Week 13 Discussion Thread

[VirginiaCavs]

Nov 21 Tue 2023

06:00 PM
103	Bowling Green	-1 -115		O 54 -110
104	Western Michigan	+1 -105		U 54 -110

06:30 PM
101	Eastern Michigan	+7 -115		O 40½ -110
102	Buffalo	-7 -105		U 40½ -110

Nov 23 Thu 2023

06:30 PM
111	Mississippi	-11½ -110		O 56½ -110
112	Mississippi State	+11½ -110		U 56½ -110

Nov 24 Fri 2023

11:00 AM
115	Miami Florida	-9 -115		O 48½ -110
116	Boston College	+9 -105		U 48½ -110

11:00 AM
117	Ohio	-14 -110		O 41 -110
118	Akron	+14 -110		U 41 -110

11:00 AM
119	Toledo	-11 -115		O 56 -110
120	Central Michigan	+11 -105		U 56 -110

11:00 AM
121	Iowa	+1½ -105		O 27½ -105
122	Nebraska	-1½ -115		U 27½ -115

11:00 AM
123	TCU	+13 -110		O 63 -110
124	Oklahoma+1 Markets	-13 -110		U 63 -110

11:00 AM
173	Memphis	-10 -116		O 65½ -110
174	Temple	+10 -104		U 65½ -110

02:30 PM
125	Utah State	-9½ -110		O 62½ -110
126	New Mexico	+9½ -110		U 62½ -110

03:00 PM
127	Missouri	-7 -115		O 54½ -110
128	Arkansas	+7 -105		U 54½ -110

03:00 PM
129	Air Force	+6 -115		O 45 -110
130	Boise State	-6 -105		U 45 -110

06:30 PM
131	Texas Tech	+14½ -110		O 52½ -110
132	Texas	-14½ -110		U 52½ -110

06:30 PM
133	Penn State	-20 -110		O 43½ -110
134	Michigan State	+20 -110		U 43½ -110

07:30 PM
135	Oregon State	+14 -115		O 63 -110
136	Oregon	-14 -105		U 63 -110

Nov 25 Sat 2023

11:00 AM
141	Ohio State	+4 -110		O 46 -110
142	Michigan+1 Markets	-4 -110		U 46 -110

01:00 PM
139	Wake Forest	+3 -117		O 44 -110
140	Syracuse	-3 -103		U 44 -110

02:30 PM
137	Wisconsin	-1 -115		O 42½ -110
138	Minnesota	+1 -105		U 42½ -110

 

[B.A.R.]

Reminder that PSU MSU is at Ford Field.

 

[M.W.]

Early plays:

Clemson -7, -23.5, and -29.5
Miss/MSU under 56/56.5 and 47
Wake/Syr under 44

 

[M.W.]

A couple random notes. Bama gone for it on 4th down just twice this year (1-2). Next fewest, as you might expect, is Iowa with six (4-6). Only others in single digits are Wyo, UGA, and Kentucky, which has amazingly converted just once in nine tries. Notably, Houston is just 4-22.

Boston College has gone for it 35 times (5th most) and converted at a rate of 74.3% (eighth best). That's 26 conversions, the most in the country. Texas Tech is second with 22.

BC faces Miami at home on Saturday in a noon game. Forecast says temperature at kickoff will be 33, rising to 34 before dropping to 31 by the end of the game.

In games at BC over the years (going back to 1991), Miami is 1-6 ATS in games on or after October 18. BC is 6-0 ATS as a dog, covering those 6 by an average of 11 points per game.

The only Miami cover was the one occasion when BC was favored (by 14.5 points!), and Miami pulled off the upset, winning 28-14 on a cold day with temperatures in the 30's. It was a letdown spot after BC had clinched the ACC Atlantic division title with a win at Death Valley the week before. That was 2007.

The most recent late-season meeting on Chestnut Hill was in 2018, when BC beat Miami 27-14 as +3.5.

 

[Grovehard]

A couple random notes. Bama gone for it on 4th down just twice this year (1-2). Next fewest, as you might expect, is Iowa with six (4-6). Only others in single digits are Wyo, UGA, and Kentucky, which has amazingly converted just once in nine tries. Notably, Houston is just 4-22.

Boston College has gone for it 35 times (5th most) and converted at a rate of 74.3% (eighth best). That's 26 conversions, the most in the country. Texas Tech is second with 22.

BC faces Miami at home on Saturday in a noon game. Forecast says temperature at kickoff will be 33, rising to 34 before dropping to 31 by the end of the game.

In games at BC over the years (going back to 1991), Miami is 1-6 ATS in games on or after October 18. BC is 6-0 ATS as a dog, covering those 6 by an average of 11 points per game.

The only Miami cover was the one occasion when BC was favored (by 14.5 points!), and Miami pulled off the upset, winning 28-14 on a cold day with temperatures in the 30's. It was a letdown spot after BC had clinched the ACC Atlantic division title with a win at Death Valley the week before. That was 2007.

The most recent late-season meeting on Chestnut Hill was in 2018, when BC beat Miami 27-14 as +3.5.

Under in BC/Miami.

 

[Frank Costanza]

It's week 13+, but still cool.

 

[gps_3]

A couple random notes. Bama gone for it on 4th down just twice this year (1-2). Next fewest, as you might expect, is Iowa with six (4-6). Only others in single digits are Wyo, UGA, and Kentucky, which has amazingly converted just once in nine tries. Notably, Houston is just 4-22.

Boston College has gone for it 35 times (5th most) and converted at a rate of 74.3% (eighth best). That's 26 conversions, the most in the country. Texas Tech is second with 22.

BC faces Miami at home on Saturday in a noon game. Forecast says temperature at kickoff will be 33, rising to 34 before dropping to 31 by the end of the game.

In games at BC over the years (going back to 1991), Miami is 1-6 ATS in games on or after October 18. BC is 6-0 ATS as a dog, covering those 6 by an average of 11 points per game.

The only Miami cover was the one occasion when BC was favored (by 14.5 points!), and Miami pulled off the upset, winning 28-14 on a cold day with temperatures in the 30's. It was a letdown spot after BC had clinched the ACC Atlantic division title with a win at Death Valley the week before. That was 2007.

The most recent late-season meeting on Chestnut Hill was in 2018, when BC beat Miami 27-14 as +3.5.

For Alabama, my guess is that judging by how many 3rd and longs we have had, especially in the first 8 games, most of our 4th downs have been 4th and long

 

[M.W.]

For Alabama, my guess is that judging by how many 3rd and longs we have had, especially in the first 8 games, most of our 4th downs have been 4th and long

A lot of it is just being good enough to score a TD before you reach fourth down and good enough not to need to take chances. Reduce variance, and the better team
wins.

But it is an amazing number. Last year, just two teams (Wyo and Neb) had fewer than 11 4th-down attempts. Last year Alabama was 9-15.

 

[Marsski]

I don't have time this week to do a MACtion thread. I'm on EMich +5.5 as well as the first half under 26 in Western/BG. Like the Cats Friday.

 

[Inspekdah]

I don't have time this week to do a MACtion thread. I'm on EMich +5.5 as well as the first half under 26 in Western/BG. Like the Cats Friday.

Have we ever had a scenario where Toledo needs to hang a 50 spot to get a NYE birth? CMU is awful. They lost to WMU and appear to have quit on their slob of a coach.

 

[Marsski]

Have we ever had a scenario where Toledo needs to hang a 50 spot to get a NYE birth? CMU is awful. They lost to WMU and appear to have quit on their slob of a coach.

Do they realistically have a shot? Liberty is #25 in the playoff projections and has two bad teams left if Tulane stumbles....I'm wondering whether Toledo is going to play their starters. I feel like Candle has pulled his starters in situations like this before but couldn't find any confirmation of that...I'm staying off of it but I agree that CMU is putrid.

 

[Inspekdah]

Do they realistically have a shot? Liberty is #25 in the playoff projections and has two bad teams left if Tulane stumbles....I'm wondering whether Toledo is going to play their starters. I feel like Candle has pulled his starters in situations like this before but couldn't find any confirmation of that...I'm staying off of it but I agree that CMU is putrid.

They’re ranked 23 in the AP. Outside shot at playoffs for sure but a shot nonetheless. Tulane could lose Saturday but Liberty you’re right likely won’t but still have 2 games.

 

[texsn95]

Dart status for tonight? Line down 3 pts from yesterday.

 

[bones]

Dart status for tonight? Line down 3 pts from yesterday.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1726897743900426281

 

[KJ]

That's a couple days ago and not like books don't read twit

Wonder if there is a story or if it's just a natural move down with all the under money coming in

 

[jedi ninja]

Iowa/Neb total down to 24.5

That’s easily the lowest total ever, almost have to take the over just on principle.

 

[Inspekdah]

Boise seems to be on a roll and AF is dead. They can’t throw the ball without their starter at all. They don’t even try. Boise good against the run and have seen the option before. AF seems like they’re moving on mentally after being undefeated. Over 7 sucks but I don’t know how AF keeps it close without getting risky. I have watched a lot of their games and they are just missing too much at QB and RB right now. Great ML partner for Boise.

 

[M.W.]

Iowa/Neb total down to 24.5

That’s easily the lowest total ever, almost have to take the over just on principle.

Tease it down to 18.5? Those would be the most valuable six points you'll ever buy.

 

[twinkie13]

Tease it down to 18.5? Those would be the most valuable six points you'll ever buy.

Except when it’s 9-6 lol

 

[2daBank]

Gotta work on my car today so not much time for the games but I gotta get involved with mizzou wr’s of course!! Think this a week we can go back at the main man Luther Burden ov 91.5 rec. i like cook passing total also but that might be more dependent on Arkansas offense being able to put up points and the d limiting Schrader on the ground, this really the toughest part of capping the tigers games for me, it has went incredibly well but this seems to be the biggest key on what kind of game we will get.

Drinkowitz perfectly happy to limit the passing if the run game popping but even more so if the d is holding the other team down he will really take the ball out of Cook’s hands which super annoying! I don’t think that will effect Burden numbers as it typically doesn’t, Luther was dealing w a injury he played thru but was clearly not himself some games, he looked much healthier last week tho and gets a fantastic matchup against a Arkansas secondary who allows a lot of big passing plays and some big numbers to wr’s!! Last chance outside a bowl game to get some the good money we been banking on tigers wrs this year, think the time is right to go back to Burden 1 more time.

Luther Burden ov 92.5 rec.

Damn thing went up a yard and juice since I started writing this. Lol. That ok I think he does for over 100, just wasn’t feeling enough value on the alt numbers to bother but I like him over 120 for real.