Week 14 ML Dogs

JROCK1966 said:
I think I've come full circle on this....another result that may occur (and the one which I think will happen) is sometimes after getting rid of a cancer (maybe too strong a term as I really don't know Kelvin Joseph) teams play much better. The distraction is gone....players who have bought in get to play and the overall team performance sometimes improves. I was watching Stoops presser yesterday and he sounded determined and confident...not the "aloof" that occurs whenever they end up losing as a fav.

Cats will run the ball well enough to get the win methinks....esp. if CRod is back!
Click to expand...

you all over the place on this one bud, lol.
 
s--k said:
Wasn't there a story that Washington offered to play BYU 2 weeks ago and BYU declined?

I give BYU credit. It is hard doing what they do midweek make a gameplan, arrange travel across country to play a road game vs a good team. That deserves credit for sure.

At the same time, if Liberty and Coastal were set to be say...CBS Sportsnetwork, I'm not so sure it happens.
Click to expand...

not sure about the udub thing, that would be disappointing if true.
 
I'm taking a shot on Rice tomorrow.

Rice is averaging over 100 yards more per game on O in 3 games this year than their 2019 team (404 vs 294).

They did lead 10-0 in their last game at NTex, but lost 17-27. What I find really interesting about that game is that they accumulated 221 yards over the first 22 minutes of that game yet only had 10 points to show for it (fumble at the 28, SOD at the 11). Then, I can't explain what happened next, neither can their head coach. He says they just stopped doing what they had been doing. I don't know.

I see a competent passing game this year behind Mike Collins. He is actually #1 CUSA in yards per game and passer rating! Has a 10-1 ratio. Pretty good, albeit in just 3 games vs some let's say "soft" defenses (MTSU, SMiss, UNT). That being true, it's still a substantial upgrade to what the Owls got out of the position last year. A couple decent WRs and some solid TEs provide the targets. Trammel leads the way (#2 CUSA receiving yards per game). The OL has 84 career starts with carryover from last year, everyone starting this year started atleast a couple games last season. The unit is led by All-CUSA RG Shea Baker with his 27 career starts and Soph LT Servin who's started 11 straight (17 career). Still, OL is not a team strength for the Owls and leaves some vulnerability, was likely a better overall unit last season. You can probably guess the kind of ball Bloomgren wants to play being a former Stanford OC...Rice leads CUSA in TOP per game. It's not necessarily an overwhelming RB group.

Defense, Rice is pretty solid. Last season, despite their 3-5 CUSA record, the Owls ranked 6th in league scoring D and 5th in total D (4th run D). The unit brought back 89% of their tacklers, led by a strong LB unit (Alldredge and Chamberlin). Phil Steele calls it one of the LB groups best in CUSA. They have an up-and-comer at NT and a solid veteran at DT (Garcia), but it's not a DL that creates a lot of pressure of negative plays, more less they occupy the OL to allow the outstanding LBs to make plays. They had some decent DBs...but I am concerned that 3 of the returning starters have not played yet this season although 2 of the 3 remain on the roster. ?

Last year the Rice D held Marshall to their 3rd lowest offensive output through Herd's first 9 games. The only team to hold them under 400y, the others being Boise and Cincy. Marshall won that game 20-7. If Rice can get a similar performance out of their D, the offense should be in better position this year to compete.

Marshall's O is good, but haven't been forced to do much, haven't played any good teams other than App St back in September. I'm hopeful that Rice presents a challenge to them like few teams have this year.

Rice plays clean, smart football they have the fewest penalty yards and calls against them in the nation, which isn't a fluke, they ranked first last season with the fewest penalties and yards per game as well.

In the meaningless stat category, this is Rice's first regular season/non-bowl game played in December since they beat Marshall for the CUSA Title in 2013.

It's one of those games, I mean, you bet a 20+ point dog to win, you are kind of walking into a situation that you are going to be wrong quite a bit more often than you're right. But I'm going to do it, you don't win bets like this if you don't take chances on them. I'm going to say that Marshall isn't really as impressive as their 7-0 record implies. Their only two wins vs teams with winning records were 17-7 vs App and 20-9 vs FAU. I think Rice could surprise here.
 
Rice lived in scoring range the entire 1st half of that n.Texas game. As you said had 10 stinking points to show for it. Their offense is maddening but I do like their d and think they can stay within the number. I like under 45.
 
s--k said:
I'm taking a shot on Rice tomorrow.

Rice is averaging over 100 yards more per game on O in 3 games this year than their 2019 team (404 vs 294).

They did lead 10-0 in their last game at NTex, but lost 17-27. What I find really interesting about that game is that they accumulated 221 yards over the first 22 minutes of that game yet only had 10 points to show for it (fumble at the 28, SOD at the 11). Then, I can't explain what happened next, neither can their head coach. He says they just stopped doing what they had been doing. I don't know.

I see a competent passing game this year behind Mike Collins. He is actually #1 CUSA in yards per game and passer rating! Has a 10-1 ratio. Pretty good, albeit in just 3 games vs some let's say "soft" defenses (MTSU, SMiss, UNT). That being true, it's still a substantial upgrade to what the Owls got out of the position last year. A couple decent WRs and some solid TEs provide the targets. Trammel leads the way (#2 CUSA receiving yards per game). The OL has 84 career starts with carryover from last year, everyone starting this year started atleast a couple games last season. The unit is led by All-CUSA RG Shea Baker with his 27 career starts and Soph LT Servin who's started 11 straight (17 career). Still, OL is not a team strength for the Owls and leaves some vulnerability, was likely a better overall unit last season. You can probably guess the kind of ball Bloomgren wants to play being a former Stanford OC...Rice leads CUSA in TOP per game. It's not necessarily an overwhelming RB group.

Defense, Rice is pretty solid. Last season, despite their 3-5 CUSA record, the Owls ranked 6th in league scoring D and 5th in total D (4th run D). The unit brought back 89% of their tacklers, led by a strong LB unit (Alldredge and Chamberlin). Phil Steele calls it one of the LB groups best in CUSA. They have an up-and-comer at NT and a solid veteran at DT (Garcia), but it's not a DL that creates a lot of pressure of negative plays, more less they occupy the OL to allow the outstanding LBs to make plays. They had some decent DBs...but I am concerned that 3 of the returning starters have not played yet this season although 2 of the 3 remain on the roster. ?

Last year the Rice D held Marshall to their 3rd lowest offensive output through Herd's first 9 games. The only team to hold them under 400y, the others being Boise and Cincy. Marshall won that game 20-7. If Rice can get a similar performance out of their D, the offense should be in better position this year to compete.

Marshall's O is good, but haven't been forced to do much, haven't played any good teams other than App St back in September. I'm hopeful that Rice presents a challenge to them like few teams have this year.

Rice plays clean, smart football they have the fewest penalty yards and calls against them in the nation, which isn't a fluke, they ranked first last season with the fewest penalties and yards per game as well.

In the meaningless stat category, this is Rice's first regular season/non-bowl game played in December since they beat Marshall for the CUSA Title in 2013.

It's one of those games, I mean, you bet a 20+ point dog to win, you are kind of walking into a situation that you are going to be wrong quite a bit more often than you're right. But I'm going to do it, you don't win bets like this if you don't take chances on them. I'm going to say that Marshall isn't really as impressive as their 7-0 record implies. Their only two wins vs teams with winning records were 17-7 vs App and 20-9 vs FAU. I think Rice could surprise here.
Click to expand...
Great Write Up @s--k :shake:
 
Who you like best?

KState
Indiana
Rutgers
Oregon State
Northern Illinois
Eastern Michigan
Illinois

Longshots (haha like the ones above aren't)
Kansas
UL-Monroe

:popcorn:
 
EMU @ WMU: A little something I was working on....this query compares the results from the last 4 games ATS for each team and ATS & SU results (within a point range) from the previous 2 matchups between these two teams. I kinda like it as it gives me a feel for 1) how a team has been playing the past 4 games and 2) how each team has fared against each other the past 2 games played.

You'll see WMU has come back as 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS in today's situation vs. EMU.

Disclaimer* - I did the same thing two weeks ago with my KState pick at Iowa State which turned out to be horribly bad. But going back there was some extreme line movement in that game. No such line movement in today's game....aamof, WMU seems to be a pretty large public fav.

:popcorn:

wmu-emu.jpg
 
Who you like best?

KState - If you think Howard will have a strong and clean game it can happen
Indiana - depends on the confidence level in Tuttle
Rutgers - Penn St D might be a little too much for Knights, but not out of the question
Oregon State - QB theme again
Northern Illinois - NIU getting closer and closer and closer, Toledo isn't really that good, but clearly have the higher quality players, so long if they are hanging heads after last week, maybe, UT O should be too much for NIU
Eastern Michigan - kind of an interesting one, their O will give them a chance - their D though can be hard to count on this year
Illinois - not crazy, my fear with them would be turnovers

Longshots (haha like the ones above aren't)
Kansas - Texas Tech D is awful, as bad as Kansas...maybe? So with that in mind, might not be that long of a shot ,but still pretty long obviously
UL-Monroe - I thought about this one. I think right now ULM could maybe win a game vs a team close to as bad as they are. Ark St isn't eally bad team but are in a bad rut right now, still they have so much more skill and depth than ULM does. I mean, it would not surprise me, but at the same time it feels like the longest shot of all of these. I think you have to be betting on Ark St just not caring at all.


I am not personally MLing any of those I don't think, but I am playing most of them ATS with the exception of maybe Oregon State and NIU. So the Beavers and Huskies are your winner!

Really...I'm starting to think about Kansas myself. Then I get afraid of a 28 point 1st quarter and me thinking "why the hell did I bet Kansas?" Probably will still throw a 50 on them with the points because I'm sort of a masochist with big dogs.
 
@JROCK1966 E Mich I don't know...that query only has two DD lines and the dog is 1-1 straight up, but 2-0 ATS. Seems like a small sample when you compare games with a similar line.
 
s--k said:
I am not personally MLing any of those I don't think, but I am playing most of them ATS with the exception of maybe Oregon State and NIU. So the Beavers and Huskies are your winner!

Really...I'm starting to think about Kansas myself. Then I get afraid of a 28 point 1st quarter and me thinking "why the hell did I bet Kansas?" Probably will still throw a 50 on them with the points because I'm sort of a masochist with big dogs.
Click to expand...
:rofl:
 
I need to cram some info here before noon kicks. My list for the day I'm trying to sort out

@JROCK1966 what do you think of this list?

Rice
South Alabama
Navy
Stanford
Arizona (only if Gunnell is able to play)
South Carolina
 
s--k said:
I need to cram some info here before noon kicks. My list for the day I'm trying to sort out

@JROCK1966 what do you think of this list?

Rice
South Alabama
Navy
Stanford
Arizona (only if Gunnell is able to play)
South Carolina
Click to expand...
Zona & Stanford are on my list... just waiting on Gunnell news
 
How's this for some insanity.....my card for the day. All minimum 2-team RRs and up:

#1: (shoutout to @s--k)
Oregon State +327
Kansas U +1537
Northern Illinois +266
Risking $3.48 (4 parlays at $0.87) To Win $345.64

#2:
Rutgers +342
Kansas U +1537
Northern Illinois +266
Kansas State +246
Risking $5.50 (11 parlays at $0.50) To Win $958.39

#3:
Eastern Michigan +402
Oregon State +327
Illinois +418
Coastal Carolina +306
Risking $11.00 (11 parlays at $1.00) To Win $961.55

#4:
Rutgers +342
Eastern Michigan +402
Oregon State +327
Illinois +418
Coastal Carolina +306
Risking $8.00 (16 parlays at $0.50) To Win $2,563.45

#5:
Rutgers +342
Eastern Michigan +402
Oregon State +327
Northern Illinois +266
Kansas State +246
Illinois +418
Coastal Carolina +306
Risking $32.00 (64 parlays at $0.50) To Win $54,262.79

BOLTA!!

:watchingsports:
 
s--k said:
I need to cram some info here before noon kicks. My list for the day I'm trying to sort out

@JROCK1966 what do you think of this list?

Rice - very interesting....looked at it due to your post but already had in my mind Kansas as my big dog to back today
South Alabama - did not cap
Navy - considered Navy but I am just tired of backing them
Stanford - did not cap
Arizona (only if Gunnell is able to play) - did not cap
South Carolina - I think my Cats get it done
Click to expand...

So there you have it....Gamecocks, Owls, and Middies are YOUR winners!!

;)
 
Looking for Arizona news, came across a slew of DB opt outs that occured recently. Sumlin is disputing some of the opt outs as guys who are just injured. Depending on if the news on Young, Hausman, Barnes, Wolfe, Whitley and Crump is accurate, that leaves Zona with 6 scholarship DBs.
 
s--k said:
@JROCK1966 E Mich I don't know...that query only has two DD lines and the dog is 1-1 straight up, but 2-0 ATS. Seems like a small sample when you compare games with a similar line.
Click to expand...
Long time ago I was told, when looking for lines that are wrong, that lines don't matter.

Did that make any sense?

:pondering:
 
I've heard deficits don't matter, heard facts don't matter. Lines don't matter? When betting MLs I guess no they don't matter.
 
s--k said:
I've heard deficits don't matter, heard facts don't matter. Lines don't matter? When betting MLs I guess no they don't matter.
Click to expand...
With that said....specifically what I was trying to relate in that EMU/WMU query was it did not matter whether it was a dog or fav. The bottom line is the home team has played very poorly in this situation. That's what that query has said. Now whether or not WMU plays poorly today is left to be seen but it's worth a chance to find out IMHO.

Leggo!!

:cheerleader:
 
Kansas' last win was vs Texas Tech! While most times might look past KU, doubt TT will be doing so this week! On the other hand it also gives KU some confidence knowing they can beat them. TT led 17-0 and led by as many as 13 in the 2nd H though (KU was only 5 pt dog). Bowman DNP last year. In 2018 vs KU he threw for over 400 and nearly 80% completions! I don't know. Maybe KU can cover. But win?
 
s--k said:
ULM will have 21 total players to play defense today! Only 4 projecting starting players from the Phil Steele depth chart are listed on the weekly depth chart.

www.thenewsstar.com

ULM defense decimated by injuries. Here is availability report vs Arkansas State.

Depth razor thin for Warhawks heading into Saturday's 2 p.m. kickoff at Arkansas State
www.thenewsstar.com www.thenewsstar.com
Click to expand...
Damn you do your homework, don't you?

:bow:
 
Forgot what Iowa did to Peters last year - no call targeting knocked Peters out of the game. Iowa only won 19-10 as 15.5 pt favorites. I probably ML'd ILL, kinda sounds familiar now.
 
s--k said:
Forgot what Iowa did to Peters last year - no call targeting knocked Peters out of the game. Iowa only won 19-10 as 15.5 pt favorites. I probably ML'd ILL, kinda sounds familiar now.
Click to expand...
if you look at Iowa's scores since the MSU game, it seems they have been closer and closer....whereas the last two for Illini have been better and better....two teams heading in different directions perhaps? That's why I played them.
 
s--k said:
ULM will have 21 total players to play defense today! Only 4 projecting starting players from the Phil Steele depth chart are listed on the weekly depth chart.

www.thenewsstar.com

ULM defense decimated by injuries. Here is availability report vs Arkansas State.

Depth razor thin for Warhawks heading into Saturday's 2 p.m. kickoff at Arkansas State
www.thenewsstar.com www.thenewsstar.com
Click to expand...
What's Ky's defense look like for today?

:popcorn:
 
Yeah, teams are not updating their official depth charts often this year. I looked at KY's earlier this week and saw #1 still listed.
 
WtF why rice line jump 3 pts?
s--k said:
I'm taking a shot on Rice tomorrow.

Rice is averaging over 100 yards more per game on O in 3 games this year than their 2019 team (404 vs 294).

They did lead 10-0 in their last game at NTex, but lost 17-27. What I find really interesting about that game is that they accumulated 221 yards over the first 22 minutes of that game yet only had 10 points to show for it (fumble at the 28, SOD at the 11). Then, I can't explain what happened next, neither can their head coach. He says they just stopped doing what they had been doing. I don't know.

I see a competent passing game this year behind Mike Collins. He is actually #1 CUSA in yards per game and passer rating! Has a 10-1 ratio. Pretty good, albeit in just 3 games vs some let's say "soft" defenses (MTSU, SMiss, UNT). That being true, it's still a substantial upgrade to what the Owls got out of the position last year. A couple decent WRs and some solid TEs provide the targets. Trammel leads the way (#2 CUSA receiving yards per game). The OL has 84 career starts with carryover from last year, everyone starting this year started atleast a couple games last season. The unit is led by All-CUSA RG Shea Baker with his 27 career starts and Soph LT Servin who's started 11 straight (17 career). Still, OL is not a team strength for the Owls and leaves some vulnerability, was likely a better overall unit last season. You can probably guess the kind of ball Bloomgren wants to play being a former Stanford OC...Rice leads CUSA in TOP per game. It's not necessarily an overwhelming RB group.

Defense, Rice is pretty solid. Last season, despite their 3-5 CUSA record, the Owls ranked 6th in league scoring D and 5th in total D (4th run D). The unit brought back 89% of their tacklers, led by a strong LB unit (Alldredge and Chamberlin). Phil Steele calls it one of the LB groups best in CUSA. They have an up-and-comer at NT and a solid veteran at DT (Garcia), but it's not a DL that creates a lot of pressure of negative plays, more less they occupy the OL to allow the outstanding LBs to make plays. They had some decent DBs...but I am concerned that 3 of the returning starters have not played yet this season although 2 of the 3 remain on the roster. ?

Last year the Rice D held Marshall to their 3rd lowest offensive output through Herd's first 9 games. The only team to hold them under 400y, the others being Boise and Cincy. Marshall won that game 20-7. If Rice can get a similar performance out of their D, the offense should be in better position this year to compete.

Marshall's O is good, but haven't been forced to do much, haven't played any good teams other than App St back in September. I'm hopeful that Rice presents a challenge to them like few teams have this year.

Rice plays clean, smart football they have the fewest penalty yards and calls against them in the nation, which isn't a fluke, they ranked first last season with the fewest penalties and yards per game as well.

In the meaningless stat category, this is Rice's first regular season/non-bowl game played in December since they beat Marshall for the CUSA Title in 2013.

It's one of those games, I mean, you bet a 20+ point dog to win, you are kind of walking into a situation that you are going to be wrong quite a bit more often than you're right. But I'm going to do it, you don't win bets like this if you don't take chances on them. I'm going to say that Marshall isn't really as impressive as their 7-0 record implies. Their only two wins vs teams with winning records were 17-7 vs App and 20-9 vs FAU. I think Rice could surprise here.
Click to expand...
Any info why the Rice line just jumped 3pts??
 
I would guess if simply Marshall getting pounded this morning. Total dropping as well, glad I got in at u45, I just don’t see many points here. 31-10 maybe?
 
Matthew Bartlett (The Roost) just reported: "Rice Football quarterback Mike Collins did not make the trip to Marshall due to an injury (not COVID-related). Redshirt freshman JoVoni Johnson will start in his place."
Click to expand...
 
So iowa state in the big12 championship game regardless what happens today correct? Certainly makes wvu even more appealing but another game I like under more than side
 
Rice 10 to win 130 (kinda scared of it now...but backed it down and throwing 10 on it in case by some miracle their backup QB can still do it)

K St 50 to win 105
South Bama 50 to win 77
South carolina 50 to win 169
Illinois 50 to win 208
Navy 50 to win 175
 
s--k said:
Rice 10 to win 130 (kinda scared of it now...but backed it down and throwing 10 on it in case by some miracle their backup QB can still do it)

K St 50 to win 105
South Bama 50 to win 77
South carolina 50 to win 169
Illinois 50 to win 208
Navy 50 to win 175
Click to expand...

I like Illini. Gl today
 
Rice was nice and all...but lost next 5! Kinda ruins everything. Worst yet none of those 5 even covered ATS.
 
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