR; this will be fourth game without)
Last 2 Dolphins home games, they have not allowed a touchdown
Miami pass defense: #2
Miami pass defense (per attempt): #1
Finnegan doubtful
Miami AMOV 8.2 at home
Power Rating line = Mia -3.5
Mia mac -2 L4. +0.6 NET PR L5 vs YTD.
Conclusion: Miami playing much better at home this year than in prior seasons. Game has playoff implications for both clubs. Miami the better team at this point in time, should be able to throw the ball all over the yard. Would play Mia at anything under 3, other than that pass.
Pitt @ Cincy -3 47
REF: Tony Corrente – Slight edge to dogs. Avg T = 47.
PITT:
Steelers on road: 10-21 ATS streak, but Steelers 11-2 ATS at Cincinnati
Last week vs. Saints: Pitt scored two TDs (with two 2-point conversations) in final 2:34 of game to make score closer than the final.
Last week was the kind of games the Steelers seem to lose. Pitt the better team from a numbers perspective.
Offensively, Pitt is in the class of Indy, Phila, and GB.
Pitt getting players back on D: Jones, Shazier, Cortez, Taylor, Polamalu all practiced Friday, BUT OT Gilbert OUT, McClendon likely out – Saints ran for 146 on Pitt last week.
Pitt had 36 FD last week to 20 for NO.
Pitt D line down to 6 healthy bodies. Outside of Heyward, rest of line has a combined 10 games played as Steelers.
Pitt 0-3 ATS run
Pitt -6 mac L4. +0.8 NET PR L5 vs YTD.
CIN:
Cincy covered 12 of 15 regular season home games (lost last 3)
Cincy has yielded the fewest TD passes this season (11)
Cincy defense (opponent QB rating): #2
Cincy outgained by 245 yards this season (#19 in league)
Cincy worst PR of any 8 win team (1.72) 16[SUP]th[/SUP] in the league.
Cincy home amov = 5.3
Cincy 6[SUP]th[/SUP] in league standings, but 16[SUP]th[/SUP] in PR. Pitt 12[SUP]th[/SUP] in league standing, and 13[SUP]th[/SUP] in PR
Cincy 1[SUP]st[/SUP] home game after 3 straight road games. 3-0 SU , 2-1, ATS (@NO, @ Hou, @ TB). Mac = +29.5, result due to +25.5 mac registered at Saints.
Since 1985, teams playing 1[SUP]st[/SUP] game after being on the road for 3 straight:
89-66-1 SU
72-79-5 ATS
Teams (Cincy) who are 3 to 6.5 point favorites are 35-14 SU
Cin +14.5 mac L4. +2.8 NET PR vs YTD over L5.
Conclusion: Numbers say Pitt should be able to move the ball on Cincy. If Pitt get’s lead, can Dalton bring them back? Cincy will want, and should be able to, run the ball on Pitt. Pace is going to make this race. This is the type of game that Pitt wins and Cincy’s loses. Pitt a lean on the ml, and a play if +160 or better.
Ind -3 49.5 @ Cle
REF: Clete Blakeman - Crew holds third lowest avg penalties per game = 4[SUP]th[/SUP] lowest pts/game amongst refs. Avg T = 44. Two weeks ago GB/Min landed on 45 (Total was 49). Last week did Phila/Dal game, closed at 56, total scored was 41. UNDER continues to be the theme w/ this crew.
Note: Indy has only one more win on the season, but PR has Indy #6 and Cleveland #18
IND:
Much better at home over Luck’s career (reg season and playoffs)
Won 19-5 SU (17-7 ATS) at home; 12-11 SU on road (13-10 ATS)
Browns defense (opponent QB rating): #1 in league
Colts a finesse dome team is playing outside, in the weather, on a grass surface
CB Vontae Davis OUT - #3 rated QB by PFF –not good when going against Josh Gordon.
[Colts] Road favorite by at least a FG (off three straight home games) playing non-division opponent: 8-24 ATS (since 1992)
Last 5 different story for Colts offense.
Indy offense: #1 YTD – 4[SUP]th[/SUP] L5
Indy offense: #1 YTD – 6[SUP]th[/SUP] L5
19[SUP]th[/SUP] in Yardage Diff (3[SUP]rd[/SUP] YTD)
Indy +8.5 mac L4. -3 NET PR L5 vs YTD.
CLE:
The SU winner of the last 40 Cleveland games has covered 34 times (spread has mattered only six times)
Hoyer last 3 games: 61 completions on 120 attempts
Only Jets have fewer TD passes than Browns this season
Browns defense has most interceptions in league (17 INTs)
Browns avg total L5 36.4. YTD 41.5, close to a TD difference.
Home AMOV L5 -5.5, but weather conditions, facing dome team, allow for +3 hfa.
Cle mac -14 L4. Cle +1.9 NET PR vs YTD L5.
Conclusion: Signs point to Cleveland. As mentioned in the note: Indy has only one more win on the season, but PR has Indy #6 and Cleveland #18. My PR says Cleveland should be favored. Indy numbers on offense have been regressing. Both teams 3-2 over last 5, but consider Colts have built their record with wins against Jax, Wash, and NYG. Losses against NE and Pitt. This is a public number. CLEVELAND IS A BET @ +3 or better.
Hou -5.5 42.5 @ Jax: PASS
Nyg -1 46.5 @ Tenn: PASS (Gun to head: Over)
Car @ No -9.5 50
REF: Walt Coleman - UNDER tendencies have held true again, leading to a large number of low-scoring games. Expect more of the same in the future, as his crew holds the lowest number of penalties called per game. Last week called the Kc/Den game – UNDER. Avg T = 43
CAR:
PANTHERS A MAC PLAY.
Panthers have covered 10 of 13 in New Orleans
Carolina has outgained opponents its last two games
(Panthers outgained Minnesota by 138 yards last week)
[Carolina] NFL road underdogs directly off road loss: 166-103-3 (62% since 2003)
Panthers playoff chances not dead.
Cam will have to run – Galette/Bell matchup nightmare for Car.
Last week 13-31 loss to Minnesota a deceiving result.
Car out FD Minn 23-12
Minny 2 TD’s via special teams
Carolina 178 rushing yards – won TOP 35:48 to 24:12
Carolina L5: 16[SUP]th [/SUP] (-10.12) in Yardage Diff vs 24[SUP]th[/SUP] YTD (-31.42)
Car -47.5 mac L4, easily worst stretch of season. PR no significant change L5 vs YTD. Car MAC Splits: Games 1-4: +10.5, 5-8: -0.5, 9-14 (bye wk 12): -47.5
NO:
Last 24 home games under Coach Payton at home: 19-4-1 ATS (lost 4 of 5 ATS)(mac = -28.5)
Riff between Payton and Ryan?
Saints offensive decline: YPG game L5 6[SUP]th[/SUP] in NFL, vs 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] YTD.
Yard Diff drop: YTD 7[SUP]th[/SUP] – L5 10[SUP]th[/SUP]
L5 Saints below avg in Pts/play (.370)
PR state Saints no longer elite.
Saints mac L4: -32.5, 4 prior weeks +30. No change in PR from YTD to L5. Saints have underperformed all season.
Conclusion: I see an inflated number, and the mac numbers support this. Last week public saw the Panthers lose 31-13 to Minnesota a perceived BAD team. Then they saw the Saints go into Pittsburgh a GOOD team and beat them by more than the final score would suggest. Public WANT the Saints to be good, but their record says they are 5-7. Are they a better team than their record suggests? Maybe. Should they be painted a 10 pt favorite? I don’t think so. PANTHERS are a bet. Lean towards the under (Walt Coleman crew, declining Saints offensive numbers).
Tampa @ Det -10 41.5
REF: Jeff Triplette - His career numbers show a slight edge for home teams and a tendency to call a lot of penalties, though his early returns in 2014 have been the opposite (AVG T – 43) Even as we can see a ton of low-scoring games and road underdogs covering, expect some regression towards his career mean, which could spell more penalties leading to slower, higher-scoring contests – Wk 12 Den/Mia 36-33: 69 pts – Week 13 Hou/Tenn 45-21 (66 pts)
TB:
Since Bye: TB’s D seems to be growing more comfortable with defense scheme
(since bye, TB yielding the least yards per pass in entire NFL)
TB has outgained opponents 4 of last 5 games (they had been outgained their 10 prior games)
6 of last 9 games Tampa Bay has lead in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter
Last week: Tampa played game without their top 3 Tight Ends
TB getting starting C back as well as LB David, and Mason.
TB mac +18 since bye week -68.5 prior to bye week.
L5 Tampa 4[SUP]th[/SUP] in defensive yards/game and 8[SUP]th[/SUP] in yardage diff.
TB +21 mac L4. +5.5 NET PR L5 vs YTD. Team clearly improving.
DET:
Only 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] time Lions favored by over 9 points since 2000
Detroit 8-4 … but 3 wins this season that were more than lucky. Could easily be 5-7.
Detroit in December: 2-11 ATS (last 3 seasons)
Detroit with winning record off win by 2 TDs or more: ZERO covers last 13 games
10 of last 22 Lions games decided by 3 points or less
Detroit (overall since 2011): 24-36-1 ATS
Last week: Stafford 390 yards, C. Johnson 146
Detroit rushing offense: #30
Detroit defense (points): #1
Detroit rushing defense: #1 (66 yards per game)
Detroit D yards/game dropped from #2 in league to #9.
Det mac -16 L4. NET PR L5 just 16[SUP]th[/SUP] best in NFL. Negative mac (-6.5) over last 5, combined with declining PR = overrated team.
Conclusion: Not much respect on the betting line for an improving Tampa team. Was able to get Tampa at +10.5 which is a bet for me. I don’t think it’s out of the question that Tampa can win the game SU. Tampa is a bet down to 7.5.
Stl -3 44.5 @ Wash (open Stl -1.5)
REF: Brad Allen - Allen has shown no particular trends to highlight, though he has been part of several blowouts that have made his job easier. He ranks highly in terms of NFL grades, but it would be kind of shocking to see him in the playoffs. Avg T =46.
STL:
Rams road favorite only 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] time since 2007
Early line (before last week’s games): Rams pk
Rams becoming more comfortable with Gregg Williams defensive scheme:
First five games of season, Rams had 1 sack. Next 7 games: 27 sacks (6 on Sunday)
Last week: Rams scored touchdowns on their first five possessions vs. Raiders
Rams dome team in cold
Rams L10 road games: AMOV -6.6. ONE win by more than 3 points. ONE win by exactly 3 points.
STL mac +60.5 L4 = FADE. Mac prior 4 = -8, and mac first 4 of season = -28.5, indicates this team has peaked.
WASH:
Washington: 3-17 SU last 20 games
But ... Washington: 8[SUP]th[/SUP] best yardage differential this season
Colt McCoy career as starter: 8-14-1 ATS
but threw for 392 yards last week with 3 TDs, 0 INTs – likes Gruden system.
Misleading final last week as Wash out FD 24-19
Wash 5 fumbles last week (lost 1), forced 3 fumbles (recovered 2)
Was allowing 4.2 sacks per game L5 (league avg = 23)
Expect to see a lot of Morris.
Wash -42 mac L4
Conclusion: This game is all about line value. We have one team (STL) that has peaked over the last month, and one team (Wash), that has bottomed out. In the NFL, that means play the team that has bottomed out. Throw in the fact that WASHINGTON is a home dog and the SKINS +3 and +140 are bets.
NyJ @ Minn -5.5 39.5
REF: Jerome Boger - The games he has taken have been mostly blowouts, with only the Week 9 game between the Rams and 49ers being decided by fewer than 8 points. Blow out week 13 Phila ov Tenny, wk 14 Buffalo blowout over Cleveland.
NYJ:
Jets had only 13 pass attempts last week (fewest of any NFL team this season)
Last week, Jets rushed for 277 yards on 49 carries
Geno Smith career: 19 TDs; 39 turnovers
14 of last 16 Jets losses by a TD or more
Motivation becomes a question for Jets
Jets with fewest TD passes (10)
Jets passing (QB rating): #32
Jets passing offense: #32 (163 yards per game)
Jets turnovers: -12 (only one other team in league worse than -7)
Jets AMOV on road = -17.1
Internal strife amongst Jets coaching staff/front office?
Wilkerson out again….Ryan mystic vs rookie qb’s in doubt.
Ny -19 mar, and now ranked 27[SUP]th[/SUP] in PR. Covered 2 of last 3 after going 0-7-2 ATS weeks 1-9 with a -78 mar.
MIN:
Vikings in last 7 weeks have yielded 29 sacks (3 last week) – BUT registered 35 for a NET 6. Big turnaround.
Bridgewater becoming more comfortable, but offense still a liability.
Minny 30[SUP]th[/SUP] in pts per play on offense.
Minny spirits are up despite losing record. Team feels it is going in right direction.
Last week scored on two blocked points. Won 31-13 despite being outgained
Defense continues to get better, offense staying stagnant.
Min +14 mar L4. Since wk7 5-1 ATS +28.5 mar.
Conclusion: UNDER is a bet in this one at 40, as points are going to be hard to come by. I’m going to concede that there will be at least one defensive TD score, and that could blow the under, but my numbers are calling for a 17-10 Minny win. Considering a parlay w/ Minny and under. Line is getting bet down, and I think it’s a function of “Rex vs a rookie”. If it get’s to “4”. Minny will be a consideration.
Buf @ Den -10 47.5
REF: Ronald Torbert - Over his career, he served on crews which were friendly to home teams while calling penalties at a below-average rate, and these tendencies have held true. If anything, they have increased this year, as he has served in many blowout wins by home squads. Avg T = 49
BUF:
Buffalo front 4 amongst best in league
Lead NFL in sacks w/ 46 (3.83/game) – L5 up to 4.8/game second only to Phi.
Buf 2-3 both SU and ATS when stepping up in class
Buf +1.8 NET PR increase over season.
Playoff hopes still alive
Orton struggles against top defenses (Den #2 in NFL L5 in Def Yards)
Buf #3 in Def Yard/game L5
Buf 23[SUP]rd[/SUP] against the run this season.
Buf +35 mac L4. +1.8 NET PR jump the last two weeks.
DEN:
Den – 80 rushes last two games.
Broncos C.J. Anderson
Sunday: 32 rushes for 168 yards
Two weeks ago: 27 rushes for 167 yards
Denver in December: 9-1 ATS (in Manning era)
Denver 30-42 ATS at home since 2006 (16-10 ATS in Manning era)
Denver: #1 yardage differential
Denver 4/5 games have been on road
Denver look ahead? Next two games @SD and then @Cin
Den -39.5 mac L4. Were a mac play last week, when they covered against KC. Den has -1.2 NET PR drop vs YTD over L5.
Conclusion: Best way to slow down Denver? Get to Peyton Manning. This is something that Buffalo can do. Game looks like a defense battle more than anything. Buffalo enters with plenty of confidence. Bills +10 is a play, and the UNDER deserves strong consideration.
KC -3 41 @ AZ
REF: Craig Wrolstad - The crews he officiated with during his career have always shown neutrality towards home teams, coupled with a recent trend to limit penalty calls. His numbers are average, but he saw 3 straight road favorites win and cover before the Wk 10 Pack blowout of Chi.
Early line (before last week’s games): Arizona -3
KC:
KC outgained by 255 yards this season (#20 in league)
Last 15 road games, Chiefs have lost only TWICE against the spread
Andy Reid has excelled away from home covering an amazing 62% of road games in his career (83-50 ATS)
Kansas City still does not have a single TD pass to a Wide Receiver this season
Chiefs have not allowed a 300-yard passer this season
KC gained only 151 offensive yards (compared to 388 for Denver)
Time of Possession: Den 39 minutes; KC 21 minutes
Road team in KC games: 13-4 ATS
KC offense: #28
KC passing offense: #31
KC 5.79 yds/pass (league avg 6.74)
KC -12.5 mac L4. KC -1.8 NET PR L5 vs YTD.
AZ:
Arizona outgained by 367 yards this season (#23 in league)
Cards at home last 10+ seasons (55-40 ATS)
Arizona blitzing D scheme especially benefits from crowd at home
Arizona is 16-5 SU
Losing only 5 times against the spread
Arizona allowed 100 yard rush last week vs. Atl
(they had not allowed a 100 yard rusher in prior 21 games)
Arizona has 18 sacks over their last four games (after only 8 the first eight games of season)
Arizona has outscored opponents 99 to 40 in 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter this season (17 of those points came in one game against Den)
Arizona had gone more than 11 quarters without an offensive touchdown until a meaningless score with just over a minute remaining last week.
Larry Fitzgerald expected to play
Arizona S Tyrann Mathieu expected to miss
Arizona Ellington OUT for season.
[Arizona] NFL winning home teams off two straight road losses: 50-29-1 ATS [since 1989]
Arizona rushing offense: #31
Arizona rushing offense (per attempt): #32
AZ +5.5 mac L4. Lost 2 ATS for first time this season L2. AZ -1.4 NET PR L5 vs YTD.
Conclusion: Two teams that are regressing as the season goes on. UNDER is a bet, as neither team has any offense to speak of. As line keeps creeping up, AZ +3 has to be considered.
Sf/Oak – No Opinion, but would not be surprised if SF lost straight up.
[Oakland] Underdog off 30+ point loss: 124-81-9 ATS (61% since 1990)
[Oakland] Home underdog more than FG off 30+ point loss: 39-19-2 ATS (67% since 1994)
Sea @ Phila pk 47
REF: Bill Vinovich - His low-penalty tendencies have been consistent throughout his career, so expect more low-scoring games.
SEA:
Seattle team is NOT NEAR as good as last season. One of their main weaknesses is a thin-defensive line which is a HUGE problem against Philly’s fast-paced offense.
Bad spot for Az
Seattle is OFF playing Arizona and SF and AFTER this game they play San Fran and Arizona
Seattle with questionable D-line depth … especially big deal against fast-paced Eagles offense.
Seattle passing offense: #29
Seattle rushing offense: #1
Seattle defense: #1 (285 yards per game – only team below 300)
Seattle 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] best yardage differential
Max Unger OUT
Sea mac +33.5 L4. Wins of 19-3 vs SF and AZ.
PHI:
Eagle offense that has snapped the ball 158 times over that same span, and note that in the first half vs. Dallas, before a big lead enabled them to back off the accelerator a bit, it was the fastest pace they had played at yet under Chip Kelly. It shows more of his confidence in Mark Sanchez, including the utilization of some read option plays, something not considered to be a part of the Sanchez skill set previously.
Philly has won 16 of last 20 regular season games
Philly at home covering only 11 of their last 34 home games (7-2 ATS last 9)
[Eagles] NFL home team off Thursday road win: 22-10 ATS (since 1989)Y
Philly top 5 in Yard Diff and Off yard/game.
Phila mac +21.5 L4. Philly +3.5 NET PR increase over L5.
Conclusion: Situation favors Philly. Seattle off two hard fought conference wins, against two offensively challenged foes. Now face a Philly team with good offense, and a defense that is getting to the QB at a rate of 4.6 times per game. Sanchez vs Seattle defense is a concern, but lean Philly.
