• Time to make 1st round picks for the College Football Playoff Contest!

Week 13 Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Nov 21 Tue 2023

06:00 PM
103Bowling Green-1
-115		O 54
-110
104Western Michigan+1
-105		U 54
-110
06:30 PM
101Eastern Michigan+7
-115		O 40½
-110
102Buffalo-7
-105		U 40½
-110
Nov 23 Thu 2023

06:30 PM
111Mississippi-11½
-110		O 56½
-110
112Mississippi State+11½
-110		U 56½
-110
Nov 24 Fri 2023

11:00 AM
115Miami Florida-9
-115		O 48½
-110
116Boston College+9
-105		U 48½
-110
11:00 AM
117Ohio-14
-110		O 41
-110
118Akron+14
-110		U 41
-110
11:00 AM
119Toledo-11
-115		O 56
-110
120Central Michigan+11
-105		U 56
-110
11:00 AM
121Iowa+1½
-105		O 27½
-105
122Nebraska-1½
-115		U 27½
-115
11:00 AM
123TCU+13
-110		O 63
-110
124Oklahoma+1 Markets-13
-110		U 63
-110
11:00 AM
173Memphis-10
-116		O 65½
-110
174Temple+10
-104		U 65½
-110
02:30 PM
125Utah State-9½
-110		O 62½
-110
126New Mexico+9½
-110		U 62½
-110
03:00 PM
127Missouri-7
-115		O 54½
-110
128Arkansas+7
-105		U 54½
-110
03:00 PM
129Air Force+6
-115		O 45
-110
130Boise State-6
-105		U 45
-110
06:30 PM
131Texas Tech+14½
-110		O 52½
-110
132Texas-14½
-110		U 52½
-110
06:30 PM
133Penn State-20
-110		O 43½
-110
134Michigan State+20
-110		U 43½
-110
07:30 PM
135Oregon State+14
-115		O 63
-110
136Oregon-14
-105		U 63
-110
Nov 25 Sat 2023

11:00 AM
141Ohio State+4
-110		O 46
-110
142Michigan+1 Markets-4
-110		U 46
-110
01:00 PM
139Wake Forest+3
-117		O 44
-110
140Syracuse-3
-103		U 44
-110
02:30 PM
137Wisconsin-1
-115		O 42½
-110
138Minnesota+1
-105		U 42½
-110
 
A couple random notes. Bama gone for it on 4th down just twice this year (1-2). Next fewest, as you might expect, is Iowa with six (4-6). Only others in single digits are Wyo, UGA, and Kentucky, which has amazingly converted just once in nine tries. Notably, Houston is just 4-22.

Boston College has gone for it 35 times (5th most) and converted at a rate of 74.3% (eighth best). That's 26 conversions, the most in the country. Texas Tech is second with 22.

BC faces Miami at home on Saturday in a noon game. Forecast says temperature at kickoff will be 33, rising to 34 before dropping to 31 by the end of the game.

In games at BC over the years (going back to 1991), Miami is 1-6 ATS in games on or after October 18. BC is 6-0 ATS as a dog, covering those 6 by an average of 11 points per game.

The only Miami cover was the one occasion when BC was favored (by 14.5 points!), and Miami pulled off the upset, winning 28-14 on a cold day with temperatures in the 30's. It was a letdown spot after BC had clinched the ACC Atlantic division title with a win at Death Valley the week before. That was 2007.

The most recent late-season meeting on Chestnut Hill was in 2018, when BC beat Miami 27-14 as +3.5.
 
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M.W. said:
A couple random notes. Bama gone for it on 4th down just twice this year (1-2). Next fewest, as you might expect, is Iowa with six (4-6). Only others in single digits are Wyo, UGA, and Kentucky, which has amazingly converted just once in nine tries. Notably, Houston is just 4-22.

Boston College has gone for it 35 times (5th most) and converted at a rate of 74.3% (eighth best). That's 26 conversions, the most in the country. Texas Tech is second with 22.

BC faces Miami at home on Saturday in a noon game. Forecast says temperature at kickoff will be 33, rising to 34 before dropping to 31 by the end of the game.

In games at BC over the years (going back to 1991), Miami is 1-6 ATS in games on or after October 18. BC is 6-0 ATS as a dog, covering those 6 by an average of 11 points per game.

The only Miami cover was the one occasion when BC was favored (by 14.5 points!), and Miami pulled off the upset, winning 28-14 on a cold day with temperatures in the 30's. It was a letdown spot after BC had clinched the ACC Atlantic division title with a win at Death Valley the week before. That was 2007.

The most recent late-season meeting on Chestnut Hill was in 2018, when BC beat Miami 27-14 as +3.5.
Click to expand...
Under in BC/Miami.
 
M.W. said:
A couple random notes. Bama gone for it on 4th down just twice this year (1-2). Next fewest, as you might expect, is Iowa with six (4-6). Only others in single digits are Wyo, UGA, and Kentucky, which has amazingly converted just once in nine tries. Notably, Houston is just 4-22.

Boston College has gone for it 35 times (5th most) and converted at a rate of 74.3% (eighth best). That's 26 conversions, the most in the country. Texas Tech is second with 22.

BC faces Miami at home on Saturday in a noon game. Forecast says temperature at kickoff will be 33, rising to 34 before dropping to 31 by the end of the game.

In games at BC over the years (going back to 1991), Miami is 1-6 ATS in games on or after October 18. BC is 6-0 ATS as a dog, covering those 6 by an average of 11 points per game.

The only Miami cover was the one occasion when BC was favored (by 14.5 points!), and Miami pulled off the upset, winning 28-14 on a cold day with temperatures in the 30's. It was a letdown spot after BC had clinched the ACC Atlantic division title with a win at Death Valley the week before. That was 2007.

The most recent late-season meeting on Chestnut Hill was in 2018, when BC beat Miami 27-14 as +3.5.
Click to expand...
For Alabama, my guess is that judging by how many 3rd and longs we have had, especially in the first 8 games, most of our 4th downs have been 4th and long
 
gps_3 said:
For Alabama, my guess is that judging by how many 3rd and longs we have had, especially in the first 8 games, most of our 4th downs have been 4th and long
Click to expand...
A lot of it is just being good enough to score a TD before you reach fourth down and good enough not to need to take chances. Reduce variance, and the better team
wins.

But it is an amazing number. Last year, just two teams (Wyo and Neb) had fewer than 11 4th-down attempts. Last year Alabama was 9-15.
 
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I don't have time this week to do a MACtion thread. I'm on EMich +5.5 as well as the first half under 26 in Western/BG. Like the Cats Friday.
 
Marsski said:
I don't have time this week to do a MACtion thread. I'm on EMich +5.5 as well as the first half under 26 in Western/BG. Like the Cats Friday.
Click to expand...

Have we ever had a scenario where Toledo needs to hang a 50 spot to get a NYE birth? CMU is awful. They lost to WMU and appear to have quit on their slob of a coach.
 
Inspekdah said:
Have we ever had a scenario where Toledo needs to hang a 50 spot to get a NYE birth? CMU is awful. They lost to WMU and appear to have quit on their slob of a coach.
Click to expand...
Do they realistically have a shot? Liberty is #25 in the playoff projections and has two bad teams left if Tulane stumbles....I'm wondering whether Toledo is going to play their starters. I feel like Candle has pulled his starters in situations like this before but couldn't find any confirmation of that...I'm staying off of it but I agree that CMU is putrid.
 
Marsski said:
Do they realistically have a shot? Liberty is #25 in the playoff projections and has two bad teams left if Tulane stumbles....I'm wondering whether Toledo is going to play their starters. I feel like Candle has pulled his starters in situations like this before but couldn't find any confirmation of that...I'm staying off of it but I agree that CMU is putrid.
Click to expand...

They’re ranked 23 in the AP. Outside shot at playoffs for sure but a shot nonetheless. Tulane could lose Saturday but Liberty you’re right likely won’t but still have 2 games.
 
That's a couple days ago and not like books don't read twit

Wonder if there is a story or if it's just a natural move down with all the under money coming in
 
Iowa/Neb total down to 24.5

That’s easily the lowest total ever, almost have to take the over just on principle.
 
Boise seems to be on a roll and AF is dead. They can’t throw the ball without their starter at all. They don’t even try. Boise good against the run and have seen the option before. AF seems like they’re moving on mentally after being undefeated. Over 7 sucks but I don’t know how AF keeps it close without getting risky. I have watched a lot of their games and they are just missing too much at QB and RB right now. Great ML partner for Boise.
 
Gotta work on my car today so not much time for the games but I gotta get involved with mizzou wr’s of course!! Think this a week we can go back at the main man Luther Burden ov 91.5 rec. i like cook passing total also but that might be more dependent on Arkansas offense being able to put up points and the d limiting Schrader on the ground, this really the toughest part of capping the tigers games for me, it has went incredibly well but this seems to be the biggest key on what kind of game we will get.

Drinkowitz perfectly happy to limit the passing if the run game popping but even more so if the d is holding the other team down he will really take the ball out of Cook’s hands which super annoying! I don’t think that will effect Burden numbers as it typically doesn’t, Luther was dealing w a injury he played thru but was clearly not himself some games, he looked much healthier last week tho and gets a fantastic matchup against a Arkansas secondary who allows a lot of big passing plays and some big numbers to wr’s!! Last chance outside a bowl game to get some the good money we been banking on tigers wrs this year, think the time is right to go back to Burden 1 more time.

Luther Burden ov 92.5 rec.

Damn thing went up a yard and juice since I started writing this. Lol. That ok I think he does for over 100, just wasn’t feeling enough value on the alt numbers to bother but I like him over 120 for real.
 
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