WEEK 13

mrpickem

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Sunday 7-4 +1.648u
Week 38-32 +1.08u
YTD -18.45u

Up and down week, but managed to eek out a small profit. Still digging out of terrible April and up 9.6u since low point on May 6. Hoping to build on some decent angles I been using and try to further eliminate bad angles. I don't mind losing a close play but I hate it when I'm just so, so wrong.
FOUR pitchers go today that have gave up average of less than 2 runs per start over L10 (Chacin, Smith, DeGrom, Mikolas) I'm not going with Smith because his road splits so bad, but I will ride other 3 as they are all favored and favs up to 200 in this situation are 24-12 +15% ROI
cb90539e-b24f-4ecc-9e51-8944c1612de6.png


time to...
View attachment 32878
 
Monday 5-5

View attachment 32901

The best laid plans sometimes just not meant to be, Chacin pitches great and loses 1-0 and both SL and TB give up 2 in bottom of 9th to lose by 1. Sometimes I wish I wasn't watching the BS, as I was watching in 9th at HOU and Romo was painting the edge of the zone, but could not get one call from Knight and was forced to bring ball up and basically serve it up for Bregman. At least I took HOU in game +383 to cover my wager.
  • 908 Colorado Rockies -154
  • 910 San Francisco Giants -164
  • 909 Miami Marlins/San Francisco Giants Under 7½ +110
  • 911 Seattle Mariners +158
  • 914 Cleveland Indians -188
  • 916 Houston Astros -1½ -120
  • 916 Houston Astros -250 https://goo.gl/51aqCJ
  • 918 Minnesota Twins +1½ +100
  • 925 Detroit Tigers/Cincinnati Reds Under 9 +100
 
Tuesday 4-6
....uggg, thankfully its
View attachment 32912

So the Astros seem to have trouble with the pesky rays...or either they dont care. Should have lost Mon and did lose last night while only leading 3 of 18 inn played in the 2. May have a play on this one later.

Evan Longoria married well, maybe cause he had good blow ;)
View attachment 32913
..or maybe because ha has made 72M and is still owed close to 80M over next 5 years. You be the judge
 
adding...
  • 953 Los Angeles Dodgers/Chicago Cubs Under 7 +100
  • 955 Miami Marlins/San Francisco Giants Over 7½ -110
Fish as away dog less than 160 vs lefty with a starter whip < 1.20 have nice ROI and the over as well :cool:
View attachment 32920
 
Detroit:
  • Under is 16-5 in DET last 21 games as an underdog.
  • Under is 34-16-1 in DET last 51 road games.
Cincinnati:
  • Under is 8-2-1 in CIN last 11 Wed. games.
  • Under is 6-2 in CIN last 8 interleague games.
So I'm here waiting for my new TV to be delivered today. Really stokes as it's a 85" Sony X900F. Just hope it gets here soon so I can get it setup for early games!
View attachment 32921
 
Chi. White Sox:
  • Under is 7-1-1 in CHW last 9 road games.
  • Under is 24-9-3 in CHW last 36 overall.
  • Under is 24-9-3 in CHW last 36 on grass. :doggie:
Cleveland:
  • CLE are 7-1 in their last 8 Wed. games.
  • Over is 20-5-1 in CLE last 26 home games.
  • Under is 6-2 in CLE last 8 games following a win.
Head to Head:
  • CLE are 7-1 in Klubers last 8 starts vs. CHW.
  • CHW are 7-19 in the last 26 meetings.
 
mrpickem said:
Marlins 4-18 in Urenas last 22 starts...they gotta win eventually right? Plus dude not that bad with 1.15 whip on year thru 88+ inn
Click to expand...

i hear what you are saying pickem, i have watched urena a couple times this year (once live) and he pitched well both times as he seems to most times he pitches....but he seems to come up on the losing end more times than he should, so he is due
 
adding...
  • 964 New York Yankees -1 -150 Felix is shot
  • 959 New York Mets/Colorado Rockies Over 11 -105 Ride the Rox over train
  • 964 New York Yankees -1½ +100
  • 966 Houston Astros -1½ -110 HOU has to play at least one good game in series
  • 969 Texas Rangers/Kansas City Royals Over 9 -120
 
Wednesday 10-7 with one washout

What felt like a workmanlike all day effort actually came down to one big swing of the bat here, without Stanton's blast I may have won eventually but it's always hard to cover RL in x-inn at home. A long day and a lot of action for 1.5u...lol.
  • 902 Colorado Rockies -142 Freeland handles Mets well and Matz has been hit hard by Rox https://goo.gl/hCVRp9
  • 908 Milwaukee Brewers -130 Cmart just not the same going 9-12 on road since last year https://goo.gl/Hw83C1
  • 909 San Diego Padres +146 Ross actually #5 money starter L365 (15-7 +9.4u) while Bum has been one o the biggest fades 4-12 L365
  • 912 New York Yankees -1½ +100 Hate laying stick vs Paxton but I really like NYY..not -200 so much ;)
  • 912 New York Yankees -192 https://goo.gl/2VCQ9B
  • 914 Minnesota Twins +121 Gibson has been top 15 starter money L365 (19-12 +8.1u) and has decent #'s vs sox
  • 916 Chicago White Sox +131 https://goo.gl/ftXibZ
  • 918 Los Angeles Angels -153 https://goo.gl/2VCQ9B / https://goo.gl/hCVRp9
  • 920 Washington Nationals -288 max
Severino #2 ranked money starter L365 despite avg line -198 (28-9 +16u) plus he is allowing avg l< 2 runs per start over L10. Normally I like Paxton but first start in NYY may be a bit overwhelming. I wanted to stay on ROX over as they have went over 10 of last 11 at home, but over only 3-7 in day games at home this year and 14-24 thru last year, so I will lay off. Freeland has handled Mutts so well <115 BA plus Matz give up .373BA to Rox hitters over slightly smaller sample. Somehow it's hot 7-2 or 6-3 written all over it. Skaggs is another start who's been on point lately <2 RPG over L10

View attachment 32927View attachment 32928View attachment 32929

tenor.gif
 
Decided to roll with under in the Bronx, 2 really good starters and a very low total. When total under 8 in day games, the under cashed 24-14 last 5 years. Also would add NYY -1 but Tony hasn't posted it yet
  • 911 Seattle Mariners/New York Yankees Under 7½ +105

Also since '09 when a home favorite has at least 13 unders in last 15 games and then playing a day game, the home team wins 66% of the time and the under cashes 63.5%
b4258706-15b4-46b8-b87d-d3605ec64aaf.png
 
Last edited:
Thursday 6-4
Decent day record wise but only .1u profit. :riphair2:
DANGER, DANGER...lots of chalk = Bad Sign on a Friday!

View attachment 32945

I'd rather be on these indians than the tribe tonight
View attachment 32946
 
No Detroit?
Also understand liking SF today but starting to think close game. Very odd features
 
adding
  • 981 Oakland Athletics -127
  • 981 Oakland Athletics -1½ +130
Bad offesnse off big loss vs good pitch

8f24007b-77e1-4d08-9293-decf8d412cc8.png
 
Friday 4-10

Time to forget that f'n day. Friday always my nemesis in bases, esp when I like mostly favs. Oh well, moving on
  • 901 Miami Marlins +165 Ima glutton
  • 903 Philadelphia Phillies -115 Nola
  • 903 Philadelphia Phillies/Washington Nationals Over 8 -105 already 2nd guessing myself here
  • 909 St. Louis Cardinals -101 Mikolas
  • 909 St. Louis Cardinals/Milwaukee Brewers Under 9 -120
  • 917 Oakland Athletics -118
  • 919 New York Yankees -1½ +100 Come on, it's the rays
  • 919 New York Yankees/Tampa Bay Rays Under 8 -110
  • 921 Detroit Tigers +245 Fuck the tribe
  • 923 Kansas City Royals +295 Ride the tide baybee
  • 926 Boston Red Sox -1½ +125 If sox win they cover stick more than anyone in league
  • 927 Toronto Blue Jays/Los Angeles Angels Over 8½ +105 poor old stroman has went to hell in a hand basket...quick
  • 928 Los Angeles Angels -132 actually had angles points jays, but overruled on gut
Astros seem to lay down to lowly opponents when home. As much as I hate backing Kennedy, McCullers hasn't done much lately (19 runs L5 starts), There is no way I can lay 300+ in this spot. Even have a nifty query for the ROYOS to the tune of 23.6% ROI

08f91a46-60e2-4942-a481-a50d87fbf423.png
 
pickem.....same for me....i get killed on friday's....it defies logic and it does seem to be with favs.....good luck today, love your stuff
 
Saturday 6-6-1

6-1-1 in the afternoon only to go 0-5 at night. :( Did finish a tiny amount above snuff because of fish + and would have had decent profit if only the royos could have held lead.
  • 955 Arizona Diamondbacks +104 https://goo.gl/voY9fj
  • 957 Philadelphia Phillies +108 https://goo.gl/jZkuj8
  • 957 Philadelphia Phillies/Washington Nationals Under 9 -115
  • 959 St. Louis Cardinals/Milwaukee Brewers Over 8½ -110
  • 960 Milwaukee Brewers -133 https://goo.gl/2VCQ9B
  • 963 San Diego Padres/San Francisco Giants Over 8½ +112 https://goo.gl/2VCQ9B
  • 964 San Francisco Giants -130
  • 967 Detroit Tigers +1½ -140
  • 967 Detroit Tigers/Cleveland Indians Over 9½ -103
  • 970 Tampa Bay Rays +135
  • 972 Houston Astros -1½ -150
  • 973 Oakland Athletics +111 https://goo.gl/voY9fj
  • 973 Oakland Athletics/Chicago White Sox Under 9 -105
Here's a bit odd angle I come up with, umpires on SUNDAY that favor road team. Over last 5 years on Sunday with these 4 umps fading home teams, you were 54-26 or 42% ROI

HPU in [Jerry Meals , Nic Lentz , Todd Tichenor , Tom Hallion] and season > 2012 and H and day = Sunday
SU: 26-54 (-0.85, 32.5%) avg line: -122.4 / 109.7 on / against: -$4,396 / +$3,929 ROI: -40.4% / +41.8%
RL: 22-58 (-1.15, 27.5%) avg line: 111.2 / -122.5 on / against: -$3,845 / +$3,465 ROI: -41.9% / +32.6%

TB, NYM, SF, LAA are the teams that qualify for this fade


Damn, I love summer :blowkiss:
a03W9Th.jpg
 
couple early adds

  • 961 Miami Marlins +150 marquez has gave up more runs in L4 starts that smith in L10
  • 975 Texas Rangers +169 colon good vs twinks plus they streakin
 
last adds today

  • 970 Tampa Bay Rays +165 1/2 unit more at much better odds
  • 965 Seattle Mariners +1½ +110 sale hasn't been untouchable and sea too good for these odds
  • 965 Seattle Mariners/Boston Red Sox Under 8½ -105
 
Do you have anything on teams after a DH. Would think it favors the under.

PS: I saw you have the under in the A's game. Just wondering if it related to this.
 
Gaius.T said:
Do you have anything on teams after a DH. Would think it favors the under.

PS: I saw you have the under in the A's game. Just wondering if it related to this.
Click to expand...

Actually to the contrary, the over cashes 57% game after double header and home team wins 62%. The total is a lot closer to even if they go to a different park

https://goo.gl/jD541t

Should have took that advice today
 
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