Week 13 Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Nov 22 Tue 2022

06:00 PM
101Bowling Green+7½
-113		O 56½
-110
102Ohio+1 Markets-7½
-107		U 56½
-110
06:00 PM
103Ball State+2½
+100		O 44
-110
104Miami Ohio+1 Markets-2½
-120		U 44
-110
Nov 24 Thu 2022

06:00 PM
111Mississippi State+3
-110		O 63
-108
112Mississippi+1 Markets-3
-110		U 63
-112
Nov 25 Fri 2022

11:00 AM
115Baylor+8
-110		O 56
-110
116Texas+1 Markets-8
-110		U 56
-110
11:00 AM
117Central Michigan+1½
-105		O 54
-112
118Eastern Michigan+1 Markets-1½
-115		U 54
-108
11:00 AM
119Toledo-8
-110		O 53
-110
120Western Michigan+1 Markets+8
-110		U 53
-110
11:00 AM
121Utah State+16
-118		O 52½
-110
122Boise State+1 Markets-16
-102		U 52½
-110
11:00 AM
163Tulane+2½
-115		O 47
-108
164Cincinnati+1 Markets-2½
-105		U 47
-112
02:00 PM
123Arizona State+4½
-105		O 63½
-110
124Arizona+1 Markets-4½
-115		U 63½
-110
02:30 PM
113NC State+6½
-109		O 56½
-110
114North Carolina+1 Markets-6½
-111		U 56½
-110
02:30 PM
127Arkansas-4
-105		O 56
-110
128Missouri+1 Markets+4
-115		U 56
-110
02:30 PM
129New Mexico+7½
-114		O 35
-110
130Colorado State+1 Markets-7½
-106		U 35
-110
03:00 PM
131Nebraska+10½
-110		O 37½
-110
132Iowa+1 Markets-10½
-110		U 37½
-110
03:30 PM
133UCLA-9
-111		O 61
-110
134California+1 Markets+9
-109		U 61
-110
06:30 PM
135Florida+9½
-107		O 57½
-110
136Florida State+1 Markets-9½
-113		U 57½
-110
09:00 PM
137Wyoming+14½
-110		O 50½
-110
138Fresno State+1 Markets-14½
-110		U 50½
-110
Nov 26 Sat 2022

11:00 AM
145Georgia Tech+34½
-110		O 49
-110
146Georgia+1 Markets-34½
-110		U 49
-110
11:00 AM
153Army-19½
-108		O 45½
-110
154Massachusetts+1 Markets+19½
-112		U 45½
-110
11:00 AM
155Rutgers+14
-107		O 49
-110
156Maryland+1 Markets-14
-113		U 49
-110
11:00 AM
157South Carolina+15
-120		O 50½
-112
158Clemson+1 Markets-15
+100		U 50½
-108
11:00 AM
165New Mexico State+23½
-107		O 50
-110
166Liberty+1 Markets-23½
-113		U 50
-110
11:00 AM
175Coastal Carolina+14
-118		O 54
-110
176James Madison+1 Markets-14
-102		U 54
-110
11:00 AM
177Georgia State+6
-110		O 49
-110
178Marshall+1 Markets-6
-110		U 49
-110
11:00 AM
179Western Kentucky-7
-110		O 61½
-110
180Florida Atlantic+1 Markets+7
-110		U 61½
-110
11:00 AM
181Old Dominion+17
-110		O 47½
-110
182South Alabama+1 Markets-17
-110		U 47½
-110
11:00 AM
187Michigan+7½
-110		O 57
-110
188Ohio State+1 Markets-7½
-110		U 57
-110
11:00 AM
215West Virginia+8
-110		O 67
-110
216Oklahoma State+1 Markets-8
-110		U 67
-110
12:00 PM
169East Carolina-13
-110		O 51
-110
170Temple+1 Markets+13
-110		U 51
-110
12:00 PM
171Kent State+3
-115		O 53½
-110
172Buffalo+1 Markets-3
-105		U 53½
-110
12:30 PM
183Akron+10
-110		O 54½
-110
184Northern Illinois+1 Markets-10
-110		U 54½
-110
01:00 PM
193Rice+13½
-107		O 62
-110
194North Texas+1 Markets-13½
-113		U 62
-110
02:00 PM
159Louisville+3½
-110		O 43½
-105
160Kentucky+1 Markets-3½
-110		U 43½
-115
02:00 PM
225Troy-13½
-110		O 46½
-110
226Arkansas State+1 Markets+13½
-110		U 46½
-110
02:30 PM
125Oregon-3½
-105		O 56
-110
126Oregon State+1 Markets+3½
-115		U 56
-110
02:30 PM
141Purdue-10
-110		O 56
-110
142Indiana+1 Markets+10
-110		U 56
-110
02:30 PM
149Wake Forest-3½
-110		O 66½
-110
150Duke+1 Markets+3½
-110		U 66½
-110
02:30 PM
185Minnesota+3
-105		O 34½
-110
186Wisconsin+1 Markets-3
-115		U 34½
-110
02:30 PM
189Illinois-12½
-110		O 37
-110
190Northwestern+1 Markets+12½
-110		U 37
-110
02:30 PM
205Memphis+4
-110		O 72½
-110
206SMU+1 Markets-4
-110		U 72½
-110
02:30 PM
209UAB-17
-107		O 56½
-110
210Louisiana Tech+1 Markets+17
-113		U 56½
-110
02:30 PM
217Hawaii+14
-110		O 56½
-110
218San Jose State+1 Markets-14
-110		U 56½
-110
02:30 PM
221Auburn+21
-105		O 48½
-110
222Alabama+1 Markets-21
-115		U 48½
-110
02:30 PM
223UTEP+18
-115		O 57
-110
224UTSA+1 Markets-18
-105		U 57
-110
03:00 PM
161Michigan State+17½
-103		O 53½
-110
162Penn State+1 Markets-17½
-117		U 53½
-110
03:00 PM
191Utah-30
-110		O 53
-110
192Colorado+1 Markets+30
-110		U 53
-110
03:00 PM
207Iowa State+10
-105		O 47½
-110
208TCU+1 Markets-10
-115		U 47½
-110
04:00 PM
227Southern Miss-3½
-108		O 52
-110
228UL Monroe+1 Markets+3½
-112		U 52
-110
04:00 PM
229UL Lafayette-5
-110		O 44½
-110
230Texas State+1 Markets+5
-110		U 44½
-110
05:00 PM
173Appalachian State-4½
-120		O 61
-110
174Georgia Southern+1 Markets+4½
+100		U 61
-110
05:00 PM
197Nevada+13
-110		O 51
-110
198UNLV+1 Markets-13
-110		U 51
-110
05:00 PM
231Middle Tennessee State-20
+100		O 55½
-110
232Florida International+1 Markets+20
-120		U 55½
-110
06:00 PM
147Virginia+1
-113		O 40
-110
148Virginia Tech-1
-107		U 40
-110
06:00 PM
167Central Florida-18½
-110		O 70
-110
168South Florida+1 Markets+18½
-110		U 70
-110
06:00 PM
213LSU-9
-110		O 47
-110
214Texas A&M+1 Markets+9
-110		U 47
-110
06:30 PM
143Syracuse-10½
-110		O 45½
-110
144Boston College+1 Markets+10½
-110		U 45½
-110
06:30 PM
199Notre Dame+5½
-115		O 62
-110
200USC+1 Markets-5½
-105		U 62
-110
06:30 PM
203Tulsa+12
-110		O 68½
-110
204Houston+1 Markets-12
-110		U 68½
-110
06:30 PM
211Oklahoma-1
-115		O 64½
-110
212Texas Tech+1 Markets+1
-105		U 64½
-110
06:30 PM
219Tennessee-14½
-108		O 66½
-110
220Vanderbilt+1 Markets+14½
-112		U 66½
-110
07:00 PM
139Kansas+12
-105		O 63
-110
140Kansas State+1 Markets-12
-115		U 63
-110
07:00 PM
151Pittsburgh-6½
-115		O 44½
-110
152Miami Florida+1 Markets+6½
-105		U 44½
-110
08:00 PM
233Air Force-1
-110		O 43½
-110
234San Diego State+1 Markets+1
-110		U 43½
-110
09:30 PM
201Washington-1½
-110		O 58
-110
202Washington State+1 Markets+1½
-110		U 58
-110
10:00 PM
195BYU-6½
-110		O 58
-110
196Stanford+1 Markets+6½
-110		U 58
-110
 
Last edited:
CSU -7 already locked i. CSU is no prize but ffs getting under double digits at home vs the worst team in the country right now.
 
I fell victim to CSU yesterday. But as I said leading up to that game somewhere why I liked them, they haven't played bad ball in 5 of their last 6 coming into yesterday (Boise was the exception). Air Force was just better, but CSU kept their head in the game and outscored AF 12-7 in the 2H. I'm sure both these teams really value trying to get a season ending win, the difference is that CSU has shows some ability. I might worry about a slow 1H, but if that happens the 2H obviously will be a great opportunity for the Rams given what New Mex has done this year.
 
Fresno has secured their place in the MWC Title game.

Wyoming was eliminated last week. Might be a difficult loss for Wyoming to get up from considering how it all went down at the end. But Fresno with eyes to the following week and their overall health vs an always tough Wyoming team +14.5 pts?
 
Boise also clinched, so might be interesting how they play it as well. Utah St has won 3 straight since their bye and 5 of their last 6 overall.
 
Toledo has clinched, as they had last week. I'm sure they will rest Finn again to get him fully healthy for the MAC Title game. Back up is good enough to win though. Fans super pissed at their coach, again. Western is no gem, but they're still playing hard.
 
Arizona State has won the last 5 in the series.

2017 42-30 +2
2018 41-40 -1.5
2019 24-14 -13.5
2020 70-7 -11.5
2021 38-15 -20

First time Arizona is the better team since 2017 when they were pretty equal (both finished 7-6).

Zona O and de Laura was real bad last week vs Wazzou. Oregon State slowly but surely crushed ASU.

Situational says Arizona although I am afraid of the ASU rushing O which was pretty good even last week and that is one advantage they will have playing poor Zona run D.
 
How do we feel about Missouri in general? Really not that bad right? Only trailed Tennessee 24-28 in the 3rd (but lost 24-66). Could've beat UK, beat S Car and was more impressive than the score I thought, beat Vandy ugly, played ok at FL, played Georgia tough, should've beat Auburn ... is a one game turnaround enough to like Arkansas lay pts on the road here?
 
How might UCLA respond? I know some fans hate the other school, although I don't know if either of the teams or players would consider it a rivalry...especially since both schools just faced their #1 rival last week. For Cal, the thrill of victory and for UCLA the agony of defeat. Could be tough for UCLA to flush that loss. Fortunately Cal football is bad, that might be enough.
 
I was talking last week how the Florida staff might use the ULL-FSU game film to some advantage in game prepping this week. I didn't expect they'd lose to Vandy! Jeesh. FSU looks unstoppable of late.

One important consideration though. Florida State has benefitted from some poor offenses lately. ULL, just over matched, but even vs Sun Belt a pretty inconsistent offense at best. Syracuse had been lost on O really since September, Miami imploded. GT that managed 9 on UVA the prior week scored 16 on the Noles. That is a very incompetent run of offenses faces, or shall I say feasted upon by Seminole D.

Might that be a different, Florida has some offense they can challenge FSU in a way that Noles haven't been challenged in a month? I think it might be.
 
www.nola.com

If Tulane beats Cincinnati on Friday, Wave will host American Athletic Conference title tilt

If Tulane football beats Cincinnati on Friday, Green Wave will host the American Athletic Conference title tilt at Yulman Stadium
www.nola.com www.nola.com

If Tulane (9-2, 6-1) wins at two-time defending champion Cincinnati (9-2, 6-1) on Friday (11 a.m., ABC), it will be the outright regular season AAC champion and host the Dec. 3 title tilt at Yulman Stadium.
Click to expand...
If Tulane loses, the Wave would need Houston to beat Tulsa at home Saturday night, creating a three-way tie for second with the Wave and UCF, assuming the Knights get past 1-10 South Florida on Saturday as expected.

In that scenario, head-to-head results would be inapplicable because UCF and Houston did not play each other. The tiebreaker would be the teams’ composite average in four computer rankings — Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley and Wolfe.
Click to expand...
If Houston falls to Tulsa, Tulane would lose a two-way tie with UCF based on their head-to-head result.
Click to expand...

Cincinnati has a 32 game home win streak

The two-time defending AAC champions will clinch a spot in their fourth straight AAC championship game with a win against Tulane. If Cincinnati beats the Green Wave, the AAC title game will be at Nippert for the third straight year.
Click to expand...
 
s--k said:
How do we feel about Missouri in general? Really not that bad right? Only trailed Tennessee 24-28 in the 3rd (but lost 24-66). Could've beat UK, beat S Car and was more impressive than the score I thought, beat Vandy ugly, played ok at FL, played Georgia tough, should've beat Auburn ... is a one game turnaround enough to like Arkansas lay pts on the road here?
Click to expand...

Love mizzou here personally
 
s--k said:
How might UCLA respond? I know some fans hate the other school, although I don't know if either of the teams or players would consider it a rivalry...especially since both schools just faced their #1 rival last week. For Cal, the thrill of victory and for UCLA the agony of defeat. Could be tough for UCLA to flush that loss. Fortunately Cal football is bad, that might be enough.
Click to expand...
Save me the search….has it always been this way?
 
twinkie13 said:
Save me the search….has it always been this way?
Click to expand...

UCLA finishes their seasons with either Cal, Stanford or USC.

2021 at USC 62-33 +3.5, vs Cal 42-14 +6.5
2020 vs USC 38-43 +3, vs Stanford 47-48 -6.5
2019 at USC 35-52 +13.5, vs Cal 18-28 -1
2018 vs USC 34-27 +3, vs Stanford 42-49 +6.5 (Chip Kelly 1st Yr)
2017 at USC 23-28 +15.5, vs Cal 30-27 -7
2016 vs USC 14-36 +14, at Cal 10-36 -3
2015 at Utah 17-9 Pk, at USC 21-40 +3
2014 vs USC 38-20 -4, vs Stanford 10-31 -5.5
2013 vs ASU 33-38 +2.5, at USC 35-14 +3.5
2012 USC 38-28 +4, vs Stanford 17-35 +3 **already locked South, would face Stanford the next week guaranteed** (Jim Mora 1st Yr)

So using the above, Chip Kelly is 1-3 straight up and ATS the week after USC. 1-1 vs Cal. UCLA historically is 2-5 straight up 2014 + 2016-2021 when their finale is the week after playing USC, 1-6 ATS. It's not fair to count 2012 because that game meant nothing and UCLA didn't need it or care, and really didn't want to reveal gameplan or injury to players.
 
s--k said:
www.toledoblade.com

Briggs: Bowling Green football could get all-time shaft from the MAC

It may well prove a moot point, so long as the Mid-American Conference gets the tidy outcome it no doubt prefers and the Bowling Green football team loses ...
www.toledoblade.com www.toledoblade.com

For those who believe in conspiracies or outside influence impacting games
Click to expand...
Hope BG comes put pissed because I hit the Over 23.5 big...after already having Ohio -6.5, Over 30.5 and Over 54 (MACtion going to kill my bankroll)

:bigcry: (But, who the hell am I kidding...after raising two kids and one wife, mid-week meaningful football with an adult beverage is nirvana.)
 
If the Ohio O was at full strength, this would've been a bad matchup for BGSU. The Buffalo game was a comedy of errors, but my point was going to be the better balanced offenses in the MAC have had their way with them...Vs Buff 7-38, Vs Kent 6-40...Toledo should've been, could've been on paper, but BGSU did allow 35 pts and 482 yards. Akron scored 28 and 408y. Vs offenses that are struggling or not very capable, BG D is good enough to clamp down (MiaO, WM and CM before they got hot).

I would expect this version of the Ohio O to be an ok matchup for BG. But we don't know a ton about this backup QB outside of last week's play. If he can pass with accuracy then BG is going to yield pts and yards again. If he is more of a runner and kind of the possession type throws, BG should be good vs that and focusing on the run.
 
The defensive improvement from Ohio is very remarkable from where they were in September. And this BG O has thrown up some stinkers. The Ohio D could win this game for them regardless of who their QB is.
 
Ball St beat reporter is doing volleyball, no update on Carson Steele
 
Although nobody would think of the egg bowl as a defensive game w these 2 coaches it has went under every year since they been going at it w games usually only getting to around 50. Lane had a better qb for the previous meetings, I don’t think super highly of dart as a thrower and think messy st d is good enough against the run to slow Rebs offense. Rebs have been really good keeping the air raid in check only giving up about 20 a game against leach. Total took some early under money but has creept back up to 61 now, I would guess with the reps of these 2 teams it prob takes over money closer we get to the game but I like under where it at now. Seems pretty likely to me it played in the mid to upper 20s, as long we can avoid ot I think it stays somewhere between 51-56.
 
s--k said:
Boise also clinched, so might be interesting how they play it as well. Utah St has won 3 straight since their bye and 5 of their last 6 overall.
Click to expand...

Im tempted by the points in both those mw games, dog is def the only side I would play. Not super confident Utah st will be able to score but Still think 17 a lot.
 
What ya’ll think of Tulane:cincy? I want to like tulane, they easy to root for but I think ecu matched up better w cincy and I needed the points to cash them, not getting enough w Tulane to matter (most likely gotta win). Tulane needs to have success on the ground and cincy run d has been really good, if Tulane has to pass they don’t protect very well and cincy can still get after the qb. I thought ecu matched up so much better and cincy still managed to win that game, hate to say it but cincy laying only -2 at home might have some real value, maybe because Tulane so easy to root for?
 
My last week I can do this but here's UNM 2h numbers.

3rdq scoring last 8 games.
Opponents 104
UNM 6

4thq scoring last 8 games
Opponents 72
UNM 6

Good for 176-12. UNM hasn't scored a 2h touchdown since Utep on Sept 17.

CSU is no prize. They haven't scored 20 points in all year but ffs these numbers are hard to go against. You can get CSU -3.5 2h now and -.5 3q at some books now.
 
JFC looking at CSU 2h, they aren't much better. Looks like they have 3 2h touchdowns since Sept 17.
 

Oxford MS​

Thu 24 | Night​

52°
67%
ENE 4 mph
Steady light rain this evening. Showers continuing overnight. Low 52F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 70%.
 
2daBank said:
What ya’ll think of Tulane:cincy? I want to like tulane, they easy to root for but I think ecu matched up better w cincy and I needed the points to cash them, not getting enough w Tulane to matter (most likely gotta win). Tulane needs to have success on the ground and cincy run d has been really good, if Tulane has to pass they don’t protect very well and cincy can still get after the qb. I thought ecu matched up so much better and cincy still managed to win that game, hate to say it but cincy laying only -2 at home might have some real value, maybe because Tulane so easy to root for?
Click to expand...

ECU should've won the Cincy game (454-310 total yard edge, 22-13 first downs, Cincy went 3-and-out on six 2H possessions). So if ECU would've beat Cincy how would it effect your thinking on Tulane? Tulane overall and scoring D better than ECU's.

Cincy was really bad 2H vs Navy at home as well.
 
I find it really hard to lay pts with CSU although that is the team I would want. I might take a little CSU 1H and see (I don't bet live). If they don't cover the 1H, there will be a better spread to take them on in the 2H. Or if they cover the 1H, I can evaluate and just walk away or put it back out there and see if they can do it again 2H.
 
2daBank said:
Yea, gotta like utep,I want to say utsa was in exact same spot last year having already clinched hosting the conf champ game and got beat down in this spot.
Click to expand...

I would like UTEP with the pts.

I do get hesitant when something happens last year that burns a team to assume it happens again. North Texas beat UTSA last year the week before their CUSA Title game. Ruined their perfect season. I read where teams have events like that happen, Holy Cross beat UConn last year, came home and got beat the following week. They made sure it didn't happen this year after they beat Buffalo, they talked about learning from last year and preparing right. Just the example that was top of mind. I'm sure that while knowing what they have at stake next week, UTSA will still want to play well and win their home finale because last year they lost the week before and I'm sure nobody there wants it to happen again.
 
s--k said:
ECU should've won the Cincy game (454-310 total yard edge, 22-13 first downs, Cincy went 3-and-out on six 2H possessions). So if ECU would've beat Cincy how would it effect your thinking on Tulane? Tulane overall and scoring D better than ECU's.

Cincy was really bad 2H vs Navy at home as well.
Click to expand...

Wouldn’t effect much (well except the fact I dunno if this game would decide who goes to conf championship if cincy lost? That would prob have some effect) . I know ecu outplayed them, I was annoyed all game! Lol. It really just about how ecu matched up w them compared to Tulane who I don’t think has the same favorable matchups. Ecu held big edge on 3rd down, they great protecting the passer, they don’t count on their run game as heavily. I just don’t think Tulane matches up very well, laying less than a fg feels short to me and think it there cause as I said Tulane easy to root for. I don’t pay attention to any those bet percentage sites but I assume Tulane be pretty popular for a dog. I’d root for them if I didnt think cincy was the right play!
 
s--k said:
I would like UTEP with the pts.

I do get hesitant when something happens last year that burns a team to assume it happens again. North Texas beat UTSA last year the week before their CUSA Title game. Ruined their perfect season. I read where teams have events like that happen, Holy Cross beat UConn last year, came home and got beat the following week. They made sure it didn't happen this year after they beat Buffalo, they talked about learning from last year and preparing right. Just the example that was top of mind. I'm sure that while knowing what they have at stake next week, UTSA will still want to play well and win their home finale because last year they lost the week before and I'm sure nobody there wants it to happen again.
Click to expand...
That was at North Texas too. This one is at home. I think it's less likely to just roll over at home. Having said that I played Utep +17.
 
bones said:

Oxford MS​

Thu 24 | Night​

52°
67%
ENE 4 mph
Steady light rain this evening. Showers continuing overnight. Low 52F. Winds light and variable. Chance of rain 70%.
Click to expand...
Yep. Typical Egg Bowl weather tonight. Cold and rainy.
 
CPA-hole said:
That was at North Texas too. This one is at home. I think it's less likely to just roll over at home. Having said that I played Utep +17.
Click to expand...

Im not saying utep wins , I kinda doubt they do, they have lost to some bad teams that woulda got them bowl eligible. Don’t think they now gonna knock off a good team cause they “need it”, it just a lot of points for what should be the more motivated team.
 
2daBank said:
Wouldn’t effect much (well except the fact I dunno if this game would decide who goes to conf championship if cincy lost? That would prob have some effect) . I know ecu outplayed them, I was annoyed all game! Lol. It really just about how ecu matched up w them compared to Tulane who I don’t think has the same favorable matchups. Ecu held big edge on 3rd down, they great protecting the passer, they don’t count on their run game as heavily. I just don’t think Tulane matches up very well, laying less than a fg feels short to me and think it there cause as I said Tulane easy to root for. I don’t pay attention to any those bet percentage sites but I assume Tulane be pretty popular for a dog. I’d root for them if I didnt think cincy was the right play!
Click to expand...

Yeah, gut tells me Tulane, but I don't like the line and don't like that Cincinnati has been in these games before, playoff-esque games. Tulane so far has been in one such game when the teams were positioning in the league standings and they lost badly to UCF.
 
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