Week #14 of the NFL


CTG Partner
It's totally late, so i'm gonna rush this. Just the Thursday Night game for now...the weekend's gonna have to wait.
Coming off an excellent 5-0-1 Week #13, and hoping it'll continue.

Pittsburgh (-7) over Cleveland (-106) for 2 units

Cleveland/Pittsburgh over 33.5 (+101) for 1 unit

Steelers have been pretty good at home this year, despite everything else. Brownies won for me last week...but they were fortunate KC couldn't tackle. Plus, we got a QB making his first NFL start (with Frye hurt), on a team that struggles to run the ball.
IMO, this is really no different than last week's win over TB. Very similar, except i give TB the nod w/ the Brownie QB injury. Should be a very similar win at home for the Steelers.
That said, i did also throw a unit on the over. Contrarian, yes...but also situational, imo. In any case, thinking a 31-12 Steeler win...with at least 10 pts comign off of turnovers.

Good luck tonight.:cheers:
Thx, Steel. Side was great...but i was VERY lucky to squeeze by on that small over play as well. If your Steelers would only get to play every game at home, they'd have a shot at repeating.

Great call, Pay. Your number was very close to the total. And your system nailed the side.
Nice hit on the game, I disagree about squeaking by in the over, you made the right call, there were so many missed oppurtunites especially by Pitt...The score should have been more like you predicted....You deserved that over if i didnt hit I would felt like we got robbed.....
adding some for sunday

4 home teams getting no love from the public...

Kansas City (-3) over Baltimore (+104) for 3 units

Tampa Bay (+3) over Atlanta (+111) for 2 units

Jacksonville ML (-103) over Indianapolis for 2 units

Washington ML (+103) over Philadelphia for 2 units

More later on these games...at a more reasonable hour. But...
Love KC at home. Vick is due for another step back. Indy can be had, again. And i'm not ready to give Garcia any love just yet.

Going against the public. Thats an interesting play on the bucs. If the falcons lose this game, they should fire Knapp and leave vick in tampa. Tampa is god awful.. but well see with this one.
TB always plays the Falcons well...with great ATS #'s. And the Falcons are nothing to write home about either. Mini-Mora is gonzo after the season. Herpes-boy is a joke of a QB.

Anyways, I don't fade the public, per se. But when the play makes sense, and that's how i cap it...i don't mind being against the public one bit. Actually, i do kinda like it.
baltimore always struggles on the road and kc will be focused at home not to mention denver is on the road at san diego....a two game swing since it does not seem likely denver will beat the chargers since a win will clinch the west..i also luv ur call on the bucs..atl's secondary couldnt stop me from throwing completions :)
adding some more for Sunday...

Three more home teams...two of which are also coincidentally going against the public. The other, my smallest play of the day, is definitely public though...lol.
But seriously...have you ever seen a week where so many of the games were so one-sided, in terms of over 75% of the public going one way...especially on road teams???
It'll be interesting, for sure. Anyways, the final 3 for Sunday...

Houston (-1) over Tennessee (-107) for 2 units

Arizona (+3) over Seattle (-105) for 2 units

San Diego (-8) over Denver (+103) for 1 unit

Still deciding on the nightcap. I must have gone back & forth three or four times now on either Dallas or New Orleans. That alone should tell me to lay off...but we'll see.

Good luck today :drink:
Fro :shake: Let's nail the both of them, bro.

biggoob :shake: KC is definitely my favorite play of the day.

Pay :shake: And now it's even 3 more, lol. We agree on all 7 of my plays, which definitely has never happened before...as far as i can recall. So i'll take that as an incredibly good omen. In any case, we'll sink or swin together, dude.

Thx Taz. :shake: Awesome to see ya over here. BOL today, bud.
ok, i may have lied. after going through all the great threads here, i got some more leans, lol. kinda liking minny, maybe even NE, kinda liking the gb/sf over...and now definitely leaning back NO's way in the late one.

none of these are plays, just (late) leans...as it's still only the 7 plays above for now.
that said, i'm gonna go take another look at these games...and see what i can find.

niffel forum is definitely looking good, boys and girls. good stuff all around.