Week 14: Leans & Plays

Aztec4Life

Aztec4Life

Montezuma Mesa Survivor
Locked in so far...


Week 14 Card

Houston -4.5 [1.5 Units] :D

Wake Forest +3 [1 Unit] :D

ULL -3 [1 Unit] :mad:

Oregon State +9 [0.8 Units] :D

Florida -3 [0.7 Units] :D

Rutgers M/L +320 [0.5 Units] :mad:


Week 14 Leans

Rutgers +11

Oklahoma -3.5


GL this week fellas! :cheers:



YTD NCAAF Sides: 80-55-3 [+19.7 Units]

YTD NCAAF M/L Plays: 5-11 [-1.1 Units]

YTD NCAAF Totals: 2-0-1 [+2.4 Units]

YTD NCCAF Teasers/Parlays: 0-3 [-1.8 Units]

YTD NCAAF Overall: +19.2 Units



:7_2_111:
 
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Aztec that NMST line fell big time..

Holbrook is D2D with a concussion... Line is -8 at most places now..

I am still leaning that way if it makes you any happier..

We have much of the same leans though..

You and Troystacks are gonna make me check this ULL game out..

GL..
 
everything - Thanks for the info bro. Really do appreciate it. I'll hold off until they have a more definitive status on Holbrook. I would probably still lean to NM State -8 with him in question. :cheers:


Troy - Thanks bro. I noticed you were on the Rajun Cajuns too.

The difference in this game will be the ground attack. I agree 100%...ULL can both run the ball more effectively, and stop the running game more effectively.

I'll take the side with the better rushing attack and better rushing defense.

GL this week bro. :shake:
 
Aztec4Life said:
Troy - Thanks bro. I noticed you were on the Rajun Cajuns too.

The difference in this game will be the ground attack. I agree 100%...ULL can both run the ball more effectively, and stop the running game more effectively.

I'll take the side with the better rushing attack and better rushing defense.

GL this week bro. :shake:
Click to expand...

I just looked at this one and I am going to back off, GL on ULL but here is what I found..

Sure over the course of the yr, ULL has the better rushing attack and better rushing defense but not lately..Just by looking at it without breaking it down, ULM has been more impressive as of late. ULM beat North Texas 23-3, Loss @ Kentucky 42-40, Won @ FLINT 35-0.... ULL on the other hand has a win vs. Arky St 28-13, Won @ FLINT 17-7, and lost to North Texas 16-7. Right there is two common opponents who ULM has been more impressive against.

Over the last 3 games, ULM avgs 243 rushing yards to ULL 191. ULM has only allowed avg of 60yds rushing over the last 3 while ULL has given up 135yds.

ULL might have the better record but I am not sure they are playing better right now. ULL won last yrs game 54-21 as well so I am sure ULM will be ready to play..

Again not trying to talk you out of this, both you and Stacks got ULL and I respect you guys as cappers. GL
 
everything - I appreciate the feedback and insight bro. Having said that, I'm sticking to my guns with confidence, for a few reasons...

1. ULL has had one poor rushing performance in their last 5 games, which was against N. Texas (rushed for 40 yards). In their other 4 games, the Rajin Cajuns rushed for 265, 270, 170, 154. Not too shabby if you ask me. Of course we can't throw out the N. Texas game altogether...but that was definitely a down game for ULL, as they lost to an inferior team IMO. The best team does not always win.

2. Of their 3 wins on the season, only 1 has come on the road for ULM, against the WORST team in the Sunbelt (WINLESS Fla. International). This win also came only a few weeks after Miami's brawl with Fla. International. So, ULM was going up against a team in a shattered emotional state, minus most of Fla. Int'ls starters. If there was one road game they should have won this year, that was it.

3. Looking at that N. Texas matchup, ULL pretty much gave the Mean Green 9 points via special teams miscues/blunders. It was a very poorly played game by ULL, who probably thought they could handle the Mean Green with ease.

4. Both N. Texas and Fla. International are two of the worst offenses in college football, which is part of the reason ULM has had so much success moving the ball the past few weeks. ULL (6-5) is a competitive team...I would be surprised if the Rajin Cajuns let ULM come into their house and walk all over them.

5. ULM is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games on the road.
ULL is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games at home.


And lastly, ULL has a chance at a pretty good season if they come out of this one with a win. ULM is a pretty big rival for them, so I don't see them coming out flat.

Here's the difference between these two...

ULL has been winning the close games, while ULM has not.

Just my $0.02 of course. GL this week bro. :shake:
 
Good points bro as long as you feel good about it, thats all that matters..

I just tried to provide a different point of view..

GL this week..:cheers:
 
Of course bro. That's why this site exists...to discuss the spreads and pick winners. I always appreciate another capper's insight. You provide good points and valid reasoning...which I always appreciate.

GL this week! :cheers:
 
Adding

Houston -4.5 [0.6 Units]

&

Houston -4.5 [0.9 Units] --> a little more juice on this one



:drink:
 
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Adding

Oregon State +9 [0.8 Units]


I hate going against HawaiiGuy, but I think OSU is a pretty good team. I'll take my chances getting 9.
 
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