Week 14 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback (Happy Thanksgiving!)

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Thanksgiving week has not really been fruitful for me the past, last year was just me pushing money around. Maybe better this year. I'm one game over .500, a $$ loser clearly due to juice, but let's see if we can at least keep the head above water.

One thing I've been thankful for is that I haven't watched a second of the "Committee Rankings" or whatever they call them and I also haven't paid attention to the chatter about it after wards. I guess I've saved myself from wasting time on illogical nonsense? At least that's what I gather. This week is interesting because the pressures of qualifying for the playoff are definitely apparent. There hasn't been much chaos in recent weeks, it's actually been a bit boring without any monumental upsets (unless I'm forgetting some). Maybe this will be the week? We'll see. 93-92-5 coming into this week. Not a good year by any measure. Let's hope the regular season finishes out competently.

Thursday:

Was going to write up Navy +5.5, but now the line's down to 4, and even under that in some spots. That Navy defense is going to struggle to stop Memphis. I think the same will be true for Memphis stopping Navy, but that is just not enough line value, as much as I wanted to have some action on Thanksgiving night.

Friday:

Ole Miss -7 WIN
Nebraska +6 LOSS
New Mexico +1 WIN
Texas A&M -2.5 LOSS
Arizona State +2 LOSS
Michigan +10 LOSS
Houston +3 WIN
Tennessee -2.5 LOSS
Wake Forest +1.5 LOSS
Penn State -13.5 LOSS
Missouri -4 WIN
Washington +7 LOSS
Cincinnati +3.5 LOSS
James Madison -23.5 WIN
Virginia -8 WIN
USC -21.5 LOSS
Auburn +6 LOSS
Cal +13.5 WIN
UNLV -7 WIN
Hawaii -7 WIN

9-11

1. Ole Miss -7 @Mississippi State (BOL): Based on the chaos facing Ole Miss with the potential Kiffin departure, I was looking for any fundamental reason I could find to back Mississippi State here, but it's really hard to find one. In fact, i couldn't find any. About the only thing you can say in State's favor is that they've played a little tougher schedule than the Rebels have. There's no category that's even close to an edge for Mississippi State in this one. The Bulldogs have had some nice performances this year, but not recently, and certainly not on the defensive end. They've given up 300+ yards on the ground the past two games and well over 400 yards in every game since the conference season started. They rank 122nd against the run for the year, and Ole Miss, though they can move the ball in a lot of different ways, can certainly run the ball effectively with Kewan Lacy. He's averaged close to 200 yards per game rushing the last two times out n SEC play against much better run defenses than Miss St, and we know Trinidad Chambliss can throw it as well. Ole Miss's weakness on defense is stopping the run, but the Bulldogs can't run it, so they'll need to throw it effectively. That's going to be hard because Ole Miss is much better against the pass, and Mississippi State gets sacked as much as anyone in the country. I just don't see any way the Bulldogs can keep up in this one for 4 quarters, and if Ole Miss wins, they're in the playoff regardless of what happens with their coach. There's some fear in this one because of Ole Miss's history in situations like this, but the numbers are wildly in their favor.

262 rushing yards for Mississippi State. This was the 125th ranked rush offense coming in. I know Taylor being in at QB made a huge difference, but Bothwell had a couple explosive runs and went for 5 yards a carry too. Ultimately Miss State didn't have the horses(at this point in the season) to keep up on defense and that was the difference. Ole Miss had 545 yards and I didn't think they were all that sharp.
 
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2. @Nebraska +6 v Iowa (BOL) : I've typically been on Iowa in this series, and especially in the games in Lincoln, but the spread is usually right around pick or at the most around a field goal. This year the line is 6, which is higher than you'd expect, especially considering the previous years featured some pretty incompetent Nebraska teams. The last time they played in Lincoln two years ago, Iowa was 9-2 and Nebraska was 5-6. The Huskers were a 3 point favorite and lost by 3. 2 years before that, under Scott Frost, Nebraska was 3-8 and Iowa was 9-2 again, and Nebraska again was somehow favored, this time by 1.5. Iowa won that one 28-21. Two years before that in 2019, Iowa was favored by 3.5 and came in at 8-3 while Nebraska was 5-6, and the Hawkeyes won that one by 3. Keep in mind that Nebraska had horrendous special teams in those years, so Iowa had a major advantage in that regard as well. This year they are both 7-4, Nebraska has the #4 FP+ Special Teams in the country and we're looking at a 6 point spread. Why? Probably because TJ Lateef is playing QB for the Huskers after Dylan Raiola was injured. When I match these two teams up, there is very little daylight between them. Iowa is going to have an edge in running game because Nebraska has struggled to stop the run against everybody, but this Iowa run game is not as strong as some of the others Nebraska has played, and they have no shot whatsoever in the pass game since their 114th ranked pass attack will have to deal with a Nebraska pass defense that has already completely shut down Cincinnati and USC. Offensively, Nebraska is using the backup, but overall, the pass grades and overall performance for Lateef in the games he's started have been pretty indistinguishable from Raiola. Also, Emmett Johnson has turned into a genuine weapon on the ground with back to back 100 yard efforts on the ground against Penn State and UCLA, both on the road. Worse Nebraska teams have taken better overall Iowa teams to the wire in the recent past in Lincoln, and and Lateef should be about as comfortable as he can be back at home in his third start since taking over. Kaden Wetjen and his return prowess will be a problem, but Nebraska's special teams have been very good, so I don't think Iowa can count on the obligatory special teams score in this one. Mark Gronowski is going to have a tough time getting anything going against this Nebraska pass defense...I just think this is a silly line. Nebraska was -1 against Michigan and +4 against USC at home earlier this year. Now they're +6 against Iowa? The value is on the Huskers here.

The "Lateef isn't a downgrade from Raiola" argument looks awesome now doesn't it? LOL. 2.9 yards per attempt. Nebraska got 217 yards on the ground from Johnson and it didn't matter because Lateef was so bad. I guess I can cool it about the Nebraska pass D too. Grunkmeyer and Gronowski both went well over 10 yards per attempt against them the past two weeks. Oddsmakers knew a lot more than I did with that line.
 
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3. @New Mexico +1 v San Diego State (BR) : I've been able to cash some tickets on the Aztecs in recent weeks on the strength of their defense, which is indeed good, but they will be facing the stiffest test of the year in the Lobos, and it's on the road, which is where the Aztec defense has looked mortal in their two losses(to Hawaii and early at Washington State). The Lobo offense is easily the best that SDSU will have played when they played them. The best offense statistically on SDSU's schedule is San Jose State, but they played the Spartans last week, at which point their offense was completely broken to the point they had benched starter Walker Eget. The other offenses the Aztecs feasted on were ranked thusly in yards per play: 112th, 121st, 129th, 110th, 116th, 100th, 117th, 72nd(Boise, who was starting their backup for the first time, and he stinks) and then 70th(Hawaii, who torched them for 38 points). The Lobos rank 44th, and 23rd in passing, so they will be major test for the Aztecs on the road. The Aztecs offense has a bad matchup too. All they want to do is run the ball. Their pass offense under Jayden Denegal and since 2 of their top 3 receivers were lost for the year has deteriorated so badly that they don't even try to throw and I don't blame them. They're only averaging 4.25 yards per attempt in the past 3 games and they've run the ball 65% of the time for the year and 70% the past 3 games. The problem with that is that New Mexico is ranked 16th in country in stopping the run, and they're by far the best run defense they've played. To beat New Mexico, you have to throw it, and Denegal can't do that, and the Aztecs know it. The Lobos are still alive for a spot in the MWC title game, and Jason Eck has had them motivated all year, so I'm sure they'll put forth a great effort here. The Aztecs have struggled against good competition on the road, and I think that defense could be vulnerable against a well coached offense that has some versatility. I like the Lobos at home here.

Denegal looked a lot better throwing the ball than I thought which made this one dicey. Credit to Eck. He's been finding ways to win, and he did it again as a short dog at home. By the way, that overtime period was crazy. New Mexico got a turnover on the first drive but then turned it over themselves when all they needed was a FG. They scored a play later and SDSU immediately got first and goal but they had I think 4 consecutive pre snap penalties all the way back to the 30! Someone is going to get a good one in Jason Eck. I'd like to see him further revitalize the Lobos though.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
Thanksgiving week has not really been fruitful for me the past, last year was just me pushing money around. Maybe better this year. I'm one game over .500, a $$ loser clearly due to juice, but let's see if we can at least keep the head above water.

One thing I've been thankful for is that I haven't watched a second of the "Committee Rankings" or whatever they call them and I also haven't paid attention to the chatter about it after wards. I guess I've saved myself from wasting time on illogical nonsense? At least that's what I gather. This week is interesting because the pressures of qualifying for the playoff are definitely apparent. There hasn't been much chaos in recent weeks, it's actually been a bit boring without any monumental upsets (unless I'm forgetting some). Maybe this will be the week? We'll see. 93-92-5 coming into this week. Not a good year by any measure. Let's hope the regular season finishes out competently.

Thursday:

Was going to write up Navy +5.5, but now the line's down to 4, and even under that in some spots. That Navy defense is going to struggle to stop Memphis. I think the same will be true for Memphis stopping Navy, but that is just not enough line value, as much as I wanted to have some action on Thanksgiving night.

Friday:

1. Ole Miss -7 @Mississippi State (BOL): Based on the chaos facing Ole Miss with the potential Kiffin departure, I was looking for any fundamental reason I could find to back Mississippi State here, but it's really hard to find one. In fact, i couldn't find any. About the only thing you can say in State's favor is that they've played a little tougher schedule than the Rebels have. There's no category that's even close to an edge for Mississippi State in this one. The Bulldogs have had some nice performances this year, but not recently, and certainly not on the defensive end. They've given up 300+ yards on the ground the past two games and well over 400 yards in every game since the conference season started. They rank 122nd against the run for the year, and Ole Miss, though they can move the ball in a lot of different ways, can certainly run the ball effectively with Kewan Lacy. He's averaged close to 200 yards per game rushing the last two times out n SEC play against much better run defenses than Miss St, and we know Trinidad Chambliss can throw it as well. Ole Miss's weakness on defense is stopping the run, but the Bulldogs can't run it, so they'll need to throw it effectively. That's going to be hard because Ole Miss is much better against the pass, and Mississippi State gets sacked as much as anyone in the country. I just don't see any way the Bulldogs can keep up in this one for 4 quarters, and if Ole Miss wins, they're in the playoff regardless of what happens with their coach. There's some fear in this one because of Ole Miss's history in situations like this, but the numbers are wildly in their favor.
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I don't think you're missing anything by skipping the weekly playoff rankings show. I've heard that it has been quite cringe- inducing this year.

This Ole Miss pick is interesting. It seems most people are itching to play Miss St. (as you were, initially). It could be wishful thinking, as everyone is assuming Kiffin will leave, and they don't like that. They want him to lose on the way out the door. It's tough to handicap the emotions here, so I'll be staying away, but your write- up seems clear- headed, and it sticks to what is known (statistically). Tomorrow, I guess we'll find out how much the emotions play into it, and whether or not they should have been factored into the handicap. Good luck this weekend.
 
sevenpointroaddog said:
I don't think you're missing anything by skipping the weekly playoff rankings show. I've heard that it has been quite cringe- inducing this year.

This Ole Miss pick is interesting. It seems most people are itching to play Miss St. (as you were, initially). It could be wishful thinking, as everyone is assuming Kiffin will leave, and they don't like that. They want him to lose on the way out the door. It's tough to handicap the emotions here, so I'll be staying away, but your write- up seems clear- headed, and it sticks to what is known (statistically). Tomorrow, I guess we'll find out how much the emotions play into it, and whether or not they should have been factored into the handicap. Good luck this weekend.
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Thanks SPRD. It's not that I'm not factoring emotions/intangibles into this one(I've lost with Ole Miss in Starkville before when they looked much better on paper), it's that the fundamental advantages for Ole Miss are stark enough to go with them even with some uncertainty with the Kiffin situation.
 
4. Texas A&M -2.5 @ Texas (BOL) : I know that there's a lot of speculation that A&M could do down in this spot for the first time all year, and A&M has a pedigree of losing games like this, but I think the Elko effect has taken hold in College Station to the point where this team is going to find a way to win. They'e gone on the road and won at Notre Dame, at Arkansas when they didn't have their A game, and then won by a comfortable margin against LSU and Missouri on the road, scoring 49 and 38 points respectively against two very good defenses. Texas has played well on defense at times this year, but they have tossed out some pretty weak performances as well, giving up 400+ or close to it to Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Vandy and of course Arkansas. Texas A&M is ranked 11th in yards per play on offense and is better than most if not all of those aforementioned offenses. They've got playmakers all over the field, and although they are in great shape for the playoff, they don't need any additional motivation in this game. Texas has 3 losses, and might think they have a shot at the playoff if they win this one, but most observers assume they are out even with a win over A&M here. Defensively, A&M matches up very well with Texas. Their biggest Achilles Heel is run defense, and Texas hasn't been able to run it on anyone this year. Arch Manning has been much better lately, but those have been in comfortable positions against pretty poor pass defenses. The top 3 pass defenses they've played are UTEP, Ohio State and Georgia, and all three mostly completely shut down Arch. A&M ranks better than all of them, save Ohio State. A&M is #1 in the country in 3rd down defense as well as sacks allowed, and there is a major mismatch up front at the line of scrimmage between this Texas OL(which has struggled mightily all year). I expect Manning to be running for his life, and that is tough for any QB. If Texas knocks off the Aggies, I'll tip my cap, because they just haven't demonstrated a pedigree to win games like this.

So much for the Elko effect. A&M looked just like they always have in big games over the past 20-25 years. They didn't really need this game and it showed because they got pushed around all game. Texas came in at 101st in yards per carry on offense and Wisner went for 155 yards on 19 carries. When Wingo made that acrobatic catch when nobody was within 20 yards of him in the back of the endzone, A&M was down 3 despite Manning being 8/20 for 50 yards. A real contender would have been up 14-17 points at that point. After that, the Aggies just got run off the field. Manning made some great plays and the rest was history. Bad call by me. A&M was not worthy of the faith.
 
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5. @Arizona State +2 v Arizona (BR) : I just do not like that Arizona is a favorite here. There is so much motivation involved, but I think Arizona State gets some additional juice with Dillingham especially because they are dogged at home to their rival here. This is another case of a pretty good defense not matching up well with an offense. Arizona ranks 14th in overall yards per play, but that's mostly on the strength of their pass defense, which has been very good. ASU isn't going to be relying much on the pass, rather the run, and that's where Arizona has been a bit subpar, and I think the Sun Devils will be able to run on them. ASU's defense has been solid in almost all areas all year and pressures the QB, so Fifita won't be able to just sit back there. Raleek Brown has he ability to break a run from anywhere, and if Sims concentrates on just running the ball and holding on to it, I like the Sun Devils chances. ASU has been uninspired in their last 2 home games, an outright loss to Houston and a 2 point escape against West Virginia. They'll give a much better effort here in front of their home fans in a rivalry setting, and I think if they do, the advantages on both sides of the ball will be evident.

I had faith in Dillingham and ASU here because I felt they had the ability to be the more physical team and play with resolve and purpose at home against their rival. Ultimately, they allowed Arizona and Brett Brennan to come into their house and shove them into a locker and make them like it. I did not see that coming, I have to admit.
 
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sevenpointroaddog said:
I don't think you're missing anything by skipping the weekly playoff rankings show. I've heard that it has been quite cringe- inducing this year.

This Ole Miss pick is interesting. It seems most people are itching to play Miss St. (as you were, initially). It could be wishful thinking, as everyone is assuming Kiffin will leave, and they don't like that. They want him to lose on the way out the door. It's tough to handicap the emotions here, so I'll be staying away, but your write- up seems clear- headed, and it sticks to what is known (statistically). Tomorrow, I guess we'll find out how much the emotions play into it, and whether or not they should have been factored into the handicap. Good luck this weekend.
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I'm same as you SPRD. Brass's handicap is right on the money. Miss State has one of the worst run defenses in the country and Lacy will probably run for 150, but I'm having a hard time pulling the trigger because of Lane's antics. I'll wait for the early reports tomorrow to see if anything new comes out and I may take Ole Miss late.

Good write-ups as usual, Brass
 
6. @Michigan +10 v Ohio State (BOL) : At this point, until Ohio State shows it can handle Michigan, I'm going to be playing the Wolverines, especially in Ann Arbor at this number. Obviously, there's huge motivation for Ohio State because of the rivalry, but Michigan's entire season hinges on this game while Ohio State's does not. I'm assuming both Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate are playing, but they certainly aren't 100% healthy and the weather is going to be less than ideal for the passing game. About the only thing Ohio State doesn't do at an elite level is run the ball and Michigan is very good against the run, so I think Ohio State will find the going rough in that regard. Offensively, Michigan isn't explosive, but they have 2 receivers that can get open in McCulley and the freshman Marsh, and if Big ten refs actually call Igbinosin for pass interference when he inevitably just unconsciously grabs who ever he's covering, the Wolverines might be able to sustain some drives. Overall, Michigan's offensive numbers are quietly pretty good. They can run it, and it looks like Jordan Marshall will be back for this game. They're also very good on third down, so I don't think we can assume total domination by the OSU defense. This is a game Ohio State obviously wants to win, but they are still going to the playoff in any case. As for Michigan, a win here can perhaps get them in the playoff if things break right. Ohio State is good enough to cover this obviously, but with the way this matchup has gone in recent years, I just can't see not taking the points here.

When Michigan had to kick 2 field goals after moving the ball pretty well on that defense, you knew they were doomed. Not upset with myself here because we needed to make Ohio State show they could do what was necessary in this rivalry and boy did they ever.
 
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7. Houston +3 @Baylor (BR) : Believe it or not, Houston is 8-3 and hasn't lost a game on the road this year. They haven't played anyone all that good other than Arizona State(who still had Sam Leavitt at that point) but they have been a pretty solid squad, especially on defense all year. They want to run the ball as much as possible, and Baylor is a perfect team to face if you feel that way because the Bears are 117th against the run. Both Dean Connors and especially QB Connor Weigmann have been effective running it in recent weeks, and Weigmann is capable of throwing the ball downfield as well, especially when he's not pressured, and Baylor can't pressure the QB. Overall on paper, I show Houston having the edges in most categories, and baylor is limping into this one off a couple of non-competitive losses. Houston is looking for a 9 win season, and I like Willie Fritz a lot more than Aranda in this spot. It creeped to 3, so I'll jump on who I think it the better team in this one.

Houston dominated the first 3 quarters but then got dominated until their last drive in the 4th quarter. Good job by Weigmann and Connors late to get the TD and secure a rare cover for me in the early going on Saturday.
 
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8. @Tennessee -2.5(-118) v Vanderbilt (BR) : Vandy has been a great story the past couple of years and a huge regret from last week was not laying it with the 'Dores coming off the bye against a Kentucky team that was injured and exhausted. This week, however, I do not like their matchup. As they've gone along through the season, the Vandy defense has regressed and has given up some big chunks of yards, especially on the road. Texas and Alabama both were approaching 500 yards against them, and Auburn shredded them a couple of weeks ago in Nashville too. Tennessee under Aguilar has been very good on offense, and I don't know that Vandy will be able to get stops against that passing game. Also, remember last year in a similar spot in Nashville, Vandy had by far it's worst performance of the year against the Heupel offense, giving up 538 yards to a Nico-led Vols offense. Vandy should also be able to move the ball on the Vol defense, but Tennessee will be able to get some stops at home making it tough for Vandy to keep up with this short spread.

Vandy has been absolutely dominant in the 4th quarter this year(except when I bet them at Alabama). It was 21-14 late in the first half and Tennessee was moving it at will, then after halftime, (vinyl record scratch)...domination. 24-3, and Vandy outgained Tennessee 582-382 for the game. That my friends, was pure domination and Tennessee was NOT the right side.
 
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9. Wake Forest +1.5 @Duke (BR) : I hate to simplify this, but there really shouldn't be any question on which of these teams is worthy of betting your hard earned money on. Duke is certainly not it, especially when there's anything of value on the line, and in this case, there is because they still have a chance to make the ACC title game if they get a little help. Unfortunately for Duke, they've pissed away any chance at good fortune every time they've had the opportunity, and Wake has found ways to win games like this. Wake's offense is limited, but they do have the ability to hit some explosive plays, and this is the kind of defense that even a challenged offense like Wake will have some comfort going against. They're 103rd in yards per play and 124th against the pass. They also can't get off the field on 3rd down(118th). Wake is the opposite of that, and they have a legitimately good defense under Jake Dickert, ranking 12th overall in yards per play against and 4th on 3rd down. I show Wake with edges all over the field, to the point to where I'd actually think they should be favored in the game. Duke also has been suspect at home, losing 3 times while they've had their best performances on the road. That won't help them this week. There's a lot of momentum behind where these two teams find themselves, so I'm inclined to trust Dickert and Wake here.

Wake outgained Duke 468-378 and on a per play basis 6.2 to 5.1. Duke had 34, 35, 13 and 11 yard TD drives thanks to 3 lost fumbles and an interception. Duke had the good fortune in that one. Not much you can do about it.
 
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10. Penn State -13.5 Rutgers (BOL) : As we know, Penn State has turned things around in recent weeks. They've handled business the past two weeks as a sizable favorite, and I think they'll do it again here against a team that probably brings up the rear in the pecking order of Penn State's opponents the past few weeks. Rutgers has what is probably the worst defense in power 4, and their offense has been regressing. Penn State is on a roll and should have no problem getting in the end one early and often against this Rutgers defense. Rutgers remains one of the worst bets in creation when it comes to playing as a home dog. They are 3-13 ATS since 2020 when Schiano got there for a second time while Penn State is 14-6 as a road favorite over that same time period. Even at this late juncture, Rutgers is giving up nearly 8 yards per play, dead last in FBS. They are also dead last by almost a full yard against the run when it comes to yards per play. How do you think Singleton and Allen will do against that defense?

Rutgers never did stop Penn State all day. The Nittany Lions averaged 9.42 yards per play(!!) but somehow went 1/8 on 3rd down. They could have probably scored 60 if they distributed the explosiveness better on 3rd down. The problem was that Rutgers brought out the offense again and Penn State couldn't stop it. Rutgers averaged 8.33 yards per play. Not too shabby either. Hard to cover 13.5 when you can't get off the field on defense.
 
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North Dakota is getting a point, and I think they win big vs Tenn Tech. Best bet this weekend.

I also see Pitt covering and even winning vs Miami. The high will be 35 degrees. Miami will be freaking out.

Good luck friend.
 
Smallmouth_bass said:
North Dakota is getting a point, and I think they win big vs Tenn Tech. Best bet this weekend.

I also see Pitt covering and even winning vs Miami. The high will be 35 degrees. Miami will be freaking out.

Good luck friend.
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Smallmouth I will find that Fighting Sioux game and bet it. I don't follow FCS at all but it's always fun to have a few bucks on it. I'm glad you brought up Pitt/Miami because I have opinions on it but can't make a play.

The long and short of that one is that I can't trust either team. I keep hearing all this chatter about how Pitt under Narduzzi has been great in these situations, but I can't find evidence of it. Maybe years ago on the road, but I think Pitt has come up small in big games more than they've come up big. Maybe the ND game is fresh in my mind, but I am not swayed by some suggestion that there's a pedigree thing for Pitt. On paper, this one is all Miami, and in some cases, it's a massive advantage for the 'Canes. Heintschel has had some success, but Miami's DL is likely to overpower the Pitt OL so he'll have to carry them and that seems like a tall task. On the flip side, who could possibly trust Miami and Cristobal in this spot? 35 degrees as you mention, plus Beck's history on the road with turnovers. I mean, Beck won't even be able to show off his cool tattoo sleeve it'll be so cold. Gun to head I'd lay it with Miami under a TD, but I can't recommend it wholeheartedly.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Smallmouth I will find that Fighting Sioux game and bet it. I don't follow FCS at all but it's always fun to have a few bucks on it. I'm glad you brought up Pitt/Miami because I have opinions on it but can't make a play.

The long and short of that one is that I can't trust either team. I keep hearing all this chatter about how Pitt under Narduzzi has been great in these situations, but I can't find evidence of it. Maybe years ago on the road, but I think Pitt has come up small in big games more than they've come up big. Maybe the ND game is fresh in my mind, but I am not swayed by some suggestion that there's a pedigree thing for Pitt. On paper, this one is all Miami, and in some cases, it's a massive advantage for the 'Canes. Heintschel has had some success, but Miami's DL is likely to overpower the Pitt OL so he'll have to carry them and that seems like a tall task. On the flip side, who could possibly trust Miami and Cristobal in this spot? 35 degrees as you mention, plus Beck's history on the road with turnovers. I mean, Beck won't even be able to show off his cool tattoo sleeve it'll be so cold. Gun to head I'd lay it with Miami under a TD, but I can't recommend it wholeheartedly.
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Hey BK, you should jump into @s--k 's FCS thread, because those guys know their stuff and there is money to be made with the first round of the playoffs kicking off in a few hours. Best of luck today man!
 
11. Missouri -4 @Arkansas (BOL) : I put this in at the beginning of the week at -2 and now it's 4, but i still think this is the right side. Usually when looking at dogs under a certain number (and I know I've mentioned this before) I need to have some sort of inclination that the dog can in fact win the game outright. If we're talking 2 TDs or something I might take points if I think they have no shot at the outright, but even then, I probably need to have some idea that they could win in extreme circumstances. The one exception to this was Arkansas as a road dog, and it worked beautifully until last week. There's no exception for the Hogs as a home dog, though, and over the past few weeks, Arkansas has proven they cannot win. They certainly won't beat Eliah Drinkwitz who has had their number since he's been at Missouri. Also, it seems like the Hogs have finally packed it in, especially on defense, which was evident last week at Texas. The Mizzou offense will get some class relief after playing at Oklahoma last week, and I'm sure Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts will both be able to run wild against that Arkansas defense. Ultimately, the chances of Arkansas bucking tradition and winning the game are very low. Even though the line has creeped up, I don't think it's wise to assume a short Arkansas loss has a more than 50% chance of happening vs any other outcome, especially when we don't even know who's going to be playing QB for Arkansas. Backup KJ Jackson played the second half after Taylen Green was cleared to come back into the game, and Petrino hasn't said who's going to play. I like the Tigers here.

Arkansas might have been the best winless conference team of all time. They legit had one of the top 5 offenses in college football but were totally incapable of figuring out how to play winning football.
 
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12. @Washington +7 v Oregon : (BOL) : If Oregon was fully healthy I would probably be looking at the Ducks here but they are anything but that. It looks like their receivers will again miss this game, and they have some guys out on the offensive line as well. We all know the difference between home Washington and road Washington, and the Huskies, although they have been banged up themselves, appear to be healthy again and that's huge because they struggle with depth. They were able to hammer UCLA last week despite sitting a lot of their guys out(WR Boston and RB Coleman most notably). Defensively, Washington has quietly been very good, raking 17th in yards per play against, 24th against the run and 11th against the pass on a per play basis. Even when healthier, Oregon has barely snuck by in a couple of their road games(Penn State in OT, Iowa by 2) and I think you can make a case that HOME Washington is better than both of those teams. The Huskies will be out for blood in this rivalry so we can expect max effort from them. If Oregon has a couple breaks go against them they can lose this one outright, so I'll take the TD.

Kudos to Oregon. Washington just didn't seem to have it on offense, but the Oregon defense is very good, especially in the back end. Also, they were down to their 3rd and 4th receivers (Benson and McClellan) and those two looked as good as any starters from all but about 4 or 5 teams in FBS. Benson made a huge play on the 64 yard TD, and MCClellan almost made(did make) about as good a catch as you'll ever see. Dante Moore played great against a solid defense in one of the toughest venues in college football. Quite a performance by the Ducks.
 
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13. Cincinnati+3.5 @TCU (BOL): Here's another one that I'd call a bit of a flyer. I think this is going to come down to the very end, a coin flip kind of game. As a result of that. I'll take the 3.5. I really like Cincinati's offense, and I think they'll have a pretty clear edge on that side of the field. TCU's offense is also pretty good, but I trust Sorsby and the running backs of Cincy a lot more than I trust their counterparts. TCU can't really run the ball, and although Josh Hoover has had flashes of brilliance, he's also thrown 14 picks, and the TCU offense regularly sees their scoreboard total underperform the box score. Also, Sorsby never gets sacked and the Frogs are 106th in sack rate, so he's going to have all day back there to pick them apart. Cincy has lost 3 in a row, so they aren't in great form, but they've had some bad breaks that might even out against a team that tends to have them happen against them.

Blah blah blah bad play. Cincy is a pretender. I still don't have much faith in TCU but Cincy isn't the right team to pull off what I hoped they would.
 
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14. James Madison -23.5 @Coastal Carolina (BR) : If this was 24 I'd be fine with it too. I think JMU is going to maul Coastal here. Coastal was awful until they caught lightning in a bottle after they inserted Samari Collier(former Illini!) at QB. He runs it well and gave them some juice, but he's out for the year and I couldn't even tell you what stiff they have in there now. This is a complete mismatch on paper, and JMU has bullied teams in this position before during the season. They also have incentive to do it because they need style points to sneak in the playoff if more carnage happens in the American. The past 3 years in this "rivalry" JMU has Coastal by 32, 42 and 40 points, and the gulf between the teams is much deeper this year than in those years. This looks like a 59-10 game to me.

Not bad.
 
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15. @Virginia -8 v Virginia Tech(BR) : There's a lot of risk in laying this because of the lot in life Virginia has led over the past 20 years in this rivalry, but the difference this year is too stark. Virginia Tech cannot throw the ball effectively(based on the games when I've bet them), they can only run with Drones, and the UVa defense has been good all year both against the run and the pass. They've also been very good on 3rd down, and this is true on both sides of the ball. The VT defense has been porous all year, terrible especially on 3rd down(120th) while UVa is ranked 10th converting them. Chandler Morris can be had under pressure, but VT hasn't been able to get pressure all year. If UVa was on the road, this might make sense at 8, but not in Charlottesville. It's just a terrible matchup for the Hokies. If you were going to bet them in this spot, it would be based all on past voodoo, and although I'm worried about that, I think the Cavs will do what they need to do in this one.

This was a rocking chair winner from the start. VT finally did what they were supposed to do and sucked when I bet against them.
 
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16. @USC -21.5 v UCLA (BOL) : UCLA is a totally dead team. They had a nice run in the middle of the season, but that is all over now and it was evident last week when Washington rested half their team and still pounded them 48-14. Yes, the same Washington team that can't get out of it's own way on the road. It looks like Nico Iamaleava is banged up and might not play, but even if he does, he went 16/26 for 69 yards last week. The Bruins don't pressure the QB(134th) and rank dead last defensively on 3rd down, so this USC offense won't have any issues being comfortable in this one. Nebraska stiff TJ Lateef averaged 13.6 yards per attempt against the Bruins two weeks ago, what's Maiva going to do? This is at the Colosseum too, so the USC defense is likely to play well also. UCLA is just trying to get this season over with. This one's gonna be all USC.

Not sure what happened here. USC put the wood to UCLA in the last 8 minutes or so but they spent the first 52 minutes playing the role of Bernie in "Weekend at Bernie's" . In other words, they were the dead team, not UCLA. They ended up winning by 19, but the slow waltz they did with UCLA throughout most of the game killed any possibility of a cover.
 
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17. @Auburn +6 v Alabama (BOL) : There's major risk of SEC refs screwing Auburn, which they've spent all season thus far doing, but call me a masochist but i still like this play. The Auburn offense has been bad all year, but since they axed Hugh Freeze, (and apparently the 5 different play callers depending on down?) they have looked like a much cleaner operation. They put up 500+ yards on Vandy on the road 2 weeks ago with both of their stud receivers(Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton) finally getting the ball(both had 100+ rushing yards). Ashton Daniels also ran the ball well as did RB Jeremiah Cobb. It was Mercer last week, but they're a top5 FSC squad and it was more of the same. Alabama has had a great year, but they are beatable, especially at Jordan Hare at night. Nick Saban called that place a haunted house and couldn't quite figure out how to avoid disaster there, now Kalen DeBeoer, with all of his road struggles, is going to do better? in the last 4 times they've played this game at Auburn, Auburn lost by 3 in a miracle finish as a 13 point dog, lost by 2 as a 22 point dog, won outright 48-45 as a 3 point dog and won outright 26-14 as a 6 point dog. All of those Bama teams were coached by Saban and were significantly better than this one. Auburn has nothing to lose, everything to gain, and now they have the added wrinkle of Duece Knight, who they unleashed last week as another QB option and all he did was account for 6 TDs and 400+ total yards. Defensively, Auburn is great against the run and held their own all year overall. Despite the terrible offense, they had Georgia down virtually 17-0 until they were screwed, they were screwed out of two TD's at Oklahoma and should have won that game, and had some questionable shenanigans against them against Missouri and Vandy. Auburn is due about 100 pounds of good fortune this year. If they just avoid more of the bad, I think they can win this.

There is no chance, for as long as I live that I will get an outcome holding a -6 ticket on a favorite given the circumstances we saw in the last 3 minutes of that game. The game was tied with 3 minutes left on 4th and Goal from the 6 and DeBoer goes for the TD rather than just kicking the go ahead FG. How many of you could ever hope for such shenanigans to happen in your favor? I can't fathom it. Naturally Auburn had some bad calls go against them, as usual. I'm the dummy that damn well KNEW that would happen but bet it anyway.
 
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18. @Cal +13.5 v SMU (BOL) : SMU has everything riding on this, and they have a tough roadie to Cal to sew it up. I think we are looking at a spread this big because of what SMU did to Louisville last week, but that was more a problem for Louisville having to play exclusively backups and just punting that game more than anything else. Cal has some players, and they can exploit Smu's shaky pass defense, this game is going to be close. Cal launched Justin Wilcox, who I've always liked, but Nick Rolovich has taken over and he knows what he's doing having already run a successful program at Washington State. Cal can't stop the run but SMU doesn't run it much...the SMU offense is actually a pretty good matchup for Cal's defense because they are good against the pass. They'll be looking to bounce back after the Stanford loss and might get the dead team bounce a lot of teams get after the coach gets fired. I'm just not sold on SMU here. Lots of pressure on them to perform on the road against a team that performs well as a dog.

Cover never in doubt but the Bears had to score late and hold off the Mustangs to win it. Tough break for SMU. I was rooting for them to lose because I thought Miami had the next tie breaker but I was wrong. Duke has the tie breaker. Had I known that I would have been rooting for SMU.
 
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19. UNLV -7 @Nevada (BOL) : I got this at -115, but if you wait you might not have to lay any extra juice. It seems everyone is on Nevada, apparently on the strength of their last two wins. Their defense is alright, but they haven't played many offenses the caliber of this UNLV squad. They are multiple in that they can run it both with the RB and Thomas and QB Collandrea, and they have a good pass offense also, ranked 19th in yards per pass attempt. Not to mention that they convery 3rd downs at a high rate. As I mentioned, Nevada has been good the past two weeks but there is a lot of manure on this resume, even at home in Reno. They lost at home to Middle Tennessee, got destroyed by San Diego State 44-10 at home and got blanked by a shorthanded Boise team. Their offense is not good with a QB Carter Smith who has 6 TDs and 8 INTs for the year. UNLV has been weak defensively, bit somehow they get stops, ranking 3rd (!!) on 3rd downs. The Rebels are 9-2 and the Wolf Pack is 3-8 for a reason. I show UNLV with major edges in almost every area, they should handle the Wolf Pack, even though there's been some weird goings on in this series.

Easy winner here. Nevada just didn't have the offense to cover this. They could have put traffic cones down in a defensive formation and Nevada would have a hard time scoring.
 
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20. @Hawaii -7 v Wyoming (BOL) : Last one, I promise. This line has fallen from more than 10 all the way down to 7, and I can't figure out why. Maybe someone knows something? I've scoured everything I can find, but other than a n injury to Hawaii's LB Otis, that's all I found. Wyoming's defense has been pretty good lately, especially against the pass, but that didn't stop them from losing at home to Nevada last week because their offense has been terrible. In their last 3 games, they've managed 185, 184 and 220 total yards. I don't suspect they'll do much better on the island because Hawaii's defense isn't bad, and not surprisingly, they are much better at home, having completely shut down San Diego State in a 38-6 blowout a couple weeks ago and have held everybody else on their home schedule other than Utah State(who they blew out anyway) to under 300 yards. The Warriors are 19-6-1 ATS since Timmy Chang took over in 2022 and 11-1 ATS at home since the start of last year. Maybe Wyoming catches some sort of offensive lightning, but there's not much evidence to suggest any likelihood of that.

Bows a menace at home. Wyoing can't score. No need to make it complicated.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
17. @Auburn +6 v Alabama (BOL) : There's major risk of SEC refs screwing Auburn, which they've spent all season thus far doing, but call me a masochist but i still like this play. The Auburn offense has been bad all year, but since they axed Hugh Freeze, (and apparently the 5 different play callers depending on down?) they have looked like a much cleaner operation. They put up 500+ yards on Vandy on the road 2 weeks ago with both of their stud receivers(Cam Coleman and Eric Singleton) finally getting the ball(both had 100+ rushing yards). Ashton Daniels also ran the ball well as did RB Jeremiah Cobb. It was Mercer last week, but they're a top5 FSC squad and it was more of the same. Alabama has had a great year, but they are beatable, especially at Jordan Hare at night. Nick Saban called that place a haunted house and couldn't quite figure out how to avoid disaster there, now Kalen DeBeoer, with all of his road struggles, is going to do better? in the last 4 times they've played this game at Auburn, Auburn lost by 3 in a miracle finish as a 13 point dog, lost by 2 as a 22 point dog, won outright 48-45 as a 3 point dog and won outright 26-14 as a 6 point dog. All of those Bama teams were coached by Saban and were significantly better than this one. Auburn has nothing to lose, everything to gain, and now they have the added wrinkle of Duece Knight, who they unleashed last week as another QB option and all he did was account for 6 TDs and 400+ total yards. Defensively, Auburn is great against the run and held their own all year overall. Despite the terrible offense, they had Georgia down virtually 17-0 until they were screwed, they were screwed out of two TD's at Oklahoma and should have won that game, and had some questionable shenanigans against them against Missouri and Vandy. Auburn is due about 100 pounds of good fortune this year. If they just avoid more of the bad, I think they can win this.
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The last team Saban took to JH was significantly worse than this years team. It was his best coaching job ever to get that team an SEC Championship and in the playoffs. From the horses’ mouth, he thought it was an 8-4 team at best. None of that matters of course tonight, and you have plenty of company on this side. Still love reading your breakdowns, you’re a big part of what makes this site great
 
Br@ssknux said:
19. UNLV -7 @Nevada (BOL) : I got this at -115, but if you wait you might not have to lay any extra juice. It seems everyone is on Nevada, apparently on the strength of their last two wins. Their defense is alright, but they haven't played many offenses the caliber of this UNLV squad. They are multiple in that they can run it both with the RB and Thomas and QB Collandrea, and they have a good pass offense also, ranked 19th in yards per pass attempt. Not to mention that they convery 3rd downs at a high rate. As I mentioned, Nevada has been good the past two weeks but there is a lot of manure on this resume, even at home in Reno. They lost at home to Middle Tennessee, got destroyed by San Diego State 44-10 at home and got blanked by a shorthanded Boise team. Their offense is not good with a QB Carter Smith who has 6 TDs and 8 INTs for the year. UNLV has been weak defensively, bit somehow they get stops, ranking 3rd (!!) on 3rd downs. The Rebels are 9-2 and the Wolf Pack is 3-8 for a reason. I show UNLV with major edges in almost every area, they should handle the Wolf Pack, even though there's been some weird goings on in this series.
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Nice job being patient on this one as I have 8 120, well done!
 
Br@ssknux said:
14. James Madison -23.5 @Coastal Carolina (BR) : If this was 24 I'd be fine with it too. I think JMU is going to maul Coastal here. Coastal was awful until they caught lightning in a bottle after they inserted Samari Collier(former Illini!) at QB. He runs it well and gave them some juice, but he's out for the year and I couldn't even tell you what stiff they have in there now. This is a complete mismatch on paper, and JMU has bullied teams in this position before during the season. They also have incentive to do it because they need style points to sneak in the playoff if more carnage happens in the American. The past 3 years in this "rivalry" JMU has Coastal by 32, 42 and 40 points, and the gulf between the teams is much deeper this year than in those years. This looks like a 59-10 game to me.
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Dead nailed this one.
 
gps_3 said:
The last team Saban took to JH was significantly worse than this years team. It was his best coaching job ever to get that team an SEC Championship and in the playoffs. From the horses’ mouth, he thought it was an 8-4 team at best. None of that matters of course tonight, and you have plenty of company on this side. Still love reading your breakdowns, you’re a big part of what makes this site great
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Thanks for the kind words GPS. I'm sure you're right about '23 Alabama. I should have said something like "those Bama teams generally were at a different level than this one" or something like that, and just having Saban as the coach differentiates them against anyone, nothing against DeBoer who I have a very high opinion of.

When you bet on Auburn, ultimately you will end up with that sinking feeling as the game ends. At least this year anyway.
 
for the week: 9-11. For the year....102-103-5. Was just hoping to get over .500...oh well. On to the bowls. Will work on recaps some this morning and then later today. Thanks for all the engagement and to everyone for reading.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Thanks for the kind words GPS. I'm sure you're right about '23 Alabama. I should have said something like "those Bama teams generally were at a different level than this one" or something like that, and just having Saban as the coach differentiates them against anyone, nothing against DeBoer who I have a very high opinion of.

When you bet on Auburn, ultimately you will end up with that sinking feeling as the game ends. At least this year anyway.
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Last night was kind of the inverse of the OU game. I think you can make an argument that both sides were the “right” side. But you’re right about Auburn. They are proficient at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
 
North Dakota rolled as the easiest bet of day, but Pitt sucked! Sorry about that.

Good luck and keep posting! Early thoughts…won’t Indiana care a lot more about winning next week than OSU? Why would OSU care? I could even see them resting starters? I’m leaning Indiana.
 
Gonna have to spend some time on that but yes, I'm guessing the motivational angle will be favoring Indiana. Huge pro-IU crowd expected. Not that there won't be Buckeyes there. I big key will be to test the OSU corners deep early.
 
Br@ssknux said:
4. Texas A&M -2.5 @ Texas (BOL) : I know that there's a lot of speculation that A&M could do down in this spot for the first time all year, and A&M has a pedigree of losing games like this, but I think the Elko effect has taken hold in College Station to the point where this team is going to find a way to win. They'e gone on the road and won at Notre Dame, at Arkansas when they didn't have their A game, and then won by a comfortable margin against LSU and Missouri on the road, scoring 49 and 38 points respectively against two very good defenses. Texas has played well on defense at times this year, but they have tossed out some pretty weak performances as well, giving up 400+ or close to it to Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Vandy and of course Arkansas. Texas A&M is ranked 11th in yards per play on offense and is better than most if not all of those aforementioned offenses. They've got playmakers all over the field, and although they are in great shape for the playoff, they don't need any additional motivation in this game. Texas has 3 losses, and might think they have a shot at the playoff if they win this one, but most observers assume they are out even with a win over A&M here. Defensively, A&M matches up very well with Texas. Their biggest Achilles Heel is run defense, and Texas hasn't been able to run it on anyone this year. Arch Manning has been much better lately, but those have been in comfortable positions against pretty poor pass defenses. The top 3 pass defenses they've played are UTEP, Ohio State and Georgia, and all three mostly completely shut down Arch. A&M ranks better than all of them, save Ohio State. A&M is #1 in the country in 3rd down defense as well as sacks allowed, and there is a major mismatch up front at the line of scrimmage between this Texas OL(which has struggled mightily all year). I expect Manning to be running for his life, and that is tough for any QB. If Texas knocks off the Aggies, I'll tip my cap, because they just haven't demonstrated a pedigree to win games like this.

So much for the Elko effect. A&M looked just like they always have in big games over the past 20-25 years. They didn't really need this game and it showed because they got pushed around all game. Texas came in at 101st in yards per carry on offense and Wisner went for 155 yards on 19 carries. When Wingo made that acrobatic catch when nobody was within 20 yards of him in the back of the endzone, A&M was down 3 despite Manning being 8/20 for 50 yards. A real contender would have been up 14-17 points at that point. After that, the Aggies just got run off the field. Manning made some great plays and the rest was history. Bad call by me. A&M was not worthy of the faith.
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I made the same mistake you did. I have known for my entire betting life that rule #1 is never rely on the Aggies to do anything, and yet they were my #1 pick. Reed injuring his ankle might have made a small difference, but Texas looked bigger, faster, and more interested

I didn't have the Bama/Auburn game, but noticed the same thing you did. Utah State did the same thing except they did it twice. They had a five-point lead and twice in the fourth quarter went for it on fourth and long instead of kicking the FG and failed both times. Cost them the game. I see it two or three times every weekend

I think a lot of coaches are unclear on the concept of what the analytics say about going for it on fourth down.
 
gps_3 said:
Last night was kind of the inverse of the OU game. I think you can make an argument that both sides were the “right” side. But you’re right about Auburn. They are proficient at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
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That's a good point. Those games were very similar. The good news for Bama is that they can win when Simpson averages 3.5 yards per attempt. I wouldn't have thought that possible coming in.
 
Br@ssknux said:
That's a good point. Those games were very similar. The good news for Bama is that they can win when Simpson averages 3.5 yards per attempt. I wouldn't have thought that possible coming in.
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He got beat up against AU, and I think he was already playing hurt. But he has pretty consistently made the plays that needed to be made this season, OU game excluded
 
gps_3 said:
He got beat up against AU, and I think he was already playing hurt. But he has pretty consistently made the plays that needed to be made this season, OU game excluded
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He's a playmaker. 3 TDs, no picks despite the pressure.
 
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