Style of play: Herm Edwards manages the game like he’s in the NFL. His approach is a bit more conservative with regard to play-calling on third down (live to play the next series), to possession counts and to field position. That’s one reason the Sun Devils are +15 in turnover margin under his watch.
Edwards’ goals — shorten the game but enhance ASU’s chances for victory — might seem incongruous, but they’re aligned.
He wants a fourth-quarter game, where one big play or bad blunder frames the outcome.
And no team in the conference has more experience in close games … no team does a better job remaining patient … than ASU.
Matchups: Oregon’s offensive front has a significant advantage on the line of scrimmage, but ASU’s linebackers and defensive backs are athletic, active and opportunistic.
They fill running lanes and tackle in space and will challenge Oregon to stick with its running game despite early struggles.
Lure the Ducks into a one-dimensional approach, with a heavy reliance on Justin Herbert, and ASU’s job becomes vastly easier.
Flip the matchup, and the Sun Devils possess the playmakers to stress an Oregon defense that allowed more than 30 points to each Washington school.
In fact, they have a better one-two playmaking punch, in tailback Eno Benjamin and receiver/returner Brandon Aiyuk, than does Oregon.
Aiyuk has emerged as one of the best big-play threats in the conference — a mini-version of N’Keal Harry — and Benjamin is more than capable of producing both tough yards and big gains.
Then add to the mix freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels, who has won games with his arm and his legs.
Daniels has been overwhelmed only once, at Utah — in an environment, and against a defense, that he won’t face again — and he should be completely at ease Saturday under the spotlight.
Finally, the timing: The Ducks are vulnerable, not so much in personnel as mentality.
They’re cruising through the conference, they’re in the playoff chase, and they’re a huge favorite against an unranked team that has dropped four in a row and just lost to Oregon State
.
If anything can undermine the Ducks’ sense of urgency — their level of healthy fear — it’s facing a team that
just lost to the Beavers.
But that’s not all.
The Ducks beat Washington State with 100 yards in penalties.
They walloped USC with 157 yards in penalties.
They are No. 74 in the country in penalties per game and No. 119 in the penalty yards per game.
When you’re sloppy and you win, there’s no desperation to self-correct … until it’s too late.
The Huskies and Cougars pushed Oregon to the brink.
The Trojans stumbled all over themselves.
Arizona simply isn’t good enough.
But the Sun Devils won’t beat themselves, they have the playmakers to keep pace, and they will push everything into a final, whirling five minutes, when management and mistakes tip the balance and Oregon’s dreams die, once again, in the desert.
The Hotline sees an Oregon loss this week in Tempe, and we see it from both directions: Looking down from 30,000 feet and looking up through the details of personnel, schemes, matchups and trends.
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