Week 13 ML Dogs
- Thread starter ProV1Colt
- Start date
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
I'll start it with a guaranteed to not even cover, just like UNLV and CSU last week. UTEP for me this week. At least have showed a pulse the last two weeks. Rivalry game here. NMSU is probably still celebrating beating Incarnate Word for their first win of the season.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I couldn't believe it when I saw New Mexico State was a TD favorite!
One thing that I try and avoid, is if I got a bad beat or a raw deal or made a bad bet on a team the week before, I am not afraid of going back on them the next week if the situation and variables calls for it.
So not afraid of backing UTEP again even though they did not come through last week.
Last week they played one of the better defenses they will see this year in UAB. Not so here.
The question is...WTF are they doing at QB? Is the Hardison kid good/better than what they had and they were just holding him back to save a redshirt? And what is going on with Locksley?
UAB doesn't threaten much on O, so UTEP didn't do a bad job vs them. UAB had one very very short TD "drive" set up by a leaping INT by a rushing LB (that was the last play for Locksley) and then UTEP gave up a back breaking like 80y QB run on a zone read up the gut. UTEP was also at the UAB 2 twice (I think it was twice) and failed to score. Once Hardison had a WR on a great route to the corner EZ and just overthrew it.
Somebody is going to have some explaining to do if New Mexico State is any kind of sizable favorite over UTEP...let alone anyone!
One thing that I try and avoid, is if I got a bad beat or a raw deal or made a bad bet on a team the week before, I am not afraid of going back on them the next week if the situation and variables calls for it.
So not afraid of backing UTEP again even though they did not come through last week.
Last week they played one of the better defenses they will see this year in UAB. Not so here.
The question is...WTF are they doing at QB? Is the Hardison kid good/better than what they had and they were just holding him back to save a redshirt? And what is going on with Locksley?
UAB doesn't threaten much on O, so UTEP didn't do a bad job vs them. UAB had one very very short TD "drive" set up by a leaping INT by a rushing LB (that was the last play for Locksley) and then UTEP gave up a back breaking like 80y QB run on a zone read up the gut. UTEP was also at the UAB 2 twice (I think it was twice) and failed to score. Once Hardison had a WR on a great route to the corner EZ and just overthrew it.
Somebody is going to have some explaining to do if New Mexico State is any kind of sizable favorite over UTEP...let alone anyone!
number2
Pretty much a regular
I like the over here.....TT overs too.....
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Stats are the same, and schedule is much tougher.
VolsWhiskeyMaker
Pretty much a regular
Vols once again on the ML for me.
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
UTEP @ New Mexico St: Pic 1 shows comparisons of previous seasons records and current seasons records. Home teams with a difference of more than -7 between wins and losses are 8-3 SU. Not great overall numbers but, if you look closer, you'll see the losses were -15.5, -7, and -1.5 favs....so the losses were sprinkled through the favorites...that's good for UTEP backers. Pic 2 I added the revenge component for UTEP and it comes out 1-2 SU for the home team. The two favs lost and the lone win was a dog. Not bad overall news for UTEP backers and an argument can be made that this is a definite possibility. I'm certainly not adding any news here that should dissuade from playing the Miners. Put this in the FWIW column.....
Marsski
MAC Marvel
I might be throwing my money away but there's no way that Akron ML +3359 doesn't have a small shot.
Miami Oh has clinched the MAC East and their offense isn't any good (#121 in total O). Cato can sling it for the Zips. The defense disparity is obviously huge Miami's way but Akron desperate for a win and Miami absolutely zero to play for.
Even though Akron is awful, the difference between teams in the MAC isn't that great. Worth a sprinkle, 10 wins you 335...if you can find it. Prime spot for some MAC shadiness IMO.
Miami Oh has clinched the MAC East and their offense isn't any good (#121 in total O). Cato can sling it for the Zips. The defense disparity is obviously huge Miami's way but Akron desperate for a win and Miami absolutely zero to play for.
Even though Akron is awful, the difference between teams in the MAC isn't that great. Worth a sprinkle, 10 wins you 335...if you can find it. Prime spot for some MAC shadiness IMO.
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2daBank
Voice of Reason
No offense to Vols but I think it very mizzou under this coach to win these next 2. Their mo is to do so then he pitches the narrative they heading in right direction every offseason. Lot of guys I respect were on them last week and I didn’t see it at all but now against a similarly average sec team at home I think you will see tigers get the W.,
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I’d love to fade corn but don’t trust Terps at all.
VolsWhiskeyMaker
Pretty much a regular
To be honest I think the play is the under more than anything. Just throwing a decent underdog ML option out there as Missouri hasn’t done much on the offensive side of the ball.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I agree they suck, it just more their typical mo that they win these last 2, certainly might be different this year. I’m not exactly super excited to bet them although I lean that way. They have beaten the other mediocre sec teams at home.
Ryno14
Pretty much a regular
I think you’re letting your feelings of “typical Missouri” get too in the way here. Very different team than the last few years. I certainly think it’s probably the worst team they’ve had that I can remember in recent history and coming in on a losing streak. Hell - who knows if they even have anything to play for. Vols also best SC by 20 at home, and would say they’re also better than Ole Miss, so not sure you can say they’re all the same. Vols can always Vols, but give me the fresh team off a bye with a team going in the complete opposite direction.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
And I think you vastly overrating Vols. Mizzou defense ranks better across the board. Far as the directions they allegedly going it a absolute product of schedules imo.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Vols have already won 6 and will be bowling. Meanwhile, a team that has beaten them three straight times is on deck.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Potential Dogs of a TD or greater
Colorado State (7) - Wyoming is still an offensively challenged team. Average 5,5 yards per play on offense and have cleared 400 yards just twice all year. That is a hard team to lay points with. wyoming bowl eligible, CSU needs a win here and a win at home vs boise. Tough. CSU defense been playing decent last 5, not giving up over 400 yards in any of them and they primarily were playing vs running offenses, of which Wyoming would apply. Seems like it is worth it to me. Probably be in the thirties at altitude which shouldn't bother Rams the way it would some other teams. Wyoming defense is tough though.
Northwestern - Rates to be a grinder and NW matches up well to be in it late in that type of scenario. Minny undefeated season ends and they have to rebound and play against a team that matches up well against their offense. Might be live at a decent number and NW is better than their record or even their performances imo. Pretty big road favorite number to try and cover.
Uconn - Appears ECU turned a corner but they qualify as a bad favorite and that is a huge number, meaning the ML is huge as well. Uconn rates to be able to move the ball.
UTEP - NMSU could outblunder the miners. I think miners have improved the last few games. road trip is short.
Cuse- Potentially have turned a corner. Ville defense can be had. Price is right.
Arkansas - just kidding
Duke - off a few bad games but Wake is banged up and Duke needs the last two for bowl eligibility. Seems sneaky.
Colorado State (7) - Wyoming is still an offensively challenged team. Average 5,5 yards per play on offense and have cleared 400 yards just twice all year. That is a hard team to lay points with. wyoming bowl eligible, CSU needs a win here and a win at home vs boise. Tough. CSU defense been playing decent last 5, not giving up over 400 yards in any of them and they primarily were playing vs running offenses, of which Wyoming would apply. Seems like it is worth it to me. Probably be in the thirties at altitude which shouldn't bother Rams the way it would some other teams. Wyoming defense is tough though.
Northwestern - Rates to be a grinder and NW matches up well to be in it late in that type of scenario. Minny undefeated season ends and they have to rebound and play against a team that matches up well against their offense. Might be live at a decent number and NW is better than their record or even their performances imo. Pretty big road favorite number to try and cover.
Uconn - Appears ECU turned a corner but they qualify as a bad favorite and that is a huge number, meaning the ML is huge as well. Uconn rates to be able to move the ball.
UTEP - NMSU could outblunder the miners. I think miners have improved the last few games. road trip is short.
Cuse- Potentially have turned a corner. Ville defense can be had. Price is right.
Arkansas - just kidding
Duke - off a few bad games but Wake is banged up and Duke needs the last two for bowl eligibility. Seems sneaky.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I'll be considering these:
Kent State
- Ball St has lost 3 straight and no matter how flukey Kent's win over Buffalo was, this is home finale and I think that enthusiasm can carry over here.
Illinois
- I feel like I should like Iowa here, but I don't. Admit it would be hard for ILL to win...Iowa D is tight. Iowa O...averages just 19.25 ppg vs IA teams, that includes 30 vs Rutgers. Still feels like I should like Iowa, but I don't know...Iowa beat them 63-0 last year, holy Hawkeye!
Indiana
- Kind of a sneaky tight series the last 4 years. Michigan in tough sandwich. Philyor status?
Texas A&M
- Kinda like the Iowa game...Georgia O limitations just keeps leaving a door open for somebody to beat them. UGA avg just 25.75 vs IA teams...that includes the 43 they put on Vols with the D TD at the end. Little bit of a late season resurgence for Ags?
Charlotte
- Marshall throws some clunkers out there every now and then (only scored 20 on Rice, beat WKU at buzzer - maybe that isn't too bad?, lost to MTSU). Brad Lambert is on Marshall's staff, he was Charlotte's former HC. Charlotte has won 3 in a row. Game was tied 13-13 3rd Q last year, Marshall won by DD - that is how Charlotte loses alot of games it seems.
Rice
- not sure of Fine's status, but Rice might be able to ride momentum wave to close the season. NTex is a shell of their former self and Rice had noncovering losses to both Marshall and Southern Miss, but holding those teams to 20 pts each is fairly impressive.
LaTech
- Yes even with the backup QB, I don't think UAB will have enough O, this LT D should be good enough to hold them down. LaTech needs win to stay in CUSA division lead. UAB has won 17 straight home games. This is their last game in Legion Field. UAB has upset LT last 2 years.
UTEP
- Per MW's post I see that NMSt has played a substantially tougher schedule, still the talent on these teams should be evenly matched. Battle of I-10 Rivalry. Admittedly I know nothing about New Mexico State except when I bet against them vs Ole Miss. In last year's loss UTEP outgained them 429-311, but lost 3 TOs.
Troy
- If the O is working they can maybe outscore ULL. ULL D is pretty solid, although they don't typically face many good Os.
Duke
- I don't think Duke has quit or mailed it in. I do think the UNC loss took alot out of them. Notre Dame is a tough game to rebound against and they were totally flat last week. Don't think they will be flat this week, WF beat them 59-7 last year. If Duke needed some motivation, that is it, players are talking about it. Talk is one thing, Walk is another. They need to find some O. Feels like Wake has peaked and lost some mojo.
Arizona State
- Weird feeling on this one. Daniels returned last week and had one of his best games of the season except for in the rushing department. Oregon is good, yeah, I get that, but they aren't consistent and there is a history of them having a WTF game...will this be it? The last 2 years this game has been decided by 2 points.
Oregon State
- Beavs can abosolutely do this. I ML'd them last year and failed, but check they were only outgained by 32 yards after digging themselves a hole. This Wazzou team is not last year's Wazzou team. Anyone see that Stanford's backup QB set a school record passing last week vs W St D? Oregon State plenty comfortable playing on the road 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS.
Utah State
- Aggies off their two best games of the year and probably should've beat Wyoming and Fresno worse than they did the last 2. Boise is good, but eh...maybe they have rest Bachmeirer enough for him to return. Last time I saw him vs San Jose I wasn't impressed. Is Boise really as good this year as some people think? Jordan Love's final game in Logan. Utah St can play their way into a 3-way division tie with a win.
Kent State
- Ball St has lost 3 straight and no matter how flukey Kent's win over Buffalo was, this is home finale and I think that enthusiasm can carry over here.
Illinois
- I feel like I should like Iowa here, but I don't. Admit it would be hard for ILL to win...Iowa D is tight. Iowa O...averages just 19.25 ppg vs IA teams, that includes 30 vs Rutgers. Still feels like I should like Iowa, but I don't know...Iowa beat them 63-0 last year, holy Hawkeye!
Indiana
- Kind of a sneaky tight series the last 4 years. Michigan in tough sandwich. Philyor status?
Texas A&M
- Kinda like the Iowa game...Georgia O limitations just keeps leaving a door open for somebody to beat them. UGA avg just 25.75 vs IA teams...that includes the 43 they put on Vols with the D TD at the end. Little bit of a late season resurgence for Ags?
Charlotte
- Marshall throws some clunkers out there every now and then (only scored 20 on Rice, beat WKU at buzzer - maybe that isn't too bad?, lost to MTSU). Brad Lambert is on Marshall's staff, he was Charlotte's former HC. Charlotte has won 3 in a row. Game was tied 13-13 3rd Q last year, Marshall won by DD - that is how Charlotte loses alot of games it seems.
Rice
- not sure of Fine's status, but Rice might be able to ride momentum wave to close the season. NTex is a shell of their former self and Rice had noncovering losses to both Marshall and Southern Miss, but holding those teams to 20 pts each is fairly impressive.
LaTech
- Yes even with the backup QB, I don't think UAB will have enough O, this LT D should be good enough to hold them down. LaTech needs win to stay in CUSA division lead. UAB has won 17 straight home games. This is their last game in Legion Field. UAB has upset LT last 2 years.
UTEP
- Per MW's post I see that NMSt has played a substantially tougher schedule, still the talent on these teams should be evenly matched. Battle of I-10 Rivalry. Admittedly I know nothing about New Mexico State except when I bet against them vs Ole Miss. In last year's loss UTEP outgained them 429-311, but lost 3 TOs.
Troy
- If the O is working they can maybe outscore ULL. ULL D is pretty solid, although they don't typically face many good Os.
Duke
- I don't think Duke has quit or mailed it in. I do think the UNC loss took alot out of them. Notre Dame is a tough game to rebound against and they were totally flat last week. Don't think they will be flat this week, WF beat them 59-7 last year. If Duke needed some motivation, that is it, players are talking about it. Talk is one thing, Walk is another. They need to find some O. Feels like Wake has peaked and lost some mojo.
Arizona State
- Weird feeling on this one. Daniels returned last week and had one of his best games of the season except for in the rushing department. Oregon is good, yeah, I get that, but they aren't consistent and there is a history of them having a WTF game...will this be it? The last 2 years this game has been decided by 2 points.
Oregon State
- Beavs can abosolutely do this. I ML'd them last year and failed, but check they were only outgained by 32 yards after digging themselves a hole. This Wazzou team is not last year's Wazzou team. Anyone see that Stanford's backup QB set a school record passing last week vs W St D? Oregon State plenty comfortable playing on the road 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS.
Utah State
- Aggies off their two best games of the year and probably should've beat Wyoming and Fresno worse than they did the last 2. Boise is good, but eh...maybe they have rest Bachmeirer enough for him to return. Last time I saw him vs San Jose I wasn't impressed. Is Boise really as good this year as some people think? Jordan Love's final game in Logan. Utah St can play their way into a 3-way division tie with a win.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
No
Ryno14
Pretty much a regular
Unless you're counting Vandy as a win already, they've won 5.
Ryno14
Pretty much a regular
I wouldn't consider losing to Vandy and getting walloped by Kentucky as a product of the schedules, but best of luck this weekend. I could be completely wrong and Missouri plays one of their best games of the year. They're certainly favored for a reason.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
I can't believe K-State is getting upwards of 3 now at Tech. Trust that team a lot more than I do TTU.
captjohn67
Pretty much a regular
E Kentucky +120
- Eastern leads the OVC in scoring defense (21.9 ppg), passing yards allowed (196.6 per game), third down defense (31.4 percent) and red-zone defense (68.6 percent). The Colonels are second in rushing defense (122.6 per game) and total defense (319.3 per game).
Just not sure how Jax St can care about this one. Yes they always play well at home, but being the preseason fav to win the conference and ranked in the top 10 is a distant memory. The Colonels also have a RB who is 10th in the nation with over 1,100 yds. Rainy day from the looks of it currently. The Colonels might also be very motivated to avenge last years 56-7 thumping as well.
- Eastern leads the OVC in scoring defense (21.9 ppg), passing yards allowed (196.6 per game), third down defense (31.4 percent) and red-zone defense (68.6 percent). The Colonels are second in rushing defense (122.6 per game) and total defense (319.3 per game).
Just not sure how Jax St can care about this one. Yes they always play well at home, but being the preseason fav to win the conference and ranked in the top 10 is a distant memory. The Colonels also have a RB who is 10th in the nation with over 1,100 yds. Rainy day from the looks of it currently. The Colonels might also be very motivated to avenge last years 56-7 thumping as well.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
LOL. You're right.
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
Michigan @ Indiana: comparisons in the pic below include previous and current season records, revenge factor for home team, and previous week's result for the home team. Record is 7-7 SU and includes 13 out of 14 sampled game were all dogs....all 7 of the wins were from dogs and includes wins by two 9s, a 9.5, and 14pt dogs. 50% SU win % is some good odds for a dog. IU ML will make my card for sure.
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
Texas A&M & Jawja: Interesting SU results in my comparisons come out to 6-6 SU for the home team. As I mentioned above, 50% odds for the dog are great odds but I do not like the Bulldogs line of -13.5 being at the top of the food chain even though a -12.5 fav lost. And my gut is telling me I'm not sure A&M can hang the full 60 minutes. A closer look of all the favs reveals, however, that the record for the home team in first halves was 1-2-2 SU. We know that was a huge win for the Bulldoggies down on the plains last week so could a bit of a hangover be in effect for the 1st half of this game? My query results below seem to indicate that might be the case. Will have to keep Texas A&M 1st Qtr & 1st Half MLs as an option.
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
@Marsski gonna tale you for a half to see if I can get a head start on my weekend....can't do the FG but who the hell knows what can happen in a half.....3, 4, 5, & 6-teamer RRs.
Indiana +295, Illinois +500, Rice +210, UTEP +245, Akron +1350 for 1st Half, & Texas A&M +325 for 1st Half
Risking $21.00 (42 parlays at $0.50) To Win $25,447.83
Indiana +295, Illinois +500, Rice +210, UTEP +245, Akron +1350 for 1st Half, & Texas A&M +325 for 1st Half
Risking $21.00 (42 parlays at $0.50) To Win $25,447.83
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I was obviously referring to their latest 2 and how easy Vols have had it. Not sure there much point judging anything mizzou has done on road tho as they been a special type of suck away from home.
Think i actually agree w Vols wiscy maker about under looking maybe better than side. Not like I love mizzou but I do feel like line a tad short.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Illini looking all kinds of sexy again. Little worried how they gonna score on Iowa but at same time seems crazy they keep catching all these points., not sure i have the stones for a ml tho.
Hoosiers tempting as well.,, Michigan is rolling that for sure bu seems like a week they could be looking ahead? Maybe over better if dog hangs in it?
Hoosiers tempting as well.,, Michigan is rolling that for sure bu seems like a week they could be looking ahead? Maybe over better if dog hangs in it?
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Oregon could be vulnerable.
Ducks last road trip was a blowout win, however that game was 10-0 USC then 3 straight turnovers led to 3 straight Oregon TDs including a pick-six then a KO ret TD and Ducks straight blew Trojans out in 2nd H. This game shows me that they have potential to start slow and get behind early.
Washington State nearly beat Ducks in Autzen. Game was a one score game throughout except for a short period when Ore went up by 11. Wazzou had a late lead, but Herbert led Ducks down for game winning FG as time expired.
At Washington, Ducks trailed by 14 and by 10 in the 2nd H before rallying for a 35-31 win.
Few teams have the defensive prowess of Cal, but the Bears held the Ducks to just 17 pts.
What does all this mean? Vs the right D, Oregon can be slowed. Vs the right O they can fall behind in the 4th Q, even by DD. Occasionally, Oregon might not get off to a fast start.
Is Arizona State the right team to pull the trick?
With Herm last year Oregon only won this game 31-29 (ASU 2pt to tie failed late). And in 2017 ASU won 37-35 as 14.5pt dogs!
The 2017 loss marks a pattern of games Oregon has been upset in. Last year Oregon lost at a 3-5 Arizona team. Two years ago, Ducks dropped that game in Tempe. 2016 they were bad, so we'll skip that year. 2015 Oregon lost twice a DD road favs. 2014 Ducks lost as a 24pt road fav at Zona.
Arizona State has a history of pulling upsets outside of Oregon. Last year they beat Utah. 2017 not only did they beat Oregon, they also beat #5 Washington.
Currently, ASU is in a 4 game losing streak. ASU outgained Ore St and lost by 1. Despite falling behind big vs USC due to ASU starting a Tr Fr QB, ASU rallied and had the ball late losing by 5. They were beat worse than score shows vs UCLA. And Utah did dominate them worse than the score shows.
ASU has had issues on the OL, the running game has struggled and the pass D lately has been gashed, the run D hasn't been great....kinda bad news facing a top team.
Going out on a limb and having some faith, knowing that unexpected upsets can and do happen and I feel Oregon is good, but maybe not that good and isn't immune to an upset like this. Just when everyone is expecting and talking about the game vs Utah, the playoff, here is Arizona St at home in a national TV primetime game, hungry for a statement game. Vs a team they know they can compete with. If things go right...Daniels might even be the better QB in this game. Daniels is plenty capable of having a big game, the receivers can get it done and if they can get some blocks we know the kind of RB Benjamin is.
Ducks last road trip was a blowout win, however that game was 10-0 USC then 3 straight turnovers led to 3 straight Oregon TDs including a pick-six then a KO ret TD and Ducks straight blew Trojans out in 2nd H. This game shows me that they have potential to start slow and get behind early.
Washington State nearly beat Ducks in Autzen. Game was a one score game throughout except for a short period when Ore went up by 11. Wazzou had a late lead, but Herbert led Ducks down for game winning FG as time expired.
At Washington, Ducks trailed by 14 and by 10 in the 2nd H before rallying for a 35-31 win.
Few teams have the defensive prowess of Cal, but the Bears held the Ducks to just 17 pts.
What does all this mean? Vs the right D, Oregon can be slowed. Vs the right O they can fall behind in the 4th Q, even by DD. Occasionally, Oregon might not get off to a fast start.
Is Arizona State the right team to pull the trick?
With Herm last year Oregon only won this game 31-29 (ASU 2pt to tie failed late). And in 2017 ASU won 37-35 as 14.5pt dogs!
The 2017 loss marks a pattern of games Oregon has been upset in. Last year Oregon lost at a 3-5 Arizona team. Two years ago, Ducks dropped that game in Tempe. 2016 they were bad, so we'll skip that year. 2015 Oregon lost twice a DD road favs. 2014 Ducks lost as a 24pt road fav at Zona.
Arizona State has a history of pulling upsets outside of Oregon. Last year they beat Utah. 2017 not only did they beat Oregon, they also beat #5 Washington.
Currently, ASU is in a 4 game losing streak. ASU outgained Ore St and lost by 1. Despite falling behind big vs USC due to ASU starting a Tr Fr QB, ASU rallied and had the ball late losing by 5. They were beat worse than score shows vs UCLA. And Utah did dominate them worse than the score shows.
ASU has had issues on the OL, the running game has struggled and the pass D lately has been gashed, the run D hasn't been great....kinda bad news facing a top team.
Going out on a limb and having some faith, knowing that unexpected upsets can and do happen and I feel Oregon is good, but maybe not that good and isn't immune to an upset like this. Just when everyone is expecting and talking about the game vs Utah, the playoff, here is Arizona St at home in a national TV primetime game, hungry for a statement game. Vs a team they know they can compete with. If things go right...Daniels might even be the better QB in this game. Daniels is plenty capable of having a big game, the receivers can get it done and if they can get some blocks we know the kind of RB Benjamin is.
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
A 3pt final margin is pretty dang close for a +3000 dog Marski!! This was certainly a good call on the letdown!! I did not see the 2nd half. Did they have any shot to win towards the end?
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Was listening to Lance Taylor yesterday on Austin radio. Birmingham-based guy who I follow and respect for his CFB knowledge. This is the game he pegged for a big upset over the weekend. FWIW.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Thanks for offering it some legitimacy.
I wish that Arizona State was playing a little better, but it isn't like they are playing awful either. I don't follow rankings like I used to, but certainly there are examples of late season upsets that few/nobody sees coming. This one seems to have some of the elements to be one of those.
Marsski
MAC Marvel
Akron drove down inside the Miami 35 and had a 2nd and 3 before taking sacks that turned them back in the final 2 mins. I got my money’s worth but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t disappointed they couldn’t close the deal.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Akron was a good call Marsski. You were spot on with the read on Miami and Akron was almost ready to pull something like that off.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Oregon State is one of the ML dog MVPs for 2018!
Beavers have pulled 4 outright upsets in PAC12 play so far.
Of note, Oregon State has beat three teams that Washington St lost to in Cal, Arizona State and UCLA. UCLA needed an epic comeback vs WSt (or epic Cougs collapse), Beavers jumped on them early and won by 17. OSU did face ASU at home while WSt played them on the road and OSU beat Cal with Modster getting injured late in that game, however prior to the injury Modster was having a pretty poor game. Modster came back off a bye week and I can;t believe what I'm about to say, but he lit up Washingtion St D - not good for Cougs D reputation.
So if Devin Modster can do that to Wazzou...and Stanford's 2nd string QB can set a school record for passing yards against Wazzou, what might a better passing attack do vs Cougs? And Oregon State can bring some offensive balance as well with their running game that has taken more of a backseat this year due to the passing success that was missing last year.
Oregon State QB Jake Luton is having a great season 63%, 2306y, 23-2 ratio. He can go cold at times and superior Ds can limit him, but vs average PAC12 Ds he has show the ability to get it done and take care of the football. WR Isiah Hodgins is one of 12 Biletnikoff semi-finalists. Hodgins is the go-to guy, but Luton threw TDs to 4 different receivers last week and TE Togiai is off his best game of the season. Many would be surprised to learn that Oregon State in fact has the nation's #1 TD RZ O scoring TDs at a 85% rate. And they've only lost 4 turnovers this season compared to 18 last year.
Washington State's D is still not good. Of all teams, Cal topped 7 yards per play against them, the first such game for Cal this season (Cal's avg is sub 5ypp). The rushing stats are going to be a little skewed because Stanford only ran for 6y on 10att last week (1/3 of their ssn average opting to throw about every play instead), but WSt allows teams to pretty much do what they want with several teams rushing for about 200ypg or passing for 300-500ypg. In fact, Oregon St's D statistically is better than WSt pretty much across the board. And we know Oregon State's D isn't something to normally rely upon so that says more about WSt's defensive regression, but also to the Beaver's improved this year. One area in particular is TFL and sacks, with Beavs leading the PAC12 with 80 TFL, they are getting nearly double TFL per game than last year (8 vs 4.4). And with 2 games left to play Oregon State had doubled their sack total this year over last. Chase Young might be the best DE in the game, but Hamilcar Rashed leads the nation in sacks (14) and TFLs (22.5)! Beavers D is allowing 14ppg less, and over 100ypg less than they did last year. Something that jumps out is that JJ Taylor and Eno Benjamin had record setting games vs OreSt run D last year, this year they were each held below 100y!
Oregon State is a vastly improved team while Washington St remains a dangerous offense, they are not the team they were last season. Gordon is putting up great numbers yet still lacks the ability to improvise and make it happen on the fly like Minshew did. Last season WSt beat Ore St without their starting QB, Blount was more of a game manager backup QB last year. This year Luton is an efficient play making QB that can pick apart this WSt D just like many before him have.
Both teams are 5-5 and still need to reach bowl eligibility. Oregon State is on the up swing while WSt feels to me to be lacking something....maybe this is the year Leach jumps ship for somewhere else. If Oregon St can get pressure, like they have shown this year, they can hurry Gordon and potentially force some mistakes and get some picks. DB Nahshon Wright is a JC who has had a big impact as had Jaydon Grant in his first season starting. As with other defensive groups, the defensive backfield is better with added talent and more experienced now from last year's group which is good facing WSt.
Jonathan Smith is doing a great job here. Prior he was the Washington QB and OC 2014-2017...those Husky teams never had any problem with Wazzou. O shouldn't be a problem again, last year with the backup QB Oregon St scored 37 and put up 497 yards of O. This year is a much better Beavers team.
Beavers have pulled 4 outright upsets in PAC12 play so far.
Of note, Oregon State has beat three teams that Washington St lost to in Cal, Arizona State and UCLA. UCLA needed an epic comeback vs WSt (or epic Cougs collapse), Beavers jumped on them early and won by 17. OSU did face ASU at home while WSt played them on the road and OSU beat Cal with Modster getting injured late in that game, however prior to the injury Modster was having a pretty poor game. Modster came back off a bye week and I can;t believe what I'm about to say, but he lit up Washingtion St D - not good for Cougs D reputation.
So if Devin Modster can do that to Wazzou...and Stanford's 2nd string QB can set a school record for passing yards against Wazzou, what might a better passing attack do vs Cougs? And Oregon State can bring some offensive balance as well with their running game that has taken more of a backseat this year due to the passing success that was missing last year.
Oregon State QB Jake Luton is having a great season 63%, 2306y, 23-2 ratio. He can go cold at times and superior Ds can limit him, but vs average PAC12 Ds he has show the ability to get it done and take care of the football. WR Isiah Hodgins is one of 12 Biletnikoff semi-finalists. Hodgins is the go-to guy, but Luton threw TDs to 4 different receivers last week and TE Togiai is off his best game of the season. Many would be surprised to learn that Oregon State in fact has the nation's #1 TD RZ O scoring TDs at a 85% rate. And they've only lost 4 turnovers this season compared to 18 last year.
Washington State's D is still not good. Of all teams, Cal topped 7 yards per play against them, the first such game for Cal this season (Cal's avg is sub 5ypp). The rushing stats are going to be a little skewed because Stanford only ran for 6y on 10att last week (1/3 of their ssn average opting to throw about every play instead), but WSt allows teams to pretty much do what they want with several teams rushing for about 200ypg or passing for 300-500ypg. In fact, Oregon St's D statistically is better than WSt pretty much across the board. And we know Oregon State's D isn't something to normally rely upon so that says more about WSt's defensive regression, but also to the Beaver's improved this year. One area in particular is TFL and sacks, with Beavs leading the PAC12 with 80 TFL, they are getting nearly double TFL per game than last year (8 vs 4.4). And with 2 games left to play Oregon State had doubled their sack total this year over last. Chase Young might be the best DE in the game, but Hamilcar Rashed leads the nation in sacks (14) and TFLs (22.5)! Beavers D is allowing 14ppg less, and over 100ypg less than they did last year. Something that jumps out is that JJ Taylor and Eno Benjamin had record setting games vs OreSt run D last year, this year they were each held below 100y!
Oregon State is a vastly improved team while Washington St remains a dangerous offense, they are not the team they were last season. Gordon is putting up great numbers yet still lacks the ability to improvise and make it happen on the fly like Minshew did. Last season WSt beat Ore St without their starting QB, Blount was more of a game manager backup QB last year. This year Luton is an efficient play making QB that can pick apart this WSt D just like many before him have.
Both teams are 5-5 and still need to reach bowl eligibility. Oregon State is on the up swing while WSt feels to me to be lacking something....maybe this is the year Leach jumps ship for somewhere else. If Oregon St can get pressure, like they have shown this year, they can hurry Gordon and potentially force some mistakes and get some picks. DB Nahshon Wright is a JC who has had a big impact as had Jaydon Grant in his first season starting. As with other defensive groups, the defensive backfield is better with added talent and more experienced now from last year's group which is good facing WSt.
Jonathan Smith is doing a great job here. Prior he was the Washington QB and OC 2014-2017...those Husky teams never had any problem with Wazzou. O shouldn't be a problem again, last year with the backup QB Oregon St scored 37 and put up 497 yards of O. This year is a much better Beavers team.
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2daBank
Voice of Reason
I def like asu to cover but think I’ve given up trying to beat ducks or utes on the ml, they appear to be on a collision course for winner to make the playoff.
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
UCF@Tulane: comparisons in the pic below include previous season records, current season records, both team's rest, previous week's results for home team, and revenge factor. SU record is 6-4 for the home team. Oddly enough, all the losses came from home favs. A -12, -9, -5, and -1.5 all lost but all 3 of the home dogs won. Interesting.....
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
ECU@UConn: very interesting game here esp. since UConn is sitting at +500. Pic 1 has my comparisons of previous season records, current season records, the home team coming off a road loss of greater than 40pts and unbelievably the home team has a 8-5-1 SU record!! It gets better, when I enter the revenge factor in pic 2, the SU record becomes 6-2 for the home team! The results include a win by a 17pt dog as well. Lastly, a quick check of my fav strength of schedule website says UConn has a power rating of 29 and ECU has a power rating of 26....nice!
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
Boise@Utah State: my normal comparisons in the pic but I added double revenge factor. Nice 4-3 SU record including a 14pt home dog winner. But I also found that Utah State has the 2nd largest gap of any dog playing this weekend. Largest gap belongs to Rice. Utah State certainly worth some consideration.
