Week 14 ML Dogs
- Thread starter ProV1Colt
- Start date
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
Kansas State (do any of the Horns ever care about the rest of the season? They just lost their chance at the league title and two of their best players promptly opted out for the season)
Liberty
Georgia Tech
TCU (Best O-lineman for Ok State opted out after they lost their chance at the league title and the O-line was already the weakest part of the team)
Navy
Auburn
Liberty
Georgia Tech
TCU (Best O-lineman for Ok State opted out after they lost their chance at the league title and the O-line was already the weakest part of the team)
Navy
Auburn
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
K State
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I agree. There looks to be A LOT of good candidates. The hardest part will be isolating the best ones to wager on. Just considering the larger ones:
Rutgers - kids go all out every game, beating Purdue and getting that taste of success no doubt is crucial in sustaining their continued fight. Obviously Penn State is very vulnerable. Could be a tough matchup for the Rutgers O though and PSU has edge at QB.
Rice - I have actually wanted to ML against Marshall often this season, thankfully I have yet to do so. Marshall's body of work, call me unimpressed. Rice hasn't played many games to fully get a handle on what they are, and lost 2 of their 3 games...so they are big dog for a reason here.
NIU - Toledo remains a shell of their former selves...hard to expect them to lose back-to-back games, but with the way they are playing, can't put it past them. Not that I like taking a team with 11 freshman in their starting lineup to win...but they are improving by the week.
Auburn- If - IF - Texas A&M offense that played last week shows up they will lose this game. But they can't be that bad again can they? Auburn has won 3 straight in the series. Revenge you say...yeah well people though Texas A&M was going to crush LSU to repay them for the 2019 blowout, easier said than done.
Kansas State - Texas season is in the shitter. I know Ehlinger will care about playing hard, but will anyone else? Kansas State - yeah they care. A prideful performance out of that bunch last week following the shutout in Ames.
Liberty - Has the offense and the coach to hang in here like few other teams Coastal has played. Tough game with two typical "play on" teams. Makes points seem valuable for sure and why can't Liberty win? Coastal hosting Gameday and has Sun Belt Title game on deck, not that I'm saying they will look ahead, but a lot on their plate.
Eastern Michigan - Might WM be getting a little complacent with the West all but wrapped up? I don't know WM remains a very potent team on O and I'll call last week and off game. EM O proving to be capable...but it's the D you have to worry about and this team is accustom to routine tough losses, but last week might be hard to get over. Last 3 in the series decided by 13 points total with EM winning one of the 3.
South Alabama - Why not again? Backup QB settled in and made some really critical and nice throws coming off the bench (he's actually 3rd string). Trooy has lost 3 straight now including 2 as favorites.
ULM - Not really, but if I get news that Ark St WR Jonathan Adams opts out, maybe just throw a dollar or two on this monster number. $5 wins you $35. Ark St is still better and I have no reason to believe that Adams isn't playing, he's just their only real standout player. More likely Ark St rolls by like 30...but just saying Ark St is spiraling. Nobody quite spirals like ULM, what I am I doing wasting time on this.
Boston College - like this one and might like it a lot. Probably more me not really being into this Virginia team. I guess they are good? Seems like decent return odds for a game that should be back-and-forth and could cut either way.
Maryland - Locksley vs Gattis ll. Probably hard to put real money on this game with so many unknowns. But I wouldn't put it past Michigan to lose to anyone.
West Virginia - ISU off emotional win vs a WVU bunch that plays some good defense. Not quite sure I trust the WVU O as much though.
Indiana - I personally am willing to bet on IU playing one of their best games of the season here, everyone around Tuttle. Now, what Tuttle does will determine the outcome of the game so it's hard to have a ton of confidence not knowing exactly what he will look like in his first start and full game action. UW D will be tough, very tough no doubt.
Navy - Pretty impressed with how Navy D held down a potent Memphis O last week (held Tigers to almost 200y below their ssn avg). So do we just assume Tulsa will be down by 14 or more this week? If so they ain't coming back this time!
Georgia Tech - Is NC State running out of gas? Miami, FSU, Liberty kind of close physical emotional games then....got taken to the wire by Syracuse? GT did benefit from several Duke turnovers, but after such a long layoff, they showed pretty well (523yards of O, best of the season and 150 more yards than Duke)
Stanford - Not like everything is alright with Stanford, it's not quite right, but Washington has had some closer than expected games vs Ore St and Utah. Feel like Stanford might be able to do some similar things that Utah did, expect hopefully not blow the lead. Washington just not real impressive offensively (save the Zona game). Having just played Cal's D helps Stanford as I compare Cal similarly to UW. Actually winning a game, the big game, should give Tree a boost to keep them interested unless that game was all they cared about.
Hawaii - I'm not going to personally ML Hawaii vs San Jose, but this could be a wild game.
Cal - rough spot for Bears off the blk'd xpt loss. I think Oregon will bounce back, but they are off this year...that D, what is up with Ducks D?
Colorado State - Hard to know what you are going to get on O with CSU. Their presumed strength on D being their DL and LBs should have a chance vs what San Diego State likes to do. Aztecs pushed around the Hawaii D, I don't see that happening here....SD St didn't do that vs Nevada either. So last week SD St posted under 200y of O. Vs Nevada they posed under 300y of O. That brings their last 4 game average to just 291 yards. Yeah, sounds about right for San Diego State football.
Virginia Tech - Did I just say that out loud?
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2daBank
Voice of Reason
Lots to read thru sk! Rice has really struggled getting points out of good drives, that what beat them vs north texas, they had ball in scoring range the entire 1st half and only had 10 points to show for it. I think their defense is pretty good and should keep them in the game but can they freaking score? If you like them think you gotta take serious look at the under.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I do hesitate when going against a team that should be pretty good off a poor game. UW should be pretty good and last week qualifies as poor.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
There's some interesting shit going on in Lexington......
kentuckysportsradio.com
kentuckysportsradio.com
Stoops says Kelvin Joseph wanted to sit out USC game, pushed him to opt out: "I can't just have him out there standing around"
Kentucky cornerback Kelvin Joseph announced this evening he would be opting out of the remainder of the 2020 college football season and entering the NFL Draft, a decision head coach Mark Stoops urged him to make. During Stoops’ call-in show Monday evening, the Kentucky head coach said Joseph...
Stoops says the Kentucky football program is down 26-27 people
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
JJ Weaver is out for the season to...he had his first career start at LB @ FL last week but tore his ACL.There's some interesting shit going on in Lexington......
Stoops says Kelvin Joseph wanted to sit out USC game, pushed him to opt out: "I can't just have him out there standing around"
Kentucky cornerback Kelvin Joseph announced this evening he would be opting out of the remainder of the 2020 college football season and entering the NFL Draft, a decision head coach Mark Stoops urged him to make. During Stoops’ call-in show Monday evening, the Kentucky head coach said Joseph...
Stoops says the Kentucky football program is down 26-27 people
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
When VK was active, he would post about "bad favorites". A bad favorite is always ripe for an upset.
UK a bad favorite? UK has been upset twice this year as a favorite, vs Ole Miss and at Missouri. One of their other favorite roles, vs Vandy they did lead throughout but only won by 3. In fact, when favored this year...UK is only 1-3 ATS with the lone cover coming vs Miss St 24-2...in a game in which I think UK scored more defensive TDs than offensive TDs.
So question is, if UK is a bad favorite, worthy of fading in this spot....is South Carolina worth backing? They have failed to cover their last 5, all as dogs.
UK a bad favorite? UK has been upset twice this year as a favorite, vs Ole Miss and at Missouri. One of their other favorite roles, vs Vandy they did lead throughout but only won by 3. In fact, when favored this year...UK is only 1-3 ATS with the lone cover coming vs Miss St 24-2...in a game in which I think UK scored more defensive TDs than offensive TDs.
So question is, if UK is a bad favorite, worthy of fading in this spot....is South Carolina worth backing? They have failed to cover their last 5, all as dogs.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Looking back a bit...
29 teams have registered two or more upsets this season. Only two teams, Arkansas and Coastal Carolina have 3 upset victories. Some teams have pulled two upsets in a limited number of games; those teams being Colorado 2 straight up wins out of 2 dog roles, Illinois 2 upsets out of 5 games all as dogs, Indiana 2 upsets in 3 dog roles, Maryland 2 upsets out of 4 games (and they were doozies!+603 and +1143), Liberty has been dogged 3x this year and won 2 outright, Oregon State had pulled 2 upsets out of 3 chances, San Jose won both games they were dogged in.
Kansas State owns the largest upset of the year at +1400. Maryland has the second largest upset with +1143, and the 4th biggest +603. Otherwise Michigan St has a +991, Tulsa won as +601 at UCF and Miss State beat LSU as +581. Liberty was +464 when they beat VT. Several 14 point dogs have won, and on down the line.
29 teams have registered two or more upsets this season. Only two teams, Arkansas and Coastal Carolina have 3 upset victories. Some teams have pulled two upsets in a limited number of games; those teams being Colorado 2 straight up wins out of 2 dog roles, Illinois 2 upsets out of 5 games all as dogs, Indiana 2 upsets in 3 dog roles, Maryland 2 upsets out of 4 games (and they were doozies!+603 and +1143), Liberty has been dogged 3x this year and won 2 outright, Oregon State had pulled 2 upsets out of 3 chances, San Jose won both games they were dogged in.
Kansas State owns the largest upset of the year at +1400. Maryland has the second largest upset with +1143, and the 4th biggest +603. Otherwise Michigan St has a +991, Tulsa won as +601 at UCF and Miss State beat LSU as +581. Liberty was +464 when they beat VT. Several 14 point dogs have won, and on down the line.
Coolslaw1
Pretty much a regular
Liberty QB out. One of my HS best friends son is on Liberty and he says they screwed bc backup QB blows. My site got the line up to 8.5 and then went off the board. Not feeling as good on the upset. Now they saying they might play BYU instead. Not sure now I feel about that.Awesome!
Make a CTG ML Dog sign!
Ok guys , help me think of a good tasteful sign that I can make that will get us on TV. You can pm me and send suggestions as well. Not sure what kind of atmosphere GD will be and or how much they will have fans there. They haven't had or allowed fans at other GD this yr, have they? I know Brooks Stadium is saying people can only be in groups of 4. I hate this BS scamdemic. More people have been shot and died of alcohol poisoning then the china plague at CCU this yr.
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
CtgMeatUp2021 That's your sign.
Coolslaw1
Pretty much a regular
ok......Looks like I'll have to make a couple signs then.:megaphone:
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
Wouldn't surprise me a bit if my Cats lost this game....lots of players and coaches out as I posted above....one of the bright spots (JJ Weaver) on defense is now done for the season.....but really, here is what concerns me. Kelvin Joseph has opted out. Why is it concerning when a player at Ky opts out as opposed to a player elsewhere? Well, I'll tell ya....the last several years Ky has made a big deal on "being a family" and "we're all brothers" etc. etc. etc. Example: 2 years ago, when Ky played Penn State in Orlando, both Allen and Snell said no way they were not playing....they were going to stick with supporting and being with their brothers rather than not play and concentrate on staying healthy for the draft. There are more examples but bottom line is the past 3-4 years a culture of "being there" for one another was ingrained into this team's psychy (sp?)
Fast forward to this week....Kelvin Joseph did not want to play in this game and Stoops forced him to opt-out....Stoops specifically said "I can't have him out there standing around doing nothing."
It's a crack in the armor in my opinion....it goes against the culture that has defined this team in recent years and it tells me that they might not be "all-in" so-to-speak.
Meanwhile, I forget who it was on USCjr but I saw a video of a defensive lineman for the Gamecocks saying no way he will let his brothers down and opt-out or not play. His parents taught him to finish what he started and that is what he is going to do.
After reading this, which team does it sound like has the best leaders in this matchup?
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I think Sadarius Hutchinson is the SCar player who said opt out was not an option for him.
It's a problem for sure and it's going to be a problem going forward. Really sucks that not only are their players opting out for bowl games, now just at any point in the season it has become acceptable to just quit. Opting out at this point of a season is quitting. It's not because of health and safety after being with the program for 3 months and playing games and all that. It is selfish. Comes down to the character and commitment and pride of the individual. All these college coaches treat their teams like families, it's how they build culture and unity. You can't have opt out players around. They have to leave, you are either in or you are out. There is no room for quitters around.
South Carolina has their share of quitters though...so it's hard to say that one group has more leadership than the other. Sadarius Hutchinson is a good story, but not like that has transferred to on the field success.
It's a problem for sure and it's going to be a problem going forward. Really sucks that not only are their players opting out for bowl games, now just at any point in the season it has become acceptable to just quit. Opting out at this point of a season is quitting. It's not because of health and safety after being with the program for 3 months and playing games and all that. It is selfish. Comes down to the character and commitment and pride of the individual. All these college coaches treat their teams like families, it's how they build culture and unity. You can't have opt out players around. They have to leave, you are either in or you are out. There is no room for quitters around.
South Carolina has their share of quitters though...so it's hard to say that one group has more leadership than the other. Sadarius Hutchinson is a good story, but not like that has transferred to on the field success.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
auburn is starting to grow on me. I understand wanting to fade Texas but have you seen k-st lately? Since they lost their qb that offense has been a total shit show! I know Texas has kids bailing but gotta think elhinger gonna give it all he got to end his career. I never play Texas as favs but I think it just to easy for ppl to line up and fade them without realizing just how bad k-st is!! Hope I’m wrong and you take the cash, it a easy pass for me.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Fat Joseph is such a waste
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
He had an INT or two this season and that's about it....got burned more often than not.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Biggest concern for auburn. They allowing opponents to convert freaking 53.7% of their 3rd downs!! 122nd in the nation, god damn that is bad!!! They convert 50% themselves which is great but aggies convert 53% and play much better 3rd down d than auburn. That concerning. Strangely enough auburn red zone d has been excellent/top 25 in nation. On the other hand aggies red zone d been dreadful. That gives me hope auburn can stay within a score, if they can just get off the field enough to have some possession!
opcorn:
bones
We Must Protect Our Democracy
Such old notions. We have progressed beyond such nonsense
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
ok i'm gonna be the first to put lsu out there as the best long shot play (+1481). For it to happen you have to believe 2 things. 1) LSU defense has turned the corner and is playing much much better and 2) LSU is going to get points because their offensive demise is overstated and the defense for alabama is overstated with inflated numbers due to poor competition after ole miss
Since ole miss alabama has played who with as dangerous a passing attack as lsu ? ......yes the lsu run game is in the shitter but they have had many explosive games this year passing the ball.
illinois - This team is a different team with peters back there. They showed their true value vs nebraska. Iowa is a bad double digit favorite.
coastal - contrarian side since everyone seems to be on byu..... byu has played one of worst schedules in football this year and lone good win houston has been relatively poor this year in the american not able to stay on the field with ucf and cincy. BYU had major issues defending the run last year. This was a team that struggled against teams like south florida and toledo who could run the ball in 2019. Who have they played to dispell that - and coastal can run the ball.
eastern - every week a favorite in the mac decides to take a dump and not play well. Eastern is a great dog and should have 1 or 2 ml wins this year with better breaks
cal, georgia tech, boston college - all those games feel like tossup games and favorites i wouldn't trust.
Since ole miss alabama has played who with as dangerous a passing attack as lsu ? ......yes the lsu run game is in the shitter but they have had many explosive games this year passing the ball.
illinois - This team is a different team with peters back there. They showed their true value vs nebraska. Iowa is a bad double digit favorite.
coastal - contrarian side since everyone seems to be on byu..... byu has played one of worst schedules in football this year and lone good win houston has been relatively poor this year in the american not able to stay on the field with ucf and cincy. BYU had major issues defending the run last year. This was a team that struggled against teams like south florida and toledo who could run the ball in 2019. Who have they played to dispell that - and coastal can run the ball.
eastern - every week a favorite in the mac decides to take a dump and not play well. Eastern is a great dog and should have 1 or 2 ml wins this year with better breaks
cal, georgia tech, boston college - all those games feel like tossup games and favorites i wouldn't trust.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
BYU schedule strength better than coastal. Coastal runs the ball by bullying weak sun belt defenses. Let’s see them bully a bigger more physical team:
i haven't looked up the sos numbers. Both teams schedules look like crap lol lets say that. ....i agree that's the matchup. They ran it on app state but I'm one of those people that is surprised marshall beat app state first game of year so app state I think is very down to last year.
One common opponent is Texas State. BYU won 52-14. Coastal won 49-14. Troy just lost to app state about same way they lost to byu.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Nobody should forget that BYU-Houston game was close...even with typical boneheaded Holgerson/UH penalties, mistakes and turnovers. Then in the 4th Q BYU scored late to go up by DD and it got out of hand when UH went for a 4th down deep in their own territory and BYU tacked on one. Houston should've covered that game.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
lol. Fair enough on schedules. I think app state has a really good secondary but they not as strong up front imo. Plus they have had so much coaching turnover last several years think it just caught up with them a little this season. Wasnt a great matchup for them. I just think BYU a terrible matchup for coastal and the steamroller tour continues as they continue seeking love the committee not giving them. I certainly could be wrong but I think this a big byu win. I actually liked liberty before they got the Rona too, so maybe I’m to low on coastal? Guess I shouldn’t be, they been spread covering machines!
I thought they be able to run more successfully on liberty but I liked liberty ability to score on them. Thought that game was gonna be back and forth so naturally liked the +7!! I just don’t think this one gonna be close like that, byu big and physical on both lines of scrimmage so don’t see coastal pushing them around in the run game, and I expect wilson to be well protected vs what I think a undersized but aggressive coastal d.
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2daBank
Voice of Reason
Regardless what happens and I know byu schedule nothing to brag about ya gotta give them credit for the willingness to pick up and play anyone anywhere this year. Not as if the schedule was their fault, they have did whatever they could to play games. They saved espn asses, woulda been lame having game day somewhere without a big game or a game at all!! Good for byu I say! They should get more credit than committee willing to give them!
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I would think that ESPN was instrumental in making it happen actually. Game is on their network, they are already onsite, they host the playoff show. That's the thing with ESPN, everything they do that looks like it is for the sport, it's actually for them. Like all the bowls they own. Who cares if the stadiums were 95% empty (precovid), doesn't matter as long as they can put it on TV. Anyway, bet ESPN was as involved with getting this game on as anybody else. Not that it is bad, just kind of self-fullfilling.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Oh im sure they were scrambling and I’m sure it was self interest that fueled it. BYU still had to be willing, how many power 5s would take that on?
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Wasn't there a story that Washington offered to play BYU 2 weeks ago and BYU declined?
I give BYU credit. It is hard doing what they do midweek make a gameplan, arrange travel across country to play a road game vs a good team. That deserves credit for sure.
At the same time, if Liberty and Coastal were set to be say...CBS Sportsnetwork, I'm not so sure it happens.
I give BYU credit. It is hard doing what they do midweek make a gameplan, arrange travel across country to play a road game vs a good team. That deserves credit for sure.
At the same time, if Liberty and Coastal were set to be say...CBS Sportsnetwork, I'm not so sure it happens.
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
I think I've come full circle on this....another result that may occur (and the one which I think will happen) is sometimes after getting rid of a cancer (maybe too strong a term as I really don't know Kelvin Joseph) teams play much better. The distraction is gone....players who have bought in get to play and the overall team performance sometimes improves. I was watching Stoops presser yesterday and he sounded determined and confident...not the "aloof" that occurs whenever they end up losing as a fav.
Cats will run the ball well enough to get the win methinks....esp. if CRod is back!
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Joseph is a cancer. Make no mistake
