Week 14 HAMMERS!!!!!

HammersSpreads

Pretty much a regular
Season Record: 53-46 (53.53%)
Sides Record: 51-42 (54.8%)
Totals Record: 7-9 (43.75%)
ML Parlay: 2-3

MASTER Record: 15-3 (83.3%)

HAMMERED Record: 0-2 (0.00%)

Last week: 5-4, 0-1 parlays, 2-0 MASTER

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ML Parlay: CMU, Wiscy, N Texas, Utah St (+118)
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N Texas killed it...first home loss for them in a while, with the C-USA on the line...heartbreaker.

Houston -2.5
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I will one day quit betting against Cincy

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[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]OU ML +188
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Like I've said before, I rarely bet on OU's games, but this one I was very confident in. 2-0 on OU this year.

Nebraska ML (+105)
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Cornhuskers are a heart attack of a team to bet

Wiscy -17
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I bet this game thinking it was a miserable match up for Minny...& it was. I didn't really think Minny would get an offensive TD, & they didn't. I saw Wiscy getting high 20's-low 30's, which they very well could have gotten to 26-28 points in the game. I think Wiscy was clearly the right side here, it just didn't hit. However, I was impressed w/ Minny's defense being able to limit Wiscy's run some.

LSU -3.5
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Too easy. I pegged this game perfectly. The over looked like an easy bet, but I loved LSU side instead, thinking they could limit the A&M offense. Real easy cash

SMU -5 ----- MASTER
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I can't say I pegged this game perfectly b/c Gilbert got injured, but I predicted it to be around 27-10. SMU defense played even better than I thought they would, but I did think they would keep a terrible USF offense in check. & I thought Gilbert would be able to get his....USF defense was good statistically, but they hadn't faced teams that pass the ball a lot, & while they were ranked high in pass defense nationally, they also had the 3rd least amount of pass attempts against & were middle to botom in the nation in yards/catch. I was honestly ready to burn my ticket once Gilbert got hurt on a fluke QB slide that ended looking like a nasty knee injury, but the defense did more than hold their own for the W.
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[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ULM ML (+145)
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Bad bet all around. I thought ULM coming off a bye, needing 1 win to get bowl eligible would come out motivated & win...but they got OWNED

Ole Miss ML (+102)
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I continue to bet against Mizzou & don't know why. I think Ole Miss had a fighters chance, but Red Zone woes killed this bet.

Okla St +8 ----- MASTER
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I really wish I had time to do write ups last week....as I nailed this bet right on. I actually MASTERed the +8 & threw another unit on the ML (+250). I can't say I saw the complete domination in this game, but I did see a comfortable 10 pt Cowboy win. Basically I thought Baylor would come out nervous & Bryce Petty would be off early. Baylor's only other big stage game was against OU, & Petty was off early in that game...but then settled in towards the end of the 1st half. So I figured Glenn Spencer would use a lot of what Mike Stoops did & get physical w/ Baylor & blitz, which he did. But I also thought that OSU could capitalize on their defense playing so good (which OU's offense wasn't able to do), which would in turn leave Petty nervous throughout the game. OU didn't run the ball & get physical downhill w/ Baylor, instead they tried to run stretch plays which you can't do against a fast Baylor defense. OSU installed some 2 TE sets, got the FB some carries, & got physical, which led to great success. There's no secret on how to beat spread teams....Stanford has shown us how to do that the last 2 years. This loss will be good for Baylor in the long run, as they are new to this big stage...& losses like this only help a team grow, & it will certainly help Bryce Petty mature.
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One more quick hit on my SDSU
Aztecs. I'm very pumped for them winning against Boise again this weekend, and I actually had a bet on them but I wasn't able to get on here to give it out. Aztecs are one of 4/5 teams I follow very closely, but being a fan and following a team doesn't always means it's profitable betting. However, I've got them pinned I feel. I've been saying all year they are a team that plays up or down to their competition. They will play within a TD of an 0-10 team just as easily as they will play within a TD of a 10-0 team. They also are a heart attack bc they have probably the worst FG kicking in the nation. Nonetheless, Rocky Long is doing a great job, and they have a chance to be really good next year.

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At first glance at the card I really liked a lot of games. But after doing research I'm not feeling as strongly about most that I would like. I still have a lot of looking to do, so maybe that will change. Right now there are 2 that I really like though.


Bama (-10) & (-11)
I already got down on this game at both numbers....& might hit it for more later to bring it up to a MASTER. This is honestly probably my 2nd most confident bet of the year (the most confident was Bama vs A&M @ (-8) & we know how that worked out). Jimmy & gp have already given analysis that are in que with mine. Basically, this is a terrible match up for Auburn. A 1 dimensional team is going to have a hard time hanging w/ Bama. Maybe Marshall can throw the ball, but I haven't seen enough to say he can w/ confidence. Auburn runs, & Bama stops the run. If there is a "weakness" in Bama's D then it is their corners, & I dont think Marshall can expose them constantly. The weakness sure as hell isnt the front 7 & safeties, which doesn't bode well for a run heavy offense. Bama should be able to move the ball fairly easily as well IMO. I do put stock in home field in certain situations (like last week OSUvsBaylor), but I don't this game.....Bama is experienced & have played in much bigger games than this game, so I dont see HFA coming into much play.....the only way I can see it is at maybe the 1st drive, & at the end of the game if Auburn is still actually in the game (which I don't expect them to be). I don't care about Auburn having 2 weeks to prepare, b/c Bama has had at least the same amount to prepare. Saban with time to prepare is dangerous, & you can look at the track record of how much better they play against good teams, with a lot on the line, and time to prepare. I also think it does nobody any good comparing Auburn to A&M, b/c the offenses are completely different, & that game was 10 weeks ago.

K-State (-16.5)
I really don't care where this line ends up. I don't think Vegas could put this line high enough. & I HATE playing higher lines. I usually stay off lines over 2 TD's....but this is an exception. Snyder loves KILLING the JayHawks, and he has a filthy track record of doing that. Add to the fact that K-State is playing really good football right now, & Kansas is awful everywhere (especially offensively). Kansas got their 1st Big 12 win in a century & I think they are all happy about it & probably cashed in. I'm sure they have some feeling of this rivalry, but they are outmatched, outcoached, outeverything.



ECU (+3) & ML
I need to look at this a lot more. This game should be a real good one. Basically, I didn't ever buy into the Marshall Kool-Aid. I like ECU a lot & think they are the better team & I love McNeil. Just gotta look a little more into this one.

Bowling Green (-2)
I love some MACtion & have followed both teams very closely. Again I just think Bowling Green is the better team, & I can actually see a DD win here. Bowling Green did burn me against Toledo....but when all the marbles are on the line, I like them to beat the Buffs (although I have backed Mack & Oliver all year).

Wazzou (+14.5)
I love myself some Mike Leach. Being an OU fan I guess I have to. He is doing great things in Pulmon, & Wazzou is on the up & up. I still need to do more looking into this one, but this is one of my more favorite plays of the week as well. It's a lot of points in a big rivalry game, with 2 teams that I honestly don't feel are all that far off.

Florida (+27)
Florida = 1 of the 4/5 teams I follow every closely. I love Muschamp, & this season has been a disaster. I can't remember a team that has had this many injuries, & more piled up last week in midst of the embarrassment. That'll lead me to my 1st concern w/ this game & that is they lost 2 more MLB's last week who wont play against FSU (they only have 3 MLB's left I believe, & they start 2 of them in their scheme). The biggest loss on the defense & probably the whole team was D Easley, & since then teams have been able to run on Florida....so the concern is NT & MLB on their defense. However....Florida still has great pass rushers & CB Roberson will be back this week so their secondary is completely healthy. Gators offense is a joke, w/ really the only player worth much of a damn is Kelvin Taylor (who I think will be a stud). Bottom line: This is a massive rivalry game that, even w/ the terrible season I would hope Gator fans still pack the Swamp. I said before the year that Florida was one of the most talented teams in the nation, & now w/ all their injuries that's obviously not true. However, they still have a lot of talent on defense. If they can slow the run, then I think they can make Winston look human. Also, this is the Gators Seniors bowl game....against a team they HATE. You have to have big balls to bet the Gators this year, but with this being such a big rivalry, at The Swamp, & w/ the Gators Seniors playing their last game I think they should be able to keep it within this outrageously large number.

Rutgers (-3)
LOVED this game when I saw it. Rutgers needs 1 more game to get bowl eligible, which is a great angle. But Coach Flood is benching Nova & bringing in a QB who hasn't played since 2011....I don't know how much I like that, even though Nova has been real bad. Regardless, I feel like this should be a good spot to get back on track & get to a bowl game, & I think Paul James should be able to run wild back to his form from earlier this year. & don't let UCONN's victory last week fool you, they were still outgained by 125 yds & weren't good.

Wyoming (+21)
Gotta have big balls to bet Wyoming anymore. Defense is an embarrassment. Wyoming bowl eligible w/ a win, Utah St goes to the MW title game w/ a win. I need to look more into this game as well, but I gotta believe Wyoming can keep this within the big number as well, & right now wouldn't be surprised if they keep it close. Dave Christensen is 17-5 ATS as a road dog (3-1 or 4-1 ATS each year, & is 3-1 this year), so he's a good coach to back in this spot.


Not so sure yet:
Baylor (-12)
SDSU (-3.5)


This week looks like a really good week for ML parlays also, so I expect to have a few of those in there as well. I'm counting a bakers dozen that I like to put in there.
 
Really knocking myself for not taking Texas. Knew that was a terrible match up for an overrated/overvalued Tech team. Oh well, next week is still a great time to fade Texas.






Bowling Green (-2.5)

ECU (+3.5) & dabble on the ML (+150)


Still trying to figure out a ML parlay right now for tomorrow as well
 
damn...that Master record is "masterful." best of luck and thanks for your thread
 
Like ECU a lot. As far as Florida, I tend to agree from the rivalry standpoint and 27 points is a lot with this rivalry, however, Florida doesn't match well with FSU and for that reason, I'M OUT.

LOL, always wanted to use that "Shark Tank" phrase. GL today! I will be rooting for Gators regardless. And wouldn't that be the shit if Gators pull out a win by some miracle? WOW
 
ML Parlay:
Toledo, CMU, Ohio, Fresno


Half unit on this. I have a eerie feeling about Fresno, so only a half unit so I can say "Go Sparta"
 
Lol yes Shark let's go pirates today!! With how Cooper has been running recently, I think that may decide the game today.

As for Florida, I haven't bet them yet....but I may have to have a couple drinks before I hit submit on the bet.....so we will see if I pull the trigger lol.
 
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ML Parlay:[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Toledo, CMU, Ohio, Fresno [/FONT]
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[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Bowling Green (-2.5)[/FONT]
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[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]ECU (+3.5) ----- Getting b*tch slapped all over the field


Fighting Mike Leaches +17 (-120)
Like this play A LOT. Almost MASTERed it. 2 units on it nonetheless.
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Friday:
ML Parlay ----- Toledo, CMU, Ohio, Fresno
Bowling Green (-2.5)
ECU (+3.5)

Fighting Mike Leaches (+17) x2

SJSU (+11) 8-1 on SJSU games this year, including current 7-0 run. Glad they got the win so hopefully I will have 1 more game to bet on them

Saturday:

Bama (-10) ----- HAMMERED

K-State (-18) I hate big spreads, but I might come back and MASTER this one in the morning still

Rutgers (-2.5) smaller


Leans:
Florida (+28)
Wyoming (+24)
ND (+15)
Southern Miss (+14.5) & ML (feeling crazy)
SDSU (-3.5) - wasn't going to bet this, but with Fresno losing, I think we will see a bit effort from the Aztecs since they can get a share of the MW West title (still won't go to the conference title game)


I'll be back in the morning for adds and 2 ML parlays
 
Friday:
ML Parlay ----- Toledo, CMU, Ohio, Fresno
Bowling Green (-2.5)
ECU (+3.5)

Fighting Mike Leaches (+17) x2

SJSU (+11) 8-1 on SJSU games this year, including current 7-0 run. Glad they got the win so hopefully I will have 1 more game to bet on them


Saturday:

Bama (-10) ----- HAMMERED

K-State (-17 x2) & (-18 x1) ----- MASTERED

Rutgers (-2.5) small

Florida (+28.5)

Wyoming (+24)

ND (+15)

Southern Miss (+14.5) & ML very small

0.5 unit - ML Parlay: Vandy, BYU, Rice, Colo St, Kansas St

0.5 unit - ML parlay: Bama, Baylor, Va Tech, W Virgin


Lean:
SDSU (-3.5) - wasn't going to bet this, but with Fresno losing, I think we will see a bit effort from the Aztecs since they can get a share of the MW West title (still won't go to the conference title game)
 
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