Same old story, but its do or die in some fantasy leagues, and there's mounting questionables and scenarios (Atleast in my leagues). So let's get into injuries, as it presents itself for DFS/Props/etc. May not have them all.
just a reminder from the Thursday game comments; The bottom 9 of the 14 O/Us are within 41-44 points, Of the remaining 5, 4 are on the main slate, and should be priorities for most stacks (BUF/TBB - SFO/CIN - DAL/WAS - LVR/LCC).
BAL/CLV
BAL DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
CLV DOVA Matchup is great vs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is 13th (/14). O/U is 2nd to last
Baker has the worst ASR matchup of the week. Lamar has the T-10th worst matchup.
Freeman? has the worst ALY matchup of the week.
Slow pace, low over under, don't go overboard. I'd one-off at best. Maybe even a Hunt could be a very low owned pivot.... but we'd have to hope he jumps to his early season workload/usage, as last week tied his lowest snap% to date (38%). With that game included, he's averaged 47%. Low floor, but where else can you get sub 1% ownership, and 20+ point upside, while being cheap too.
I won't talk you off chubb, a bit to pricey for me, but he has RB1 potential any week. Play baker at your own risk, despite a positive DVOA matchup, this isn't a pass first or even pass second team.
Lamar has rushing upside at the position that is unmatched... and I saw the note on how they may want to go a bit uptempo again. He can be a QB1, but I, like most weeks, feel like I don't want him here. Andrews would be my only other consideration. Pass on the RB(s).
I will note lamar has been turnover prone recently, and this is 1 of 2 defenses that are top 10 in ASR and ALY matchup. Not sure if I'm advocating it though.
Edit - Do note - BAL will be without their starting guard (Mekari). And possibly 2 CBs that are questionable (plus a 3rd who's been out for 2 weeks).
Do note - CLV has their CB/LB (Newsome/Walker) out, and 2 DT's/S that are questionable (Jackson/Elliot-Harrison), all of whom just played balty prior to their bye..... actually turns me on to lamar a bit more, especially if they do do more uptempo, as it'll improve the low rated pace as well.
DAL/WAS
DAL DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, and bad vs RB D.
WAS DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, bad vs P D.
Pace of play is 5th (4th highest of main slate), O/U is T-4th.
Heinicke has the T-4th worst ASR matchup. Dak has the 4th best.
Gibson has the T-7th worst ALY matchup.
Oh baby, one of the top 4 in both pace AND O/U's of the main slate. That's a positive. I think Dak+WR+Mclaurin could be a thoughtful game stack (maybe even RSJ/McKissic --- check statuses though, just off memory). I don't want to go overboard here, because I think dallas can win comfortable and we may be in a position where pollard will be out, boosting Zeke's snap % greatly. If so, I think pairing him with DAL Def can be a game leverage play. Kind of like it better. Higher pace, and a lopsided gamescript (that I'm planning for, but could fail), gives both the Defense and RB more opportunities. The last of the only 2 defenses this week that has a top 10 matchup in ASR and ALY.
Won't talk anyone off gibson, I do like the other guys in his price range more, and without mckissic he saw his highest snap share, at 82%... which is effin solid for 6K.
but mckissic did practivce last week, and when he's been active, its a 60-40 split with him at best. Given my predicted gamescript, he may be closer to 40-50% (gibson). Pass.
Schultz and his 95%+ snaps without jarwin here is always viable.
Do Note - DAL - Pollard is the key injury to watch.
WAS - Offensively, McKissic (Samuel is Q, would boost the 3 pass catchers mentioend (Mach5/RSJ/McK) - Defense will be w/o 2 LB's that played last week, another who is questionable, and landon collins, also questionable)
LVR/KCC
LVR DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, good vs P D.
KCC DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is T-1st. O/U is T-4th.
Mahomes as the best ASR matchup.
Helaire has the 2nd best ALY matchup, Jacobs has the T-9th worst ALY matchup.
Oh baby, 2nd of 3 games where we have a top 4 in both pace and O/U.
Where do I start..... Josh Jacobs had 85% snap count, his highest of the year, with Drake getting hurt early (and playing just 12% of snaps - also no richard)... without a threat to be spilled out, Jacobs has 90%+ snap potential ---- w/o drake he ended up with 9 targets last week (9 catches too)... he may be a set it and forget it play as he can't be scripted out here. I will note, and it feels like the first time for the chiefs, but he's T-9th (with 3 people) for worst ALY matchup, which is actually close to middle of the pack. Jones/Renfrow/Edwards all played around 70% of snaps.... renfrow for ppr, edwards for home runs... but do know, d-jax saw 50% of snaps, his most of the year across multiple teams, my gut says pass. We also have moreau without waller.... him and RSJ are the cheap guys you have to pick between if punting TE.
He has a great ALY, and projected gamescript/flow, but I can't really trust helaire... in his two games since returning, he looks to be in a 50-50 split with dar. williams. Unfortunately pass. I'd rather have the guys who can put up monster numbers in Mahomes/Hill/Kelce. If you're looking secondary, pringle continues to see increased usage... D-Rob/Hardman behind him.
Do Note - LVR - missing LB who started last week, and DE for 2 weeks now. (Perryman/Nassib)
KCC - pretty healthy, 1 CB who hasn't played in 2 weeks is out.
SEA/HOU
SEA DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, bad vs P D.
HOU DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is 8th. O/U is last.
Wilson has 3rd worst ASR matchup. Taylor has T-8th worst ASR matchup.
Good vs HOU to have a low key good pass D.... didn't really notice that. We know the problems Seattle has had on offense, but this is HOU, and they do have a healthy Team total as 8.5 point faves, and they may be low owned pivot/leverage plays. I won't go overboard, but one-offing lockett or metcalf could pay dividends. There's no AP, there's no Homer, we know there's been no carson..... Penny is more of the change of pace back. While he's been terrible, I think this could set up collins to pay off a cheap salary. Someone on that team has good TD equity, and the backs have the better matchup, and better gamescript.
We don't want the houston backfield, there's enough cheaper pivot options. Now Taylor could be paired, I think I'd rather one off Cooks, most playing time, plus matchup, continues to fail me every week, so why not try, try again. TE's are in like a 60-40 split... Nico collins is next best snaprate receiving option.
Don't need to go overboard here though.
Do Note - SEA - will be without 1 to 2 of their safetys (Adams for sure, Diggs is questionable)... that would be a huge loss. They will be without 1 O-lineman too.
HOU - they have a LB/S/DE that play last week, all are questionable. Cooks needs to be monitored too.
JAC/TEN
JAC DVOA Matchup is good vs P/RB.
TEN DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, good vs RB D.
Pace of play is 9th. O/U is in the bottom group.
Tannehill has T-5th worst ASR matchup. Lawrence has the 2nd best ASR matchup.
Foreman? has the 6th best ALY matchup.
I don't care for this game, meh pace, meh o/u, wide spread kind of hurts the good pass matchup for tanny. No AJ Brown, Julio may be back, and if he's healthy enough for them to activate, he is viable at a cheap as heck price but I probably wouldn't pair with tanny. I'm interest in a back here, but Hillard and Foreman had a 50/50 split, and mcmuffin is due to come back....we are going to be guessing which of the main 2 even gets to 50% snap share, and that's not even high enough to feel happy about clicking, despite a good matchup/script. I'll note, in the 2 games without julio/aj, Westbrook had 80%+ snaps and 8 targets.
Another week, another good lawrence matchup, and let's see if its another failure...... no dan arnold (and probably negative gamescripts) has led to more WR3 sets... Treadwell has passed shenault in snapshare... jones still the #1. I don't really feel comfortable here, one off at your pleasure. I don't think I want J-Rob here with injury concerns + missing center + negative script. Better options.
Do Note - JAC - is relatively healthy, BUT they will be without there best rated lineman in Linder. (started first 5, and last 2 games... 2nd injury)
TEN - Missing a handful of players, some for a couple weeks...but Jenkins (CB), and cunningham (LB) maybe most notable. Hmmm.
NOS/NYJ
NOS DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
NYJ DVOA Matchup is meh vs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is 10th. O/U is bottom group.
Wilson has T-6th best ASR matchup.
Ingram? has the T-7th best ALY matchup. T. Johnson? has the T-7th worst ALY matchup.
To many injury concerns.
Kamara is back... and there's no ingram or montgomery.... I will say taysom can steal td equity from them. Will be the 4th~ game without their top 2 Olineman (Ramzyk/Armstead). Humphrey may be out which would boost the other 3 WR's production, but I don't see them needing to play catchup to much. I think naked Taysom is the way, or just Kamara, who has a path to 100% snaps...lol
We need to know elijah moore status, as they love to use him. We know Ty Johnson (And maybe walter?) will see a bigger load, and could be used as a punt. Otherwise I want nothing. Also note, Cole played 90~% of snaps without davis last week... without moore... he should be locked in as everydown WR.
Do Note - NOS - Saints will be without 2 LB's, and Cam Jordan... ooof.
NYJ - No Carter (CB), and DE/LB are questionable, Franklin-Myers, and more importantly Moseley, who we would want an update on.
ATL/CAR
ATL DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, bad vs P D.
CAR DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, good vs RB D.
Pace of play is 7th. O/U is bottom - oddly.
Newton has the T-8th worst ASR matchup.
Chubba? has the T-7th best ALY matchup, Patterson? Has the T-9th worst ALY matchup.
The pace is nice, Carolina has exceptionally better matchup... if you think they fall into a script of playing with a decent lead, I think their defense can be considered vs Statue Ice. Edit: Just saw the O'Line issues, ugh.... I kind of want to pass altogether, maybe one-off moore/anderson, but I dont want the timeshare in chubba/abdullah.
You could one-off gage, pitts, patterson.. but none of them standout, and I'd rather others at that price point.
Do Note - ATL - Relatively healthy, a LB/S are both questionable, past week players. That's it
CAR - Holy shit.... just noticed, but Carolina has had 10 different lineman play on the OL, 1 is over 91% of total snaps. They're going to be without Jordan (58% of snaps, last played Wk 12), Miller (75% of snaps, Wk 11), Scott (36%, Wk 12), Erving (72%, Wk 9) -- on top of Paradis (91%/Wk9).
1 PMs done, 4PMs hopefully by tomorrow AM (if not later today)
