-week 14 ncaaf-

broadwayjoe

broadwayjoe

May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
ytd: +5.60

well i had a bad week record-wise, but was able to grind out a small profit after crushing my big plays of oklahoma for 5units (actually doubled that as i alluded to, but couldn't post it officially so won't count it) and gt for 3units. if only they were all that easy.

BIG PLAY - 5 units - Western Michigan +11
Western Michigan ML +330

i actually think this is the better all around team. it's the first time all year that nate davis is not the significantly better qb. wmu playing on more rest, has the better defense and imo a NEAR equally explosive offense. thought and still think this wmu team is the best in the mac. not many great lines to bet them this year, but this is an absolute joke that they are double digit dogs here. more thoughts to come in the discussion thread, but i love this one, and i'm positive it's a bad line. i'll get to the rest of the week today and tomorrow as i'm a little behind.
 
not a good start (-5.50) with western michigan not being able to exploit ball state like i thought they would, and more importantly not being able to get off the field on 3rd down...give a lot of credit to nate davis(who should be in heisman talks btw), sure, but i think that there was awful playcalling both ways for wmu. the rough start def didn't help, and maybe the travel woes had something to do with that...either way, after the last drive of the first half i was pretty much counting on that one being a loss...

turkey day...

Tamu/Texas UNDER 68.5

friday...

Pitt +3.5

Miami OH +1

Temple -2.5

sat...

Florida St +17 (-120)

Clemson -1

Scar/Clemson UNDER 41

happy thanksgiving everybody...do something to help somebody out for how fortunate we all are in the big picture. be safe and don't get behind the wheel while being all wasted on this huge bar night...everyone wants to have a good safe time, no need to ruin it...but by all means...drink until you can't think thoughts if you're not getting behind the wheel. best holiday of the year...
 
i was really surprised by wmu's play last night, sorta went from a really disciplined squad to shitting the bed almost instantly.
 
yeah it's too bad neil, looked like they had never been in a big game before. was expecting better coaching, execution, and defense
 
nice call on the under last night joe. i sweated out the win on the side myself. been trying to pull the trigger on toledo and something keeps stopping me. looks like the perfect situation with the closeout at home for tom...they have a very strong record on home finales anyway. bg does look like the better squad (performance wise, i think toledo actually is very talented)...wondered if you looked at this one...as always, your my mac guy! may tail you on temple, loooked into it a bit and it looks solid.
 
the couple of things you have mentioned as well as that demoralizing loss from bg have kept me off of bg, but i definitely lean that way scraps. i don't think hfa will be much of anything at the glass bowl with an early game the day after thanksgiving...i could be wrong but just don't see it. i thought this line should be 3.5 or 4. toledo basically expected to win this vs a team that imo is vastly superior is a little bit of a stretch. and bg is actually performing better against the number on the road if i'm not mistaken. just don't even see toledo slowing bg down at all....tough to take an inferior team when i expect the other team to get to 40+. i think this is bg or no play, but don't wanna disuade you too much, as i don't have enough confidence to make it a play myself. bol if you decide to play it

i'm still lookin at kent and emu, both likely plays --and also fresno which is about 50/50 at this point
 
thanks joe. bounced back and forth and may be on the over if anything. will be against you on kent and lean boise in the other. great day yesterday, would love to run it through the weekend. gl (except ksu)...
 
why boise scraps? i've been awful with fading them this year, but 3 tds seems ridiculous even for a fresno team that has been overrated most of the year...i'm looking for reasons to not play fresno
 
the blue. it's magic...seems silly but no way i play against them there. i do think they will bring it today too. it is a big number (inflated) but i think they actually have a good chance to cover it. i realize i am not giving you reasons beyond my instincts,,,by the way...my local called while i was writing this and has buf-10, no fucking way...may not be against you!...so back to boise...on paper you are correct, but my gut says boise...i would guess i leave it alone. really hate the lines this week...have lsu and neb circled as my only sure plays (had buf cir at 8.5). maybe i will find something in the association.
 
thanks for the reply scraps...i'm likely laying off that game...i don't think i've won a boise game this year. lots of games i like in the nba although i'm coming off a few bad days

added:

Kent +10
 
sorry you missed emu, looks like they are taking it to the chips (no play for me there). i did get down on temple and the over, ole miss as well in the early ones.
 
ended up playing buf and from watching the first couple of series, i think you are on the right side. impulse play for me... completely intended to lay off...discipline breakdown!
 
6-2 +1.65 so far...

complete card for saturday:

Florida St +17 (-120)

Clemson -1

Scar/Clemson UNDER 41

added plays:

NC State ML +110

Virginia Tech -8 (-105)

Georgia Tech +7.5/ML +230

Kansas +16.5

Baylor +22.5

Oregon ML +135

Oklahoma State +8

all the others (leans):

cinci
ucf
n texas
la tech
nm state
smu
md
duke
tulane
houston
marshall
fau
tenn
wake
nd
haw
 
with you on ncst and gtech. against you on clem. got my ass handed to me yesterday! bailed out a bit by 3-0 nba night. on unr and tulsa too so may be against you there. looks like you have a pretty good handle on things right now so i am a little concerned. gl with all the rest joe!
 
Goodluck!! I'm on alot of those with you. Big Score last night with ASU. I also did that and made a parlay with the under 44 1/2. Got really lucky.

BOL!!
 
scraps, thanks man...understand why you would like scar. i will definitely not be playing against ya on unr and tulsa...just a small lean and probably 2 of the lightest leans. hope we can cash ncstate and gt. bol

thanks knox, what a game changing pick 6 that was deep in asu territory. but i felt that i still capped the game okay because i was counting on a couple turnovers by ucla ..that has been the achilles to their offense for sure this year
 
pretty solid run joe. i'm about to toss all my papers aside and start tailing you! another rocky one for me. need tenn and wake to make a decent day. keep rolling...
 
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